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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 15, 2021 10:47:01 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising? Given that BA still has him at #1, I really wonder if it's just more reports and rankings being released by people who didn't love him as much in the first place? I think just the schedule had a lot to do with it. Lawlar really performed well at the summer showcases. House didn’t (though picked it up in the fall). Mayer was largely absent over the summer due to covid (showed up in fall), and while Watson was awesome he was kinda the late riser, less established. Rankings came out and Lawlar was number 1. However his spring season started really early and he struggled with strikeouts and his hit tool was supposed to be unmatched. He was also older than everybody. He corrected himself the second half but…he only had 4 dingers as a senior (I’m told it’s a very good league). Then Mayer’s season got started with pull power being his question mark and he starts annihilating the ball pull side. Watson in his late season start already has more homers than Lawlar and Mayer and Watson’s strikeouts remain super low. This is nitpicking but when your talking about the number 1 pick and the guy that’s the oldest of the HS kids who has a reputation for maturity in the box and a plus plus hit tool who you hope develops power….racks up the strikeouts for half a season and shows very little over the fence pop…well…mild anti helium. In my opinion. I’d still be very interested at 4 honestly.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 11:10:57 GMT -5
Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that A little bit of perspective is fair. Bart only played in 130 minor league games before getting the call to the bigs. That's not even a full season and that strike out rate reflects a kid rushed to the majors in the SSS of 112 PA's. It's not like he's Bobby Dalbec who spent 3 full season in the minors and came out striking out a ton. Not comparing the players tools, just the sample size. Joey Bart could very well be a bust, but there's still every reason in the world to be optimistic about him. He's a highly regarded prospect with a ton of upside and many teams would love to have a kid like him right now. You are probably right. Not sure I agree on upside but as I’ve said many times. 5 years will tell. And for Bart 2-3. He definitely didn’t have a large sample size in minors.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 11:21:03 GMT -5
Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that Two things:
1) What you seem to be demonstrating is that a Zunino-type outcome is within the range of reasonable possibility for Davis, which, yes, of course it is. Completely washing out is within the realm of possibility for any prospect. Who could they draft who wouldn't be similarly risky?
2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino.
We all agree it would be real cool to get a franchise player with this pick, but I think your perspective is a little skewed on how likely that is, as well as the odds that any single player in this draft turns into such a player.
Every player can flame out. I’m saying I draft highest ceiling within reason of their floor. From what I’ve seen this catchers ceiling isn’t overly high. He’s basically compared to zunino for gosh sakes. Ild much rather have the shortstop who is compared to a Bobby Witt or the guy compared to a kris Bryant. Ild much rather draft to succeed than draft to not fail ( with this pick). Others will disagree. Time will tell. And obviously I haven’t seen all of them play nor know salary demands or what they see on video. So time will tell. As much as we all like to play fantasy if I was gm .... or it’s smart to do x.... time will tell who’s right.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 15, 2021 11:36:06 GMT -5
Dyoungteach have you jumped on the Watson train with me or are you still a House guy?
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 11:45:37 GMT -5
Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that I don't really get your point here. The quote from KG was not saying that Davis and Bart were the same player, just that they would be similarly valued prospects. When you consider that Bart is a ~Top 50 prospect in baseball (FG seems to have him the lowest of the major pubs at 51 currently) and has already played in the Majors that's pretty darn good. Fangraphs, who made the comparison you think makes him look so bad, has Davis the number two prospect in the draft. In fact, Davis and Bart's reports on FG are essentially opposites. Davis' is all about his potential defensive weaknesses while praising his contact and power and calls out an all-star type player if he can clean up the defense. If you look at the 50 FV shortstop prospects, which you seem to be clamoring for, that would be ranked in the same neighborhood as Lawlar you get Jacob Amaya, ranked 126 now, exactly where Lawlar would be, the report is: "A $250,000 11th rounder from a high school east of Los Angeles, Amaya is a diminutive infielder with excellent secondary skills. Though not especially rangy at shortstop, he has plus hands and actions, and enough arm strength to stay on the left side of the infield. Amaya comes off as a utility guy during a quick glance because of a lack of BP power and physical projection, but he has a great eye for the strike zone, as well as an idea of which pitches he can drive. He's got a short, punchy swing you can't just beat with velo. He'll hit a bunch of doubles. Instinctive and fundamentally sound, I have Amaya projected as an everyday shortstop." Not exactly an earth shattering report. My point is not to compare Lawlar and Amaya, but that you can't just look at similarly ranked players at the same position and say that we shouldn't take a player because he might be like that guy. That’s assuming he would be a 50 grade prospect. I’ve seen lawyer compared to Witt. That’s a 55 - 60 grade prospect. From Witt to abrams to Austin Martin last year. To Royce Lewis. To .... the reason you don’t see 50 grade prospects is because the high drafted shortstops aren’t just 50 grade prospects.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 11:49:31 GMT -5
Dyoungteach have you jumped on the Watson train with me or are you still a House guy? I’m indifferent. I’ve seen great reports about him and seen abrams comparisons. If I had to pick one Ild probably choose Watson as he would seem to stick at shortstop. And then hope and pray house doesn’t burn me to bad.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 11:51:29 GMT -5
Two things:
1) What you seem to be demonstrating is that a Zunino-type outcome is within the range of reasonable possibility for Davis, which, yes, of course it is. Completely washing out is within the realm of possibility for any prospect. Who could they draft who wouldn't be similarly risky?
