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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 16, 2021 19:39:05 GMT -5
New Jonathan Mayo mock: 1. Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) 2. Rangers: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS 3. Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City) 5. Orioles: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas) 6. D-backs: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 7. Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Rockies: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) 9. Angels: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas 10. Mets: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-16-2021?t=mlb-draft-coverage
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Post by philarhody on Jun 16, 2021 20:45:09 GMT -5
New Hampshire native, and JUCO Pitcher Adrian Siravo recently worked out at Jet Blue in front of "about 20 scouts" for the Red Sox. He mentioned he was one of 15 players there, and the only New England native. He's UConn commit that was thought to get drafted last yr as a HS senior, and instead of UConn, he went to go to JUCO this year to get his shot at the draft again, and seems intent on playing pro ball. He doesn't appear on BA's current top 500, but was #379 as a HS senior last year. New England Baseball Journal (Paywalled)
Here's his BA report: A two-sport star who is also seen dunking over opponents in high school basketball games, Siravo brings immense upside, especially once he concentrates solely on baseball. At 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, Siravo is tall and athletic with room to grow. He has a raw delivery with plenty of effort and tends to make a huge leap to the plate, but he should be able to iron out some of those kinks at Connecticut. His fastball sits 91-94 mph, but there’s belief he could get it up to 98 mph at the collegiate level. In addition to his fastball, Siravo also throws a splitter, but thus far it's nothing more than a fringy pitch. He performed well at both the 2019 East Coast Pro and the Area Code Games, where his fastball impressed scouts, and he’s a player to watch at Connecticut once he figures it all out High school basketball? Trey Ball 2.0, pass You have to put a wink emoji or something like it so that we know you are kidding :-)
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 16, 2021 21:31:08 GMT -5
Handa is a Yale LHP playing in the NECBL.
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 16, 2021 22:44:02 GMT -5
Living here in the Winston-Salem area, we're excited about a local, tall lefty who our WS Journal say could go in the first round or two. MLB.com has Josh Hartle at #45. www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/Like all high school pitchers, he has some hills to climb. He's 6'5", 218... and hits low to mid 90's. He has a full ride to Wake Forest. Do other posters have intel/insight into his draft situation? Might he be a consideration in the second round? Thanks! Reminder to people not from NC: Khalil Watson is from the town of Wake Forest NC which is about 100 miles away from Wake Forest University, which years ago moved to Winston-Salem, home of the A ball Dash (the only team named after punctuation). I moved to Raleigh almost a decade ago...will never forget driving around the town of Wake Forest wondering where the university was hiding.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 17, 2021 7:01:04 GMT -5
Seems like the kind of guy you can take a late-round flyer on. Absolutely, he's going to pitch a bit for Hyannis in the Cape league prior to the draft as well. Going to be an interesting year for the Cape league in that every roster is carrying a group of draft eligible players. The league starts the 20th, so they'll have about 3 weeks of game play, which could be a big difference for 10-20 round talent pool. I'd wouldn't expect to see many projected top 10 rounders actually play (esp the pitchers), but who really knows, we also have the Draft league this year, but I haven't recognized nearly as many names as I have on the Cape rosters.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 17, 2021 8:38:05 GMT -5
From Jen McCaffrey's June 17th mailbag (The Athletic) Michael G: Is there any scenario in this draft that the Sox could reach a little at No. 4 and sign the player for less than the slot value and then spend that money on a player later in the draft as they did last season with Nick Yorke/Blaze Jordan? The reason I ask is I would love to see Sal Frelick drafted by the Red Sox. He’s from Lexington MA, went to BC and a projected top 10 pick. Is the talent gap between 4-10 that great for this suggestion to be insane? The kid would be an instant fan favorite and could fill the void atop the Red Sox lineup for the next decade plus! — Michael G via The Athletic app Jen McCaffrey: It’s understandable to want the local kid, but I can’t see the Red Sox doing this. I think it’s almost a lock they go with one of those top three guys they’ve been tied to all spring in Davis, Rocker or Leiter, even though Frelick seems to have a lot of potential. I think the reason the Red Sox drafted Yorke last year knowing he’d sign for less money, which would allow them to get Jordan, was a strategy they employed because they were missing that second-round pick following their punishment from MLB for sign stealing. It seems too risky to try that again, especially when there seems to be so much consensus on the top four or five players this year. But, then again, stranger things have happened and maybe the Red Sox want to shock the baseball world again with another unexpected pick. theathletic.com/2656840/2021/06/17/a-jarren-duran-promotion-the-red-sox-draft-and-trade-deadline-thoughts-red-sox-mailbag-part-2?source=user-shared-article
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 17, 2021 20:51:47 GMT -5
I know this isn't adding anything to the discussion, but my goodness this thread we've been talking about every possibility ad nauseum. We've talked about all their positives and it seems at times even more of their negatives. I'm just excited they're going to add what should be a really good and exciting prospect to this farm that to me seems like is all of a sudden budding and pulling itself out of what I'll call the "dark ages". Here's to many more spirited discussions on the best dang red sox forum I know of!
