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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 7:04:42 GMT -5
To build upon my point, I also think this is the year you do not cut a deal at the top. There is more fluidity between picks later in the first round and later rounds to do that, but you're picking 1-4, a position you haven't been at in 1/2 a century. Why would you cut yourself out of that elite tier of talent? You're not going to. Odds are, that high, the Sox have those guys ranked and I have to believe they're taking BPA and not moving down the list to save a few hundred thousand dollars.
Also, this draft is deep. Think of all the college juniors who went back to college last year. I would have to imagine the "senior sign" class is going to be super-deep. I suspect picks 3-10 are going to be very exciting for us. There is a chance to get some talent with potential in those rounds without having to throw 1st/2nd round money at people. And in some shape or form, they will find some money to throw around after the 10th round.
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Post by philarhody on Jun 14, 2021 7:14:44 GMT -5
I don't think it makes much sense for the Red Sox to "cut a deal" at the top. Now there seems to be some confusion in what it means to cut a deal so I will use an analogy to make my point. You have to buy a car, you have the money to afford the Porshce but some people in your position say you should buy the Honda Accord and use the rest of your money on something else. We are all (most of us) saying to go buy the Porchse. Now, that doesn't mean you walk right in and pay the sticker price, maybe you negotiate the price down a few thousand dollars. But you still went with the Porsche and not the Honda. Here's the point. When we talk about "cutting a deal" I think most of us envision signing a lesser talent and saving a significant chunk of change. Is it possible the Sox sign someone in that elite teir and save 200-600K in money? absolutely. But I doubt their game plan is to "cut a deal" and save some money. You have the #4 pick in the draft, you do your best to get the Porsche, and if you truly believe there is one guy on the board above the rest you pay the damn sticker price if you have to. Right. The decision isn’t a Porsche or a Honda. If it was, we wouldn’t be having this debate. It’s more like “is the Porsche a Porsche, or is it just a Honda with a Spoiler and rims with a Porsche price tag?” This draft is not super talented at the top. It’s deep once you get out of the 1st though.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 7:23:57 GMT -5
I don't think it makes much sense for the Red Sox to "cut a deal" at the top. Now there seems to be some confusion in what it means to cut a deal so I will use an analogy to make my point. You have to buy a car, you have the money to afford the Porshce but some people in your position say you should buy the Honda Accord and use the rest of your money on something else. We are all (most of us) saying to go buy the Porchse. Now, that doesn't mean you walk right in and pay the sticker price, maybe you negotiate the price down a few thousand dollars. But you still went with the Porsche and not the Honda. Here's the point. When we talk about "cutting a deal" I think most of us envision signing a lesser talent and saving a significant chunk of change. Is it possible the Sox sign someone in that elite teir and save 200-600K in money? absolutely. But I doubt their game plan is to "cut a deal" and save some money. You have the #4 pick in the draft, you do your best to get the Porsche, and if you truly believe there is one guy on the board above the rest you pay the damn sticker price if you have to. Right. The decision isn’t a Porsche or a Honda. If it was, we wouldn’t be having this debate. It’s more like “is the Porsche a Porsche, or is it just a Honda with a Spoiler and rims with a Porsche price tag?” This draft is not super talented at the top. It’s deep once you get out of the 1st though. There's a tier of guys at the top 5-7 guys. The concept of "cutting a deal" means you pass on one of those guys and sign someone who might otherwise not be in the top 10. I mean....It's a crude analogy man, take it for what it is.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 14, 2021 7:41:23 GMT -5
Right. The decision isn’t a Porsche or a Honda. If it was, we wouldn’t be having this debate. It’s more like “is the Porsche a Porsche, or is it just a Honda with a Spoiler and rims with a Porsche price tag?” This draft is not super talented at the top. It’s deep once you get out of the 1st though. There's a tier of guys at the top 5-7 guys. The concept of "cutting a deal" means you pass on one of those guys and sign someone who might otherwise not be in the top 10. I mean....It's a crude analogy man, take it for what it is. But philharody IS taking it for what it is. His point is that there may not be ANY Porsches in this draft. To the extent that that is true, or the organization believes it is true, the argument for saving money and spending it further down the draft makes more sense.
