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Verdugo’s Back Injury Revealed to be a Stress Fracture
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2020 17:54:33 GMT -5
Well, as early as the middle of last season I identified Verdugo as the one and only guy you would trade Mookie for (that the other team might conceivably give you). Already a first-division starter at age 23, an above-average defender in CF or in Fenway's RF, with five years of control. Even though I don't like the trade in principle, and I'm not that high on Verdugo on top of that, a lot of people still don't seem to grok how lucky the Red Sox actually were to get a player as good, young, and established as Verdugo in return for one (1) year of Betts. That there's a little bit of injury risk attached to Verdugo is part of the reason he was available at all. I'm not trying to say the injury is a huge deal, it very likely isn't, but still the price would presumably be a bit higher if he wasn't attached to a fractured spine.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 15, 2020 17:57:31 GMT -5
Are you kidding me? This is in no way good news. Stress fractures are no joke. I've suffered a couple, never one in the spine. I hope they are ultra cautious with this. Yes it is good news. As has been mentioned above, Stress fractures in the vertebrae are almost never chronic or recurring. They are typically acute. It's a better diagnoses than say moderate herniations, bulging or ruptured discs or degeneration etc. Especially since most of the treatment time has been as a Dodger. Well, I can tell you for a fact that you a wrong with your prognosis. The fact that most of his treatment time was with the Dodgers and he was the one player the Dodgers were most willing to part with. Does that give you a tad of hesitation? Please don't be a fool.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 15, 2020 18:00:10 GMT -5
Yes it is good news. As has been mentioned above, Stress fractures in the vertebrae are almost never chronic or recurring. They are typically acute. It's a better diagnoses than say moderate herniations, bulging or ruptured discs or degeneration etc. Especially since most of the treatment time has been as a Dodger. Well, I can tell you for a fact that you a wrong with your prognosis. The fact that most of his treatment time was with the Dodgers and he was the one player the Dodgers were most willing to part with. Does that give you a tad of hesitation? Please don't be a fool. ” The majority of patients with spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis are free from pain and other symptoms after treatment. In most cases, sports and other activities can be resumed gradually with few complications or recurrences.” (American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons) “ Most people are able to return to their previous level of sports and exercise without pain.” (Johns Hopkins University)
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Post by caseytins on Feb 15, 2020 18:03:36 GMT -5
Well, I can tell you for a fact that you a wrong with your prognosis. The fact that most of his treatment time was with the Dodgers and he was the one player the Dodgers were most willing to part with. Does that give you a tad of hesitation? Please don't be a fool. ” The majority of patients with spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis are free from pain and other symptoms after treatment. In most cases, sports and other activities can be resumed gradually with few complications or recurrences.” (American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons) “ Most people are able to return to their previous level of sports and exercise without pain.” (Johns Hopkins University) That just proves my point. Thanks, Adam.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 15, 2020 18:09:37 GMT -5
That just proves my point. Thanks, Adam. Possibly I’m misunderstanding you, but your last two posts suggest a very odd notion of what a “fact” is and what “proof” is. Your arguments seem not at all persuasive, and yet you seem absolutely certain that you are right. Very puzzling. I don't know what the facts are behind Verdugo's injury. I do have the proof of how these things heal. Make sense?
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Post by caseytins on Feb 15, 2020 18:16:36 GMT -5
I can't wait for Pillar to hit 8 homeruns in April to prove everyone wrong.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 15, 2020 18:49:47 GMT -5
” The majority of patients with spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis are free from pain and other symptoms after treatment. In most cases, sports and other activities can be resumed gradually with few complications or recurrences.” (American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons) “ Most people are able to return to their previous level of sports and exercise without pain.” (Johns Hopkins University) That just proves my point. Thanks, Adam. Curious how you read that and claimed that it proved your point? From what I gathered is that they’re saying there’s about a 95% chance he never has a recurring problem from this?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 15, 2020 18:58:08 GMT -5
Possibly I’m misunderstanding you, but your last two posts suggest a very odd notion of what a “fact” is and what “proof” is. Your arguments seem not at all persuasive, and yet you seem absolutely certain that you are right. Very puzzling. I don't know what the facts are behind Verdugo's injury. I do have the proof of how these things heal. Make sense? No, nothing makes sense. I have personal proof that these injuries heal easily with enough time and never bother you again.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 15, 2020 19:00:10 GMT -5
And they had other options with teams with healthy players. Well, as early as the middle of last season I identified Verdugo as the one and only guy you would trade Mookie for (that the other team might conceivably give you). Already a first-division starter at age 23, an above-average defender in CF or in Fenway's RF, with five years of control.
