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Post by incandenza on Mar 11, 2020 15:48:47 GMT -5
The NCAA basketball tournament is going spectatorless. Today feels like a tipping point day in how public gatherings are being handled.
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art
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Posts: 335
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Post by art on Mar 11, 2020 16:22:26 GMT -5
If MLB is going to the empty-stadium option, it might make more sense for the Sox to play in an empty stadium in Fort Myers than in a cold and empty Fenway in April.
An extended period of playing in empty stadiums may call into question the ability of weaker franchises to cover payroll.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 11, 2020 20:13:31 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 11, 2020 20:38:39 GMT -5
Rudy Gobert of the Jazz has tested positive.
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Post by p23w on Mar 11, 2020 20:56:39 GMT -5
I like to undermine the severity of Coronavirus, but this is a point that people need to understand. Right now, US cases have hit 1,000 with a death toll of 32, making the percentage of death 3.2%. Of which, those with breathing complications and the elderly are most at risk.
The flu, (using low-end figures from 2019-2020) has 34 million infections with 20,000 deaths making it 0.05% die from illness. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmExtrapolate the coronavirus to 34 million people with a 3.2% mortality rate and 20,000 deaths becomes 1,088,000. It is a very highly contagious virus that's easy to spread and can take up to 5 days before you realize you have it. (Please correct me if my math is wrong). A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups. South Korea has around 300 deaths. In Japan, the youngest to die was 50. In the U.S. nearly 40 have died and the average age was/is 75+.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 11, 2020 20:59:35 GMT -5
MLB has time on their hand should probably delay the start of the season.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 11, 2020 21:06:38 GMT -5
NBA has just announced suspension of the season after a player tests positive for COVID-19
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Post by manfred on Mar 11, 2020 21:16:00 GMT -5
A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups. South Korea has around 300 deaths. In Japan, the youngest to die was 50. In the U.S. nearly 40 have died and the average age was/is 75+. Serious estimates have put the total infected by the time we get through this at 70-100 million in the US. Even if death rates are half of the current estimate, that is massive. It is absolutely essential to slow the spread, and the serious efforts were delayed so long that it might be too late.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Mar 11, 2020 21:58:44 GMT -5
I'm staying home for the duration of this and I suggest everyone does the same. This might be the deadliest epidemic that anyone has ever seen. MLB needs to cancel the start of the season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2020 23:29:47 GMT -5
I'm staying home for the duration of this and I suggest everyone does the same. This might be the deadliest epidemic that anyone has ever seen. MLB needs to cancel the start of the season. The 20181918 flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million. Near the end of WWI, bodies of dead soldiers returning from the front in Europe would be carted off the ships bringing them home here in the US. They'd died during the sea voyage. We've got a way to go before we get to those numbers. Hopefully we won't take that trip.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 11, 2020 23:43:59 GMT -5
The Rudy Gobert situation maybe points to the impracticality of playing games at all: one player tests positive, then you quarantine his team and the opponents, as well as all the teams he played against in the last 10 days, and then it's like, well, pretty much gotta suspend the season. I expect we'll hear that the baseball season is going to be indefinitely delayed in the next few days.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Mar 12, 2020 6:26:29 GMT -5
I'm staying home for the duration of this and I suggest everyone does the same. This might be the deadliest epidemic that anyone has ever seen. MLB needs to cancel the start of the season. The 2018 flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million. Near the end of WWI, bodies of dead soldiers returning from the front in Europe would be carted off the ships bringing them home here in the US. They'd died during the sea voyage. We've got a way to go before we get to those numbers. Hopefully we won't take that trip. You wrote 2018 but u meant 1918. You confused me for a second i was like I missed that many people dying??
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2020 7:15:30 GMT -5
If MLB is going to the empty-stadium option, it might make more sense for the Sox to play in an empty stadium in Fort Myers than in a cold and empty Fenway in April. An extended period of playing in empty stadiums may call into question the ability of weaker franchises to cover payroll. This is not a terrible idea. I think they might chop off some of the start of the season in part because of the second point you raised.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
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Post by shagworthy on Mar 12, 2020 8:49:27 GMT -5
At this stage, all major sports need to follow suit with the NBA. Games need to be postponed. Doing anything other than that is unethical in my opinion, and puts many of the older generation of fans at great risk. There has to be a way to still generate revenue without the actual games, maybe broadcast individual team skill competitions with limited support staff and media?