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Post by ocdss on Jun 14, 2021 7:48:04 GMT -5
I think there are 2 different scenarios that people are thinking about when they talk about at making a deal:
1. Go way under slot, taking some ranked > top 8 (call this Porsche vs Honda).
2. Shop between the top guys to see if they can get comparable talent at a slight savings that they can apply elsewhere (call this shopping between competing Porsche dealerships).
Say if Leiter is going to demand above slot at 4 (because he thinks he should get 1/1 money) and Davis will sign for $100 - $200k less then slot, who would you take (and I think you can apply this to any pair of guys in the top)? I personally like spreading the risk around any draft if possible using scenario #2, but I don’t think I’d default to Frelich in option #1 where the Sox are picking.
Edit: or pick whatever make and model of car you want to make the analogy work.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 14, 2021 7:52:43 GMT -5
I think there's a lot of overthinking going on right now. The Red Sox are picking 4th. One of the premier talents should be available, one that's very high on the Red Sox desired list. Whichever guy is left at 4, that's who'll they'll take. The guy they want the most. I don't think they're going to worry about slot, etc. Get the top talent. Hopefully, it'll be a long time before they're in a position to pick this high again. Unless you're very unimpressed by what's left by 4, and I doubt that's the case, then they'll jump on the boring, "best player available" guy.
In this scenario, which is a lot different, in which the Sox felt that had the pandemic hadn't occurred, they felt that Nick Yorke would have played himself into a 1st round pick, they knew they didn't have a second round pick, so they used that projection to their advantage, got Yorke for less than what the 17th pick would have gotten and used it to get their equivalent of the 2nd round draft pick in Jordan Blaze, that they didn't have. Last year was a much different drafting circumstance than this year.
Perhaps if they pick 30th, they may consider the underslot, etc, but I don't think they're going to screw around with that at pick #4. Whichever of Mayo, Davis, Lawlor, Leiter, Rocker hasn't been selected, they'll select.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 8:08:09 GMT -5
Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) 5. Baltimore Orioles: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 8:13:27 GMT -5
Ah, the Mock drafts have made a full rotation with Mayer/Lawlar back at the top. Can I just cryogenically freeze myself for the next 4 weeks???
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 8:34:59 GMT -5
This is just wrong. No one would have had their "head taken off" for suggesting last year that the Red Sox might save money on the 17th pick to spend more later. In fact, no one is HAVING THEIR HEAD TAKEN OFF for anything they say this year. You are simply being repeatedly disagreed with and shown to be wrong for your series of false claims and improbable suggestions. Yeah ok. Keep telling yourself that. “False claims”. “Improbable suggestions”. LOL. You mean the “false claims” you don’t agree with. Seems an entire publication was put down randomly and gosh come to find out someone worked for said publication because wait for it... some felt that publication wasn’t newsworthy enough. Hey I have a quick question: what team have you scouted for ever? What team have you worked in their admin offices? If it’s non then it’s same number I have and others have. It’s a prospect blog with great information from around the net. It’s a blog. Thoughts that differ from yours can be expressed without snide hey you know nothing context. You don’t agree with said remarks. Cool move on. Time will tell the truth on who’s right or wrong.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 8:39:27 GMT -5
4. Boston Red Sox: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven. EL: Yup.
The Boston effect or team effect if full force. I could definitely see Leiter doing this
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 14, 2021 8:51:15 GMT -5
Would NOT be upset if Leiter forced his way to #4.
