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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2020 22:16:45 GMT -5
A Walmart store can have 10,000 plus visitors a day. So unless we completely shutdown and quarantine the whole world banning people to sporting events really won’t help much. Odds are pretty good this epidemic won’t amount to much but a giant scare, but is it worth the risk? San Jose Sharks are saying that they may be playing innempty rink as soon as March 19 Yeah, that's... pretty much what we're talking about here.
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Post by Don Caballero on Mar 11, 2020 0:05:33 GMT -5
"The mortality rate is overestimated because of the huge numbers of undiagnosed cases wandering around". Alright cool, time to cram 34,000 people into Fenway. Can't be more harmful to your health than seeing Mookie Betts getting traded.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2020 0:36:12 GMT -5
The problem is latency. There are now ten senior facilities in Washington with residents who've tested positive. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's guessed that someone involved with regular deliveries, maintenance, or even regulation at all those places may be responsible.
The most recent number I heard was 5 days till the symptoms show. That's more than enough time to have the virus go viral.
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Post by p23w on Mar 11, 2020 7:45:12 GMT -5
Latency can extend as long as 14 days, ergo the Israeli quarantine on returning travelers is 2 weeks. The mortality rate for non high risk contractors is about the same as the flu, right around 1%.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 11, 2020 8:30:23 GMT -5
Irony is the Red Sox raising ticket prices and now might need play in an empty stadium.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2020 9:32:05 GMT -5
Latency can extend as long as 14 days, ergo the Israeli quarantine on returning travelers is 2 weeks. The mortality rate for non high risk contractors is about the same as the flu, right around 1%. I see what your problem is. The flu has a typical mortality rate of .1% not 1%. You're off by a factor of 10.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 11, 2020 10:07:25 GMT -5
Latency can extend as long as 14 days, ergo the Israeli quarantine on returning travelers is 2 weeks. The mortality rate for non high risk contractors is about the same as the flu, right around 1%. I see what your problem is. Thre flu has a typical mortality rate of .1% not 1%. You're off by a factor of 10. I like to undermine the severity of Coronavirus, but this is a point that people need to understand. Right now, US cases have hit 1,000 with a death toll of 32, making the percentage of death 3.2%. Of which, those with breathing complications and the elderly are most at risk. The flu, (using low-end figures from 2019-2020) has 34 million infections with 20,000 deaths making it 0.05% die from illness. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmExtrapolate the coronavirus to 34 million people with a 3.2% mortality rate and 20,000 deaths becomes 1,088,000. It is a very highly contagious virus that's easy to spread and can take up to 5 days before you realize you have it. (Please correct me if my math is wrong).
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 11, 2020 10:12:41 GMT -5
I see what your problem is. Thre flu has a typical mortality rate of .1% not 1%. You're off by a factor of 10. I like to undermine the severity of Coronavirus, but this is a point that people need to understand. Right now, US cases have hit 1,000 with a death toll of 32, making the percentage of death 3.2%. Of which, those with breathing complications and the elderly are most at risk.
The flu, (using low-end figures from 2019-2020) has 34 million infections with 20,000 deaths making it 0.05% die from illness. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmExtrapolate the coronavirus to 34 million people with a 3.2% mortality rate and 20,000 deaths becomes 1,088,000. It is a very highly contagious virus that's easy to spread and can take up to 5 days before you realize you have it. (Please correct me if my math is wrong). A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups.
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Post by sittingstill on Mar 11, 2020 10:43:24 GMT -5
I will be interested to see what this means for the minor league activity on the back fields, where a six-foot buffer zone is definitely not the norm.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 11, 2020 10:56:05 GMT -5
I like to undermine the severity of Coronavirus, but this is a point that people need to understand. Right now, US cases have hit 1,000 with a death toll of 32, making the percentage of death 3.2%. Of which, those with breathing complications and the elderly are most at risk.
The flu, (using low-end figures from 2019-2020) has 34 million infections with 20,000 deaths making it 0.05% die from illness. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmExtrapolate the coronavirus to 34 million people with a 3.2% mortality rate and 20,000 deaths becomes 1,088,000. It is a very highly contagious virus that's easy to spread and can take up to 5 days before you realize you have it. (Please correct me if my math is wrong). A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups. Agree with the conclusion, but I'd note there are even more unknowns than this. Who's to say the fatality rate is accurate? Since we have hardly been testing anybody, some number of people may have died due to "pneumonia," etc., when it was actually the coronavirus. Also since the spread is recent it's reasonable to expect that many of the people who are now counted as merely infected will eventually die. Also once the health system comes under strain, as it likely will, the mortality rate is likely to increase and I don't think we should be confident it won't go above 3%; it's currently about 6% in Italy.
