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Tigers maybe interested in Bailey?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 18:55:22 GMT -5
Rotoworld.com just stated that the Tigers are looking to trade for a closer given Rondon's struggles in spring training so far. With an abundance of relievers in Boston, and with Andrew Bailey's experience in the 9th inning, I think the sox could send him to detroit for one or two of their young players in return. I was thinking maybe Drew Smyly or Avisail Garcia packaged with another player, such as pitching prospect Casey Crosby. Maybe Rick Porcello, but he hasn't posted an ERA of under 4.50 since 2009, his rookie season, so i wouldn't trade for him. He has little upside. I'd be more inclined to trade for someone young who is major league ready such as Smyly, Garcia, or Crosby. Not Rick Porcello. unfortunately, porcello may be the only one available in this group.
how does this sound?
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Post by bluechip on Mar 5, 2013 19:41:45 GMT -5
I do not see the Tiger's giving up Smyly for Bailey.
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Post by terriblehondo on Mar 5, 2013 20:45:14 GMT -5
Bailey for Porcello I would do that deal in a heartbeat.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 5, 2013 21:10:19 GMT -5
I doubt the Tigers would move Porcello for Bailey, especially with such little depth behind their starting 5. Bailey's trade value is pretty low right now for a pitching with a lot of talent when he's right. While many believe he'll be heavily dangled this spring and possibly traded, it may be worth giving him a month or so in our bullpen to build up some value as a set up man. Of course, he could get injured or get shelled, but I have faith in him. While our pen is deep and full of terrific middle relievers (/ setup men with Tazawa, and I guess Uehara, although he hasn't been used in too many high leverage situations the last year and a half), it's going to take some time for me to trust Bard again, and I also want to see how Hanrahan's command fairs with us.
I don't think we need Porcello. I know depth can't hurt, but getting him and keeping him in the pen as depth really doesn't excite me, especially since it would mean moving an effective reliever out. If Lackey or Felix go down, we have options internally. As for Garcia, I don't think a righty OF bat makes sense at this point in time. If Bailey snatched up a quality mid-high level prospect, than that would make some sense. But I've always wanted to see Bailey get some extended time with us when he's healthy - giving him away for next to nothing just doesn't make sense.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 6, 2013 0:33:23 GMT -5
Sadly, Detroit has pretty uninspiring farm system once you get past Catellanos and Rondon (two guys with pretty big flaws). I really do like Jake Thompson, but I feel like that would be a pipe dream.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 6, 2013 7:24:39 GMT -5
I think the best we would get for Bailey at this time is a Single-A prospect or 2. He's coming of a season of injury with poor results in the few innings he did throw. While he has potential, his value isn't that high right now.
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Post by jdb on Mar 6, 2013 12:13:22 GMT -5
Hopefully Bailey finishes the spring well and increases his value. I would love to add Porcello and start Dubrount in the pen to get his attention. Maybe Bailey (assuming he pitches well the next two weeks) plus one of our extra pen arms could get it done. Maybe they could use Aceves or Morales as a swing guy.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 6, 2013 18:00:43 GMT -5
Bailey for Porcello I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Agree 100% An extreme ground ball pitcher like Porcello would cut his ERA by at least half a run by getting out from in front of that Tigers infield. His strikeout rates and walk rates are both moving in the right direction, he's still only 24, he's been durable but not abused... there's a lot here to like. He's never going to be an ace or anything, but for one year of an oft-injured setup man in his walk year? I don't think the Tigers would do it, but teams have surprised me by trading too much for saves before. |
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Post by jmei on Mar 6, 2013 18:20:15 GMT -5
I agree that you do Porcello-for-Bailey in a heartbeat (especially with Doubront in less than perfect shape and Morales injured), but I want to point out that Bailey is under team control next year (2014) as well.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 7, 2013 7:35:08 GMT -5
Indeed, you are correct sir.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 7, 2013 16:00:55 GMT -5
I was wondering this same situation, but looking more towards midseason. I was thinking if Iggy proves he could take over shortstop we could package Drew with a reliever to Detroit, maybe midseason they would need a C of CF too. There is not a lot of talent in Detroit's farm system but we could pull someone out. I like how our team is set up where we have a good amount of spare pieces we could trade if the season fails/prospects force their way onto the roster
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Post by bluechip on Mar 10, 2013 21:27:56 GMT -5
Bailey for Porcello I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Agree 100% An extreme ground ball pitcher like Porcello would cut his ERA by at least half a run by getting out from in front of that Tigers infield. His strikeout rates and walk rates are both moving in the right direction, he's still only 24, he's been durable but not abused... there's a lot here to like. He's never going to be an ace or anything, but for one year of an oft-injured setup man in his walk year? I don't think the Tigers would do it, but teams have surprised me by trading too much for saves before. This pretty much sums up my feelings. Cabrera is a great great baseball player, but he really has no business playing third base. |
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Post by terriblehondo on Mar 11, 2013 11:42:56 GMT -5
Porcello has looked very good his last 2 starts. I do not think the Tigers will be letting him go unless they really like what they get in return. In other words I do not think Bailey would get it done.
