SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Mike Andrews on May 11, 2020 15:47:37 GMT -5
One part of MLB's proposal to restart the 2020 season around July 4 is a 30-man roster plus a 20-man taxi squad. Minor league season would be shuttered, or presumably some revised form taking place in Florida and Arizona (that's a discussion for another thread). Thought it might be a fun exercise to try to project the roster and the taxi squad for when July 4 rolls around. Fire away. Side note: we have no idea what the rules will be for how it will work. But think maybe that you can still call guys up later in the season if you DFA another player.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 11, 2020 16:31:59 GMT -5
I think it depends on what the minor league setup would be. If there is some form of organized development going on for the minor league guys, I would imagine the taxi squad would be just most of Pawtucket's roster.
But if the minor league season gets completely axed, I could see them (or at least would hope to) going with this distribution: - 8 slots for injury depth - a couple starters, relievers, utility infielders/outfielders and a third catcher. - the last 12 or however many spots would be the top prospects across all levels that you want to keep around the organization and develop. Dalbec, Chatham, and Houck are legit prospects who would probably still be considered group 1 guys which is nice, but then maybe guys like Downs, Wong, Duran, Mata, Groome, even as low as like Danny Diaz or Brainer Bonaci. Those guys obviously wouldn't contribute to the big league team but if there's no minor league season you're going to want to make sure your top guys are still getting work in with the coaches, so it allows them to retain their long-term development plan to a reasonable degree. And after a certain point, if you're so injured that you need to add someone from deep in the taxi squad, there's not going to be much difference between John Andreoli or some major league free agent you can sign mid-season. So the marginal benefit of comprising the taxi squad of all high-level guys is pretty miniscule.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on May 11, 2020 18:45:02 GMT -5
Off the top, and subject to change once we learn more:
Catcher (4) Christian Vazquez Kevin Plawecki Jonathon Lucroy Jett Bandy (taxi squad)
Corner Infielders (5) Mitch Moreland Rafael Devers Michael Chavis Bobby Dalbec (taxi squad) Josh Ockimey (taxi squad)
Middle Infielders/Utility (8) Xander Bogaerts Jose Peraza Tsu-Wei Lin Jonathan Arauz Yairo Munoz (taxi squad) Marco Hernandez (taxi squad) C.J. Chatham (taxi squad) Jeter Downs (taxi squad)
Outfielders (8) Andrew Benintendi Jackie Bradley Alex Verdugo J.D. Martinez Kevin Pillar Nick Longhi (taxi squad) Cesar Puello (taxi squad) Marcus Wilson (taxi squad)
Starting Pitchers/Piggyback (10) Eduardo Rodriguez Nathan Eovaldi Martin Perez Collin McHugh Ryan Weber Chris Mazza Kyle Hart (taxi squad) Brian Johnson (taxi squad) Tanner Houck (taxi squad) Bryan Mata (taxi squad)
Relief Pitchers (15) Brandon Workman Matt Barnes Darwinzon Hernandez Marcus Walden Ryan Brasier Josh Taylor Heath Hembree Austin Brice Josh Osich Colten Brewer (taxi squad) Mike Shawaryn (taxi squad) Yoan Aybar (taxi squad) Phillips Valdez (taxi squad) Matt Hall (taxi squad) Jeffrey Springs (taxi squad)
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on May 11, 2020 20:54:23 GMT -5
Not very good..Ed R. is the only remaining, proven starter. Others listed are known and mostly career flotsum. Eovaldi #2?? In what competitive universe? #5 maybe.
Relief pitching is also sub par to top teams. Beyond Workman, (hopefully not a mirage) there is ball, strike, ball Barnes, Hernandez and Taylor..ok but certainly not lock em up tight. Everyone thereafter is a mystery.
Offense will be ok even w/o Mookie. Average or better but not come from behind dominant.
We need a couple of good drafts and sage FA pickups to consider being back in the mix. I think it's a 2-5 year project.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaymabe on May 11, 2020 21:48:00 GMT -5
I miss David Price
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on May 12, 2020 1:42:10 GMT -5
Agreed Sarasoxer. This is a 75-80 win team. Pitching is worse than lackadaisical starters they had in 70's, only no iron man in Tiant at the top. Feel bad for those expecting much results wise out of this team as-is.
