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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 13, 2020 14:48:30 GMT -5
That's my worry. I think when all is said and done, Manfred will combine teams' 2019 and 2020 records to get a winning percentage to get a draft order. And the Sox will wind up picking somewhere around the 8th - 10th area. Since the Yankees had the second best overall record in the MLB in 2019, that would entail negatively affecting the Yankees draft position. I don't think Manfred will use a framework that hurts the Yanks.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 13, 2020 14:54:44 GMT -5
It won't affect the MFY much. They're going to have one of the best records this year, just as they did last year. No matter what Manfred does, they'll be drafting toward the end of the first round.
I can definitely see Manfred doing this and it stinks. The rules should have been clear from the beginning, not made up after the season ends.
Getting one of the Vandy P's seemed too good to be true and I guess it was.
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Post by manfred on Aug 13, 2020 15:39:26 GMT -5
It won't affect the MFY much. They're going to have one of the best records this year, just as they did last year. No matter what Manfred does, they'll be drafting toward the end of the first round. I can definitely see Manfred doing this and it stinks. The rules should have been clear from the beginning, not made up after the season ends. Getting one of the Vandy P's seemed too good to be true and I guess it was. What pick would Sox get if they don’t win again this season? It’s not out of the question.
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Post by borisman on Aug 13, 2020 15:56:44 GMT -5
It won't affect the MFY much. They're going to have one of the best records this year, just as they did last year. No matter what Manfred does, they'll be drafting toward the end of the first round. I can definitely see Manfred doing this and it stinks. The rules should have been clear from the beginning, not made up after the season ends. Getting one of the Vandy P's seemed too good to be true and I guess it was. What pick would Sox get if they don’t win again this season? It’s not out of the question. It seems like top 13 is a given unless the slumping bats really heat up. Then we'll win some games 9-7. That said, they're a top 3 pick right now and could stay in top 10 easily. It would be unfair is the Sox land a top 5 pick but then don't because Manfred, and lot of bloodsucking owners, sux.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Aug 13, 2020 16:03:04 GMT -5
I really really dislike manfred he’s a dog turd! No one can convince me that combining 19 and 20 is the fair thing to do.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 13, 2020 16:29:07 GMT -5
Jokes aside, I think Chris is right. The teams that are at the bottom are going to be pissed if there is a lottery and it will only mildly affect the other teams. Plus its just more confusing and complicated to implement, there really isnt a precedent for it. This is not the NBA.
For the combined record thing, there is the same issue with the teams at the bottom being pissed. Those teams are also losing TV money. I have a hard time seeing them changing it if they finish the season.
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Post by jmanny24 on Aug 13, 2020 16:46:13 GMT -5
I think FF is right, if the season is completed things should stay the same. The only teams that would have a gripe (if any) are those teams that had Miami and StL on the schedule. Miami and StL did it to themselves so they get far less sympathy.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 13, 2020 16:52:15 GMT -5
So we can't even revel in them being terrible until we're sure Manfred isn't going to eff up the draft. This year really is the worst.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 13, 2020 17:16:25 GMT -5
Imagine the MLB claiming this season isn't legit enough to determine a draft order, yet it'll be good enough to determine playoff seeding and an eventual World Series champion.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 13, 2020 17:48:12 GMT -5
I just can’t see him changing course. Small market teams already get competitive balance picks it would be wild if Manfred changed things up. I don't see what competitive balance picks have to do with it. It has to do with whether the standings are a fair representation. I think if everyone gets through 60 games then there's a pretty good chance they just roll with those standings, but the issue is if they don't. I think it's only right that this be the determining factor. And all kidding aside, in the case of the RS the standings will be a fair representation. They'd be just as bad in a 162-game season as they are in a 60. But damn, now I'll be stressed out through the end of the season and into the off-season until Manfred announces how he's going to handle this. It would be quite a tease to think my Kumar lust - or even my Jack Leiter lust - is going to be satisfied only to wake up and realize it was just a dream.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 14, 2020 11:54:24 GMT -5
Again, I can't see them messing with draft order if they finish the season and every team at least gets the vast majority of the way through its schedule. The issues are that if: 1) there are teams like the Cardinals potentially that have far fewer games than everyone else, and 2) if they don't finish the season. I can't see the scenario Beasleyrockah suggests coming to pass - in which they have playoffs but don't use this season's standings for seeding. BTW, for shiggles I made two- and three-year standings in a spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bBICN_ibl8U0A4cXjWXY-KN1J1oi8o2BtKyCA9eb1aY/edit?usp=sharingWith two-year standings, they're in the middle of the pack. Three-year standings still have them as a top-five team.