2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino.
We all agree it would be real cool to get a franchise player with this pick, but I think your perspective is a little skewed on how likely that is, as well as the odds that any single player in this draft turns into such a player.
Every player can flame out. I’m saying I draft highest ceiling within reason of their floor. From what I’ve seen this catchers ceiling isn’t overly high. He’s basically compared to zunino for gosh sakes. Ild much rather have the shortstop who is compared to a Bobby Witt or the guy compared to a kris Bryant. Ild much rather draft to succeed than draft to not fail ( with this pick). Others will disagree. Time will tell. And obviously I haven’t seen all of them play nor know salary demands or what they see on video. So time will tell. As much as we all like to play fantasy if I was gm .... or it’s smart to do x.... time will tell who’s right. Okay, granting your high-ceiling strategy... I still think Davis has as high a ceiling as anyone? He's the best college hitter in the draft, and he projects to stick at the position where offense offers the greatest surplus value. I know that you're appalled at this transitive Davis->Bart->Zunino comparison, but is there any reason to think Zunino is Davis' ceiling?
Meanwhile, I just don't see a higher ceiling out there. Not in Mayer or Lawlar. Maybe Watson? Jobe?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 15, 2021 11:55:49 GMT -5
I don't really get your point here. The quote from KG was not saying that Davis and Bart were the same player, just that they would be similarly valued prospects. When you consider that Bart is a ~Top 50 prospect in baseball (FG seems to have him the lowest of the major pubs at 51 currently) and has already played in the Majors that's pretty darn good. Fangraphs, who made the comparison you think makes him look so bad, has Davis the number two prospect in the draft. In fact, Davis and Bart's reports on FG are essentially opposites. Davis' is all about his potential defensive weaknesses while praising his contact and power and calls out an all-star type player if he can clean up the defense. If you look at the 50 FV shortstop prospects, which you seem to be clamoring for, that would be ranked in the same neighborhood as Lawlar you get Jacob Amaya, ranked 126 now, exactly where Lawlar would be, the report is: "A $250,000 11th rounder from a high school east of Los Angeles, Amaya is a diminutive infielder with excellent secondary skills. Though not especially rangy at shortstop, he has plus hands and actions, and enough arm strength to stay on the left side of the infield. Amaya comes off as a utility guy during a quick glance because of a lack of BP power and physical projection, but he has a great eye for the strike zone, as well as an idea of which pitches he can drive. He's got a short, punchy swing you can't just beat with velo. He'll hit a bunch of doubles. Instinctive and fundamentally sound, I have Amaya projected as an everyday shortstop." Not exactly an earth shattering report. My point is not to compare Lawlar and Amaya, but that you can't just look at similarly ranked players at the same position and say that we shouldn't take a player because he might be like that guy. That’s assuming he would be a 50 grade prospect. I’ve seen lawyer compared to Witt. That’s a 55 - 60 grade prospect. From Witt to abrams to Austin Martin last year. To Royce Lewis. To .... the reason you don’t see 50 grade prospects is because the high drafted shortstops aren’t just 50 grade prospects. It's not an assumption, right now Fangraphs, which you based all of your takedown of Davis on, has him as a 50 grade prospect, and in fact has no shortstop in this draft better than a 50 grade prospect.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jun 15, 2021 11:56:32 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 15, 2021 12:06:41 GMT -5
Sox worked out BA#26 Will Taylor, the big time 2-sport Clemson recruit at JetBlue. link
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jun 15, 2021 12:21:21 GMT -5
That perspective is really valuable. The median fourth pick is something like a below-average regular or high-end bench player. Expecting to get a franchise player out of that pick is just a recipe for disappointment. This is right in general, and important to remember, but isn't it also true that most #4 picks are made by incompetent organizations that lose year after year, in part because of their poor ability to pick players, and we hope we are not one of those?