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 17, 2021 21:21:27 GMT -5
Who would you be pissed if the sox took at 4?
I have a short list of name I love: Leiter, Rocker and Meyer
I have a short list of names I'm cool with: Davis, Lawler, Watson, Jobe, House
Anyone else and I'll be furious.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 17, 2021 21:27:38 GMT -5
Who would you be pissed if the sox took at 4? I have a short list of name I love: Leiter, Rocker and Meyer I have a short list of names I'm cool with: Davis, Lawler, Watson, Jobe, House Anyone else and I'll be furious. To piggyback on your rankings. I'd love Mayer (he won't be there) I'd like Leiter,Davis, lawler, I'm coming around on Watson. I'd understand Jobe or house. Everyone else I'd say ya that's a head scratcher. From the reports from the draft "gurus" the sox are not looking to go with a curveball type of underslot pick so I think we can be almost all but assured it's someone in this list but hey we'll see.
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Post by rasimon on Jun 17, 2021 22:11:32 GMT -5
Can someone explain why not having a second round pick last year induced the Sox to draft and sign York cheap to save money for Blaze. I dont really see how the two are related. If it was a good strategy when you dont have a second roumd pick then why would it not be a good strategy when you do have a second round pick?
Is it a diversification argument? That you dont want too many eggs in one basket and without the second round pick a greater percent of budget would naturally be in the first pick? So they acted to spread it our a bit more?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2021 22:20:38 GMT -5
I know this isn't adding anything to the discussion, but my goodness this thread we've been talking about every possibility ad nauseum. We've talked about all their positives and it seems at times even more of their negatives. I'm just excited they're going to add what should be a really good and exciting prospect to this farm that to me seems like is all of a sudden budding and pulling itself out of what I'll call the "dark ages". Here's to many more spirited discussions on the best dang red sox forum I know of! The upshot of poring over these 123 pages of comments for me is that I'm basically equally excited for any of the 6 or 7 guys the Sox might reasonably pick. Unlikely I'll be disappointed on draft day!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2021 22:47:43 GMT -5
Who would you be pissed if the sox took at 4? I have a short list of name I love: Leiter, Rocker and Meyer I have a short list of names I'm cool with: Davis, Lawler, Watson, Jobe, House Anyone else and I'll be furious. It'd take quite a bit for me to be mad before I saw the bonuses. For example, if they took McClain at 4 I'd be a little confused and disappointed if Davis or Leiter were still on the board, but if they took him at 4 and signed him for like $2 million below slot I'd be okay with it, probably.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 17, 2021 23:03:17 GMT -5
Can someone explain why not having a second round pick last year induced the Sox to draft and sign York cheap to save money for Blaze. I dont really see how the two are related. If it was a good strategy when you dont have a second roumd pick then why would it not be a good strategy when you do have a second round pick? I'm with you, I don't think the argument ever made sense. If anything, not having the second round pick makes it harder to find good overslot value. That being said, I don't have a problem with the picks they made.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 18, 2021 6:31:35 GMT -5
Can someone explain why not having a second round pick last year induced the Sox to draft and sign York cheap to save money for Blaze. I dont really see how the two are related. If it was a good strategy when you dont have a second roumd pick then why would it not be a good strategy when you do have a second round pick? I'm with you, I don't think the argument ever made sense. If anything, not having the second round pick makes it harder to find good overslot value. That being said, I don't have a problem with the picks they made. I linked an answer to this question above from Jen McCaffrey's June 17th mailbag (The Athletic). The gist is that the MLB draft is based on draft pool money ($$) more then simply where a team picks numerically. Having NO 2nd round pick in 2020, significantly decreased the Red Sox draft pool allotment (5th lowest amount). Meaning they would have trouble signing top talent (typically those mocked as 1st and 2nd rounders) in a 5 round draft. Not to mention the fact that many players went unseen due to the pandemic shutting down amateur baseball. In 2021, on the other hand, WITH a 2nd round