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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 16:14:15 GMT -5
I’m sorry, but a guy whose ceiling is a bat in the middle of your lineup isn’t a low ceiling. Davis has plenty of ceiling. Nothing wrong with wanting any of the other guys over him but Davis is a premium talent. He's definately rated as a premium talent in the draft right now. Let's see where he ends up.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 16:15:54 GMT -5
Yet another reason to allow teams to trade draft picks and the money that comes with the slot for prospects and MLB talent. The hype is almost always greater than the return, and the hype will never be greater than on draft night. Why not let teams leverage that in the first 4 to 5 rounds if they so choose, and either acquire MLB talent, or near-MLB talent for picks and their slotted cash? It would be a great way for teams to stock picks if they want, while other teams can become more competitive more quickly. I'm really hoping that this is agreed to after the year plus shutdown baseball could go through starting in December. It's gotten quite ugly between players and owners. Many changes they could make to draw in the next generation of passionate fans.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 15, 2021 16:22:38 GMT -5
I’m sorry, but a guy whose ceiling is a bat in the middle of your lineup isn’t a low ceiling. Davis has plenty of ceiling. Nothing wrong with wanting any of the other guys over him but Davis is a premium talent. He's definately rated as a premium talent in the draft right now. Let's see where he ends up. Yes he’s a premium talent in the draft and where he ends up is uncertain. As is Rocker, Leiter, Lawlar, Mayer, House, Wilson, Jobe, as are the other 600+ who are going to be drafted. If we draft him, let’s hope he’s a stud.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 16:33:09 GMT -5
I’m sorry, but a guy whose ceiling is a bat in the middle of your lineup isn’t a low ceiling. Davis has plenty of ceiling. Nothing wrong with wanting any of the other guys over him but Davis is a premium talent. He's definately rated as a premium talent in the draft right now. Let's see where he ends up. But do you have... I don't know... reasons for saying he has a lower ceiling than others?
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2021 16:41:36 GMT -5
Final update to this table: Here is a table comparing college catchers drafted in the top half of the 1st round over the past 10 years. I bolded the best three values (or 4 when there was a tie) for each metric. As it stands now, Davis is up there with the best of them in BA, making contact, and arm strength. Obviously, we don't expect SBs from the catcher position, but Davis should lead the pack here too by season's end and if nothing else, is an indicator of his athleticism. He doesn't quite have the power as the top guys although he hits the ball very hard with less loft than elite power hitters. His receiving needs work but scouts project improvement with time and some think he could end up average to plus here given his athleticism. Name | Team | Draft Year | Pick | PA | BA | ISO | BB% | K% | SB(CS) | MLB.com
Arm | MLB.com
Field | Henry Davis | Louisville | 2021 | N/A | 228 | .370 | .293 | 15.3% | 10.5% | 10(3) | 70 | 45 | Patrick Bailey | NC State | 2020 | 13 | 282 | .288 | .225 | 14.5% | 15.2% | 1(0) | 55 | 55 | Adley Rutschman | Oregon St. | 2019 | 1 | 266 | .411 | .340 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 0(2) | 60 | 60 | Shea Langeliers | Baylor | 2019 | 9 | 207 | .308 | .222 | 8.7% | 14.0% | 4(2) | 70 | 60 | Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | 2018 | 2 | 272 | .359 | .273 | 15.1% | 20.6% | 3(0) | 60 | 55 | Zach Collins | Miami | 2016 | 10 | 274 | .363 | .305 | 28.5% | 19.3% | 1(3) | 45 | 40 | Kyle Schwarber | Indiana | 2014 | 4 | 280 | .358 | .301 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 10(3) | 40 | 40 | Max Pentecost | Kennesaw St. | 2014 | 11 | 306 | .422 | .205 | 9.8% | 8.5% | 17(3) | 55 | 50 | Mike Zunino | Florida | 2012 | 3 | 292 | .322 | .347 | 10.6% | 16.1% | 9(1) | N/A | N/A |
Some relevant notes: - These are all stats from players' junior years with the exception of Bailey whose junior year was cut short by the pandemic. I used his sophomore year stats here, but worth noting his junior year stats look similar albeit with more power. - Rutschman's sophomore year was also a big one as he hit >.400 with more BB than K. His bat separates himself from his peers here. - Bart's freshman and sophomore years did not look good from an approach standpoint...his Ks greatly outweighed his BBs before walking a ton his junior year. - You all probably know that Schwarber has now become an OF/DH type and Collins who I believe still plays C/1B could move off the position as well. - Its also probably worth noting Pentecost's level of competition in the Atlantic Sun League isn't on par with the rest here. If anyone is interested in any other data I can add to the table...let me know as I'll probably update as we get closer to the draft.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 17:00:56 GMT -5
Uncannily similar numbers to Schwarber, but Davis projects better defensively. A Schwarber who could stick behind the plate would be a fantastic outcome, if you ask me.
