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Post by incandenza on Mar 7, 2020 15:21:37 GMT -5
How is baseball going to handle the coronavirus situation? Will games be played in front of empty stadiums, as they've already done in Japan? It seems hard to imagine that gatherings of tens of thousands of people will be permitted as the virus continues to spread and the implementation of social distancing precautions accelerates. (Already, conferences of much smaller numbers of people are being cancelled.) Stephanie Springer has some thoughts here:
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 7, 2020 16:57:53 GMT -5
I think we have to be prepared for any eventuality, right up to and including the cancellation of games. While the death rate from COVID-19 is still quite low, it is nonetheless an order of magnitude greater than for the flu. That and the latency - the time it takes for the symptoms to appear if they even do - means that there can be asymptomatic carriers who can infect 2 to 3 people each on average. The US Public Health system has been short-funded for years so every attempt will be made to slow this thing down as capacity is rebuilt. That may very well lead to empty stadiums - no spectators and perhaps no players.
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Post by p23w on Mar 9, 2020 11:46:16 GMT -5
I think we have to be prepared for any eventuality, right up to and including the cancellation of games. While the death rate from COVID-19 is still quite low, it is nonetheless an order of magnitude greater than for the flu. That and the latency - the time it takes for the symptoms to appear if they even do - means that there can be asymptomatic carriers who can infect 2 to 3 people each on average. ITA. From what I have been told people with compromised immune systems are at the most risk. Older people and children fit that profile. The US Public Health system has been short-funded for years so every attempt will be made to slow this thing down as capacity is rebuilt. That may very well lead to empty stadiums - no spectators and perhaps no players. There are hundreds of homeopathic formulas for hand sanitizers online. There are also numerous suggestions on how to make "masks". Not worried about the capacity to access basic prevention. Empty stadiums..... no players? Hard to fathom. More hard science is needed before we go batsh*t paranoid. Given the marketplace and profit potential I cannot help but believe that big Pharma is working overtime to find answers.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 9, 2020 12:17:50 GMT -5
Baseball players and their fans always try to “play through it” when it comes to injury, pain and illness. But a pandemic which has already claimed so many lives just from being exposed to someone who has CoVid-19, doesn’t seem worth playing through. Especially if profit is the reason to do so. And the internet is also absolutely full of virus protections that just don’t work.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 9, 2020 15:19:18 GMT -5
This thread will be for news related to baseball dealing with the new coronavirus and discussion thereof. The digression that previously popped up in here has been moved to off-topic.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Mar 9, 2020 17:24:57 GMT -5
This thread will be for news related to baseball dealing with the new coronavirus and discussion thereof. The digression that previously popped up in here has been moved to off-topic. Thank you SO MUCH for that... (seriously)
The news around this is evolving pretty quick. Newest from MLB is that they are closing clubhouses to media, theoretically to reduce the potential exposure of some team personnel:
NPB is taking a more fan-centric approach and delaying the start of their season:
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 9, 2020 17:39:53 GMT -5
Not sure if that's "fan-centric" or business driven. Potentially a combination thereof.
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Post by p23w on Mar 9, 2020 19:46:05 GMT -5
Just speculating, but it would seem that "fans" should make decisions based on their own risk factors. The business may get some pressure from the players union, or not. I think MLB will act in lock step regarding whether to play games, or not. Could be an interesting year, games and standings wise. Sort of an inverse of 1981 and 1994. It may sound perverted but this might work in favor of the Sox having a post season. I do wonder if a vaccine is found in what would amount to be "record" time if players would be given the antidote very early on..... right after the politicians.
PS I think it's a hoot that you guys have ads for respirators on your website.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 9, 2020 19:51:36 GMT -5
Took me a minute to figure out how to read it, but this is an interesting chart:
Given the rate of spread of coronavirus, it implies that if you show up to opening day there will probably be someone somewhere in the stands who has it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 9, 2020 21:29:23 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 9, 2020 22:38:25 GMT -5
That's the hope in Italy, that shutting everything down stops transmission. That said, the economic damage in China has been substantial. Their plan is to restart the economy and begin to repair that damage. It's a fine line - doing that and not rebooting the virus.
Here in the States, it's gotten a foothold. Difficult decisions, including for sporting events, will have to be made about public gatherings if it becomes more entrenched.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 9, 2020 23:52:28 GMT -5
China took an extremely aggressive approach to control the spread of the virus, up to and including pretty much shutting down their economy. Here in the US, we have local transmission occurring all across the country and are still doing stuff like... gathering tens of thousands of people together at sporting events. Parts of this country are on a trajectory to look like Italy in about two weeks. It is seeming increasingly delusional to me to suppose sports schedules will be able to go forward as normal - whether that means cancellation or playing before empty stadiums. At least MLB is starting to think about it:
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 0:29:49 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 0:31:35 GMT -5
The So. Korea problem kills our plan to visit Seoul Disneyland at the end of May . Now it looks like an in country vacation, assuming there isn't much spreading here. ADD: One of my neighbors owns a large hospital near Seoul. When this all broke loose in So. Korea, he had to arrange for a military plane to come get him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 0:51:58 GMT -5
In the Philippines there haven't been any reported cases in the southern regions which is where I live. Because the island I am on is considered a resort island, the mayor has ordered the cancellation of all public gatherings. I feel badly for my oldest daughter who will graduate 6th grade. Besides the graduation ceremony, they planned a formal reception. We were able to get back the gown and tux rental money. (It's a father/daughter, mother/son thing) but it's one memory she won't have.