pick, the Red Sox have the 6th highest draft pool allotment ($$). Meaning they can pay significant $$ for the best talent available, without worrying if the player will sign or not. In general, High level amateurs will take the highest money they can get, and if they're selected by a team with MUCH LESS pool money to pay them, they will simply go (back) to college and re-enter the draft again later on. Remember, the MLB draft is totally UNLIKE the NFL, NHL, or NBA drafts in its draft pool allotment system - so any 1:1 comparisons fall short. If the concepts on why the 2020 draft strategy would be different than a potential (more typical) 2021 draft strategy, I'm not sure what to tell you beyond what has been mentioned in this thread many times - and by MLB insiders at Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, ESPN, Baseball America, and here on Soxprospects (i.e. Ian and Chris).
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Post by jimoh on Jun 18, 2021 7:56:45 GMT -5
Who would you be pissed if the sox took at 4? I have a short list of name I love: Leiter, Rocker and Meyer I have a short list of names I'm cool with: Davis, Lawler, Watson, Jobe, House Anyone else and I'll be furious. It'd take quite a bit for me to be mad before I saw the bonuses. For example, if they took McClain at 4 I'd be a little confused and disappointed if Davis or Leiter were still on the board, but if they took him at 4 and signed him for like $2 million below slot I'd be okay with it, probably. If they pick McClain, their second round pick better be a no-doubt hidden gem like Sidd Finch or Gil Gamesh.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 18, 2021 8:37:12 GMT -5
I'm with you, I don't think the argument ever made sense. If anything, not having the second round pick makes it harder to find good overslot value. That being said, I don't have a problem with the picks they made. I linked an answer to this question above from Jen McCaffrey's June 17th mailbag (The Athletic). The gist is that the MLB draft is based on draft pool money ($$) more then simply where a team picks numerically. Having NO 2nd round pick in 2020, significantly decreased the Red Sox draft pool allotment (5th lowest amount). Meaning they would have trouble signing top talent (typically those mocked as 1st and 2nd rounders) in a 5 round draft. Not to mention the fact that many players went unseen due to the pandemic shutting down amateur baseball. In 2021, on the other hand, WITH a 2nd round pick, the Red Sox have the 6th highest draft pool allotment ($$). Meaning they can pay significant $$ for the best talent available, without worrying if the player will sign or not. In general, High level amateurs will take the highest money they can get, and if they're selected by a team with MUCH LESS pool money to pay them, they will simply go (back) to college and re-enter the draft again later on. Remember, the MLB draft is totally UNLIKE the NFL, NHL, or NBA drafts in its draft pool allotment system - so any 1:1 comparisons fall short. If the concepts on why the 2020 draft strategy would be different than a potential (more typical) 2021 draft strategy, I'm not sure what to tell you beyond what has been mentioned in this thread many times - and by MLB insiders at Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, ESPN, Baseball America, and here on Soxprospects (i.e. Ian and Chris). Yeah the argument is as follows: 1) Even if you don't think Yorke was perhaps at the top of their draft board, he was at the very least NEAR the top. 2) If Yorke cost a ton less than other players (signed for $900k under slot), that would allow them to draft someone in the third who would command an over-slot bonus. That's precisely what happened. In other words, they basically made up for not having a second-round pick by signing a guy they probably would've popped in the second in the third because they saved enough money to do so. If they had a second-round pick, they may not have been quite as inclined to do so. Put another way, they had $4,491,480 in slot+5% for their first and third. They spent $4,450,000 on the two picks. They just distributed it evenly rather than give most of it to the first guy. Because they weren't going to be able to draft an actual second-rounder, they distributed the money such that they got a much better pick in their third-rounder without sacrificing very much, per their board, for the first rounder. I do think, though, that people that talk about this as the Red Sox decided to draft two second-rounders rather than a first- and a third-rounder don't have it quite right. I think they thought Yorke was a first-round talent, and they knew he wouldn't fall to their third-round pick. If they had a second-round pick, they might've played chicken with the rest of the league in hoping he'd fall to them there, so that's the other part of it.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 18, 2021 8:44:46 GMT -5