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Post by jdb on Mar 18, 2013 9:42:07 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2013 10:20:14 GMT -5
Considering all the factors, I WOULD trade Bailey for Porcello. Porcello would do better in front of the Boston defense instead the high-school caliber defense of Detroit. Bailey has struggled in recent years, with performance and injury, and Porcello is a young durable starter. I'd do that trade, because there is no guarantee that Lackey will come back strong and there is no such thing as having too much SP depth. I would be happy to get Porcello from Bailey, AS LONG AS IT DOESN'T BLOCK WEBSTER OR RDLR from getting a chance in the bigs
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Post by mainesox on Mar 18, 2013 16:41:33 GMT -5
I just read on Over The Monster that Farrell said the Sox are still looking to add starting pitching. Now, I know that wasn't necessarily in regards to this rumor, but given that context I think this idea makes a lot of sense, at least from the Sox's perspective.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Mar 21, 2013 6:52:24 GMT -5
I agree that you do Porcello-for-Bailey in a heartbeat (especially with Doubront in less than perfect shape and Morales injured), but I want to point out that Bailey is under team control next year (2014) as well. This. |
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Post by jdb on Mar 21, 2013 9:44:52 GMT -5
Seems like alot of smoke on Porcello. I think it would be a huge mistake by the Tigers.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 21, 2013 9:44:54 GMT -5
I don't think Bailey is worth Porcello, but what if we looked at Bailey, Drew, and cash for Porcello and some other depth/prospect. I think this is more poised for a mid season trade, because Drew is hurt and can't be traded till June, and right now our rotation is full, but if someone goes down midseason I think it is a great option.
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Post by jdb on Mar 21, 2013 13:16:20 GMT -5
Jim Bowden tweet.
According to Tigers source the Padres have turned down Porcello for Street and Porcello for Gregorson but talks continue
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2013 18:12:54 GMT -5
Jim Bowden tweet. According to Tigers source the Padres have turned down Porcello for Street and Porcello for Gregorson but talks continue Street? Gregorson? Ummmm.... can we haz Porcello now? |
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 22, 2013 12:04:05 GMT -5
Based on the glowing reports from Keith Law and other scouts, and this sensible post by Andrew Ball at Beyond the Box Score ( link), I think I'd see if the Tigers are interested in Hanrahan or Doubront for Porcello. He would've been the best pitcher on the Red Sox in '12, moving from the Detroit to Red Sox defense is probably worth .25 to .50 on his ERA, and he's still only 24. 180-200 innings of a 3.80-4.20 ERA is worth more than a non-elite 70-inning reliever, and he may improve beyond that. As far as Doubront - he's 14 months older than Porcello, was worse in 2012, and hasn't gotten the same reviews in camp (to say the least). The four years of 10 wins thing is dumb though, and Ball is smart enough to know that. Dombrowski is saying that the Padres rumors aren't true though. There's enough smoke on Porcello to think calls are getting made, but it's still hard to gauge his value. |
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Post by jmei on Mar 22, 2013 12:58:37 GMT -5
I think Doubront has more upside than Porcello, but I agree that Porcello is likely the better present player.