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Post by jdb on Jun 14, 2021 9:09:16 GMT -5
Fangraphs also updated their board and has Leiter as the 54th prospect in baseball once he signs.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 9:15:35 GMT -5
Fangraphs also updated their board and has Leiter as the 54th prospect in baseball once he signs. Just for context, the other draft prospects that would be ranked are Mayer (50), Davis (51), Watson (64), and Lawlar (126).
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 14, 2021 9:30:48 GMT -5
Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) 5. Baltimore Orioles: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/How does one price themselves DOWN from a higher pick/slot in this case? Tex: I'll give you $8M (~$200K over slot). Leiter: I can get $9M (~$2.3M over Boston slot)? Is everyone at 1-3 shopping for deals so everyone would be lower? Is there a chance the highest bonus goes at 4? Has that happened under the new rules? (2021 slots for reference, per MLB)
1) Pirates: $8,415,300 2) Rangers: $7,789,900 3) Tigers: $7,221,200 4) Red Sox: $6,664,000 5) Orioles: $6,180,700
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 9:36:59 GMT -5
Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) 5. Baltimore Orioles: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/How does one price themselves DOWN from a higher pick/slot in this case? Tex: I'll give you $8M (~$200K over slot). Leiter: I can get $9M (~$2.3M over Boston slot)? Is everyone at 1-3 shopping for deals so everyone would be lower? Is there a chance the highest bonus goes at 4? Has that happened under the new rules? (2021 slots for reference, per MLB)
1) Pirates: $8,415,300 2) Rangers: $7,789,900 3) Tigers: $7,221,200 4) Red Sox: $6,664,000 5) Orioles: $6,180,700 I think your quarrel is with the semantics FG uses. He meant that Leiter is trying to price himself in such a way that he MOVES down to Boston. That would imply he's asking for more money.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 9:39:28 GMT -5
But for all we know that's a rumor being pushed by Detroit or Texas to prevent him from being taken #1 or #2. I don't think that's the case here, but it's not like these specific rumors get sourced directly. We really have no idea.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 9:40:12 GMT -5
Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) 5. Baltimore Orioles: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/How does one price themselves DOWN from a higher pick/slot in this case? Tex: I'll give you $8M (~$200K over slot). Leiter: I can get $9M (~$2.3M over Boston slot)? Is everyone at 1-3 shopping for deals so everyone would be lower? Is there a chance the highest bonus goes at 4? Has that happened under the new rules? (2021 slots for reference, per MLB)
1) Pirates: $8,415,300 2) Rangers: $7,789,900 3) Tigers: $7,221,200 4) Red Sox: $6,664,000 5) Orioles: $6,180,700 It’s happened all kinds of times throughout the draft. Basically player would say I won’t sign with you unless you give me x. Then when it comes to Red Sox he would take y. For years it has been done. Derek jeter openly talked about it when he signed in regards to the Yankees. Wil Myers talked to me personally about it. Bo bichette has it mentioned about him. Essentially they place a higher premium on those other teams OR let it be known that they won’t sign if that team selects them. Usually it comes with an agreed upon amount that the team they want to get to has agreed to sign them for. You know all this happens while players don’t have “agents”. But that’s essentially how it’s done
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Post by azblue on Jun 14, 2021 9:42:57 GMT -5
"4. Boston Red Sox: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven. EL: Yup."
