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Post by p23w on Mar 8, 2020 18:00:00 GMT -5
Tough attitude here. Did you ever have cause to say this to Pedroia? Probably not. BTW, Downs miscues took place on the "dirt", the "lawn" in Northport was short and very hard, hope you take better care of yours. I bet his hat was slightly askew too Don't you just hate when they do that. Deserves prison time imo Felony time or misdemeanor... what da' ya' think? as an aside my lawn stinks. Things have gone awry since my landscaper brother moved out. Sad. Probably the worst lawn on the block It's just about weed and feed time.... don't forget to aerate.
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Post by p23w on Mar 8, 2020 18:07:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the roster move updates. Got the "feeling" that this team is somewhat better prepared at this point in time, when compared to last year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 8, 2020 19:27:50 GMT -5
If Lucroy continues to look like his old self, Plawecki would be expendable.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 8, 2020 19:52:51 GMT -5
I did see Lucroys bases loaded missile today but it looks like Plawecki is having a better spring overall
It’s of course like sub-20 ABs each tho so it’s tough to draw much from it lol
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Mar 8, 2020 19:54:52 GMT -5
Really surprised they’re not giving Houck more of a stay. Has he not looked good? Hadn’t seen that, thanks. That doesn’t sound good, I hope he’s not hurt.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 8, 2020 20:04:12 GMT -5
I did see Lucroys bases loaded missile today but it looks like Plawecki is having a better spring overall It’s of course like sub-20 ABs each tho so it’s tough to draw much from it lol True but, I'm not so sure it wouldn't be more of a case of their histories over their spring performance with the big question being health. Plaweki is your basic reasonably high profile prospect that never reached projections and wasn't tendered by the Mets. Lucroy is your basic All-Star bat who ran into health issues that are hypothetically resolved. It's been a while though since he was healthy so there are questions there as well. If Lucroy is healthy and back to old form, he would potentially be one hell of a trade deadline chip. ADD: Plawecki is a major league contract with no options. Lucroy is a minor league contract. If they went with Lucroy, they would have to DFA or release Plawecki.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 8, 2020 20:58:45 GMT -5
I did see Lucroys bases loaded missile today but it looks like Plawecki is having a better spring overall It’s of course like sub-20 ABs each tho so it’s tough to draw much from it lol True but, I'm not so sure it wouldn't be more of a case of their histories over their spring performance with the big question being health. Plaweki is your basic reasonably high profile prospect that never reached projections and wasn't tendered by the Mets. Lucroy is your basic All-Star bat who ran into health issues that are hypothetically resolved. It's been a while though since he was healthy so there are questions there as well. If Lucroy is healthy and back to old form, he would potentially be one hell of a trade deadline chip. ADD: Plawecki is a major league contract with no options. Lucroy is a minor league contract. If they went with Lucroy, they would have to DFA or release Plawecki. With Lucroy believe there is a possibility of some upside once again to his former self. Not the AS self, but enough to not be a major let down whenever C-Vaz isn't playing like last year whenever leon came in and was an automatic out. Like you said about Plawecki.. He's one of the many failed prospects who never quite realized their potential. Sure, he can play defense at close to leon level, but is another empty hole in the lineup comes around and why believe Lucroy is a better gamble at this point, exposing him to outright waivers or not.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 8, 2020 23:56:18 GMT -5
True but, I'm not so sure it wouldn't be more of a case of their histories over their spring performance with the big question being health. Plaweki is your basic reasonably high profile prospect that never reached projections and wasn't tendered by the Mets. Lucroy is your basic All-Star bat who ran into health issues that are hypothetically resolved. It's been a while though since he was healthy so there are questions there as well. If Lucroy is healthy and back to old form, he would potentially be one hell of a trade deadline chip. ADD: Plawecki is a major league contract with no options. Lucroy is a minor league contract. If they went with Lucroy, they would have to DFA or release Plawecki. With Lucroy believe there is a possibility of some upside once again to his former self. Not the AS self, but enough to not be a major let down whenever C-Vaz isn't playing like last year whenever leon came in and was an automatic out. Like you said about Plawecki.. He's one of the many failed prospects who never quite realized their potential. Sure, he can play defense at close to leon level, but is another empty hole in the lineup comes around and why believe Lucroy is a better gamble at this point, exposing him to outright waivers or not. Actually, Plawecki is projected by Steamer to have an 84 wRC+, which is in a 3-way tie for 7th best among backup catchers, and 32nd among all regular and backup catchers.
And yes, these projections pass the eye test, because Sandy Leon ranks 29th and 59th, respectively.
There are a lot of things we can debate here, but what to do with backup catcher is not one of them. They have one of the best backup catchers in MLB, and a reclamation project that might be striking gold ... or might be Grady Sizemore.