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Post by jchang on Jun 15, 2021 17:04:18 GMT -5
for the top 30 Pick % MLB WAR/MLB WAR/pick 1 87% 22.7 19.7
2 85% 15.0 12.8
3 82% 13.3 10.9
4 80% 13.1 10.5
5 66% 11.2 7.4
6 73% 14.5 10.6
7 73% 10.3 7.5
8 65% 8.1 5.3
9 62% 8.3 5.1
10 82% 10.7 8.8
11 71% 6.9 4.9
12 60% 9.2 5.5
13 53% 12.0 6.4
14 71% 7.6 5.4
15 53% 9.5 5.0
16 69% 7.8 5.4
17 64% 9.1 5.8
18 57% 5.5 3.1
19 71% 9.7 6.9
20 60% 11.9 7.1
21 64% 4.5 2.9
22 64% 11.7 7.5
23 50% 6.8 3.4
24 62% 3.9 2.4
25 60% 6.9 4.1
26 48% 4.5 2.2
27 55% 3.9 2.1
28 64% 4.6 2.9
29 55% 8.6 4.7
30 55% 11.3 6.2
it would seem that screwing up the top 4 is hard. Probably more significant is the statistical variation. At #30, 55 picks, 31 played in majors, 351.2 WAR total, Mike Schmidt contributed 106.9. David Wells 53.4, 3 players over 30,
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 15, 2021 17:09:25 GMT -5
I’m by no means an expert, but if Davis can’t develop average to better defense I’d rather move him off Catcher. If he’s got plenty of bat that shouldn’t be an issue. I believe in the bat, and I think that’s why he’s ultimately ranked so high.
I really have no clue about his potential behind the plate, if we DO end up drafting him it will be interesting to get some advanced scouting on him. I’m sure more information will trickle in if he’s the guy and once we can see him in game action. I totally believe you keep him behind the plate to start his career.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 15, 2021 17:14:29 GMT -5
Love the passion on this site for the Sox to find a stud in the draft, it makes us all ONE.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 15, 2021 17:22:25 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm sure "who they're compared to in the press" will be the main criterion the Sox use. Taking into account your snide tone again....we aren't talking about who the sox will draft...UNLESS YOU WORK FOR THEM?? We are talking about our thoughts and why we feel that way. Who's right in your very obvious "putdown" mentality vs my hey this is my thought and I'm not going to be pushed to feel another way mentality....well we can debate that in 5 years. Start a spreadsheet if you want...I could care less. But I don't think you need to have the tone you do...and if you do..well I guess you get what you give. Ya know?? For record...I will be shocked at this point if Leiter isn't the pick!! But I don't know if that's the best pick we might be able to make. But I'm like you..a fan. Now have a good day and cheer up...I haven't stolen your chicken..promise. I do not criticize you for having an opinion, I criticize you for repeatedly (though not always) citing weak evidence to back up your opinion, in the hope that you will do this less.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 15, 2021 17:23:45 GMT -5
I’m by no means an expert, but if Davis can’t develop average to better defense I’d rather move him off Catcher. If he’s got plenty of bat that shouldn’t be an issue. I believe in the bat, and I think that’s why he’s ultimately ranked so high. I really have no clue about his potential behind the plate, if we DO end up drafting him it will be interesting to get some advanced scouting on him. I’m sure more information will trickle in if he’s the guy and once we can see him in game action. I totally believe you keep him behind the plate to start his career. To be clear, he's a potential weapon in the run defense area of defense with a 70 arm. He just needs work on blocking and framing. I think that's more teachable and he's athletic, so I think with proper coaching it's it's something he could get to average plus, at least. But a 70 arm!
