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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2021 15:54:53 GMT -5
Yes, next year you get the next pick (e.g., "pick 2a" if you don't sign the #2 selection).
As to your point though, julyanmorley, signing this year also gets him to the big potential payday a year sooner than if he goes back to school. Only so many bullets in that arm...
Also we don't know he's trying to maximize a bonus by forcing his way to a team or anything - it's a rumor he's pricing himself to Boston but it could just be that he wants to play for a franchise that's closer to competing (and competes regularly). I'm just attributing standard logic that going back to school is an enormous risk for a pitcher picked in the top 3 if he's offered a legitimate bonus. It is fair to say it's a risk for the drafting team too, I just think more risk is with the player in that particular situation. I could certainly be missing something though.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 14, 2021 19:10:22 GMT -5
I think it means Leiter truly does want to play for the Red Sox. I don’t think he would do this if it was all about bonus money, because it makes it slightly less likely one of the top three takes him.
Yes, the Rangers or someone could take him and call his bluff but then Leiter gets paid pretty well in that scenario.
The main downside of this move is all four teams pass on Leiter and he ends up on the Orioles or something. Sounds like the likelihood of that happening is pretty low. Would have to be Mayer, Davis, Lawlar and Watson or something ahead of him.
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Post by jayhawk on Jun 14, 2021 19:48:07 GMT -5
A couple tidbits from the chat referenced above: Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 14, 2021 21:51:40 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. I like Davis' ability to command the strike zone a bit better than Bart's. I want to believe that I'm saying that just comparing how both looked coming out of college, but it's possible that Bart's slightly uneven beginning of career has colored that slightly. I'm no scout, but Davis has a feel for the outside of the plate in a way that I don't remember Bart having (and something I don't see in him now, given his occasional free-swinging/outside-chasing ways). Bart has already demonstrated serious power though, in a way we'd probably have to wait for Davis to progress through a system to compare to. I totally see the connection between them as advanced power bats with questions behind the plate / defensively though with enough athleticism to predict that they both should be able to stick there long term. Ultimately, I would be super happy if Davis got to the Red Sox at 4 and they picked him (I think he'd go higher than that right now, but I know jack about HS prospects - very difficult for non scouts to get eyes on I feel like).
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Post by kman22 on Jun 14, 2021 22:18:52 GMT -5
It feels like Leiter, Mayer, and Davis going top three would be worst case scenario, and even then, there's a lot of solid options that will be available to the Red Sox.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 2:30:21 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that
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Post by ocdss on Jun 15, 2021 5:25:22 GMT -5
It feels like Leiter, Mayer, and Davis going top three would be worst case scenario, and even then, there's a lot of solid options that will be available to the Red Sox. Watson or Rocker; I don’t like Lawler’s scouting reports as much, but this seems like the worst case scenario right now (from the FO’s POV, according to reports)
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jun 15, 2021 5:25:28 GMT -5
But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that So on the planet you're from if you get a top 15 hitting prospect you can just trade him for an ace? Cool!
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 15, 2021 5:45:19 GMT -5
Ah thanks big man. So yeah maybe when baseball America and mlb do their next board update he will enter their top 200 with a vengeance. Still, an interesting very real possibility at 40. Most likely - I think MLB Pipeline is updating their list this week to expand out to 250 and BA will eventually update theirs when they expand out to 500. Ok some more Zavala love
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 15, 2021 7:08:11 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that A little bit of perspective is fair. Bart only played in 130 minor league games before getting the call to the bigs. That's not even a full season and that strike out rate reflects a kid rushed to the majors in the SSS of 112 PA's. It's not like he's Bobby Dalbec who spent 3 full season in the minors and came out striking out a ton. Not comparing the players tools, just the sample size. Joey Bart could very well be a bust, but there's still every reason in the world to be optimistic about him. He's a highly regarded prospect with a ton of upside and many teams would love to have a kid like him right now.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 15, 2021 7:22:32 GMT -5
It feels like Leiter, Mayer, and Davis going top three would be worst case scenario, and even then, there's a lot of solid options that will be available to the Red Sox. If that happened, could you draft Rocker with the plan to deal him at the end of the year. A team below us may have the hots for him and drafts too low. We draft him and flip him for an established arm. Youngish one. Damn, I wish MLB allowed you to trade picks.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 15, 2021 7:32:35 GMT -5
Who is ready for the 2021 MLB draft? Maybe too soon, but regardless, here's a link to Kiley McDaniel's way-too-early 2021 mlb draft rankings via ESPN. I won't give away too much behind the paywall, but here's the top 10 from these rankings: 1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt, 50 FV 2. Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA), 45+ FV 3. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt, 45 FV 4. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU, 45 FV 5. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida, 45 FV 6. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX), 45 FV 7. Luke Leto, SS, Portage Central HS (MI), 45 FV 8. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville, 45 FV 9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami, 45 FV 10. Ethan Wilson, LF, South Alabama, 45 FV A lot has changed in a year.... This is a reminder that these guys are unfinished prospects with a long way to go so don't argue to vehemently about who you want or don't want as none of us knows what these guys are going to become. Rather enjoy the moment and opportunity as it may not come for another 50 years, this thread is a great example of how interesting the moment is.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 15, 2021 8:57:06 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 9:14:09 GMT -5
But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that So on the planet you're from if you get a top 15 hitting prospect you can just trade him for an ace? Cool! And while your snide remark is so comical. Tell me which trade deadline you’ve been watching that you can’t? I don’t know which game you’ve been watching over years but what was trade value of verlander? Grenkie? Bauer? Cole? Darvish? Snell? I’ll wait while you research those recent trades and tell me what top 15 prospect was traded in those deals. And I’ll even help you out.... NONE!! So yeah a top 15 prospect would net you a pretty pitcher that one could argue is an ace.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 9:15:59 GMT -5
It feels like Leiter, Mayer, and Davis going top three would be worst case scenario, and even then, there's a lot of solid options that will be available to the Red Sox. If that happened, could you draft Rocker with the plan to deal him at the end of the year. A team below us may have the hots for him and drafts too low. We draft him and flip him for an established arm. Youngish one. Damn, I wish MLB allowed you to trade picks. I argued that exact thing earlier. We will be left with an impact prospect per rankings no matter what more than likely.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 10:01:35 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that Two things:
1) What you seem to be demonstrating is that a Zunino-type outcome is within the range of reasonable possibility for Davis, which, yes, of course it is. Completely washing out is within the realm of possibility for any prospect. Who could they draft who wouldn't be similarly risky?