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 14, 2020 14:17:00 GMT -5
From what I gather, while Kumar has been impressive, he, and any college pitcher is still more volatile than position players. Therefore, to me, the difference between #1 or top 5 is less important. Here are the early potential top players in the draft. By round 2, any difference is negligible. www.mlb.com/news/top-2021-mlb-draft-prospects
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Post by mg050369 on Aug 14, 2020 14:37:48 GMT -5
From what I gather, while Kumar has been impressive, he, and any college pitcher is still more volatile than position players. Therefore, to me, the difference between #1 or top 5 is less important. Here are the early potential top players in the draft. By round 2, any difference is negligible. www.mlb.com/news/top-2021-mlb-draft-prospectsIt seems the pecking order for safest to riskiest is: college bats, college arms, HS bats, HS arms. If so, if the Sox have the top pick and I need to make the selection today, I'm going with Kumar. However, they don't have the top pick (yet) and aren't on the clock tonight. Lamenting next summer over who to pick 1st overall is a nice problem to have. They could be zeroed in on one guy (Kumar, Leiter, House, etc) or see no difference between the top 6 names and cut an underslot deal. Whether they pick 1 or 30, although I lean towards pitching, I hope they go BPA with an eye toward upside.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2020 14:53:08 GMT -5
I should think that with all the college seniors with no bargaining chips, looking under slot will be going against the grain (which might not be a bad thing).
Of the three most mentioned toys, my preference would be Leiter, Kumar, House. I am thinking highest floor and fastest to the majors.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2020 17:54:54 GMT -5
If the RedSox do get a top 3 pick and Manfred took it away it would be tough to follow baseball like I do. Losing Betts losing and a young stud pitcher same year I don't think I would buy tickets anymore or go on road trips to watch Pawsox or Portland Sea Dogs. Lets hope Manfred does the right thing and punish Marlins for going to a gentlemen's club or the Cardinals for going to a casino I know it effects teams they play, but my heart is already sinking thinking about it.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 15, 2020 16:44:17 GMT -5
If the RedSox do get a top 3 pick and Manfred took it away it would be tough to follow baseball like I do. Losing Betts losing and a young stud pitcher same year I don't think I would buy tickets anymore or go on road trips to watch Pawsox or Portland Sea Dogs. Lets hope Manfred does the right thing and punish Marlins for going to a gentlemen's club or the Cardinals for going to a casino I know it effects teams they play, but my heart is already sinking thinking about it. If Manfred robs us of the top pick that would normally be our reward for watching this rancid baseball team, he will have earned my undying hatred, and I'm not even joking.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 15, 2020 20:44:10 GMT -5
Peter Gammons is saying it will be a combined formula based on 2019-2020 records 👀
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 21:30:50 GMT -5
Peter Gammons is saying it will be a combined formula based on 2019-2020 records 👀 Yes that makes more since than run differential. Lets hope a team that makes the playoffs awarded the first pick, like giving Portland Blazers number one pick in NBA winning the bubble
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 15, 2020 23:11:43 GMT -5
Speier noted earlier today that if Manfred does decide to use 2019-2020 aggregated records for the draft order, a team like the Tigers (currently 9-9) could potentially make the playoffs at their current pace and still get the first overall pick.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2020 6:07:25 GMT -5
Peter Gammons is saying it will be a combined formula based on 2019-2020 records 👀 This is pretty much MLB admitting that a 60 game season is meaningless. Not a great signal to send.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 16, 2020 7:49:38 GMT -5
Peter Gammons is saying it will be a combined formula based on 2019-2020 records 👀 This post sent shivers of terror through me. Where is Gammons saying this? I did a quick search and I'm not finding a column or tweet. Perhaps it's just his mindless musing and not based on anything real. He also said Mookie would take a big haircut in his next contract due to the pandemic.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2020 8:14:01 GMT -5
Here is Gammon's tweet:
Peter Gammons @pgammo · Aug 15 The 2020 Red Sox pitchers have a 5.60 ERA. The 1932(43-111) Red Sox ERA was 5.02, with a staff that include Hod Lisenbee and Regis Lehen. And next June's draft order will not be in order of the 2020 finish, but a combined formula based on 2019-2020.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2020 8:14:04 GMT -5
Peter Gammons is saying it will be a combined formula based on 2019-2020 records 👀 I suspect that's what happens although if they do complete most of this 60 game season and crown a champion, they shouldn't. Man, I hope this isn't true, because that would make this season for the Red Sox infinitely more meaningless and joyless than it already is. Talk about losing for nothing. On the bright side, there's a definite non-zero chance they're almost as miserable in 2021. So there's that. Yeah, he says sarcastically.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 16, 2020 8:33:30 GMT -5
My question is, what is driving this decision? Also, shouldn’t our owners be fighting like hell to ensure that doesn’t happen. I’d imagine Henry is fairly influential...
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 16, 2020 8:42:54 GMT -5
Still, what does combined 'formula" mean? Is it just combined records for 2 years or is it a true formula that would give more credence to 2020 than merely 60 games?
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