SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 MLB Draft
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 10:44:13 GMT -5
Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) 5. Baltimore Orioles: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/FYI - Kevin Goldstein is chatting about this mock at 12pm in case you have questions about what pricing him down to Boston means... blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-6-14-2021/
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 11:11:23 GMT -5
A couple tidbits from the chat referenced above:
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,014
|
Post by mobaz on Jun 14, 2021 11:16:35 GMT -5
I mean just last year Martin got the second-highest bonus at no. 5. I guess the way it'd work is Leiter wants like 1-1 money but then takes something lower to sign with Boston? He is, arguably, the one with the most leverage in this draft given that he can just go back and be a junior next year, although TINSTSAAPP and injury risk and whatnot. Thanks for your explanations, peeps. I figured I could look a little harder. MLB.com shows slots and signing bonuses in the same place for 2017-2020 (wasn't finding it fast elsewhere). Couldn't find earlier years. www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2020Pick 1 went under slot 2017/18/19 (avg. -650K). Last year was on slot. Picks 2 and 3 haven't gone over slot in the past 4 years; 4 out of the 8 were under slot (~-500K, -500K, -1.1M, -2.6M underslot) Pick 4 has been at slot the last 3 years; in 2017 Brendan McKay got +860k Pick 5 is all over the place: +1.3M, -650K, 0, +820K over the past 4 I'll post the table, though it's ugly. Pick 2017 2018 2019 2020
1 Bonus $6.73 $7.50 $8.10 $8.42 1 Delta Slot ($1.04) ($0.60) ($0.32) $0.00
2 Bonus $7.23 $7.03 $7.79 $5.20 2 Delta Slot $0.04 ($0.46) $0.00 ($2.59)
3 Bonus $6.70 $5.85 $7.22 $6.70 3 Delta Slot $0.03 ($1.10) $0.00 ($0.52)
4 Bonus $7.01 $6.41 $6.67 $6.67 4 Delta Slot $0.86 $0.00 $ 0.01 $0.01
5 Bonus $7.00 $5.30 $6.18 $7.00 5 Delta Slot $1.29 ($0.65) $0.00 $0.82
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jun 14, 2021 11:19:58 GMT -5
A couple tidbits from the chat referenced above: This sums up my thoughts. With Lawler, Mayer, Davis and Leiter the Sox will get one and I will be happy however it goes.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Jun 14, 2021 11:26:04 GMT -5
Checking out Fangraphs board for a guy they are super high on that we’d maybe able to get at 40. Aaron Zavala seems to be their darling ranked at 31. I don’t think baseball America or mlb.com has him ranked at all. I would kinda like this pick paired with the Leiter at 4 projection to sort of balance the risk. You can tell by the write up that they love the guy. www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Jun 14, 2021 11:27:24 GMT -5
Hell maybe even grab him with the third pick
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Jun 14, 2021 12:20:31 GMT -5
My Mock Draft (I know you've been waiting for it lol)
1.4: Kahlil Watson, ss, Wake Forrest, the ceiling is crazy high but it's risky
2.40: Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham, senior, under slot, crazy K rate, crazy WHIP, shortened arm action made the stuff jump significantly. Listen to his interview with the ProspectLive guys and he struck me as a gym rat well versed into experimenting new things (tunneling, pitch mechanics, etc)
3.75: Caedmon Parker, RHP, over slot TX prep arm, super advanced command (For me, it's always command for pitchers and hit tool for position players), TCU commit
4.105: Hagen Smith, LHP, over slot TX prep arm, recovered from TJ and had a great senior year in which he pitched 4 no-nos in his first 6 starts lmao. He's an Ark commit
5.136: Ty Evans, CF, over slot prep OF who the Sox have already invited to Fenway South for a workout, advanced hit tool, Florida commit
6.166: Tanner Allen, 1B?, Mississippi State, senior sign (we'll need a bunch of those), plus hit tool
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 14, 2021 12:36:59 GMT -5
So with the 4th pick clear (Leiter or Davis) lets focus on the later picks. Here is list of guys that caught my eyes while doing my thorough research armed with youtube and google obviously way better than a pro scouting department.
