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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 16:11:33 GMT -5
This is going to be a long evening. Can't wait!! Bummed we won't have a third day
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jun 11, 2020 16:13:58 GMT -5
This is going to be a long evening. Only 50 more picks. 😀
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 16:16:35 GMT -5
So far....Orioles' plan for spending is unclear. Either they were just looking to save money (w/ Kjerstad) or their $ splash will come later?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 16:16:55 GMT -5
So is that the big bonus guy the Orioles went with Kjerstad at 2 for? Seems weird they didn't swing for Kelley, Ginn, or Wilcox.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,842
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Post by nomar on Jun 11, 2020 16:23:56 GMT -5
So far....Orioles' plan for spending is unclear. Either they were just looking to save money (w/ Kjerstad) or their $ splash will come later? I was going to throw a rock but not in the house we built last night...
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 11, 2020 16:35:05 GMT -5
Kind of hoping the Red Sox draft zero high upside HS guys so the forum discourse can descend into mayhem.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 16:36:23 GMT -5
Jared Kelley gone to the White Sox. That is a pair of boom or bust arms right there with Crochet and Kelley. Would imagine they're going to be real conservative from now on today.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 16:38:29 GMT -5
Kind of hoping the Red Sox draft zero high upside HS guys so the forum discourse can descend into mayhem. I'll bring extra pitchforks for everyone
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2020 16:45:34 GMT -5
Rangers just took a guy who isn't ranked anywhere.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 16:46:03 GMT -5
Rangers went with a guy not even on the BA 500. That's after they took Foscue at 14 who is probably going to be well underslot. If you're wondering what the worst case looks like on paper, that might be it haha
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2020 16:49:06 GMT -5
Red Sox should've been picking here.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 11, 2020 16:58:05 GMT -5
Yesterday in the general draft thread, I threw out a few financial scenarios in the case that the Red Sox went underslot at #17. I used $3.0M as the underslot value, but now that we know the pick, lets play with a different figure. What will Yorke's $ bonus look like? Some estimates are as low as $1.5M. In a shocking scenario, lets set the upper range to $3.0M. I've read he was considered a tough sign in the 2nd round which tops out at basically $2.0M in the beginning of the round. I'd be thrilled if he signed for $2.0M, but lets go with $2.3M for this exercise, leaving basically $3.0M to spend on our three picks today after taking into account the 5% overage on the entire pool. So the math from here is pretty simple but here are a few scenarios: 1. $2.2M on 3rd rounder, near slot on 4th and 5th rounders: Basically, they come to a verbal agreement with someone they really like overnight, hope that no other teams are willing to match this figure, and then hope the player drops to Round 3 (with the player settling for nothing less than $2.2M in conversations w/ other teams). Of course, there are other teams with plenty of bonus $ to match an offer of say $2.2M, so this scenario would require that there are a handful of guys the Sox are willing to offer $2.2M. 2. $1.5M on 3rd rounder, $1.2M on 4th rounder, near slot on 5th rounder: Nab 2 HS guys they covet; but don't completely lock into the HS demographic and allow to sign a college guy they like. If that college guy is available earlier and they need to pounce (because they can assume HS guys available in rounds 3-4 are more likely to drop to 5), then you can basically swap the bonus amounts for the 4th and 5th rounders here. 3. $1.0M on 3rd rounder, $1.0M on 4th rounder, $1.0M on 5th rounder: Distribute among the players nearly equally, but probably assumes HS player in each round which is a bold draft. - I wonder a little if the overall draft strategy is somewhat guided by the UDFA projections. Perhaps the Sox think there are a number of college players, undervalued and signable as free agents. If so, perhaps they view these draft 4 picks as their only means of tapping into the HS demographic and coming away with 3 (or more) HS players w/ upside. - I'll probably drop a list of my most coveted players as the 3rd round is getting underway. I'll say now though that the guy who I'd be thrilled about is Kevin Parada....chance for a nice hit/power combo and has tools to stick at C. Do we know he has agreed to an under slot contract? Could we not offer him 80% of the slot value, (I forgot the exact percent) have him walk and get the 18th pick next year?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 16:58:20 GMT -5
Cole Wilcox had been mocked to the Nats in the first to death because of the Boras ties and just his general profile so I was walking out of the room and heard Cole and was like "oh wow of course" and then Henry and then I almost broke my neck doing a double take haha
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2020 17:01:28 GMT -5
