2020 Patriots off season

If I'm dropping down from 23 I want an extra pick in the top four rounds, not just moving other picks up. Mainly because we know the chances are Bill will ship a pick for a future one.

The Patterson trade comes to mind, even though we got less value, we got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th round pick.

Early 20s picks always seem to have players drop to them, it's just do we value the player or can we get a big return from another team for that player.

I've had a feeling the experts like they always do have been too high on the QBs and we are finally starting to see that in a few mocks. I don't buy three go in the top 6, two have some big question marks and a lot of teams have drafted QBs recently.

 I think that the number of question marks coming into this season are so long and diverse that it is likely a bit of a bridge year.

The virus effect on season? Will their even be a season. When does it start. When will they start training.
QB performance?
TE ?
WR ?
LB ?
OL with no Dante?
Kicker ?

So many questions to be answered and so little cap space to be helpful makes this a year to try and answer many with draft picks and focus more on 2021.
When it comes to the virus the risk on the season is twofold. If they lift restrictions too early with the hope that it is mostly behind us the significant risk is it comes back and kills most of the season with further social distancing. If they play it safe and delay lifting restrictions the training starts when? With all the turnover the Pats are going to need all the training they can get. Seems to me it is an opportune time to reload thru the draft if possible. It will be interesting.

I've seen some updated draft value charts. Can't find the one I was thinking of (I thought it was Warren Sharp but didn't find it on the google), but this:



from Rich Hill at Pats Pulpit takes into account actual prices paid.


www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

I figured it out, Chase Stewart at Football Perspective had the other version I was thinking of. But his is older at this point than Rich Hill's.

www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/ From 2012

And his review of his own work 7 years later

www.footballperspective.com/revisiting-the-draft-value-chart/

One interesting takeaway, which I wonder how the new CBA and its expanded Veteran Benefit will affect:

What you see a lot more of now than before is like the Cooks trade Houston sends a second, gets back a fourth. That equals basically a third, yet teams would rather trade the second and get the fourth than just send the third. They don't lose picks that way.

If I'm Houston I love that type of trade, not so much if I'm the Rams. I'd rather have the third and fourth round picks. Yet that's just me, the drafts a crapshoot. I want as many picks as I can get, espically in the top five rounds.

It's why if we trade our first I want extra higher round picks, not just upgrading our picks. I want more chances, not just ungraded chances.

The fourth round pick Houston is receiving is for the 2022 draft. Picks are roughly downgraded one round for every year you have to wait, so the 2022 4th is closer in value to a 2020 late 5th or 6th round pick. As far as the 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and 4th, the Rams could always use that pick to trade down and add more picks. According to the Rich Hill draft value chart, the 2nd rounder is worth 95.73 pts, while the Texans 3rd and 4th (originally from Miami) would've net a combined 73.16 pts. I do agree that the 3rd round is the real sweet spot value wise in this draft, especially the beginning/middle of the 3rd (the quality may drop off a bit by the end of the 3rd where the Pats comp picks sit). The other value will come in the form of UDFA's, there will be a ton of draftable guys available after this draft.

I mean trading Hopkins for a second isn't great value. Yet he wasn't going to report without a new deal, even with three years left on his old deal that had him as the #7 paid WR.

So I get not liking the value, but I also get trading him. I'm not paying a possession receiver, even one as good as Hopkins 20 or more million when he has three years left on his deal. I get a coach not wanting to deal with a Bell like situation when the whole off-season and maybe even into the games is about when Hopkins will report.

I don't mind the Cooks trade with his Salary at $12 million, yet it isn't the best fit either. He's another smaller speed receiver when they already have two of them. We'll have to see what they do. At the same time they now have three darn good deep threats to open up the field.

I understand that and like RJP explained, it's fair to ponder that deal as an inevitability. They probably had to deal him. Still, it's hard to deny they inexplicably sold low on Hopkins since it wasn't a Mookie situation yet and overpaid for a guy that looked positively toast last season. BoB is a chaos agent.

Rookie receivers almost always take time to make big impacts. Sure you can find examples but it’s a low likelihood.

I bet they still take one, this was just a hedge type move to make sure they can compete next year and keep Watson happy.

Didn't that come out after the trade was done?

That's the thing about Bill you just never know, he could do anything. Recent picks at RB and WR in the first fully cemented that.

I don't know everything about Love, yet he certainly fits the profile of guys the draft experts over hype. They do it with all QBs. Mahomes just won a Superbowl and now a QB like him seems to be getting a lot of attention.

The funny thing is Love is kinda like Stidham. Had a much better year before the last one when they both lost a lot of talent. Love likely has a little more upside, yet also threw a lot more interceptions and comes from a small school. While Stidham played at Baylor and Auburn. Both are athletic QBs that can throw on the run and make plays with their feet. Love is more upside and potential, where Stidham was a high IQ type guy. Draft Magazines had Stidham as a 2-3 guy that once had the look of franchise type QB, Love is 1-2 with a slightly higher ceiling but a lot more bust potential.

Just my two cents because you never know with Bill, I don't see Love at 23 though.