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 15, 2021 17:38:16 GMT -5
I agree. The article mentions he is moving into Clemson next week, I think he's one of those HS pre-draft "tough signs", he's probably given a pretty high number to most teams, and I bet its certain that he'll fall out of the top 10 rounds. BTW, the bonus pools work the same this year, even with the truncated draft, right? Specially, If they don't sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, they forfeit that slot $, and post round 10 the first 125K doesn't count towards their pool? Unsure about the $125k in rounds 11-20 part. A few sources say he's right: "There are no slot values after the tenth round, as usual. Teams can spend up to $125K per pick in Rounds 11 through 20 without any money counting against their pool. Any dollars over that mark will count against a team’s pool." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/2021-mlb-draft-20-rounds.html
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Post by jayhawk on Jun 15, 2021 18:18:11 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that Comparing apples to apples, MLB has Davis as a 60 prospect. Better hit, worse power, better arm, worse glove. Without being a professional talent evaluator myself that feels in-line with the projections I've read elsewhere. A 60 overall projection would put him somewhere in the 6-15 overall range for MLB. While rankings don't hold that much weight in the grand scheme of things I think it's a solid indicator of the type of prospect we're talking about here.
My general sense is, position ignored, he was the best hitter in college this year and has a track record dating back to last year in which he was doing the same things, albeit in a shorter sample. If you told me the Sox could potentially grab the best college bat in the draft I'd say 'sign me up'. If you then added that he's a catcher I would actually consider that a positive. It sounds like you hear catcher and think of it as a negative.
I assume (though it's just that) that that's because shortstops are generally perceived as having more positional flexibility if they don't stick at the position. If we were talking about a 1B I'd be more inclined to agree, but a catcher who has the potential to stick at catcher with a plus bat, or move to 1B or DH without killing you, is still a pretty attractive prospect to me. I do think I'd rather have Mayer but he's probably the only HS SS I'd rather take than Davis. As you say, time will tell.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 15, 2021 18:22:38 GMT -5
Unsure about the $125k in rounds 11-20 part. A few sources say he's right: "There are no slot values after the tenth round, as usual. Teams can spend up to $125K per pick in Rounds 11 through 20 without any money counting against their pool. Any dollars over that mark will count against a team’s pool." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/2021-mlb-draft-20-rounds.htmlInteresting. So the move I think is to to load up on vastly underslot seniors in picks 6-10 (like 25k bonus) to create cap space to spend on pick two, then draft higher quality seniors picks 10-20, as you can spend $125,000 on those players.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 15, 2021 21:44:58 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline expanded their draft rankings out to 250. The top ten: 1. Mayer 2. Lawlar 3. Leiter 4. Watson 5. Davis 6. Rocker 7. House 8. Jobe 9. Madden 10. Cowser www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 15, 2021 21:53:54 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 15, 2021 22:17:36 GMT -5
Pipeline podcast: "We left the top of the board the same except moved Kahlil Watson was 8 to 4, people are flocking into see him and there's talk he could go 1 or 2."
"One assistant scouting director that analyzes a lot of data says Leiter has one of the best fastballs he's come across in any draft."
"Jobe's slider a bit ahead of Rocker's, he can put it where he wants, he can get misses in the zone, Rocker's is a chase pitch. I've had guys go in an see him and says 80 slider, 70 fastball, 70 changeup, 60 command. He grades out better than Leiter and Rocker, but they've dominated much better competition."