Yesterday in the general draft thread, I threw out a few financial scenarios in the case that the Red Sox went underslot at #17. I used $3.0M as the underslot value, but now that we know the pick, lets play with a different figure. What will Yorke's $ bonus look like? Some estimates are as low as $1.5M. In a shocking scenario, lets set the upper range to $3.0M. I've read he was considered a tough sign in the 2nd round which tops out at basically $2.0M in the beginning of the round. I'd be thrilled if he signed for $2.0M, but lets go with $2.3M for this exercise, leaving basically $3.0M to spend on our three picks today after taking into account the 5% overage on the entire pool. So the math from here is pretty simple but here are a few scenarios: 1. $2.2M on 3rd rounder, near slot on 4th and 5th rounders: Basically, they come to a verbal agreement with someone they really like overnight, hope that no other teams are willing to match this figure, and then hope the player drops to Round 3 (with the player settling for nothing less than $2.2M in conversations w/ other teams). Of course, there are other teams with plenty of bonus $ to match an offer of say $2.2M, so this scenario would require that there are a handful of guys the Sox are willing to offer $2.2M. 2. $1.5M on 3rd rounder, $1.2M on 4th rounder, near slot on 5th rounder: Nab 2 HS guys they covet; but don't completely lock into the HS demographic and allow to sign a college guy they like. If that college guy is available earlier and they need to pounce (because they can assume HS guys available in rounds 3-4 are more likely to drop to 5), then you can basically swap the bonus amounts for the 4th and 5th rounders here. 3. $1.0M on 3rd rounder, $1.0M on 4th rounder, $1.0M on 5th rounder: Distribute among the players nearly equally, but probably assumes HS player in each round which is a bold draft. - I wonder a little if the overall draft strategy is somewhat guided by the UDFA projections. Perhaps the Sox think there are a number of college players, undervalued and signable as free agents. If so, perhaps they view these draft 4 picks as their only means of tapping into the HS demographic and coming away with 3 (or more) HS players w/ upside. - I'll probably drop a list of my most coveted players as the 3rd round is getting underway. I'll say now though that the guy who I'd be thrilled about is Kevin Parada....chance for a nice hit/power combo and has tools to stick at C. Do we know he has agreed to an under slot contract? Could we not offer him 80% of the slot value, (I forgot the exact percent) have him walk and get the 18th pick next year? As discussed here and on Twitter and everywhere, he said last night he told the Sox his number and they met it. And Alex tweeted last night that a source tells him it's an underslot bonus.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 17:03:42 GMT -5
Wait, why don't the Yankees have a second of fifth round pick? I saw it was for signing Gerrit Cole but why in particular was that reason to lose them? Tax stuff?
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 11, 2020 17:05:14 GMT -5
Just give me one high risk high reward arm. That’s all I need. I remember Michael Kopech day on the farm and I miss it guys. Just one arm where Keith law doesn’t dismissively snort and say reliever.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2020 17:05:25 GMT -5
Wait, why don't the Yankees have a second of fifth round pick? I saw it was for signing Gerrit Cole but why in particular was that reason to lose them? Tax stuff? • A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool. If such a team signs multiple qualifying offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well. The Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees exceeded the threshold in 2019. m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer#:~:text=While%20a%20team's%20highest%20first,who%20rejected%20a%20qualifying%20offer.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 11, 2020 17:07:03 GMT -5
Rays take MA native, Ian Seymour of Westboro.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 11, 2020 17:09:03 GMT -5
30 picks until the Blaze Jordan era begins
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 17:09:12 GMT -5
Jeff Criswell to the A's. One of my favorite R3 targets for the Sox if they would've went a traditional approach in the first.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 11, 2020 17:15:21 GMT -5
Dodgers with the first senior pick of the draft to close out Round 2. Shrewd move to save a little $ and get a quality player....wouldn't surprise me to see them spend some $ on pick #66.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 11, 2020 17:19:49 GMT -5
This is going to be a long evening. Don't worry your hopes that the Red Sox have some sort of master plan to reallocate a large amount of the slot allotment for the 17th pick will be quickly dashed and you can then go to bed early.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 11, 2020 17:23:50 GMT -5
Hence was one of the guys I had my eye on.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2020 17:24:12 GMT -5
It's almost like some of you are rooting against the Red Sox.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 11, 2020 17:29:20 GMT -5
Dodgers with the first senior pick of the draft to close out Round 2. Shrewd move to save a little $ and get a quality player....wouldn't surprise me to see them spend some $ on pick #66. You were right. Beeter is a nice get.
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