Best case scenario, this is an overreaction and we all chortle in 2-3 weeks when we are out of danger. Worst case scenario a lot of us start burying parents and grandparents prematurely before we decide inaction isn't an appropriate response. Me, personally, would rather be inconvenienced for a few weeks, and slightly bored, than have to explain to my kids that grandma and grandpa aren't here anymore because society is selfish.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 12, 2020 9:01:00 GMT -5
If all it takes is 1 player to get infected to shutdown the whole season then I don't even see the point. I understand the NHL taking every precaution and playing to empty arenas simply because they're already late in the season. What is baseball going to do? Get 2 weeks into the season and then go on indefinite hiatus?
How are player contracts dealt with in situations like these? If someone made 10 million for 2020 and they play half the season, do they only get 5 million? Are they protected from league shutdowns due to "acts of God"? What about service time and super-two?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 12, 2020 10:15:21 GMT -5
Honestly, I'd be surprised if the season started on time and wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't much of a season this year. Who knows how long this will be a major concern for?
Sports are always a great diversion during a time of crisis, but in this case it's just not worth it.
I can't remember a time where I was this unexcited about a season beginning. I mean, I know I wasn't exactly excited to see the 2015 Red Sox and I remember being more curious than excited about the 2013 Red Sox, and the Butch Hobson era wasn't that thrilling, but with the changes on the field and in the dugout and now this...it just doesn't feel the same.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 12, 2020 10:17:42 GMT -5
If all it takes is 1 player to get infected to shutdown the whole season then I don't even see the point. I understand the NHL taking every precaution and playing to empty arenas simply because they're already late in the season. What is baseball going to do? Get 2 weeks into the season and then go on indefinite hiatus? How are player contracts dealt with in situations like these? If someone made 10 million for 2020 and they play half the season, do they only get 5 million? Are they protected from league shutdowns due to "acts of God"? What about service time and super-two? If there's only a half season or maybe not even that, then I guess the Sox did extremely well to trade Mookie away. If you're going to have a pandemic, I guess it's a fabulous idea to trade your franchise player in his walk year. Never ever thought I'd be typing that. What crazy times we live in.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 12, 2020 10:28:08 GMT -5
If all it takes is 1 player to get infected to shutdown the whole season then I don't even see the point. I understand the NHL taking every precaution and playing to empty arenas simply because they're already late in the season. What is baseball going to do? Get 2 weeks into the season and then go on indefinite hiatus? How are player contracts dealt with in situations like these? If someone made 10 million for 2020 and they play half the season, do they only get 5 million? Are they protected from league shutdowns due to "acts of God"? What about service time and super-two? If there's only a half season or maybe not even that, then I guess the Sox did extremely well to trade Mookie away. If you're going to have a pandemic, I guess it's a fabulous idea to trade your franchise player in his walk year. Never ever thought I'd be typing that. What crazy times we live in. Not to derail the topic, but seriously. Think about how little value the Dodgers are getting now and David Price will be a year older. If you were going to have a bridge/re-tool year, this is the time to do it. Gives Verdugo more of an opportunity to heal his back, but also gives guys like Stanton, Judge and Paxton less reason to push their recovery. But I really wonder what the procedure is in this scenario, or if there even is one? Do players still get paid? If you were a September call-up, are you incurring service time or are you getting screwed? Let's say worst-case happens and the whole season is canceled, does everyone lose a year off their contracts or does Mookie Betts become a free agent at the end of 2021? I'm assuming Betts becomes a free agent in this scenario, but the service time and super-2 statuses intrigue me. Also, what of Rule 5 drafts? Be really easy to keep a man on the active roster if you aren't playing any games. I'd feel awful if minor leaguers wouldn't be allowed to collect their slave wages. I can't imagine how hard it is living off that pay and then not even having that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 12, 2020 10:42:38 GMT -5
If there's only a half season or maybe not even that, then I guess the Sox did extremely well to trade Mookie away. If you're going to have a pandemic, I guess it's a fabulous idea to trade your franchise player in his walk year. Never ever thought I'd be typing that. What crazy times we live in. Not to derail the topic, but seriously. Think about how little value the Dodgers are getting now and David Price will be a year older. If you were going to have a bridge/re-tool year, this is the time to do it. Gives Verdugo more of an opportunity to heal his back, but also gives guys like Stanton, Judge and Paxton less reason to push their recovery. But I really wonder what the procedure is in this scenario, or if there even is one? Do players still get paid? If you were a September call-up, are you incurring service time or are you getting screwed? Let's say worst-case happens and the whole season is canceled, does everyone lose a year off their contracts or does Mookie Betts become a free agent at the end of 2021? I'm assuming Betts becomes a free agent in this scenario, but the service time and super-2 statuses intrigue me. Also, what of Rule 5 drafts? Be really easy to keep a man on the active roster if you aren't playing any games. I'd feel awful if minor leaguers wouldn't be allowed to collect their slave wages. I can't imagine how hard it is living off that pay and then not even having that. They're guaranteed contracts so yeah, I think they'd get paid. The Sox are still paying Manny Ramirez not to play for them. Hell, they're still on the hook (for the buy-out) for Sandoval. If the season does get derailed a lot, I'd feel bad (baseballwise) for the Dodgers - they're not a one-time shot team and they'd have plenty of other opportunities, but they really put it on the line for Mookie - well hell, they could simply re-sign him. You know I'm of the camp that if the Red Sox truly believed they could re-sign Mookie, they wouldn't have dealt him. I also believe it wouldn't be like the Dodgers to trade 3 assets (especially given the way they hoarded their pitching in that particular trade) without believing that they could 1) re-sign Mookie and 2) have the money to do so. Well, like you said, if the season starts a month or two late it would benefit the Yankees a bit (and the Red Sox) for their players to heal up. As far as the service time goes, I'd think they'd still get credit for it. It's not like they struck.