Dream guys (aka guys I don't see dropping to the 2nd round but you never know):
Joshua Baez Bubba Chandler Gavin Williams Peyton Stowall
More realistic options: Izaac Pacheco Wes Kath Alex Binales - Remember the talk of Jud Fabian figuring things out I think this guy also made some adjustments wouldn't be a bad 3rd round pick in my eyes. Braylon Bishop Edwin Arroyo Lonnie White Jr - Really like this guy. Penn State Football commit though. Alex Mooney McCade Brown.
There is a lot HS talent for the later rounds so it would ideal to start the draft with one of the college guys then go to work with all the HS talent available.
|
|
|
Post by kman22 on Jun 14, 2021 12:45:35 GMT -5
Checking out Fangraphs board for a guy they are super high on that we’d maybe able to get at 40. Aaron Zavala seems to be their darling ranked at 31. I don’t think baseball America or mlb.com has him ranked at all. I would kinda like this pick paired with the Leiter at 4 projection to sort of balance the risk. You can tell by the write up that they love the guy. www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0 The more I read about him, the more I hope he's there at 40 and the more I'm convinced he goes in the 1st round.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Jun 14, 2021 13:16:32 GMT -5
Checking out Fangraphs board for a guy they are super high on that we’d maybe able to get at 40. Aaron Zavala seems to be their darling ranked at 31. I don’t think baseball America or mlb.com has him ranked at all. I would kinda like this pick paired with the Leiter at 4 projection to sort of balance the risk. You can tell by the write up that they love the guy. www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0 The more I read about him, the more I hope he's there at 40 and the more I'm convinced he goes in the 1st round. I hear you man but…and please double check this… I don’t see him on any other board at all…like top 200
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 13:28:37 GMT -5
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Jun 14, 2021 13:30:10 GMT -5
Leiter can say "Hey if you pick me 1-3 I want extra $ or I go back to school." Except to us. Just a sophomore, by some measurements, right? Because of his dad's earnings, he both does not need $ to pay the rent and knows the big $ comes from being successful in the major leagues.
|
|
|
Post by ocdss on Jun 14, 2021 14:00:25 GMT -5
Why would he want to force his way to the Sox other than them offering him the most $? It’s not like our rep for developing pitchers is stellar, although in comparison to Pittsburg, Texas, or Detroit maybe it looks better?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2021 14:04:57 GMT -5
Why would he want to force his way to the Sox other than them offering him the most $? It’s not like our rep for developing pitchers is stellar, although in comparison to Pittsburg, Texas, or Detroit maybe it looks better? Maybe he likes Boston? Maybe he rhinks Boston gives him the best chance to win? Maybe it's a ruse to make sure he gets full slot? I dunno, even if it's true it's less crazy than Eli Manning not being willing to go to San Diego.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 14:09:31 GMT -5
Why would he want to force his way to the Sox other than them offering him the most $? It’s not like our rep for developing pitchers is stellar, although in comparison to Pittsburg, Texas, or Detroit maybe it looks better? Maybe he likes Boston? Maybe he rhinks Boston gives him the best chance to win? Maybe it's a ruse to make sure he gets full slot? I dunno, even if it's true it's less crazy than Eli Manning not being willing to go to San Diego. Market!! And team that wins often. Granted Texas might have as big of a market....but Boston market vs those other 3...no comparison. To play in the majors with the red sox means your part of the yankees rivalry and you play for a team that competes for championships with passionate fans. In long run, that means media exposure and eyes on you. This can mean higher free agent contracts or just being valued more. (does Benetendi get valued as much if he plays for say Tigers or A's putting up those numbers??) That last note is more my opinion...not based off research.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 14:10:59 GMT -5
Does anyone else feel a circus running around in their heads? I prefered Kumar over Leiter for so long but after so many mock drafts and posters putting Leiter over Rocker I really talked myself into liking Leiter better. Now I'm going back and looking over all the scouting reports today and thinking, could Rocker end up being the better guy long term? The drawback list for Rocker over Leiter doesn't seem terribly larger, and I could see him turning into an absolute beast of an ace if things break right for him.