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Post by Gwell55 on Mar 11, 2020 11:12:03 GMT -5
A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups. Agree with the conclusion, but I'd note there are even more unknowns than this. Who's to say the fatality rate is accurate? Since we have hardly been testing anybody, some number of people may have died due to "pneumonia," etc., when it was actually the coronavirus. Also since the spread is recent it's reasonable to expect that many of the people who are now counted as merely infected will eventually die. Also once the health system comes under strain, as it likely will, the mortality rate is likely to increase and I don't think we should be confident it won't go above 3%; it's currently about 6% in Italy. Currently there are 24 deaths in Washington state which has been hit the hardest of those 24 there are 19 that were in one Kirkland nursing home (seems to me this makes the death rate in the Us skewed upward from the small sample size so far). All the known deaths have been in their 70's,-90's age group except one 40 yr old male. The cases have shone these individuals have had underlying medical conditions.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 11, 2020 11:49:42 GMT -5
I like to undermine the severity of Coronavirus, but this is a point that people need to understand. Right now, US cases have hit 1,000 with a death toll of 32, making the percentage of death 3.2%. Of which, those with breathing complications and the elderly are most at risk.
The flu, (using low-end figures from 2019-2020) has 34 million infections with 20,000 deaths making it 0.05% die from illness. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmExtrapolate the coronavirus to 34 million people with a 3.2% mortality rate and 20,000 deaths becomes 1,088,000. It is a very highly contagious virus that's easy to spread and can take up to 5 days before you realize you have it. (Please correct me if my math is wrong). A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups. In Italy, Coronavirus Cases: 10,149 Deaths: 631 We're looking at 6.2% deaths in Italy with supposedly the second best healthcare services in the world according to WHO: www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdfNow, as a 32 year old with no history of breathing conditions, I'm not worried. Still, that doesn't mean we shouldn't quarantine until a vaccine is ready to be mass produced. I might not be at risk, but me being infected puts others into life threatening risk.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 12:17:47 GMT -5
Philippines, 49 cases (mostly from a cruise ship that visited China) and 1 death, a 67 year old woman for whom the source hasn't been identified. There was also a Chinese national on the cruise ship that died.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 11, 2020 12:34:47 GMT -5
Alright, let's get back to how this impacts baseball. If you want to discuss coronavirus generally, you can do so in the off-topic forum.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 12:38:38 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 11, 2020 12:49:38 GMT -5
From a medical expert on the front line: Coronavirus is a cold virus. CoVid of 2019 describes a unique new strain of Coronavirus which is highly contagious and dangerous, especially (but not limited to) those with a compromised immune system, which is actually a broad swath of people beyond the elderly. But the elderly with underlying conditions have so far been the most vulnerable. The biggest USA numbers SO FAR, come from high concentrations of aged and infirm such as nursing homes and cruise ships. Hence the case for isolation as opposed to congregation.
Age related underlying conditions include a variety of cardio-vascular issues, lung issues including history of pneumonia or bronchitis, and those under medical treatment recovering from events like falls, fatigue from lack of sleep, etc. But though the elderly and infirm are apparently the most effected group, CoVid 19 is not limited to that group. In lieu of an imminent cure or a miracle, isolation and distancing has proven to be an effective way to stop its spread.
With large crowds among the most obvious vehicles for a highly contagious disease to spread, and myself being in a prime candidate for this virus, I cancelled awesome plans to attend ST games at several ballparks in the Valley of the Sun in the shadows of Camelback, and with this thing gaining momentum, am glad I did. MLB and miLB and their teams will have to get serious about this, though I suspect a lot of immune compromised fans may make their own decisions to stay away.
Edit: not yet discussed are the roles of states in relation to baseball. For example, Washington state is considering banning events with crowds over 200, which would likely include Mariners games. L.A. has already declared a state of emergency which could impact the Dodgers. Nearby Coachella and Stagecoach music fests have already been voluntarily postponed to October. This is moving so fast.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 11, 2020 12:55:42 GMT -5
It seems MLB has entered the bargaining stage: The Bay Area, New York, and now Boston all appear to be only a week or two behind Seattle on the epidemiological curve.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 12:59:32 GMT -5
Alright, let's get back to how this impacts baseball. If you want to discuss coronavirus generally, you can do so in the off-topic forum. It's all pretty much related. How Italy is dealing with it, for example, could easily be a harbinger of the future.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 11, 2020 13:02:11 GMT -5
For those who do not know, the CDC does not even release flu death numbers on their own. They release pneumonia+flu deaths together, with pneumonia having many causes and being the cause of a vast majority of those deaths.