So, no.
I've been reading a lot of philosophy recently, and the technical term for this sort of incorrect argument is ... damn it, I can never get these two straight. It's either talking out of your ass or being a whiny little ... person.
And you may have been right in your analysis middle of last year. Later in the year he was disabled by a stress fracture in his back. Had you known that earlier would you have arrived at the same conclusion? The team apparently knew about it when it pulled the trigger on the trade. I’d be interested in knowing whether it had requested other healthy players in his stead. Now it appears he won’t make the roster when the season opens, so it had to go out and get Pillar (a good OF, btw).
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 15, 2020 19:21:16 GMT -5
Well, as early as the middle of last season I identified Verdugo as the one and only guy you would trade Mookie for (that the other team might conceivably give you). Already a first-division starter at age 23, an above-average defender in CF or in Fenway's RF, with five years of control.
So, no.
I've been reading a lot of philosophy recently, and the technical term for this sort of incorrect argument is ... damn it, I can never get these two straight. It's either talking out of your ass or being a whiny little ... person.
And you may have been right in your analysis middle of last year. Later in the year he was disabled by a stress fracture in his back. Had you known that earlier would you have arrived at the same conclusion? The team apparently knew about it when it pulled the trigger on the trade. I’d be interested in knowing whether it had requested other healthy players in his stead. Now it appears he won’t make the roster when the season opens, so it had to go out and get Pillar (a good OF, btw). Pillar makes sense regardless if all 3 were completely healthy. He’s just going to get more at bats than what they would like.
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Post by soxaddict on Feb 15, 2020 20:55:53 GMT -5
Well, as early as the middle of last season I identified Verdugo as the one and only guy you would trade Mookie for (that the other team might conceivably give you). Already a first-division starter at age 23, an above-average defender in CF or in Fenway's RF, with five years of control. Even though I don't like the trade in principle, and I'm not that high on Verdugo on top of that, a lot of people still don't seem to grok how lucky the Red Sox actually were to get a player as good, young, and established as Verdugo in return for one (1) year of Betts. That there's a little bit of injury risk attached to Verdugo is part of the reason he was available at all. I'm not trying to say the injury is a huge deal, it very likely isn't, but still the price would presumably be a bit higher if he wasn't attached to a fractured spine. Agreed. He most likely wouldn’t have been available otherwise.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,873
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Post by cdj on Feb 15, 2020 21:18:43 GMT -5
” The majority of patients with spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis are free from pain and other symptoms after treatment. In most cases, sports and other activities can be resumed gradually with few complications or recurrences.” (American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons) “ Most people are able to return to their previous level of sports and exercise without pain.” (Johns Hopkins University) That just proves my point. Thanks, Adam. Yes everybody else is wrong, you’re of course the correct one. Yeah again, this is a significantly better diagnosis than a disc injury or stenosis. Treat him carefully this one time and he’ll be fine going forward
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 15, 2020 23:42:47 GMT -5
I believe that's because you feel that the season is already punted without Mookie. Whereas most of us believe (correctly, of course) that the team can absolutely contend with Mookie replaced by someone good.
Kevin Pillar is replacing Sam Travis on the roster.
Pillar had 377 PA after he changed his swing, and had 1.7 fWAR. Eerily, Alex Verdugo had 377 PA on the season, and had 3.1 WAR.
That's 4.8 WAR in 754 PA.
Mookie Betts and Sam Travis combined for 6.0 WAR in 863 PA.
That's a downgrade of 0.5 WAR (after pro-rating the Verdugo / Pillar PA total).