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art
Veteran
Posts: 335
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Post by art on Mar 12, 2020 11:07:06 GMT -5
The factors for baseball and basketball aren't the same. There is way less person-to-person contact in baseball, aside from every player touching the same sweaty ball in basketball.
In regard to whether to postpone the start of the season vs play in empty stadiums, the TV & radio contracts are a factor. Don't know how the contracts would deal with this but you can be sure that advertisers would not want to pay broadcasters for games that are not played and broadcasters in turn would not want to pay teams. More people might watch and listen if they're staying home more.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 12, 2020 11:23:52 GMT -5
Not to derail the topic, but seriously. Think about how little value the Dodgers are getting now and David Price will be a year older. If you were going to have a bridge/re-tool year, this is the time to do it. Gives Verdugo more of an opportunity to heal his back, but also gives guys like Stanton, Judge and Paxton less reason to push their recovery. But I really wonder what the procedure is in this scenario, or if there even is one? Do players still get paid? If you were a September call-up, are you incurring service time or are you getting screwed? Let's say worst-case happens and the whole season is canceled, does everyone lose a year off their contracts or does Mookie Betts become a free agent at the end of 2021? I'm assuming Betts becomes a free agent in this scenario, but the service time and super-2 statuses intrigue me. Also, what of Rule 5 drafts? Be really easy to keep a man on the active roster if you aren't playing any games. I'd feel awful if minor leaguers wouldn't be allowed to collect their slave wages. I can't imagine how hard it is living off that pay and then not even having that. They're guaranteed contracts so yeah, I think they'd get paid. The Sox are still paying Manny Ramirez not to play for them. Hell, they're still on the hook (for the buy-out) for Sandoval. If the season does get derailed a lot, I'd feel bad (baseballwise) for the Dodgers - they're not a one-time shot team and they'd have plenty of other opportunities, but they really put it on the line for Mookie - well hell, they could simply re-sign him. You know I'm of the camp that if the Red Sox truly believed they could re-sign Mookie, they wouldn't have dealt him. I also believe it wouldn't be like the Dodgers to trade 3 assets (especially given the way they hoarded their pitching in that particular trade) without believing that they could 1) re-sign Mookie and 2) have the money to do so. Well, like you said, if the season starts a month or two late it would benefit the Yankees a bit (and the Red Sox) for their players to heal up. As far as the service time goes, I'd think they'd still get credit for it. It's not like they struck. But there's a difference. The two sides have agreed to deferred payments. That's why Bobby Bonilla is going to get paid until 2035. This is baseball being forcibly shutdown. This would be an incredible kick in the teeth to the Dodgers. Still, assuming that Betts is a free agent at the end of the season, he might not get the contract he wants simply because teams didn't generate much revenue last season (there's also the question of what about TV contracts?). I could see the Dodgers really doubling down on Betts if they don't get any value from him this year. I have mixed feelings on the Red Sox and re-acquiring Betts. If Betts is going to go for the highest dollar over the next team then it really doesn't matter where he played. Get the value and then go to auction. Still, maybe if you believed you'd retain then you wouldn't incentivize another team to feel obligated to spend on the player. Less of a factor if he went to SD, but the Dodgers have a lot of payroll flexibility. So, that would mean that in a 62 game schedule that players would get service time for 100?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 12, 2020 11:29:07 GMT -5
The factors for baseball and basketball aren't the same. There is way less person-to-person contact in baseball, aside from every player touching the same sweaty ball in basketball. In regard to whether to postpone the start of the season vs play in empty stadiums, the TV & radio contracts are a factor. Don't know how the contracts would deal with this but you can be sure that advertisers would not want to pay broadcasters for games that are not played and broadcasters in turn would not want to pay teams. More people might watch and listen if they're staying home more. I disagree partly with this sentiment. The bat boy/girl is constantly going over to the side of the fans. The dugouts are underneath the fans. Now, if we're talking empty stadium, it's still technically the same thing as the NBA. Ballplayers aren't as recognizable and famous as basketball, but there's a much greater volume of baseball players than there are basketball. It just takes 1 guy to get sick and we're talking 25 man rosters with 30 teams. Heck, if we really want to get crazy we can include the 40 man since players are constantly moving back and forth between AAA and MLB. If Ockimey gets sick and then gets called up then baseball is done. It just doesn't make sense to start the season on time.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 12, 2020 11:34:09 GMT -5
