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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 10, 2020 14:12:30 GMT -5
With the short draft and no 2nd round pick, the underslot approach seems very confusing. Agree...That approach is extremely risky as you could get stuck with a less talented first round pick while guys you thought you could draft and sign go off the board between the Red Sox 1st and 3rd round picks. Anything other than best player available with the 1st round pick would be real risky. Best player available is risky too, because teams don't have as much info as they normally would have. Hell, first round picks bust all the time in the MLB so drafting anyone is risky. Not saying I'm a proponent of the underslot idea but dismissing an idea because it's risky is kind of ignoring the whole premise of the MLB draft.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 10, 2020 14:13:20 GMT -5
With the short draft and no 2nd round pick, the underslot approach seems very confusing. Agree...That approach is extremely risky as you could get stuck with a less talented first round pick while guys you thought you could draft and sign go off the board between the Red Sox 1st and 3rd round picks. Anything other than best player available with the 1st round pick would be real risky. I tried to make this point in the other draft thread....but I don't think the Red Sox would go underslot and bypass the best player available. I think they could go underslot if their evaluations had multiple best players available on the same tier, in which case creating savings could be a guiding principle as to who to select among those BPAs. Its quite possible that at #17, there are a handful of guys all with the same overall FV (say FV45+) as determined by their evaluators.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 10, 2020 14:43:40 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 10, 2020 14:45:24 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2020 14:48:45 GMT -5
Chris has a twitter link saying the Prospects Live staff has a rumor of Mick Abel having a deal with the Sox at pick 17.
Does that mean (if it's true) they have a deal contingent upon his availability at 17 and if he is swooped up prior to 17 then the deal would not matter?
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Post by kman22 on Jun 10, 2020 15:16:10 GMT -5
Chris has a twitter link saying the Prospects Live staff has a rumor of Mick Abel having a deal with the Sox at pick 17. Does that mean (if it's true) they have a deal contingent upon his availability at 17 and if he is swooped up prior to 17 then the deal would not matter? Yeah, presumably if he gets there, they have an agreement. If not, they move on.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 10, 2020 15:17:29 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2020 15:19:46 GMT -5
Chris has a twitter link saying the Prospects Live staff has a rumor of Mick Abel having a deal with the Sox at pick 17. Does that mean (if it's true) they have a deal contingent upon his availability at 17 and if he is swooped up prior to 17 then the deal would not matter? It was posted on the first page of this thread. There's another rumor elsewhere in that link about Carson Tucker. Longenhagen speculating if Abel is gone Sox might go underslot with Tucker or Tanner Witt.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 10, 2020 15:28:23 GMT -5
I think Eric mat have hit it on the head, deal with Abel...but if he’s gone Tanner Witt or the other kid under slot as a back up plan. Would explain the conflicting rumors.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 10, 2020 15:29:13 GMT -5
I mean Tanner Witt is exciting as well
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2020 15:54:01 GMT -5
Chris has a twitter link saying the Prospects Live staff has a rumor of Mick Abel having a deal with the Sox at pick 17. Does that mean (if it's true) they have a deal contingent upon his availability at 17 and if he is swooped up prior to 17 then the deal would not matter? It was posted on the first page of this thread. There's another rumor elsewhere in that link about Carson Tucker. Longenhagen speculating if Abel is gone Sox might go underslot with Tucker or Tanner Witt. My questions sounds kind of stupid, but it was along the lines of if the Sox and Abel have a handshake agreement, does that mean that his agent told other teams don't draft him because he won't sign, but would that fall by the wayside if he got drafted before 17 anyways? I got my answer. If that rumor is true, then yes it would fall by the wayside if he gets drafted and I suppose that Tucker rumor is a contingency thought of going underslot if Abel is off the board by pick 17. I do wonder if one of those college OFers like PCA or Mitchell are around, wouldn't they pounce on one of them instead of going underslot on a Tucker? My gut feeling (not that I'm ever right) is that Abel (and PCA as well) is gone by 17 and the Sox do surprise us with their pick.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 10, 2020 15:55:58 GMT -5
PCA is a high schooler.
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Post by bcsox on Jun 10, 2020 16:00:14 GMT -5
just a random musing, but the three days of draft used to be such a great follow. My two favorite parts were following the second and third day picks and reading the obscure information that those on this board would find about these players, and then being convinced that that the sox had unearthed a legit prospect in the...27th round. Also I loved going down to the wire with the tough signs to see how the Sox did. that is gone for a year and it is a bummer.