To say this is dwarfed by the uncertainty in performance by Sale and Eovaldi is a huge understatement. The season has always been about whether those guys pitch up to their talents, or down to their injuries. Period.
That you personally are pessimistic about them falls a little bit short of being a rational reason to run the team as if they had no chance to contend.
I totally agree with your assessment. In a way, the Price loss is worse this year (only) than Mookie.... I think they can score runs no matter what. But the problem is, this team was behind last year and fell further behind this off season. Their problem was pitching, and they let Porcello go and traded Price, and got back Perez. So it isn’t really about an even trade in right so much as the big move didn’t improve this year’s team when it had to. So, yeah, I’d say it is a form of punting with an eye towards the long term. I don’t even think that is controversial... was this a trade meant to improve them this year? Clearly not. And all I’m saying is if you are looking long term, getting lower level prospects is a legitimate alternative. Don’t be a jerk. You said Verdugo was the ONLY option. I’m saying, CORRECTLY, well, there are alternate approaches, and that is not even dismissing the one they took. There's a very big value to being competitive this year. If you substitute a pair of nice A-ball prospects for Verdugo, you're losing something like 2.5 wins or more when Puello ends up with Verdugo's roster spot. And the A-ball prospects are not going to project to be as good as Verdugo, anyway. I never thought that substitution was desirable and still don't, so we may just have to agree to disagree.
In this offseason, the starting pitching did not fall further behind 2019. You are combing the results of last year with the expectation for this year that you're getting from 2018. They made some moves that may have reduced that expectation, but the logic "last year the starting pitching sucked, and then they swapped Price and Porcello for Perez, so it's even worse" is obviously crazy-wrong.
Price was 4.4 WAR in 2018, 1.8 last year. Perez should be a significant upgrade over last year, and the $9.5M million they're saving is proving to be the thing that keeps them under the limit.
Porcello went from 3.1 to 1.2. Again, we can expect to get more value than last year.
And again, both of those outcomes will pale next to Sale going 4.0, 5.4, 1.0, and Eovaldi's 2.5 with clear 4.0+ upside, 0.1, . It's not in the least bit unreasonable to hope for a 7 WAR improvement from just those two guys.
Here's a fun exercise everyone should try: compare this roster to the one that plowed through the 2018 post-season like the greatest team ever. I'm actually doing that right now, and I'll put up the results in the Post-Mookie thread.
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Post by manfred on Feb 16, 2020 0:09:16 GMT -5
I totally agree with your assessment. In a way, the Price loss is worse this year (only) than Mookie.... I think they can score runs no matter what. But the problem is, this team was behind last year and fell further behind this off season. Their problem was pitching, and they let Porcello go and traded Price, and got back Perez. So it isn’t really about an even trade in right so much as the big move didn’t improve this year’s team when it had to. So, yeah, I’d say it is a form of punting with an eye towards the long term. I don’t even think that is controversial... was this a trade meant to improve them this year? Clearly not. And all I’m saying is if you are looking long term, getting lower level prospects is a legitimate alternative. Don’t be a jerk. You said Verdugo was the ONLY option. I’m saying, CORRECTLY, well, there are alternate approaches, and that is not even dismissing the one they took. There's a very big value to being competitive this year. If you substitute a pair of nice A-ball prospects for Verdugo, you're losing something like 2.5 wins or more when Puello ends up with Verdugo's roster spot. And the A-ball prospects are not going to project to be as good as Verdugo, anyway. I never thought that substitution was desirable and still don't, so we may just have to agree to disagree.
In this offseason, the starting pitching did not fall further behind 2019. You are combing the results of last year with the expectation for this year that you're getting from 2018. They made some moves that may have reduced that expectation, but the logic "last year the starting pitching sucked, and then they swapped Price and Porcello for Perez, so it's even worse" is obviously crazy-wrong.
Price was 4.4 WAR in 2018, 1.8 last year. Perez should be a significant upgrade over last year, and the $9.5M million they're saving is proving to be the thing that keeps them under the limit.
Porcello went from 3.1 to 1.2. Again, we can expect to get more value than last year.