I find myself in a similar conundrum with Davis vs. one of the high school shortstops. I was probably the last person on the Davis train and now I think he might be my #1 choice, but, again, I find myself dreaming of the 5 tool potential shortstop.
No one talks about Watson to the Sox, so I haven't even considered him but now I'm wondering does he potentially have the highest ceiling of the 4 HS SS at the top? IDK.
Honestly, some of you guys seem so set in stone in who you prefer over who and I envy you.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Jun 14, 2021 14:12:15 GMT -5
A couple tidbits from the chat referenced above:
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Jun 14, 2021 14:30:10 GMT -5
Ah thanks big man. So yeah maybe when baseball America and mlb do their next board update he will enter their top 200 with a vengeance. Still, an interesting very real possibility at 40.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 14:46:35 GMT -5
Ah thanks big man. So yeah maybe when baseball America and mlb do their next board update he will enter their top 200 with a vengeance. Still, an interesting very real possibility at 40. Most likely - I think MLB Pipeline is updating their list this week to expand out to 250 and BA will eventually update theirs when they expand out to 500.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2021 14:50:51 GMT -5
FWIW, another team could absolutely call Leiter's bluff. Not a top 5 situation, but the Red Sox did this with Groome, who had a deal to go to SD once he fell out of the top few picks.
It's a huge gamble to not sign when you're a top 4 pick. How much can you REALLY expect to improve your stock when you get picked in the top 3? It might be different if he fell even a little further but that's a hell of a risk.
Like if the Rangers really wanted him at 2, they could easily take him and offer him even like, $6.7M (what Max Meyer got), and he'd be pretty hard-pressed to say no to that. What're the odds he goes back to school and gets enough above that next year to make it worth waiting?
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 14:59:29 GMT -5
FWIW, another team could absolutely call Leiter's bluff. Not a top 5 situation, but the Red Sox did this with Groome, who had a deal to go to SD once he fell out of the top few picks. It's a huge gamble to not sign when you're a top 4 pick. How much can you REALLY expect to improve your stock when you get picked in the top 3? It might be different if he fell even a little further but that's a hell of a risk. Like if the Rangers really wanted him at 2, they could easily take him and offer him even like, $6.7M (what Max Meyer got), and he'd be pretty hard-pressed to say no to that. What're the odds he goes back to school and gets enough above that next year to make it worth waiting? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Rangers pick him at #2 and he does not sign they get the #3 pick next year correct? I'm not trying to discount the loss pick, 5% overage, and how that effects the rest of the draft but I would think that would put a big floor on the risk for a team like Texas to take him only for him to not sign. For Leiter there is no floor. He could go back to school and get hurt.
|
|
|
Post by kcbosox on Jun 14, 2021 15:19:00 GMT -5
If a players doesn’t sign (e.g. Leiter) does the team get to still use the slot money on other players, assuming the know before other picks?
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jun 14, 2021 15:20:39 GMT -5
Given dad's success, Leiter's money maximizing strategy may be focusing relatively more on increasing his chances of getting $300,000,000 in 8 years and relatively less on his draft bonus.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2021 15:22:43 GMT -5
If a players doesn’t sign (e.g. Leiter) does the team get to still use the slot money on other players, assuming the know before other picks? Nope.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Jun 14, 2021 15:24:02 GMT -5
I don’t think so, you lose that slot money and next year say if you didn’t sign pick 2 youd have pick 3 and the lesser slot money associated with the drop. But, if you think the top of the draft next year is going to be much much better…I don’t know.
|
|
|