Also, many people with a suspected case of the flu do not ever get lab tested for the flu, but are still counted as having the flu.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 13:04:59 GMT -5
From a medical expert on the front line: Coronavirus is a cold virus. CoVid of 2019 describes a unique new strain of Coronavirus which is highly contagious and dangerous, especially (but not limited to) those with a compromised immune system, which is actually a broad swath of people beyond the elderly. But the elderly with underlying conditions have so far been the most vulnerable. The biggest USA numbers SO FAR, come from high concentrations of aged and infirm such as nursing homes and cruise ships. Hence the case for isolation as opposed to congregation. Age related underlying conditions include a variety of cardio-vascular issues, lung issues including history of pneumonia or bronchitis, and those under medical treatment recovering from events like falls, fatigue from lack of sleep, etc. But though the elderly and infirm are apparently the most effected group, CoVid 19 is not limited to that group. In lieu of an imminent cure or a miracle, isolation and distancing has proven to be an effective way to stop its spread. With large crowds among the most obvious vehicles for a highly contagious disease to spread, and myself being in a prime candidate for this virus, I cancelled awesome plans to attend ST games at several ballparks in the Valley of the Sun in the shadows of Camelback, and with this thing gaining momentum, am glad I did. MLB and miLB and their teams will have to get serious about this, though I suspect a lot of immune compromised fans may make their own decisions to stay away. Edit: not yet discussed are the roles of states in relation to baseball. For example, Washington state is considering banning events with crowds over 200, which would likely include Mariners games. L.A. has already declared a state of emergency which could impact the Dodgers. Nearby Coachella and Stagecoach music fests have already been voluntarily postponed to October. This is moving so fast. Massachusetts also declared a state of emergency: Governor Charlie Baker declared a state of emergency for Massachusetts on Tuesday, as the number of Covid-19 cases in the state more than doubled to 92 and the first cases with no known source broke out in Berkshire County. www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/10/metro/mass-legislative-leaders-propose-15-million-coronavirus-package/?et_rid=1841743416&s_campaign=todaysheadlines:newsletterADD: And add UMass to the schools going online. They've asked students to not return after spring break. Here's UMass' web site for updates: www.umass.edu/coronavirus/news/covid-19-transition-remote-course-delivery?fbclid=IwAR2tEUMaUTkQWD-26Csn3vNbZ6lbomyM2-PIMPr01xqYaZrjYNuVz2BMX4o
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 11, 2020 14:09:45 GMT -5
The Bay Area may catch up fast, which would impact the Giants and A’s In two densely populated, tightly packed areas. SFO is a major tourist destination and it’s amazing Chinatown got covid19 early, months ago. Oakland is a Pacific Rim port city. Stanford, which has already gone online for It’s students, is a major medical center and an epicenter for covid19 testing and hospital care, and will likely play its baseball without spectators. Several San Jose (Silicon Valley) airport TSA employees just tested positive.
The Bay Area is already looking like baseball games will be the least of their worries. it would surprise no one if the Giants played to empty seats from day one. However, the Bay Area has good health going for it. Cycling, jogging, locally grown organics, sailing, generally good air, and countless sports leagues. With this and their early and aggressive containment efforts, maybe beautiful Giants stadium will be among the first to bring back the fans.
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dd
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Post by dd on Mar 11, 2020 14:15:52 GMT -5
It hit my town in MA yesterday with 2 cases. The schools are closed today (the victims had kids). The Boston Marathon, which starts here and is the oldest annual marathon in the world, is still scheduled for 4/20. From what I hear, the Boston Athletic Association is still planning to go forward with it but I doubt it's completely in their hands (which I hope are well washed!). We all understand how this is affecting the economy, including sports, but it's also squashing people's dreams in many cases without their having been sick. Weddings etc. Years ago, decades actually, I was working in a minor volunteer role for the BAA before Marathon Day. I happened to be walking through the registration area and saw a young African women given her number. She took it with a smile, turned to leave, but couldn't go on. She fell to her knees, completely in tears, of utter joy. Like many around the world, coming to Boston for this race was a lifelong dream and it was now official! I know there are more touching stories but this one hits me as a former volunteer and former runner (often in the same year). I hope they can get the race in but OTOH I know from experience what running 26.2 miles can do to one's immune system in the subsequent few days. [/off topic]
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 11, 2020 15:02:12 GMT -5
Agree with the conclusion, but I'd note there are even more unknowns than this. Who's to say the fatality rate is accurate? Since we have hardly been testing anybody, some number of people may have died due to "pneumonia," etc., when it was actually the coronavirus. Also since the spread is recent it's reasonable to expect that many of the people who are now counted as merely infected will eventually die. Also once the health system comes under strain, as it likely will, the mortality rate is likely to increase and I don't think we should be confident it won't go above 3%; it's currently about 6% in Italy. What I've heard is that the sub 1% fatality rate only holds until you run out of hospital beds. Once those resources have been outstripped, you get the 5-6% rate they're seeing in Italy. That's why there's so much value in slowing the spread even a little bit.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2020 15:32:51 GMT -5
This interview from the NY Times makes that clear. The problem is shown very clearly in this chart from the article: The protective measures include the ones discussed in this thread: eliminating large gatherings.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 11, 2020 15:42:48 GMT -5
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