And again, both of those outcomes will pale next to Sale going 4.0, 5.4, 1.0, and Eovaldi's 2.5 with clear 4.0+ upside, 0.1, . It's not in the least bit unreasonable to hope for a 7 WAR improvement from just those two guys.
Here's a fun exercise everyone should try: compare this roster to the one that plowed through the 2018 post-season like the greatest team ever. I'm actually doing that right now, and I'll put up the results in the Post-Mookie thread.
Last season was a s—tshow, but what I am comparing is the staff at this point then vs. now. It was impossible to know that they would be collectively bad. But it seems hard to say that Perez will be a “significant” upgrade from Price’s 1.8 WAR.... Perez has beaten that once by .5 WAR. So he’d have to explode. But put differently: do you feel better about Sale in Feb ‘19 or Feb ‘20? Eovaldi? Perez than Price? An opener vs. Porcello? The only slot I feel better about this year than a year ago is ERod. The game is played on the field, so I think we all were a bit stunned how bad things went. I don’t think it would be nearly as surprising this year. I hope it works, but they need to have everything go right... righter in some cases than it has ever gone. Serious question: why are you so high on Perez that you expect a career year? What do you expect him to do differently?
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Post by patford on Feb 16, 2020 11:06:58 GMT -5
Sorry if I missed it but is there any report on how the stress fracture occurred ? A collision with an outfield wall ? A dive on turf ?
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 16, 2020 11:20:01 GMT -5
Sorry if I missed it but is there any report on how the stress fracture occurred ? A collision with an outfield wall ? A dive on turf ? L5 fractures can happen because of something as small as a bad swing. Verdugo did say that playing on the turf for two days in the Trop made it worse.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 16, 2020 11:57:25 GMT -5
I don't know what the facts are behind Verdugo's injury. I do have the proof of how these things heal. Make sense? No, nothing makes sense. I have personal proof that these injuries heal easily with enough time and never bother you again. I have personal proof that they don't. I'm glad that your body healed okay. An L5 stress fracture is not necessarily a better diagnosis than a disk injury or stenosis. Without getting to look at the scan, I can't say for sure, but I can tell you that this is nothing to be taken lightly.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2020 12:00:05 GMT -5
No, nothing makes sense. I have personal proof that these injuries heal easily with enough time and never bother you again. I have personal proof that they don't. I'm glad that your body healed okay. An L5 stress fracture is not necessarily a better diagnosis than a disk injury or stenosis. Without getting to look at the scan, I can't say for sure, but I can tell you that this is nothing to be taken lightly. Can you give us a reason why we should believe that you know more than the Red Sox do without knowing anything about the injury, without seeing the records and without being a doctor?
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Post by manfred on Feb 16, 2020 12:20:05 GMT -5
I have personal proof that they don't. I'm glad that your body healed okay. An L5 stress fracture is not necessarily a better diagnosis than a disk injury or stenosis. Without getting to look at the scan, I can't say for sure, but I can tell you that this is nothing to be taken lightly. Can you give us a reason why we should believe that you know more than the Red Sox do without knowing anything about the injury, without seeing the records and without being a doctor? As I’ve said before, it is because I was against this trade that I am not worried about the injury long term. That is, Bloom knows this move will have a lot of people pissed, and I don’t think he is foolish — why would he trade for someone who had an injury that might be debilitating? Naw, he wouldn’t take that risk. I am very sure they know this is going to be ok. Or are as sure as anyone can be... anyone can step in a hole rising horses and blow out a knee.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 16, 2020 12:43:24 GMT -5
Can you give us a reason why we should believe that you know more than the Red Sox do without knowing anything about the injury, without seeing the records and without being a doctor? As I’ve said before, it is because I was against this trade that I am not worried about the injury long term. That is, Bloom knows this move will have a lot of people pissed, and I don’t think he is foolish — why would he trade for someone who had an injury that might be debilitating? Naw, he wouldn’t take that risk. I am very sure they know this is going to be ok. Or are as sure as anyone can be... anyone can step in a hole rising horses and blow out a knee. He almost took Graterol. It could be the medicals were worse than previously thought. Sometimes you take high risk with high reward if that's all you can get. With that said, I think he'll be fine.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 16, 2020 13:19:58 GMT -5