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on May 12, 2020 6:36:31 GMT -5
Off the top, and subject to change once we learn more: Catcher (4) Christian Vazquez Kevin Plawecki Jonathon Lucroy Jett Bandy (taxi squad) Corner Infielders (5) Mitch Moreland Rafael Devers Michael Chavis Bobby Dalbec (taxi squad) Josh Ockimey (taxi squad) Middle Infielders/Utility (8) Xander Bogaerts Jose Peraza Tsu-Wei Lin Jonathan Arauz Yairo Munoz (taxi squad) Marco Hernandez (taxi squad) C.J. Chatham (taxi squad) Jeter Downs (taxi squad) Outfielders (8) Andrew Benintendi Jackie Bradley Alex Verdugo J.D. Martinez Kevin Pillar Nick Longhi (taxi squad) Cesar Puello (taxi squad) Marcus Wilson (taxi squad) Starting Pitchers/Piggyback (10) Eduardo Rodriguez Nathan Eovaldi Martin Perez Collin McHugh Ryan Weber Chris Mazza Kyle Hart (taxi squad) Brian Johnson (taxi squad) Tanner Houck (taxi squad) Bryan Mata (taxi squad) Relief Pitchers (15) Brandon Workman Matt Barnes Darwinzon Hernandez Marcus Walden Ryan Brasier Josh Taylor Heath Hembree Austin Brice Josh Osich Colten Brewer (taxi squad) Mike Shawaryn (taxi squad) Yoan Aybar (taxi squad) Phillips Valdez (taxi squad) Matt Hall (taxi squad) Jeffrey Springs (taxi squad) I guess it will depend on what they do with the minor league system. If no or limited minor league participation, then I wonder what the sox do about Casas, Jimenez, Duran and wong? Duran and Wong from what I thought I have read here is that they could be close to or ready for the bigs next season. So I would think that they should be on the taxi squad. Casas and Jimenez are key potential players down the road. So, I am not sure that you want them to totally lose a season.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2020 8:10:37 GMT -5
Agreed Sarasoxer. This is a 75-80 win team. Pitching is worse than lackadaisical starters they had in 70's, only no iron man in Tiant at the top. Feel bad for those expecting much results wise out of this team as-is. A 75 - 80 win team? In an 82 game season??? I'll take it!!! Nah, honestly if they played a 162 game season in 2020 I'd agree with your point. The pitching is pretty bad and in Boston usually when things go good they really go good, but when they disintegrate, they fall apart. This year's time might have lost 90 plus games given how bad the pitching looks and that the offense isn't good enough to get around it. I know they're talking an 82 game schedule. I'm not convinced that this season really happens. I think the COVID 19 problem isn't going to let up enough and the war they're going to have over the owners trying to convince the players to take less money if they can't fill the ballparks....the Sox might be spared their 2020 season of mediocrity. I do hope they play baseball because if they do hopefully things are getting better, which is the #1 reason (as opposed to the owners and players want to make money), plus I miss baseball like crazy, even mediocre baseball, and for selfish reasons, I'd like to see the Sox get their "under the cap" season over with and doing it in a messed up year like this one is an ideal situation to do it in. I do wonder if they don't play the season and this leaks into next year, how do they evaluate all of those minor leaguers and what level they'd be ready for? I mean it's possible a Jeter Downs could be ready in 2021 even without playing AAA ball or having that much experience in AA ball? Guys who are getting older (like a JDM) might be candidates for performance regression? I think the closest parallels were when a lot of the soldiers were coming home from WWII, like could Ted Williams still be the same hitter he was prior to the war, etc? How rusty will they be? Will their skill level still be the same? Without a season, that's such a hard thing to judge.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 12, 2020 15:15:01 GMT -5
Considering they have exactly 1 (one) reliable starter, the expanded rosters and short season could give them a chance to get creative with the handling of the pitching staff - they could essentially have Eduardo make regular starts and then have four bullpen games, mixing and matching as needed. The relievers themselves are no sure bets, but you never know when a team's bullpen is gonna be great out of nowhere, and it would give them a fighting chance in a weird little season like this.
Say they need to get 700 IP out of this staff. Suppose they could get 100 for ERod, 60 from Eovaldi, 50 from Perez, 50 from McHugh, 40 from Barnes, 40 from Workman, 40 from Darwinzon, 30 from Walden... that's about 60% of the innings they need, and there's a fair amount of upside in those innings, which could also be weighted toward high leverage.
I guess this is kind of a way of saying that pitching will be more equalized among teams under these conditions, which disadvantages teams that are built around strong starting staffs and advantages teams that... are not. Like the Red Sox.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on May 12, 2020 20:19:41 GMT -5
Agreed Sarasoxer. This is a 75-80 win team. Pitching is worse than lackadaisical starters they had in 70's, only no iron man in Tiant at the top. Feel bad for those expecting much results wise out of this team as-is. 75 -7 Sounds Good to Me.......