Lucroy goes to Pawtucket to catch regularly, and if improved health has really made him back into the guy he used to be, you deal with that excess of talent at the proper time.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 9, 2020 0:19:48 GMT -5
In the last few days they cut 5 of the 9 contenders for the extender / follower ("bulk" / "length") role, at season's start. And they need two of those guys now (or a starter and an extender).
We're now down to Ryan Weber, Brian Johnson, Chris Mazza, and Matt Hall.
Mazza was good last year as a AAA starter, but I'm not sure how well that translates to MLB.
Hall was excellent two years ago in that role and got killed last year. That they traded for him suggests they saw some difference they could work on.
Neither has pitched much or well in ST, and I think they'd prefer to keep Johnson in AAA as depth, so I still think they acquire someone to fill this role.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Mar 9, 2020 4:45:15 GMT -5
In the last few days they cut 5 of the 9 contenders for the extender / follower ("bulk" / "length") role, at season's start. And they need two of those guys now (or a starter and an extender).
We're now down to Ryan Weber, Brian Johnson, Chris Mazza, and Matt Hall.
Mazza was good last year as a AAA starter, but I'm not sure how well that translates to MLB.
Hall was excellent two years ago in that role and got killed last year. That they traded for him suggests they saw some difference they could work on.
Neither has pitched much or well in ST, and I think they'd prefer to keep Johnson in AAA as depth, so I still think they acquire someone to fill this role.
I'm thinking they trade one of their catchers or Lin for someone who is out of options and is a borderline candidate to make a roster. Just makes too much sense not to happen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 9, 2020 7:50:07 GMT -5
In the last few days they cut 5 of the 9 contenders for the extender / follower ("bulk" / "length") role, at season's start. And they need two of those guys now (or a starter and an extender).
We're now down to Ryan Weber, Brian Johnson, Chris Mazza, and Matt Hall. Mazza was good last year as a AAA starter, but I'm not sure how well that translates to MLB. Hall was excellent two years ago in that role and got killed last year. That they traded for him suggests they saw some difference they could work on. Neither has pitched much or well in ST, and I think they'd prefer to keep Johnson in AAA as depth, so I still think they acquire someone to fill this role.
I'm thinking they trade one of their catchers or Lin for someone who is out of options and is a borderline candidate to make a roster. Just makes too much sense not to happen. CVaz is the only catcher that's tradeable and Lin isn't going to return a starter or anything we need more than the depth Lin provides.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 9, 2020 12:00:00 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 9, 2020 13:42:09 GMT -5
The increased velocity is really interesting to me. I wonder if it was a mechanical change, the grip maybe, getting some distance from aches and pains, or something else. That arm has very little wear and tear on it. If he does have that increase to go with the curve and the slider then yes, he could be a piece of the pitching puzzle.
Add: ...it might even make his changeup more effective. There's been so little difference between it and the fastball that the pitch has been nearly useless. He hardly bothers using it.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 9, 2020 13:47:05 GMT -5
Just embarassing that we trade the best player in baseball for two guys we then cut in spring training. :mad: What? They are prospects going back to their teams, not cut.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 9, 2020 13:52:24 GMT -5
Just came here to post that. Johnson at 93 could be a very decent pitcher. It's when he was at 86-88 that every mistake would get smashed. He needs the velocity to play off his decent curve.
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Post by Addam603 on Mar 9, 2020 21:10:09 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 9, 2020 21:23:07 GMT -5
Battling for a rotation spot??? Dudes gonna be battling for the ball on opening day at this rate It is encouraging to see though- especially since this is a guy they seem to particularly like after some tweaks. Hopefully these good results hold. It would go a long way towards helping if he can eat up 100+ innings of so-so ball
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 9, 2020 21:55:11 GMT -5
THAT is a shocker to me Chris. I remember when BJ was drafted and the buzz was he could sit low 90's and reach back for 93-95mph when needed and that never happened. Seem to recall around 93 was all he ever had and if he can get to that again, after 7y when he has to and pitch consistently with 91-2? he might be able to work as a back end starter. My fears are he was "shot" with a "hot" gun like my bushnell that reads 1-2mph hot often.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 9, 2020 22:23:14 GMT -5
THAT is a shocker to me Chris. I remember when BJ was drafted and the buzz was he could sit low 90's and reach back for 93-95mph when needed and that never happened. Seem to recall around 93 was all he ever had and if he can get to that again, after 7y when he has to and pitch consistently with 91-2? he might be able to work as a back end starter. My fears are he was "shot" with a "hot" gun like my bushnell that reads 1-2mph hot often. I hear you. OTOH, I was watching a recent game when he pitched and to my eye, it appeared that he had stiffened the FB. I had that thought at the time not knowing any gun readings. I remember the scouting reports as you do but then talked with his brother at a Florida minor league game following Brian being drafted who, in answer to my velocity inquiry, said no that Brian threw about 90. We all know older pitchers generally lose velocity. If a pickup here is real AND sustained, has he visited Madame Ruth?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 9, 2020 22:46:04 GMT -5
A few of those older guys have seemingly found a little more life in the fastball. Morton comes to mind and Verlander has regained some of his velocity. That's why I asked earlier. It's not unknown but its usually driven by some kind of change in mechanics or recovery from injury.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 10, 2020 3:16:49 GMT -5
Just came here to post that. Johnson at 93 could be a very decent pitcher. It's when he was at 86-88 that every mistake would get smashed. He needs the velocity to play off his decent curve. I came here to see if anyone was talking about Johnson. Umm ... yes?