Yes it is good news. As has been mentioned above, Stress fractures in the vertebrae are almost never chronic or recurring. They are typically acute. It's a better diagnoses than say moderate herniations, bulging or ruptured discs or degeneration etc. Especially since most of the treatment time has been as a Dodger. Well, I can tell you for a fact that you a wrong with your prognosis. The fact that most of his treatment time was with the Dodgers and he was the one player the Dodgers were most willing to part with. Does that give you a tad of hesitation? Please don't be a fool.Please don't use that language, don't start in. That just gets us into a cycle we'd prefer not to deal with. Thank you.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 16, 2020 13:50:55 GMT -5
Yes it is good news. As has been mentioned above, Stress fractures in the vertebrae are almost never chronic or recurring. They are typically acute. It's a better diagnoses than say moderate herniations, bulging or ruptured discs or degeneration etc. Especially since most of the treatment time has been as a Dodger. Well, I can tell you for a fact that you a wrong with your prognosis. The fact that most of his treatment time was with the Dodgers and he was the one player the Dodgers were most willing to part with. Does that give you a tad of hesitation? Please don't be a fool. If the Dodgers are "all in" to win in 2020 then Betts > Verdugo in 2020. They traded for arguably the 2nd best player in all of baseball for one year to replace a "lesser" player who is starting 2020 hurt. Again, in a year they're selling out a bit to win. You're correlating his back injury as causation when it's probably a fractional (no pun intended) piece of the puzzle. So, what's Jeter Downs problem? I'd have been happy with just Downs for Betts. It's a trade that works out for both teams. If Verdugo is healthy mid-2020 and beyond the Red Sox got 2 very good young players in a retool year. The Dodgers got an aging ace at great value and Mookie Betts for 1 year in a year they're trying to capture a ring. Again, everyone is wondering why you're disagreeing with quoted doctors who are saying it's no big deal after the Red Sox medical staff passed him AFTER they didn't pass another player. I wouldn't call anyone a fool when you're the one swimming up stream here. All I'm asking is why you feel the way you do.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 16, 2020 14:06:58 GMT -5
As I’ve said before, it is because I was against this trade that I am not worried about the injury long term. That is, Bloom knows this move will have a lot of people pissed, and I don’t think he is foolish — why would he trade for someone who had an injury that might be debilitating? Naw, he wouldn’t take that risk. I am very sure they know this is going to be ok. Or are as sure as anyone can be... anyone can step in a hole rising horses and blow out a knee. He almost took Graterol. It could be the medicals were worse than previously thought. Sometimes you take high risk with high reward if that's all you can get. With that said, I think he'll be fine. Right. He... didn't take Graterol. So what does that tell you about his judgment on Verdugo?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 16, 2020 14:36:22 GMT -5
He almost took Graterol. It could be the medicals were worse than previously thought. Sometimes you take high risk with high reward if that's all you can get. With that said, I think he'll be fine. Right. He... didn't take Graterol. So what does that tell you about his judgment on Verdugo? That Verdugo is much more healthy and much less likely to have a recurring, debilitating injury. That they were ok with some risk, but Graterol's medicals were worse than thought. I'm agreeing with everyone else on here.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 16, 2020 14:36:52 GMT -5
I have personal proof that they don't. I'm glad that your body healed okay. An L5 stress fracture is not necessarily a better diagnosis than a disk injury or stenosis. Without getting to look at the scan, I can't say for sure, but I can tell you that this is nothing to be taken lightly. Can you give us a reason why we should believe that you know more than the Red Sox do without knowing anything about the injury, without seeing the records and without being a doctor? No. That is the reason for this debate. If I had the medicals that the Sox do, I would be able to make a much sounder decision. I'm just explaining how my previous experiences with stress fractures indicate that they are nothing to take lightly. With this type of fracture, in particular for a baseball player that needs torque generated from that region, it gives me a lot of pause. I am glad that they are taking it slow with him..
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