Seems unlikely, but some players have done this before
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 9:44:59 GMT -5
But for all we know that's a rumor being pushed by Detroit or Texas to prevent him from being taken #1 or #2. I don't think that's the case here, but it's not like these specific rumors get sourced directly. We really have no idea. I disagree. Fangraphs and the author that wrote that very closely monitors his sources and usually has multiple sources telling him the same thing before he puts it out there. It certainly could happen for sure but it would ruin his relationship with that source. And he uses them for various things including his rankings of top prospects and shares them with espn contacts also. Fangraphs is one of the more “in tune” resources I’ve found for information in regards to draft content and prospect content.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 9:47:26 GMT -5
"4. Boston Red Sox: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven. EL: Yup." Seems unlikely, but some players have done this before Actually many MANY players have done this over the years. I can’t tell you how many players parents or players have sat and told us word for word that’s exactly what they have done.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 9:51:42 GMT -5
But for all we know that's a rumor being pushed by Detroit or Texas to prevent him from being taken #1 or #2. I don't think that's the case here, but it's not like these specific rumors get sourced directly. We really have no idea. I disagree. Fangraphs and the author that wrote that very closely monitors his sources and usually has multiple sources telling him the same thing before he puts it out there. It certainly could happen for sure but it would ruin his relationship with that source. And he uses them for various things including his rankings of top prospects and shares them with espn contacts also. Fangraphs is one of the more “in tune” resources I’ve found for information in regards to draft content and prospect content. I disagree with your disagreeing. Just because something turned out to be "wrong" doesn't mean someone was feeding false information. Rumors are just rumors, why do you think these boards change every other day? What these guys are hearing is constantly changing. You, nor I, really have any ideal specifically WHERE this information is coming from. And just to be clear I'm not saying that I believe this to be the case. I said "for all we know" for all we know means precisely that, that we don't specifically know.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2021 9:58:28 GMT -5
I mean just last year Martin got the second-highest bonus at no. 5.
I guess the way it'd work is Leiter wants like 1-1 money but then takes something lower to sign with Boston? He is, arguably, the one with the most leverage in this draft given that he can just go back and be a junior next year, although TINSTSAAPP and injury risk and whatnot.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 10:07:40 GMT -5
I disagree. Fangraphs and the author that wrote that very closely monitors his sources and usually has multiple sources telling him the same thing before he puts it out there. It certainly could happen for sure but it would ruin his relationship with that source. And he uses them for various things including his rankings of top prospects and shares them with espn contacts also. Fangraphs is one of the more “in tune” resources I’ve found for information in regards to draft content and prospect content. I disagree with your disagreeing. Just because something turned out to be "wrong" doesn't mean someone was feeding false information. Rumors are just rumors, why do you think these boards change every other day? What these guys are hearing is constantly changing. You, nor I, really have any ideal specifically WHERE this information is coming from. And just to be clear I'm not saying that I believe this to be the case. I said "for all we know" for all we know means precisely that, that we don't specifically know. Fair enough. I was saying I would be really surprised given their reputation and history. This is the publication that nailed the first 20+ picks on the draft a couple years ago. They really pride themselves on not being used that way. BUT you surely could be correct. It could definitely happen but I bet it would only happen once. Fangraphs prediction also goes with what the scout told me earlier this season about Detroit. But who knows. Fun 3 weeks ahead
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 10:13:35 GMT -5
A team could also call Leiters bluff. Ok we will pick you #3 and we're going to offer you 7 million and we think you will probably take that.
Yes, he could not be bluffing but 7 million is a lot to pass up. Look at what happened with Brady Aiken, he turned down the money and it ended up costing him $2.5 million. Again, I have no clue what I'm talking about but I'd be willing to bet teams have an idea if a guy is bluffing or not, and if they want to take him, they're going to take him and throw the money at him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 10:14:15 GMT -5
I disagree with your disagreeing. Just because something turned out to be "wrong" doesn't mean someone was feeding false information. Rumors are just rumors, why do you think these boards change every other day? What these guys are hearing is constantly changing. You, nor I, really have any ideal specifically WHERE this information is coming from. And just to be clear I'm not saying that I believe this to be the case. I said "for all we know" for all we know means precisely that, that we don't specifically know. Fair enough. I was saying I would be really surprised given their reputation and history. This is the publication that nailed the first 20+ picks on the draft a couple years ago. They really pride themselves on not being used that way. BUT you surely could be correct. It could definitely happen but I bet it would only happen once. Fangraphs prediction also goes with what the scout told me earlier this season about Detroit. But who knows. Fun 3 weeks ahead Agreed. I don't think that's the most likely scenario.
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