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Post by p23w on Mar 10, 2020 7:34:03 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 7:39:38 GMT -5
How quickly things can move. In the last six hours, I found out that:
All schools kinder through college in our province (state) will begin the summer vacation March 16th instead of March 28th. All ceremonies cancelled.
No summer classes which means there will be a lot of unemployed teachers since the majority of students go to school year round.
My youngest daughter's taekwondo meet next week has been cancelled. Something she's been spending 6 hours a week for the last year preparing for.
All of my wife's running events have been cancelled for the rest of March and April. She usually runs in an event about once a week.
Life is going to change for a while.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2020 8:24:54 GMT -5
"The mortality rate is overestimated because of the huge numbers of undiagnosed cases wandering around". Alright cool, time to cram 34,000 people into Fenway.
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Post by manfred on Mar 10, 2020 9:31:38 GMT -5
It is amazing how quickly events are shutting down. Pearl Jam cancelled their summer tour (as have others). Airlines have cut 25% of their flights. Universities are going on-line.
I think MLB has two problems: first, do they take action; but second, if they don’t, will attendances just plummet? How many people would risk serious illness to attend a game even if allowed?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2020 10:21:29 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 10, 2020 13:30:58 GMT -5
"The mortality rate is overestimated because of the huge numbers of undiagnosed cases wandering around". Alright cool, time to cram 34,000 people into Fenway. Right?!?! What could go wrong?!?!?! To expand your point, what could go wrong as a half million fans, players, vendors, team and ballpark staffs, media, military and musicians cram into the upcoming 15 opening day games in 15 major population centers across the nation?!?!?! (not to mention followed by the crowds at dozens of minor league season openers In smaller towns). Curiosity had me check out the attendees of some of last year’s games. The stands were chock full of gray haired fanatics, exactly the target of covid-19. What could go wrong!?!?!!? As an aside, the Cato opinion nowhere tracks deaths during the past few months from heart disease, cancer, pneumonia, diabetes or just plain old age of having contracted covid-2019 prior to death ... simply because there was no testing done. While it may hopefully work out that the threat of death and/or actual percentage of deaths are less than feared by WHO, it is totally irresponsible at this point to discourage taking steps to prevent its spread and whatever number of deaths it may bring. I hope MLB will be more cautious than Cato.
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Post by p23w on Mar 10, 2020 16:52:52 GMT -5
"The mortality rate is overestimated because of the huge numbers of undiagnosed cases wandering around". Alright cool, time to cram 34,000 people into Fenway. Right?!?! What could go wrong?!?!?! To expand your point, what could go wrong as a half million fans, players, vendors, team and ballpark staffs, media, military and musicians cram into the upcoming 15 opening day games in 15 major population centers across the nation?!?!?! (not to mention followed by the crowds at dozens of minor league season openers In smaller towns). Curiosity had me check out the attendees of some of last year’s games. The stands were chock full of gray haired fanatics, exactly the target of covid-19. What could go wrong!?!?!!? As an aside, the Cato opinion nowhere tracks deaths during the past few months from heart disease, cancer, pneumonia, diabetes or just plain old age of having contracted covid-2019 prior to death ... simply because there was no testing done. While it may hopefully work out that the threat of death and/or actual percentage of deaths are less than feared by WHO, it is totally irresponsible at this point to discourage taking steps to prevent its spread and whatever number of deaths it may bring. I hope MLB will be more cautious than Cato.[/b] I read the article as the Cato Doctor questioning the death rates projected by WHO because they were inclusive of the most high risk group (60+ with other risk factors). If the high risk factor "fans" don't attend games, for example then the contagion will have a much lower desk rate (and possibly a lower infection rate). WHO was projecting, in the authors mind a worse case scenario. Rest homes are already at defcon 4. Nobody had to "tell them" to do so. It was common. sense. MLB has no control with respect to who turns in a ticket stub. At risk seniors, with any common sense, should pass on going to games so it would seem. MLB is in a tricky situation. I suspect they will attempt to err on the side of caution and cancel games early on. Of course if they were really concerned they would cancel the Grapefruit and Cactus League games where the overwhelming attendees are seniors.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 10, 2020 18:28:39 GMT -5
The issue isn't that the people who attend the games themselves would get sick, it's that large gatherings facilitate the spread of the disease in general. To get the spread under control requires social distancing and gathering tens of thousands of people together in one building is the precise opposite of that.
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Post by swingingbunt on Mar 10, 2020 21:41:27 GMT -5
The issue isn't that the people who attend the games themselves would get sick, it's that large gatherings facilitate the spread of the disease in general. To get the spread under control requires social distancing and gathering tens of thousands of people together in one building is the precise opposite of that. Exactly. This graph shows the importance of social distancing during an outbreak, and is easy to see play in real life out when you compare what protective measures countries like Taiwan have done compared to Iran.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 10, 2020 22:05:37 GMT -5
A Walmart store can have 10,000 plus visitors a day. So unless we completely shutdown and quarantine the whole world banning people to sporting events really won’t help much. Odds are pretty good this epidemic won’t amount to much but a giant scare, but is it worth the risk? San Jose Sharks are saying that they may be playing innempty rink as soon as March 19
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