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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by manfred on Mar 8, 2021 10:29:56 GMT -5
I don’t know man.... you can say “don’t draft pitchers at #4” all you want, but if (and I can’t imagine it’ll happen) Leiter was around, I jump on him. Where do you get an upside like that if you don’t risk it all?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 8, 2021 10:46:39 GMT -5
He only used 95-05 as a time period and then threw an outlier of a random 10 war to judge whether the pick was worth it or not. The other assessment views a far bigger time frame and judges on whether they make the league or not. In the first round more college arms make it to the bigs then any other group. So to label them a higher risk is inaccurate. If you go back from 2005-2015 only picks 1-4 you find the most reliable picks are college arms and hs bats. The 95-05 era used very little analytics to judge draftees so using that as a reference point its apples to oranges to the game today. Well let's see...
HSA=High school pitcher HSPP=High school position player CA=College pitcher CPP=College position player
| Pick | Type | bWAR | Pick | Type | bWAR | Pick | Type | bWAR | Pick | Type | bWAR | 2005 | 1 | CPP | 33.9 | 2 | CPP | 35.1 | 3 | CPP | -1.2 | 4 | CPP | 38.5+ | 2006 | 1 | CA | 3.7 | 2 | CA | -1.5 | 3 | CPP | 56.7+ | 4 | CA | 0.4 | 2007 | 1 | CA | 39.4+ | 2 | HSPP | 15.6 | 3 | HSPP | -1.3 | 4 | CA | 0.2 | 2008 | 1 | HSPP | 3.5+ | 2 | CPP | 5.1 | 3 | HSPP | 17.8 | 4 | CA | 2.1 | 2009 | 1 | CA | 33.3+ | 2 | CPP | 7.7 | 3 | HSPP | -- | 4 | CPP | 0.1 | 2010 | 1 | CPP* | 33.7+ | 2 | HSPP | 8.2+ | 3 | HSPP | 39.8+ | 4 | CPP | 1.2 | 2011 | 1 | CA | 26.0+ | 2 | CA | 0.2 | 3 | CPP | 17.5+ | 4 | HSA | 8.8+ | 2012 | 1 | HSPP | 26.3+ | 2 | HSPP | 11.9+ | 3 | CPP | 6.8+ | 4 | CA | 11.2+ | 2013 | 1 | CA | -- | 2 | CPP | 24.3+ | 3 | CA | 9.9+ | 4 | HSA | 0.4+ | 2014 | 1 | HSA | -- | 2 | HSA | -- | 3 | CA | 6.5+ | 4 | CPP | 5.4+ | 2015 | 1 | CPP | 7.5+ | 2 | CPP | 23.4+ | 3 | HSPP | -1.0+ | 4 | CA | 0.2+ |
By a 10+ WAR (or reasonable expectation of 10+ WAR) = success standard, I'd say it's gone like this:
High school pitchers: 0 for 2 (1 TBD)
High school position players: 6 for 9 (1 TBD) College pitchers: 6 for 13 (1 TBD) College position players: 10 for 16
Still looks better for college position players to me! In fact high school position players have also done better than college pitchers. Never draft pitchers!
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 8, 2021 10:48:11 GMT -5
Prospects Live will have their new board out tomorrow. I love what they do. If I had to guess top five I would probably say 1: Leiter, 2: Lawlar, 3:Mayer, 4:Rocker, 5: Madden. Fabians slow first weekend dings him slightly and Adrian Del Castillo’s power has yet to really emerge. To make it crazy I say House stays as their number 6, and Henry Davis takes the seventh spot. These guys really keep an eye on both the college kids and the HS kids. www.prospectslive.com/prospect-lists/Sampsonite! I was way off. www.prospectslive.com/lists/2021/3/7/2021-mlb-draft-top-400-prospects
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 8, 2021 11:18:17 GMT -5
Is Henry Davis too big a reach at #4, seems like the defensive profile makes him close to a lock to be a MLB catcher and the bat seems like it could be pretty good.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 8, 2021 11:28:32 GMT -5
Is Henry Davis too big a reach at #4, seems like the defensive profile makes him close to a lock to be a MLB catcher and the bat seems like it could be pretty good. If they can get a guy like him underslot and save some money to use in the following rounds I could see it happening. Probably wouldn't be my personal preference but he definitely seems like a good bet to at least be a major league caliber player at the catcher position with good upside with the bat for a catcher.
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Post by geostorm on Mar 8, 2021 11:32:49 GMT -5
Is Henry Davis too big a reach at #4, seems like the defensive profile makes him close to a lock to be a MLB catcher and the bat seems like it could be pretty good. If they can get a guy like him underslot and save some money to use in the following rounds I could see it happening. Probably wouldn't be my personal preference but he definitely seems like a good bet to at least be a major league caliber player at the catcher position with good upside with the bat for a catcher. Like the narrative; not as familiar w the player "NC State catcher Luca Tresh has seen a mammoth rise over the past two months after cementing himself as the starting catcher for the Wolfpack. Tresh replaces Patrick Bailey, but might be every bit the bat of his predecessor. Some scouts have thrown 60 grades on the power tool. Tresh is pushing Memphis thumper Hunter Goodman as the second-best college catcher in the class, though for our money, Louisville backstop Henry Davis is in a league of his own thanks to top-of-the-scale athleticism behind the plate and 98th percentile exit velos, as well as outlandishly good walk and strikeout rates. Adrian Del Castillo has shown improvement behind the plate, but questions still remain on his final defensive home."
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 8, 2021 11:33:45 GMT -5
Nothing is a reach right now by draft time he could be considered the #1 pick.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 8, 2021 11:54:33 GMT -5
Btw, listening to BA's news podcast, apparently it's "ku-MAR", not "KOO-mar"
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 8, 2021 13:44:32 GMT -5
I really hate the idea of taking a catcher at 4. Don't have the data, but my instinct is that they flame out faster or don't stick at catcher. For catchers I like the Duquettian idea of letting someone else develop them or waiting for them to burn out. I do like what Bloom has done in bringing in some AA/AAA types that might stick.
I feel better with a high-ceiling pitcher with 3+ pitches now, SS/3B, or great-fielding OF bat.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 8, 2021 14:13:47 GMT -5
I really hate the idea of taking a catcher at 4. Don't have the data, but my instinct is that they flame out faster or don't stick at catcher. For catchers I like the Duquettian idea of letting someone else develop them or waiting for them to burn out. I do like what Bloom has done in bringing in some AA/AAA types that might stick. I feel better with a high-ceiling pitcher with 3+ pitches now, SS/3B, or great-fielding OF bat. I think a lot of people have the anti-catcher bias (myself included to a degree). That said, