SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 MLB Draft
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 25, 2021 21:43:32 GMT -5
So, as a counter to the oft-discussed point that the best hitters are at the top of the draft, but you can "find" pitchers. Here are the active leaders in bWAR. Top 15 position pitchers, Top 15 pitchers. Pitchers -Grienke (6th overall pick) -Verlander (2nd overall) -Kershaw (7th overall) -Scherzer (11th overall) -Sale (13th overall) -Lester (2nd round/57th overall) -de Grom (9th round) -Wainwright (29th overall) -Price (1st overall) -Bumgarner (10th overall) -Kluber (4th round) -Strasburg (1st overall) -Cueto (International Free Agent) -Cole (1st overall) -E. Santana (International Free Agent) Position players -Pujols (13th round) -Trout (25th overall pick) -Cano (International Free Agent) -Cabrera (International Free Agent) -Votto (2nd round/44th overall) -Longoria (3rd overall) -Betts (5th round) -Goldschmidt (8th round) -McCutchen (11th overall) -Posey (5th overall) -Gardner (3rd round) -Arenado (2nd round/59th overall) -Stanton (2nd round/76th overall) -Donaldson (48th overall) -Machado (3rd overall) Very interesting. I think the complementary thing to this, though, is the boom/bust rate. What's your acceptable level of risk for a given strata? It's like Collazo's work last week - HS SS's have the highest potential of the four groups he looked at but they also had way more risk. At 4, you're hoping for a guy who winds up on this list, but I'm curious for later rounds what kinds of picks are more likely to become regulars. Do more eventual MLB regular arms (think 3-5 SP/late innings RP) slip to what's now day 2 or more bats (everyday regular, non-star)? Also WTAF is Gardner doing on that list? Or cano. Those hitters aren’t top hitters in game. Many are solid. But not top at all! Many of top ones are actually high international signings. Acuna, vlad, tatis, Xander, devers.....
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on May 25, 2021 21:56:08 GMT -5
Active bWAR leaders as stated. Pretty sure Chris was expressing surprise not disagreement.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 22:50:58 GMT -5
Yeah, it's surprising to me that Gardner is that high on an active career WAR leaderboard.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
|
Post by cdj on May 26, 2021 0:26:28 GMT -5
He’s been a superb LF over the course of his career with some absolutely monstrous defensive years. It’s a little weird seeing his name but he’s pretty much been an average bat + plus glove + plus arm + plus speed guy for like 14 years now
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 26, 2021 5:34:03 GMT -5
Very interesting. I think the complementary thing to this, though, is the boom/bust rate. What's your acceptable level of risk for a given strata? It's like Collazo's work last week - HS SS's have the highest potential of the four groups he looked at but they also had way more risk. At 4, you're hoping for a guy who winds up on this list, but I'm curious for later rounds what kinds of picks are more likely to become regulars. Do more eventual MLB regular arms (think 3-5 SP/late innings RP) slip to what's now day 2 or more bats (everyday regular, non-star)? Also WTAF is Gardner doing on that list? Or cano. Those hitters aren’t top hitters in game. Many are solid. But not top at all! Many of top ones are actually high international signings. Acuna, vlad, tatis, Xander, devers..... Bwar over past ____ years? Because there is no way even over last 4 years they have the best war! It’s statement not challenge. I’m sure you got the list someplace. It’s interesting data for sure.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 5:55:15 GMT -5
Or cano. Those hitters aren’t top hitters in game. Many are solid. But not top at all! Many of top ones are actually high international signings. Acuna, vlad, tatis, Xander, devers..... Bwar over past ____ years? Because there is no way even over last 4 years they have the best war! It’s statement not challenge. I’m sure you got the list someplace. It’s interesting data for sure. Active career leaders. It's just career WAR for active guys.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on May 26, 2021 6:46:41 GMT -5
That could be, but by some estimates more than 60% of players (speculation of course) were dipping into that same sauce as well, so who knows. If mostly "everyone" was doing something, including pitchers, perhaps the playing field was pretty even after all. 100% that's why I think punishing Bonds and Roger is laughable. And Bonds is a dbag in my book but he does not deserve to be judge diff then the rest of the era. Roger is a dbag also by most accounts.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 26, 2021 10:14:50 GMT -5
Bwar over past ____ years? Because there is no way even over last 4 years they have the best war! It’s statement not challenge. I’m sure you got the list someplace. It’s interesting data for sure. Active career leaders. It's just career WAR for active guys. Gotcha. Yeah that makes sense. I always look at who’s elite now because times have changed. It is an interesting piece of information
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on May 26, 2021 19:05:05 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 26, 2021 19:10:09 GMT -5
Sounds like a lot of draft speak for the Sox could go in just about any direction. With a month to go until the draft it's all just speculation I'm sure so can't blame him.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 26, 2021 19:50:54 GMT -5
Sounds like a lot of draft speak for the Sox could go in just about any direction. With a month to go until the draft it's all just speculation I'm sure so can't blame him. It is so funny. If Leiter is there, they might take him. If not, they might take Davis.... or a SS... or someone else. I could give this analysis and have literally paid no attention to amateur players.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on May 26, 2021 20:02:05 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 26, 2021 20:10:27 GMT -5
McLain I don't think I'd mind if Mayer and Lawlar are gone and they have him with a similar grade as house. Even though as he says it's speculation, Fabian would be total blah to me. Too much swing and miss.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 20:34:48 GMT -5
With a month to go until the draft 6.5 weeks, actually
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 26, 2021 20:43:46 GMT -5
With a month to go until the draft 6.5 weeks, actually I keep thinking the draft is the first week in July my bad. Thanks for keeping me honest.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on May 26, 2021 22:26:21 GMT -5
Only way I like this is if the Sox have the underslot guy as high as whoever's left from the Lawler/Mayer/Leiter/Davis group - or at least really close. Otherwise, I would rather they snag the elite talent. It's too rare they have a shot at a guy like that, and their farm system needs 50 FV guys, not depth.
|
|
|
Post by southcoastghost on May 26, 2021 22:50:02 GMT -5
Not saying I’d like it, but considering the two things they keep saying about this draft class is that it’s not great at the top and that it’s pretty deep, saving extra money early to spread it to later rounds does make at least some sense.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 26, 2021 23:02:53 GMT -5
Not saying I’d like it, but considering the two things they keep saying about this draft class is that it’s not great at the top and that it’s pretty deep, saving extra money early to spread it to later rounds does make at least some sense. Is that what they're saying? There's no true superstar surefire #1 pick but I think the fact that 1-6 are pretty interchangeable speaks to how good those six are, not because there's necessarily a weakness there. Probably not the best year to have #1, but a pretty good year to have 4-6 IMO.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on May 26, 2021 23:17:57 GMT -5
2 things are becoming Chrystal clear to me about chaim bloom and his admin. Draft strategy.
1). They are dead lip silent or vague showing they can go a number of ways.
2). They are going to take the guy THEY feel will help them have the beat COMPLETE draft at the end of the event. That doesn’t matter where he is ranked or where others rank him or what fans want.
Both of these you have to give them credit for. Will it work? Who knows. But gosh they are doing it the boeaton way. Not the fans way or mlb way or fangraphs way or anyone else. These drafts are a Boston Red Sox draft. And they are trusting both their scouts and the ability to flush through all the scout talk for the various players and gravy their guy as a whole
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,014
|
Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2021 3:57:39 GMT -5
Kevin Goldstein wrote a piece today laying out the odds for each of the top players to be drafted 1-1: Marcelo Mayer: 3-1 Jordan Lawlar: 3-1 Henry Davis: 5-1 Jack Leiter: 10-1 Kumar Rocker: 25-1 Brady House: 75-1 Also mentions Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser as possibilities to be selected in the top 5 for underslot deals. blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-draft-notebook-setting-the-odds-for-1-1/Doing the math here ...
.250 Mayer .250 Lawlar .167 Davis .091 Leiter .038 Rocker .013 House
Holy crap, that's a 19.1% chance that the Pirates will pass! That would be awesome.
More seriously, what he's trying to say without knowing it:
Marcelo Mayer: 7-3 Jordan Lawlar: 7-3 Henry Davis: 4-1 Jack Leiter: 8-1 Kumar Rocker: 20-1 Brady House: 60-1
|
|
|
Post by philarhody on May 27, 2021 5:14:04 GMT -5
I’ve kind of wondered for awhile how underslot Frelick would be at 4. I wouldn’t hate the pick. He seems about as sure a thing as there is in this draft.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,119
|
Post by jimoh on May 27, 2021 6:12:38 GMT -5
McLain I don't think I'd mind if Mayer and Lawlar are gone and they have him with a similar grade as house. Even though as he says it's speculation, Fabian would be total blah to me. Too much swing and miss. This is the first time I've heard of Colten Cowser as a possibility. Small school at Sam Houston State, but seems to have size (6' 3"), speed, arm, chance to stay in CF (some 3b as frosh), LH bat, (some) power, patience, hits to all fields. Choosing him would require a lot of faith in your scouts' ability to judge his potential based on his performance hitting against lesser competition. wikipedia: "The Seattle Mariners selected [CF and 2020 ROY Kyle] Lewis [of Mercer University] with the 11th overall pick in the 2016 Major League Baseball draft." 6'4"
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on May 27, 2021 7:27:55 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 27, 2021 8:11:42 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/Harry Ford at 5 is a hot take. I get saving some money, and not worrying if you've got the position filled at the major league level... but damn
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on May 27, 2021 8:24:58 GMT -5
Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA theathletic.com/2613518/2021/05/27/2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-kumar-rocker-to-red-sox-pirates-go-with-a-catcher-at-no-1-in-keith-laws-first-look/Harry Ford at 5 is a hot take. I get saving some money, and not worrying if you've got the position filled at the major league level... but damn FWIW, in Law's mind, it's not THAT hot of a take bc he has Ford as his #9 prospect based on his 5/13 board. So while he does say in the article that it's based on the "current wisdom suggests that Baltimore will look to cut a deal that saves them a substantial amount of money . . .", it's still aligned with the early discussion about below slot deals (not taking a player that is significantly lower on the board, just to save slot money for later). In his mind, Ford is right there but likely willing to deal.
|
|
|