I'd do Hanrahan for Porcello in a heartbeat. Might even throw in a prospect or other bench piece.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 22, 2013 13:25:29 GMT -5
RE: Doubront vs. Porcello
Pretend that Porcello was in the minors from 2009-2011, rather than the majors. Comparing their 2012 straight up, Porcello was the better, more durable pitcher, who beats out Doubront in everything except strikeout rate. Now, I give that strikeout rate is important (arguably THE most important single statistic), but Porcello is younger, and has much better walk numbers. Throw in the fact that Porcello is getting raves at spring training this year, while Doubront is not - not just on performance, which I don't care about, but on stuff and "look" and other things scouts look for - and the fact that Porcello added almost two mph to his fastball last year... I see if the Tigers have any interest. I think some of the upside projected on Doubront has to do with his newness, while the new toy shine is long off of Porcello.
It'd be a challenge trade, and the difference in team control is significant in the other direction. Also, if you think Doubront's ability to miss bats makes him the better bet, that's a fair argument as well. It's not a slam dunk by any means.
Also, too. Getting super-hypothetical, IF something like Hanrahan for Porcello were to go down, moving Doubront to the bullpen makes sense. I think his stuff plays up in the pen, while his lack of durability is less of an issue, and his upside there could be as a closer. In general, guys with big K numbers and a durability concerns are bullpen conversion candidates, and Doubront fits that perfectly.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 22, 2013 18:23:34 GMT -5
RE: Doubront vs. Porcello Pretend that Porcello was in the minors from 2009-2011, rather than the majors. Comparing their 2012 straight up, Porcello was the better, more durable pitcher, who beats out Doubront in everything except strikeout rate. Now, I give that strikeout rate is important (arguably THE most important single statistic), but Porcello is younger, and has much better walk numbers. Throw in the fact that Porcello is getting raves at spring training this year, while Doubront is not - not just on performance, which I don't care about, but on stuff and "look" and other things scouts look for - and the fact that Porcello added almost two mph to his fastball last year... I see if the Tigers have any interest. I think some of the upside projected on Doubront has to do with his newness, while the new toy shine is long off of Porcello. It'd be a challenge trade, and the difference in team control is significant in the other direction. Also, if you think Doubront's ability to miss bats makes him the better bet, that's a fair argument as well. It's not a slam dunk by any means. Also, too. Getting super-hypothetical, IF something like Hanrahan for Porcello were to go down, moving Doubront to the bullpen makes sense. I think his stuff plays up in the pen, while his lack of durability is less of an issue, and his upside there could be as a closer. In general, guys with big K numbers and a durability concerns are bullpen conversion candidates, and Doubront fits that perfectly. Man, I had no idea Porcello was over a year younger than Doubront. Looking at it all now though, it makes sense. I guess it speaks to some of Porcello's advantages over Doubront, such as durability and BB %. That being said, I've kind of thought of Porcello vs. Doubront similar to the Nava/Carp battle (even though both of those guys now look likely to make the team, or at least are no longer directly battling each other). Porcello seems more reliable and consistent, like Nava, where as Doubront, if he can make some critical adjustments, can propel himself into being a powerful force in the middle of a rotation, similar to Carp's offensive potential (OK, maybe that comparison is a bit of a reach). I don't know about Felix in the pen. He definitely has the arm to pitch in various roles, but if he's coming into the pen constantly getting behind in counts, let alone giving up too many walks, it diminishes how much of an asset he could be there. Maybe he could pull a Miller type change, but he's also a lot closer to breaking through as a starter than Miller ever was. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in the rotation this season, but if we're entering mid-season with him still struggling to get deep into games and constantly falling behind instead of pounding in/around the strike zone, then we can consider an upgrade. The predicament now is that an immediate Porcello acquisition would force a move on Doubront that doesn't allow him a chance to improve in the role he has the most potential in. |
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