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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 16, 2020 8:44:21 GMT -5
It will be really ugly if they don't use 2020 standings.
Before the season started, I think there was a fair case to use some formula like (2020 wins * 3 + 2019 wins). At this point, it's too late. People will know which teams specifically are advantaged or disadvantaged based on picking this formula or that formula. The teams and fans that end up on the short end of the stick are going to have a lot of ill will over it. They'd be generating this ill will for no real gain - there's no real problem with just using the 2020 standings.
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 16, 2020 8:49:33 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like there is any plan at this point, though Gammons and Speier's speculation about combining 2019 and 2020 in some fashion is probably rooted in some discussion.
Within @peteabe's Sunday Notes: MLB has yet to decide how it will determine the 2021 draft order, i.e., whether it will be based on 2020 record. It's possible, for instance, that it could be determined based on combined 2019-20 record.
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) August 15, 2020
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 16, 2020 9:12:10 GMT -5
I also can’t imagine the AL Central teams would love the idea of the Tigers making out like bandits in this scenario.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2020 9:37:31 GMT -5
At this point I am presuming it is speculation. Troubling is that Gammons has a lot of sources.
Plus he has great taste in music.
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 9:43:24 GMT -5
Not to state the obvious, but though 2020 records will be an incomplete measure, drafting based on the final positions of rosters that no longer exist is crazy, too. I mean, the Sox are an extreme case, but the team that played last year is gone.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 16, 2020 9:46:24 GMT -5
I’m not a fan of the combined standings. It gives way too much power to last year’s standings. Teams like the Marlins, Orioles, and Tigers were so much worse than everyone else last year that it’s nearly impossible for them to rise out of the bottom. Practically handing teams a top 3 pick two years in a row doesn’t seem equitable.
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Post by swingingbunt on Aug 16, 2020 10:02:21 GMT -5
My guess is that they'll seed by using the WP of the last 162 games of teams that don't make the playoffs this year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2020 11:33:54 GMT -5
At the minimum if you are using the last two years, then you have to prorate this season to 162 games, so last year's horrible teams don't get a massive advantage.
Better yet just use this years record. Like how can you declare a world series winner, yet act like the record can't be used for draft seedings?
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2020 11:50:33 GMT -5
MLB will do whatever hurts the Red Sox the most. It's what they always do.
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2020 11:53:48 GMT -5
At the minimum if you are using the last two years, then you have to prorate this season to 162 games, so last year's horrible teams don't get a massive advantage. Better yet just use this years record. Like how can you declare a world series winner, yet act like the record can't be used for draft seedings? Exactly. Isn't the World Series more important than the draft ? Is MLB going to put an asterisk on this years World Champion because it isn't a real season ?
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nomar
Veteran
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Post by nomar on Aug 16, 2020 12:07:24 GMT -5
Another L for the front office
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 12:12:51 GMT -5
It is especially galling that they might do this late. If draft order was going to be rearranged, they should have said it before they played. It might have changed how teams approached the season.
I honestly wonder if the Sox might have tried a bit harder to be, say, last in to the playoffs if sucking had no reward. Maybe sign another mediocre starter instead of running out guys like Weber?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 16, 2020 12:15:04 GMT -5
At this point I am presuming it is speculation. Troubling is that Gammons has a lot of sources. Plus he has great taste in music. His record of predicting picks back when he was on draft day was very good. We just don't see the "hits" like he used to, just guesses. Anybody else remember him saying several picks beforehand that Boston was after Vitek back in 2010?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Aug 16, 2020 12:30:19 GMT -5
I think it was pretty noticeable that Gammons was shut out of the Dombrowski loop but he's been on top of Red Sox stuff going back to the Betts rumors and has had some scoops on all the new rules this summer. Who knows if this is right, but Callis threw out of the same hypothetical the day before, I doubt he's pulling that out of his ass.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 16, 2020 13:02:27 GMT -5
I don't like the 2019-2020 combined option, it doesn't solve the issue. If the issue is that it over-rewards the 2020 performance given the shortened season, the combined option ends up with the same issue as it now over-rewards the 2019 performance.
Not sure there's a great solution though. Even though it was determined via a lottery, the NHL giving the first overall pick to the Rangers (who were in the play-in games) doesn't sit well with me either.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 16, 2020 13:19:29 GMT -5
Its interesting that MLB is potentially going to bone the red sox on this. I'm guessing the crown jewel franchise thing was overstated
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 13:21:44 GMT -5
I don't like the 2019-2020 combined option, it doesn't solve the issue. If the issue is that it over-rewards the 2020 performance given the shortened season, the combined option ends up with the same issue as it now over-rewards the 2019 performance. Not sure there's a great solution though. Even though it was determined via a lottery, the NHL giving the first overall pick to the Rangers (who were in the play-in games) doesn't sit well with me either. I could live — if we must — with a lottery for every last place team the last two years. But the thing that chafes me (beyond not deciding before the season) is that the 2019 losers already got rewarded. So why should sucking in one season get you 2 years worth of compensation?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2020 13:52:21 GMT -5
A lottery for every team that misses the playoffs is better than two year averages. Yet it still sucks. Hopefully this is all just stuff if they don't get to the playoffs. If they do, It should be based on 2020 records.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 16, 2020 14:22:02 GMT -5
I don't like the 2019-2020 combined option, it doesn't solve the issue. If the issue is that it over-rewards the 2020 performance given the shortened season, the combined option ends up with the same issue as it now over-rewards the 2019 performance. Not sure there's a great solution though. Even though it was determined via a lottery, the NHL giving the first overall pick to the Rangers (who were in the play-in games) doesn't sit well with me either. I could live — if we must — with a lottery for every last place team the last two years. But the thing that chafes me (beyond not deciding before the season) is that the 2019 losers already got rewarded. So why should sucking in one season get you 2 years worth of compensation? You should ask your namesake.
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 14:35:17 GMT -5
I could live — if we must — with a lottery for every last place team the last two years. But the thing that chafes me (beyond not deciding before the season) is that the 2019 losers already got rewarded. So why should sucking in one season get you 2 years worth of compensation? You should ask your namesake. Not who it comes from. But embarrassing coincidence.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 16, 2020 14:36:13 GMT -5
You should ask your namesake. Not who it comes from. But embarrassing coincidence. Yeah I know I’m just messing with you : )
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 16, 2020 21:45:52 GMT -5
The Red Sox are on pace for 16 wins this year. Combine that with their 84 from last year and that’s 100 wins. The Tigers had 47 wins last year. They’d need to go 54-6 this year to move past the Red Sox in the 2 year standings. That shows how much the 2 year standings favors last year.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 16, 2020 22:00:54 GMT -5
A bunch of posts not related to the 2021 MLB Draft (nor the Red Sox) have been moved to the Off Topic Forum. Let's keep on topic here. Thanks.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 17, 2020 5:04:11 GMT -5
I have no idea who the smartest draft twitter peeps are but here's an opinion.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2020 6:35:20 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, I'd bet a good amount of money that more thought has been given here than in the commissioner's office to next year's draft order at this point.
I love Peter Gammons, as we all do, but communicating on Twitter isn't his strong suit. If Passan, Olney, Rosenthal, Heyman, etc. aren't reporting that such a decision has been made, I'm skeptical that it's been decided.
Manfred was given this power in the April agreement when they had no idea what the season would look like. As I've said, I doubt they'll mess with the draft order unless there's some significant extenuating circumstance (beyond those under which the season is being played).
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