2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino.
We all agree it would be real cool to get a franchise player with this pick, but I think your perspective is a little skewed on how likely that is, as well as the odds that any single player in this draft turns into such a player.
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Post by jmei on Jun 15, 2021 10:04:59 GMT -5
That perspective is really valuable. The median fourth pick is something like a below-average regular or high-end bench player. Expecting to get a franchise player out of that pick is just a recipe for disappointment.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 15, 2021 10:10:15 GMT -5
And as of now many have Lawler falling outside of the top 3. Although I have been in the Davis and anybody who is there club, I have to say after some research that a top 10 prep SS is a pretty good bet to be a stud that would be tough to pass up. In Chaim I trust.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 15, 2021 10:13:52 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that I don't really get your point here. The quote from KG was not saying that Davis and Bart were the same player, just that they would be similarly valued prospects. When you consider that Bart is a ~Top 50 prospect in baseball (FG seems to have him the lowest of the major pubs at 51 currently) and has already played in the Majors that's pretty darn good. Fangraphs, who made the comparison you think makes him look so bad, has Davis the number two prospect in the draft. In fact, Davis and Bart's reports on FG are essentially opposites. Davis' is all about his potential defensive weaknesses while praising his contact and power and calls out an all-star type player if he can clean up the defense. If you look at the 50 FV shortstop prospects, which you seem to be clamoring for, that would be ranked in the same neighborhood as Lawlar you get Jacob Amaya, ranked 126 now, exactly where Lawlar would be, the report is: "A $250,000 11th rounder from a high school east of Los Angeles, Amaya is a diminutive infielder with excellent secondary skills. Though not especially rangy at shortstop, he has plus hands and actions, and enough arm strength to stay on the left side of the infield. Amaya comes off as a utility guy during a quick glance because of a lack of BP power and physical projection, but he has a great eye for the strike zone, as well as an idea of which pitches he can drive. He's got a short, punchy swing you can't just beat with velo. He'll hit a bunch of doubles. Instinctive and fundamentally sound, I have Amaya projected as an everyday shortstop." Not exactly an earth shattering report. My point is not to compare Lawlar and Amaya, but that you can't just look at similarly ranked players at the same position and say that we shouldn't take a player because he might be like that guy.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2021 10:15:26 GMT -5
2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino. Not sure if you missed him or left him off intentionally, but Gavin Floyd should also be in this group. It's also worth noting that fangraphs and B-Ref do diverge pretty notably on Zunino, particularly the defense. But I think that's illustrative too - it really just slides him with that next group down alongside Jeffrey Hammonds, Dmitri Young, Billy Koch, Kyle Schwarber. And again, it's interesting to note that there aren't really "types" that predict success here. The good picks don't really resemble each other. The best #4 picks of all time are Barry Larkin drafted a shortstop, Kevin Brown drafted as a pitcher, and Dave Winfield who was taken as a pitcher as well as a football and basketball player. www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0Focusing on types or fit or whatever rather than just trying to find the best player doesn't make any sense.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 10:16:23 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2021 10:18:22 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising? Given that BA still has him at #1, I really wonder if it's just more reports and rankings being released by people who didn't love him as much in the first place?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 10:27:05 GMT -5
2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino. Not sure if you missed him or left him off intentionally, but Gavin Floyd should also be in this group. I left Floyd off because his WAR total, while comparable to Zunino's, was over a complete 10-year career, whereas Zunino is presumably still adding to his. But yes, a guy who had about a 3-year stretch as a slightly above average starter and a 4.37 career ERA probably was the 5th or 6th most successful #4 pick in the last 30 years.
I am making myself a little sad now.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 15, 2021 10:35:41 GMT -5
There is a Vermonter on the BA 500 - Owen Kellington, a HS RHP from Montpelier committed to UConn - if Chaim doesn't pick him this draft is a failure.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 15, 2021 10:46:16 GMT -5
There is a Vermonter on the BA 500 - Owen Kellington, a HS RHP from Montpelier committed to UConn - if Chaim doesn't pick him this draft is a failure. I live a town over from where he went to high school. He was a cheat code for them this year. Gets into the 90s with a solid curveball. I know they had scouts at one of his games so there's a chance!
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