The point is that Yorke + Jordan is either better or worse than Slot 1st + Slot 3rd and having or not having a second round pick doesn't make any difference in this calculation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 18, 2021 9:19:38 GMT -5
The point is that Yorke + Jordan is either better or worse than Slot 1st + Slot 3rd and having or not having a second round pick doesn't make any difference in this calculation. And the reason why having the second matters is that the calculus changes. It could be that slot first plus slot second plus slot third is better than Yorke plus slot second plus Jordan, because it changes the team's appetite to risk someone being there in the 3rd to make it worth it. If you know you can definitely get a first-round talent and a second-round talent, you might be less likely to gamble a bit on a second-round talent being there in the third. Post hoc, I agree. But they didn't necessarily know Jordan would be there when they were drafting Yorke.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 18, 2021 10:21:18 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel's 2021 MLB Mock Draft 2.0
1: Mayer 2: Davis 3: House 4: Leiter - This seems unlikely on its face, but two teams leaning to position players in a tight decision before Boston's turn is actually the most likely outcome at each pick. The Red Sox have been tough to pin down at this pick, being rumored with every top player, which is basically the same as being linked to none of them.
5: Watson 6: Lawlar 7: Kumar
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 18, 2021 10:26:16 GMT -5
I think Kiley nailed the real point here. I don’t think anybody has the foggiest idea about what Bloom’s board looks like.
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Post by manfred on Jun 18, 2021 10:33:42 GMT -5
I think Kiley nailed the real point here. I don’t think anybody has the foggiest idea about what Bloom’s board looks like. It doesn’t seem anyone has any idea of any of the first three boards… so the Sox can’t have laser focus. They have to be considering at least 4 guys by default. This could go in so many directions.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 18, 2021 10:44:31 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jun 18, 2021 11:16:38 GMT -5
A few things:
1. With no sure fire #1 pick and variability in what 1-3 is doing, isn't not knowing what Boston would do the likeliest outcome?
2. We are STARTING to see more consensus. Not on the picks made in the mocks but the information in the texts. The mocks are different bc we are still in the phase where the mockers are guessing and/or using their own draft rankings to slot in a player that fits the narrative of what they are hearing. But a lot of the information is starting to repeat. An example of this is at #10. Nobody is currently mocking Colson Montgomery to the Mets at that pick. But BOTH Kiley in today's update and Callis in his 6/10 mock say he's in play. So if the Mets take Montgomery at #10 it isn't really "out of nowhere". Some of these mocks are behind paywalls but I feel the text behind all 4 of the top picks are more valuable (than the actual person selected) in getting a better sense of, at least, who might be available. Now whether the mockers know that Boston is on Leiter or it just seems implausible that they'd pass on him might not come to light until the week before the draft (if then).
3. Kiley had some interesting comments in the article. If you have a sub, read the text in the Mayer pick at #1. For those that don't, basically public opinion (media) could be shaping team decisions with the limited data teams have. So Lawlar could be dropping bc everyone WAS saying he's highest ranked player which could push his price tag. So if Mayer and Lawlar are close in evaluation, you take Mayer bc Lawlar's tag could be increasing given these mocks/rankings. I wonder how this could be impacting Watson. Seen before as a pick to save you money, does he start to become closer to a "slot" pick vs an "underslot".
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 18, 2021 12:13:29 GMT -5
I think the most interesting part of this draft considering the volatility is going to be the pick at 40. After the first 7 to 8 picks the mocks diverge wildly (more than usual). Who will fall to us at 40 is going to be fun to watch.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 18, 2021 13:01:38 GMT -5
I'm coming around on Watson now have him 3rd behind Mayer and Leiter for my "preference" list. I know its HS stats but the dude has like one strikeout all season, it shows great barrel and hand-eye coordination.
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