I'm staying home for the duration of this and I suggest everyone does the same. This might be the deadliest epidemic that anyone has ever seen. MLB needs to cancel the start of the season. The 20181918 flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million. Near the end of WWI, bodies of dead soldiers returning from the front in Europe would be carted off the ships bringing them home here in the US. They'd died during the sea voyage. We've got a way to go before we get to those numbers. Hopefully we won't take that trip. The 14th and 6th century bubonic plagues rank 1 & 3 (with Spanish flu at #2) in terms of deaths (although much higher population percentages) at totals of 75-200mil and ~25mil respectively. If every person in the world were to become infected at a 2% mortality rate, then we would got ~140mil, which would challenge for the worst outbreak, but realistically we're probably looking at something that could challenge the 25mil mark (1.25bil infected at 2% mortality rate) but this could change considerably if containment improves or if the hospitals get overtime with patients. One thing that greatly differentiates this from the Spanish flu is that in this case it's the elderly who are dying while the Spanish flu generally affected immune systems and killed the healthier individuals.
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art
Veteran
Posts: 335
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Post by art on Mar 12, 2020 11:38:47 GMT -5
The factors for baseball and basketball aren't the same. There is way less person-to-person contact in baseball, aside from every player touching the same sweaty ball in basketball. In regard to whether to postpone the start of the season vs play in empty stadiums, the TV & radio contracts are a factor. Don't know how the contracts would deal with this but you can be sure that advertisers would not want to pay broadcasters for games that are not played and broadcasters in turn would not want to pay teams. More people might watch and listen if they're staying home more. I disagree partly with this sentiment. The bat boy/girl is constantly going over to the side of the fans. The dugouts are underneath the fans. Now, if we're talking empty stadium, it's still technically the same thing as the NBA. Ballplayers aren't as recognizable and famous as basketball, but there's a much greater volume of baseball players than there are basketball. It just takes 1 guy to get sick and we're talking 25 man rosters with 30 teams. Heck, if we really want to get crazy we can include the 40 man since players are constantly moving back and forth between AAA and MLB. If Ockimey gets sick and then gets called up then baseball is done. It just doesn't make sense to start the season on time. Why is that not also an argument for closing all places of employment and having all workers stay home?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 12, 2020 11:43:02 GMT -5
At this stage, all major sports need to follow suit with the NBA. Games need to be postponed. Doing anything other than that is unethical in my opinion, and puts many of the older generation of fans at great risk. There has to be a way to still generate revenue without the actual games, maybe broadcast individual team skill competitions with limited support staff and media? Best case scenario, this is an overreaction and we all chortle in 2-3 weeks when we are out of danger. Worst case scenario a lot of us start burying parents and grandparents prematurely before we decide inaction isn't an appropriate response. Me, personally, would rather be inconvenienced for a few weeks, and slightly bored, than have to explain to my kids that grandma and grandpa aren't here anymore because society is selfish. This started about 3 months ago. The Spanish flu lasted about 15 months. Your 'best case scenario', unfortunately, is not reasonable. 2-3 months is probably a more reasonable and very optimistic best case scenario. Just something to consider for the soon-to-be-played spring events: nothing is being postponed a few weeks. If they postpone now, then it's either a cancellation or a very long delay. In MLB's case, the season is so long that cancelling a couple of months isn't going to be the end of the world. But it would suck to cancel the whole season. 10 years from now we will look back at the impact this pandemic caused and likely recognize the economic affects just as greatly, if not greater, than the loss of life; in both the general country/world and MLB. Hold on.
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