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 22:53:13 GMT -5
He's definately rated as a premium talent in the draft right now. Let's see where he ends up. But do you have... I don't know... reasons for saying he has a lower ceiling than others?
To me Joey Bart ceiling is much lower than Bobby witts. Those are the comparisons we are talking about. And I would say a number 3 starter or even hopefully number 2 starter ( in terms of Leiter) Ild say is higher than a Joey Bart. So that’s a much lower ceiling. If we are comparing him to the other Vanderbilt pitcher. Eh. I’ll take him every day all day.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 22:59:49 GMT -5
Taking into account your snide tone again....we aren't talking about who the sox will draft...UNLESS YOU WORK FOR THEM?? We are talking about our thoughts and why we feel that way. Who's right in your very obvious "putdown" mentality vs my hey this is my thought and I'm not going to be pushed to feel another way mentality....well we can debate that in 5 years. Start a spreadsheet if you want...I could care less. But I don't think you need to have the tone you do...and if you do..well I guess you get what you give. Ya know?? For record...I will be shocked at this point if Leiter isn't the pick!! But I don't know if that's the best pick we might be able to make. But I'm like you..a fan. Now have a good day and cheer up...I haven't stolen your chicken..promise. I do not criticize you for having an opinion, I criticize you for repeatedly (though not always) citing weak evidence to back up your opinion, in the hope that you will do this less. Accept it’s not weak evidence. That’s your assumption or opinion. And we both know what assumptions do! I’m going to be me. Who are you to say what’s can feel or how they can evaluate things? I’ve asked this 3x. What front office have you worked for?? What scouts have you worked with? From your lack of response I’m guessing non. Cool. Same as me. Others will differ from your thoughts. Move on. Not everyone has to think or be like you!! The world is a big place. Cool? Ok. Go Sox!
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Post by marrcus on Jun 15, 2021 23:01:30 GMT -5
I love the Pipeline top 3 from a RS perspective. Mayer, Leiter, but I think Davis will sub for Lawler. But who knows? RS getting to choose from Davis, Watson,Rocker, House, Jobe would be cool.
I suppose a ss gorge at 1-3 is possible if Watson moving up as the talk indicates but fine with me. Ideally #4 would have Davis, Leiter, House to chose from.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 15, 2021 23:13:40 GMT -5
Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that Comparing apples to apples, MLB has Davis as a 60 prospect. Better hit, worse power, better arm, worse glove. Without being a professional talent evaluator myself that feels in-line with the projections I've read elsewhere. A 60 overall projection would put him somewhere in the 6-15 overall range for MLB. While rankings don't hold that much weight in the grand scheme of things I think it's a solid indicator of the type of prospect we're talking about here.
My general sense is, position ignored, he was the best hitter in college this year and has a track record dating back to last year in which he was doing the same things, albeit in a shorter sample. If you told me the Sox could potentially grab the best college bat in the draft I'd say 'sign me up'. If you then added that he's a catcher I would actually consider that a positive. It sounds like you hear catcher and think of it as a negative.
I assume (though it's just that) that that's because shortstops are generally perceived as having more positional flexibility if they don't stick at the position. If we were talking about a 1B I'd be more inclined to agree, but a catcher who has the potential to stick at catcher with a plus bat, or move to 1B or DH without killing you, is still a pretty attractive prospect to me. I do think I'd rather have Mayer but he's probably the only HS SS I'd rather take than Davis. As you say, time will tell.