Anyones with the statement in this thread that most of the prospects in the 200-500 range saying they would not sign if not drafted, are we looking at 4 picks for the sox and then organizational filler signings for $20K. With the number of minor league teams being reduced, what is the current thought as to how many undrafted kids the sox are going to sigh? 10? more, less?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 10, 2020 16:13:17 GMT -5
I'd be able to talk myself into the underslot idea if it were a high school guy typically ranked in the early second round, as opposed to a lower ceiling college guy like McMahon. It's all a dice roll anyway so I'd rather take a shot at a younger guy with tools that maybe would've been a pop up guy had there been a full season and then turn around and take another toolsy high schooler in the third round than take someone with a perceived lower upside just to get that high ceiling third rounder.
I'm not all that enthused by Tucker but would LOVE Witt for this.I think Markevian Hence sounds like a super interesting guy to target for this strategy, too.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 10, 2020 16:20:48 GMT -5
4:54 PM: Garrett Crochet is all but a lock to go no. 11 according to multiple sources. Austin Hendrick also looking like a strong possibility at 21 to the Cardinals.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 10, 2020 16:34:44 GMT -5
please deliver us a Mookie, Xander, or Rafi this draft. it isn't asking much. Go Red Sox !!1
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 10, 2020 17:20:34 GMT -5
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Post by juniorp90 on Jun 10, 2020 17:21:28 GMT -5
Let's see, why be interested in a player from the position of ss and where we already have players like Matt Lugo (with similar abilities), Jeter Downs, CJ Chatham, Brainer Bonaci and in the big team, Bogaerts? Someone explain me...
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Post by caseytins on Jun 10, 2020 17:29:26 GMT -5
Gun to my head I'll guess sometime around 8:25? I'll take the over!
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Post by ajs1994 on Jun 10, 2020 17:32:29 GMT -5
Let's see, why be interested in a player from the position of ss and where we already have players like Matt Lugo (with similar abilities), Jeter Downs, CJ Chatham, Brainer Bonaci and in the big team, Bogaerts? Someone explain me... Bogaerts can opt out after 2022, so there's no guarantee he would be here at a time when Tucker would be MLB ready, even if everything broke right. Lugo and Bonaci are so far away I don't think you can count on them as future MLB players. Chatham most outlets view as more of a 40 future value player, so more of s backup than anything else. We also need a 2nd basemen, which is where I think Downs profiles if all develops correctly. I also just don't think you draft on need in baseball, especially with high schoolers. Get the best assets you can, if everything breaks right and you have a logjam at a position, that's a good problem to have and you can deal from a position of strength.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 10, 2020 17:37:32 GMT -5
You don’t draft for need in the MLB draft things can change very quickly.
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Post by juniorp90 on Jun 10, 2020 17:43:16 GMT -5
Let's see, why be interested in a player from the position of ss and where we already have players like Matt Lugo (with similar abilities), Jeter Downs, CJ Chatham, Brainer Bonaci and in the big team, Bogaerts? Someone explain me... Bogaerts can opt out after 2022, so there's no guarantee he would be here at a time when Tucker would be MLB ready, even if everything broke right. Lugo and Bonaci are so far away I don't think you can count on them as future MLB players. Chatham most outlets view as more of a 40 future value player, so more of s backup than anything else. We also need a 2nd basemen, which is where I think Downs profiles if all develops correctly. I also just don't think you draft on need in baseball, especially with high schoolers. Get the best assets you can, if everything breaks right and you have a logjam at a position, that's a good problem to have and you can deal from a position of strength. Yes, I buy it from you, but you can't prove in this case that Tucker would be an MLB player, or another hs player, so if the idea is to get the best available in pick 17, Tucker is? I don't think so .... In that case I would prefer other college players in that position, Or Drew Romo if they want to go for a lower bonus. But that's my opinion
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 10, 2020 17:54:25 GMT -5
Almost go time guys! I love the draft.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 10, 2020 18:01:29 GMT -5
The question is MLB Network or ESPN for coverage?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 10, 2020 18:01:40 GMT -5
Callis has Cole Wilcox and Mayo has Mick Abel in their final mocks.
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