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on May 12, 2020 21:10:33 GMT -5
Agreed Sarasoxer. This is a 75-80 win team. Pitching is worse than lackadaisical starters they had in 70's, only no iron man in Tiant at the top. Feel bad for those expecting much results wise out of this team as-is. 75 -7 Sounds Good to Me....... Yup it sure sounds good...but it's produced in Tim Leary's studio of the mind and even then with lip sinc. Really tho if the Sox are near .500, (39-43?) that would be a success and watchable.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 13, 2020 15:58:46 GMT -5
A big question for me is whether the entire 40-man roster needs to be on the 50-man list. In particular, Aybar and Wilson strike me as guys who aren't ready to help and who the Red Sox would gladly replace on the taxi squad. And then there's the issue of fringy 40-man guys like Valdez, who might get put on waivers to open up taxi squad spots.
Also, can you have MORE players playing with your "taxi squad?" Can, say, a Duran be off the taxi squad, but still working out with them?
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 21, 2020 2:27:46 GMT -5
If there is a season, and I think it is more likely there will not be one, I think the 50-man roster should include at least a half dozen of the most promising lower level players, from Duran and Casas to Jimenez and some others just to give them some playing time and experience. They really should be pointing to 2021 and lining up a team that will be highly competitive, while developing the handful of outstanding prospects they have.
At my stage of life there only are three things that really matter to me, family/personal relationships, politics and baseball - and by that I mean the Sox - and I sure would like to have the Sox divert me for periods of time from politics. I just don't see it happening this year.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2020 8:07:59 GMT -5
Is it safe to assume that putting someone on the 50 man this year doesn't neccesitate that they be on the 40 man next year ?
I'm pretty much the same as danr in what interests me except I'm more into World politics than USA only politics. In that venue, politics has helped fill the baseball void. Right now I'm keenly interested in the multi-nation military buildup in the South China Sea that is affecting Asian stock markets right now.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2020 9:41:10 GMT -5
If there is a season, and I think it is more likely there will not be one, I think the 50-man roster should include at least a half dozen of the most promising lower level players, from Duran and Casas to Jimenez and some others just to give them some playing time and experience. They really should be pointing to 2021 and lining up a team that will be highly competitive, while developing the handful of outstanding prospects they have. Not sure I agree. Having Gilberto Jimenez go 0-for-the month against AAA pitchers is not going to help him develop. He was going to be challenged enough by South Atlantic League pitchers (if not their defenses, most likely). The point of the taxi squad, in theory, is that it will be the pool of players who will be available to be called up to MLB if a 30-man roster transaction is necessary (IL, optioning a player, etc.). It's simulating the AAA team, essentially - in 2019 you had a 25-man roster in both Boston and Pawtucket, so 50 players, right? For the younger players, as we've discussed here, there is likely to be some kind of extended Fall Instructional League of some sort, as the virus and other restrictions allow. Now, I don't disagree entirely with your general premise. For guys who are close, like Duran, I could see them being put on the taxi squad over, say, John Andreoli. But I can't see them going all the way down to A-ball. They need to use those spots for guys they might use in Boston. Is it safe to assume that putting someone on the 50 man this year doesn't neccesitate that they be on the 40 man next year ? Yeah, I can't imagine they'd make teams do that either. As we've discussed, I'm intrigued to see whether someone being on the 40-man means they need to be on the 50-man. Guys like Aybar are simply not ready to contribute this year, and I'm sure the Red Sox would rather use taxi squad spots on guys like the NRI pitchers who are more likely to get called up than Aybar and the like.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2020 9:48:13 GMT -5
To me, the 40 man plus 10 NRI, minor league free agent types makes the most sense. There will be replacements also, Pedroia, Sale for example. That would also give the remaining free agents a chance.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2020 9:57:45 GMT -5
The downside to teams of it including the 40 man is that it will start the clock for several players that teams didn't intend to give a full year to, Chavis, for example. <--- (run on sentence).