Fair enough. Yes I greatly dislike catchers this high. Especially in a shortstop heavy draft. I showed why ( given the propensity of star shortstop players that were high draft picks). Add in fact it seems there could be a few to fit that profile. ( this is where scouts and departments need to make their choices). For my amateur choice I’ll take the shortstop given the past history and what lawyer was supposed to be. ( he’s the one that could be there). For others. They will take the catcher or other pitcher. That’s what makes us fans. Having feelings and thoughts about what to do or what should be done. And let me be clear. I admire many for information they find or share or thoughts or what site brings. But do NOT ask or expect me to conform just because. I’ll always think for myself and be me. Don’t like it... tough ah!t Bit of rant and not directed at you. I do think your thoughts several others have. Or your arguments many have. We shall see who’s right. Hopefully whatever Sox do is right.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 15, 2021 23:19:18 GMT -5
To me there is a big difference between a “catcher who can hit” and “The best college hitter in the draft”
Davis is the latter, and that’s why people should want him regardless of his position. I get it if he’s not the preference though. But it’s not like he’s being considered so high because of his position- I bet he would be up there if he played RF
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Post by fisterroboto on Jun 15, 2021 23:23:20 GMT -5
Pipeline podcast: "We left the top of the board the same except moved Kahlil Watson was 8 to 4, people are flocking into see him and there's talk he could go 1 or 2." "One assistant scouting director that analyzes a lot of data says Leiter has one of the best fastballs he's come across in any draft." "Jobe's slider a bit ahead of Rocker's, he can put it where he wants, he can get misses in the zone, Rocker's is a chase pitch. I've had guys go in an see him and says 80 slider, 70 fastball, 70 changeup, 60 command. He grades out better than Leiter and Rocker, but they've dominated much better competition." So, he's just 2020 deGrom and not the 2021 version? Pass. /s Beyond this being a scout that they heard from, I don't really understand the grades they give guys on the MLB website. There's got to be some draft-related inflation, because according to their lists, the top 8 guys in the draft would slot in somewhere between 6 (Mackenzie Gore) and 15 (Riley Greene) by "overall grade" on their Top 100. It's obviously not a big deal, its just kind of annoying for someone with next to no knowledge of these guys when looking at quick comparisons. Maybe the point is to be even simpler than that and the grades pre-draft are more for comparisons amongst the class than anything else.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 16, 2021 0:16:53 GMT -5
But do you have... I don't know... reasons for saying he has a lower ceiling than others?
To me Joey Bart ceiling is much lower than Bobby witts. Those are the comparisons we are talking about. And I would say a number 3 starter or even hopefully number 2 starter ( in terms of Leiter) Ild say is higher than a Joey Bart. So that’s a much lower ceiling. If we are comparing him to the other Vanderbilt pitcher. Eh. I’ll take him every day all day. But where are you getting these comparisons? Fangraphs has Bart as a 50 prospect and Witt as a 60, so okay, I'll take the 60 too... But why are these the "comparisons we're talking about" for Davis and Mayer/Lawlar or whoever? Who made these comparisons? Based on what? It's been pointed out to you already that fangraphs themselves don't rate Mayer/Lawlar higher than 50.
In other words, once again: what is your reason for saying Davis has a lower ceiling?
(As for your getting upset about people demanding that you "conform": no one is asking you to do that. It is a little confounding, though, when you throw out assertions repeatedly without justifying them. Contrary to popular belief, people aren't entitled to their opinions - opinions need to be justified. At least if anyone else should be expected to care about them.)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 16, 2021 0:28:26 GMT -5
But do you have... I don't know... reasons for saying he has a lower ceiling than others?
To me Joey Bart ceiling is much lower than Bobby witts. Those are the comparisons we are talking about. And I would say a number 3 starter or even hopefully number 2 starter ( in terms of Leiter) Ild say is higher than a Joey Bart. So that’s a much lower ceiling. If we are comparing him to the other Vanderbilt pitcher. Eh. I’ll take him every day all day. But you're not choosing between Joey Bart and Bobby Witt. Just because those guys were players at similar positions taken in the top 5 doesn't make them the same prospects. You're just throwing random names and hypotheticals on things. I can say "Oh, I don't want Marcelo Mayer because Brendan Rodgers was a high school shortstop that hasn't panned out". Does that make any sense? No, but it's the same thing you're doing. Past results are a useful tool to indicate future success but you can't use them as a crutch in the way you are.
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