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 15, 2021 12:27:50 GMT -5
Sox worked out BA#26 Will Taylor, the big time 2-sport Clemson recruit at JetBlue. linkKinda of interesting right. I mean given his placement on most boards. I think the only way they get him is overslot/underslot somewhere else move.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 15, 2021 12:47:57 GMT -5
That perspective is really valuable. The median fourth pick is something like a below-average regular or high-end bench player. Expecting to get a franchise player out of that pick is just a recipe for disappointment. Ouch, I think their will be some disappointed people if that ends up being the case.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2021 12:51:49 GMT -5
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 15, 2021 13:02:37 GMT -5
Sox worked out BA#26 Will Taylor, the big time 2-sport Clemson recruit at JetBlue. linkKinda of interesting right. I mean given his placement on most boards. I think the only way they get him is overslot/underslot somewhere else move. I agree. The article mentions he is moving into Clemson next week, I think he's one of those HS pre-draft "tough signs", he's probably given a pretty high number to most teams, and I bet its certain that he'll fall out of the top 10 rounds. BTW, the bonus pools work the same this year, even with the truncated draft, right? Specially, If they don't sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, they forfeit that slot $, and post round 10 the first 125K doesn't count towards their pool?
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 13:13:39 GMT -5
That’s assuming he would be a 50 grade prospect. I’ve seen lawyer compared to Witt. That’s a 55 - 60 grade prospect. From Witt to abrams to Austin Martin last year. To Royce Lewis. To .... the reason you don’t see 50 grade prospects is because the high drafted shortstops aren’t just 50 grade prospects. It's not an assumption, right now Fangraphs, which you based all of your takedown of Davis on, has him as a 50 grade prospect, and in fact has no shortstop in this draft better than a 50 grade prospect. I'm talking at beginning of next year...when next top 100 are released. I guess I'll place this bet. Mayer and Lawyer will be both above a 50 grade prospect going into next year. And that's counting on the fact that BOTH just might not play any organized baseball after the draft. As I've said..time will tell who's right or not. You have your Davis...others had their Vanderbilt pitcher....I'll stick to my shortstops. We shall see who's right or wrong...even over 2 years. I wasn't a fan of Rutshman either and as the top 2 prospect in the game...I was wrong there. I do value Fangraphs over other publications. Anyways..good luck with your Davis. I'll hope that Lawyer or Mayer slides to us and watch their trajectory if they do but we dont pick them. Let's call a spade a spade....from all information I'ld have to place money on Leiter being our pick (with him wanting to push down to us). Unless something drastically changes over the next 3.5 weeks...I'ld bet we are taking said pitcher.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 15, 2021 13:15:44 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising? 19% K rate in high school could be considered a weakness.
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Post by bucksmatthew on Jun 15, 2021 13:24:41 GMT -5
talk about buzz-kill.......
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2021 14:35:17 GMT -5
What explains the mild anti-helium on Lawlar, by the way? Have estimations of him gone down or is it just that other guys are rising? 19% K rate in high school could be considered a weakness. The thing is, he had a slump early in the season when he struck out a bunch, which was pretty understandable considering the layoff, then a stretch of gradual improvement, and he finished with just one strikeout in his last 15 games. And he was walking a ton in that stretch and hitting great, so it wasn't like he suddenly got all overaggressive. Here's the game log: jesuitrangers.org/sports/baseball/roster/jordan-lawlar/6318
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jun 15, 2021 14:50:44 GMT -5
Two things: 1) What you seem to be demonstrating is that a Zunino-type outcome is within the range of reasonable possibility for Davis, which, yes, of course it is. Completely washing out is within the realm of possibility for any prospect. Who could they draft who wouldn't be similarly risky? 2) Zunino has had a 15 fWAR career so far, which is already well above the median outcome for a #4 pick. In fact the only #4 picks that have had better careers than Zunino since 1990 are Ryan Zimmerman (2005 pick) and Kerry Wood (1995). Gausman (2012) and maaaybe Bundy (2011) have been comparable to Zunino. We all agree it would be real cool to get a franchise player with this pick, but I think your perspective is a little skewed on how likely that is, as well as the odds that any single player in this draft turns into such a player.