If he can stay healthy, at 93 he's better than even money to be a 3 starter, 4 on a contender.
But wait, there's more (which I just discovered).
In his career, he's allowed:
.299 / .372 / .536 to 1 through 4 hitters and
.259 / .318 / .406 to 5 through 9.
This is a big split (although Taylor, Workman, Walden, and Brice are all bigger).
You may well ask, is that exacerbated by his low velo? How did he fare in 2018, when he was at his best?
.294 / .360 / .541, essentially the same .232 / .300 / .348
(That's a .310 / .239 EqA split. MLB was .275 / .253.)
The extra velo doesn't help him against elite hitters. It allows him to do near-dominate lesser ones. That line from 2018 is actually fractionally better than Matt Barnes' career line against 5-9, .221 / .307 / .350.
You could use a 1-inning opener for him and expect him to pitch like an OK #2 into the sixth. And if you only need your opener to go 1, you can use almost anybody. Hembree in his career has been as tough on 1-4 hitters as Barnes or Walden, tougher than Workman, Brice, or Taylor ... he's been non-elite because all of those guys have been much tougher on 5-9 hitters.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 10, 2020 4:30:59 GMT -5
That looks like some rosy numbers Eric and no offense, but I can't think of anyone I know of who sees BJ as a #2. That sounds like something Boras would write up and put in one of those silk covered books for his Ollie Perez type players.
BJ just has to have "some" velocity to make his mediocre garbage work and keep hitters off balance. I've never been a fan of his since drafted.. Granted and seeing no exceptional secondary pitches, to go along with the sub 90's FB last season shows how susceptible he is.
That extra 2-3 ticks makes a difference when he doesn't hide the ball well and hitters get a good look at it most of the way to the plate. he's just got to have "something" special secondary wise above average, or that little extra hump on his FB to be a 4-5 on this team. A 2? 3? Man, that's a big stretch.
My point of view, then once again.. I've been critical of him since the day of the draft.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 10, 2020 9:14:39 GMT -5
That looks like some rosy numbers Eric and no offense, but I can't think of anyone I know of who sees BJ as a #2. That sounds like something Boras would write up and put in one of those silk covered books for his Ollie Perez type players. BJ just has to have "some" velocity to make his mediocre garbage work and keep hitters off balance. I've never been a fan of his since drafted.. Granted and seeing no exceptional secondary pitches, to go along with the sub 90's FB last season shows how susceptible he is. That extra 2-3 ticks makes a difference when he doesn't hide the ball well and hitters get a good look at it most of the way to the plate. he's just got to have "something" special secondary wise above average, or that little extra hump on his FB to be a 4-5 on this team. A 2? 3? Man, that's a big stretch. My point of view, then once again.. I've been critical of him since the day of the draft. Johnson in his career has faced 1-4 hitters 50.1% of the time (381 PA vs. 380, excluding IBB and SH, and pitchers hitting 9th), even though they're 44% of the hitters. That's just a fluke of his usage, but it distorts his stats a bit.
The idea here is to reduce that to as little as 29%. Any pitcher who can avoid facing good hitters is going to be much more effective, even if he doesn't change a thing. I mean, if you could somehow get Johnson to face AA hitters, you'd get ace results.
Nobody notices the degree to which a pitcher has to faces good hitters, or does relatively better or worse against them. That's the fun of these numbers.
Here's Josh Taylor in his sole season:
.317 / .380 / .540 versus 1 through 4 hitters .179 / .246 / .232 versus 5 through 9
That's a .317 EqA allowed versus .185. That's the worst career performance against good hitters of any of the 10 main relief candidates, and the best versus 5-9 hitters.
But he only faced 1-4 guys 37% of the time (72 vs. 122 PA), 16% less often than expected, as opposed to 13% more often for Johnson. We'd be a lot less excited about him as a bullpen piece if he had faced them 51%.
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Post by nomar on Mar 10, 2020 9:41:51 GMT -5
If Lucroy continues to look like his old self, Plawecki would be expendable. I actually like Plawecki as a buy low candidate. His playing time has been so sparing since his prospect days that he only has about 1.6-1.8 seasons worth of PAs under his belt. He's a pull hitter with a good FB rate that managed a have a 4.3% bump in Contact% last year. I don't think he's a star by any means, but I think he's a lot closer to a league average hitter than people realize. And we have him for 3 years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 10:17:42 GMT -5
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