Without doing any detailed analysis, I'd guess that would hurt the Sox less than most teams.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 22, 2020 2:01:52 GMT -5
Is it safe to assume that putting someone on the 50 man this year doesn't neccesitate that they be on the 40 man next year ? I'm pretty much the same as danr in what interests me except I'm more into World politics than USA only politics. In that venue, politics has helped fill the baseball void. Right now I'm keenly interested in the multi-nation military buildup in the South China Sea that is affecting Asian stock markets right now. It's getting scary there. What I love about baseball is that there is no space for insanity and it basically is the same game of 100 years ago showing that there can be traditions and consistency in life. When I was in the book business I had a baseball instruction book from the early 1920s. God, I wish I still had it, but it was too valuable to keep. It provided instructions and position diagrams for playing every position in all normal circumstances. Any Little League coach today could use the book and not miss a thing.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2020 6:27:18 GMT -5
Is it safe to assume that putting someone on the 50 man this year doesn't neccesitate that they be on the 40 man next year ? I'm pretty much the same as danr in what interests me except I'm more into World politics than USA only politics. In that venue, politics has helped fill the baseball void. Right now I'm keenly interested in the multi-nation military buildup in the South China Sea that is affecting Asian stock markets right now. It's getting scary there. What I love about baseball is that there is no space for insanity and it basically is the same game of 100 years ago showing that there can be traditions and consistency in life. When I was in the book business I had a baseball instruction book from the early 1920s. God, I wish I still had it, but it was too valuable to keep. It provided instructions and position diagrams for playing every position in all normal circumstances. Any Little League coach today could use the book and not miss a thing. Along the same lines, what I love about baseball is that by statistically comparing players to their peers and then adjusting for changes year to year, you can get a feel for how players in different eras compare to each other in a fairer basis than saying players are better today because humankind has improved athletics. Only chest pumps so far. Watch for aircraft carrier groups from the 3rd fleet departing to join the 7th fleet, you will know that fireworks are expected. The European markets have been reacting ever since the UK announced they were sending "substantial naval assets" to the region.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 22, 2020 9:23:18 GMT -5
The downside to teams of it including the 40 man is that it will start the clock for several players that teams didn't intend to give a full year to, Chavis, for example. <--- (run on sentence). Without doing any detailed analysis, I'd guess that would hurt the Sox less than most teams. I'm not sure why people think the taxi squad would count as service time. Has that been written anywhere? You're not the first person I've seen assuming that. (Also, I was under the assumption Chavis would be up all year. Were you not? I figured he was going to get about 400 PAs this year.) My assumption has always been that being on the taxi squad would be the same as being in Triple-A, and you don't get service time unless you're on the MLB roster. Now, that's 120 extra guys getting service time every day because of the expansion from 26 to 30, but I don't think you're going to see young players getting the 30th spot on the roster just to sit there and be an extra player, in part for that reason.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2020 10:14:40 GMT -5
The downside to teams of it including the 40 man is that it will start the clock for several players that teams didn't intend to give a full year to, Chavis, for example. <--- (run on sentence). Without doing any detailed analysis, I'd guess that would hurt the Sox less than most teams. I'm not sure why people think the taxi squad would count as service time. Has that been written anywhere? You're not the first person I've seen assuming that. (Also, I was under the assumption Chavis would be up all year. Were you not? I figured he was going to get about 400 PAs this year.) My assumption has always been that being on the taxi squad would be the same as being in Triple-A, and you don't get service time unless you're on the MLB roster. Now, that's 120 extra guys getting service time every day because of the expansion from 26 to 30, but I don't think you're going to see young players getting the 30th spot on the roster just to sit there and be an extra player, in part for that reason. There aren't many details out yet that I've seen. If there is no minor league, how do you handle a taxi squad ? Do they just sit at home waiting for the phone to ring ? I assumed Chavis would be up after about 3 weeks to get the 6+ years total service time if this was a normal season.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 22, 2020 16:10:27 GMT -5
The point of the taxi squad is they would be with the MLB club (or nearby) working out. That's the idea - it's in lieu of having a Triple-A team, these guys would be nearby and ready to come up. I've posited that they might put them in Pawtucket since it's so close, but they also could be in Boston as well, working out during the day.
Chavis got 164 days of service time last year, or 8 days short of a full year. He'd need a LOT more than 3 weeks in the minors to manipulate his service time. The Super 2 cutoff was 2.115 last year, so he'd need to stay down for 49 days (or whatever the equivalent is this year - 25 I guess if they prorate?) with that low of a cutoff. You can't keep a key contributor down for a quarter of the season like that, especially in the sprint they're trying to have this year.
While the "he still has things to work on" garbage argument works for rookies (and survived Kris Bryant's grievance this year), I doubt a team would get away with it with a guy who was up for almost a full season the year before.
If Chavis plays well, he stays. If he doesn't play well, then you can send him down and maybe get another year out of him. But it feels at this point like he's past the gimmicking his service time stage.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2020 19:54:38 GMT -5
Sorry Chavis, meant Dalbec. My baseball brain is getting rusty.
Relative to the taxi squad, how game ready do you think they will be with no games being played ? A couple of weeks after the proposed spring training period, they will be as rusty as my brain with just practice.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2020 17:14:19 GMT -5
|
|
|