Every player can flame out. I’m saying I draft highest ceiling within reason of their floor. From what I’ve seen this catchers ceiling isn’t overly high. He’s basically compared to zunino for gosh sakes. Ild much rather have the shortstop who is compared to a Bobby Witt or the guy compared to a kris Bryant. Ild much rather draft to succeed than draft to not fail ( with this pick). Others will disagree. Time will tell. And obviously I haven’t seen all of them play nor know salary demands or what they see on video. So time will tell. As much as we all like to play fantasy if I was gm .... or it’s smart to do x.... time will tell who’s right. Yeah, I'm sure "who they're compared to in the press" will be the main criterion the Sox use.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 15, 2021 15:19:19 GMT -5
I’m sorry, but a guy whose ceiling is a bat in the middle of your lineup isn’t a low ceiling. Davis has plenty of ceiling.
Nothing wrong with wanting any of the other guys over him but Davis is a premium talent.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 15, 2021 15:22:11 GMT -5
19% K rate in high school could be considered a weakness. The thing is, he had a slump early in the season when he struck out a bunch, which was pretty understandable considering the layoff, then a stretch of gradual improvement, and he finished with just one strikeout in his last 15 games. And he was walking a ton in that stretch and hitting great, so it wasn't like he suddenly got all overaggressive. Here's the game log: jesuitrangers.org/sports/baseball/roster/jordan-lawlar/6318Hey I like him and agree with assessment and the log tells the tale. He steadied the ship and should be commended for that. But the fact that his peers came out blazing and they were all younger than him…I think just evened the playing field a bit (still ranked #1 in Baseball America, so). He may, have gotten a little over aggressive early in the season with the Ks, or maybe just rust. Everyone I believe still thinks the hit tool is plus and that he stays at SS long term and some even think Mayer may outgrow the position one day. I also love Lawlar’s speed and think that will really enhance his power numbers. I’d take him at 4 in a heartbeat because his floor seems to be good SS with good batting average and a lot of doubles.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2021 15:58:59 GMT -5
Kinda of interesting right. I mean given his placement on most boards. I think the only way they get him is overslot/underslot somewhere else move. I agree. The article mentions he is moving into Clemson next week, I think he's one of those HS pre-draft "tough signs", he's probably given a pretty high number to most teams, and I bet its certain that he'll fall out of the top 10 rounds. BTW, the bonus pools work the same this year, even with the truncated draft, right? Specially, If they don't sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, they forfeit that slot $, and post round 10 the first 125K doesn't count towards their pool? Unsure about the $125k in rounds 11-20 part.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 15, 2021 16:08:16 GMT -5
Yet another reason to allow teams to trade draft picks and the money that comes with the slot for prospects and MLB talent. The hype is almost always greater than the return, and the hype will never be greater than on draft night. Why not let teams leverage that in the first 4 to 5 rounds if they so choose, and either acquire MLB talent, or near-MLB talent for picks and their slotted cash? It would be a great way for teams to stock picks if they want, while other teams can become more competitive more quickly.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 16:13:31 GMT -5
Every player can flame out. I’m saying I draft highest ceiling within reason of their floor. From what I’ve seen this catchers ceiling isn’t overly high. He’s basically compared to zunino for gosh sakes. Ild much rather have the shortstop who is compared to a Bobby Witt or the guy compared to a kris Bryant. Ild much rather draft to succeed than draft to not fail ( with this pick). Others will disagree. Time will tell. And obviously I haven’t seen all of them play nor know salary demands or what they see on video. So time will tell. As much as we all like to play fantasy if I was gm .... or it’s smart to do x.... time will tell who’s right. Yeah, I'm sure "who they're compared to in the press" will be the main criterion the Sox use. Taking into account your snide tone again....we aren't talking about who the sox will draft...UNLESS YOU WORK FOR THEM?? We are talking about our thoughts and why we feel that way. Who's right in your very obvious "putdown" mentality vs my hey this is my thought and I'm not going to be pushed to feel another way mentality....well we can debate that in 5 years. Start a spreadsheet if you want...I could care less. But I don't think you need to have the tone you do...and if you do..well I guess you get what you give. Ya know?? For record...I will be shocked at this point if Leiter isn't the pick!! But I don't know if that's the best pick we might be able to make. But I'm like you..a fan. Now have a good day and cheer up...I haven't stolen your chicken..promise.
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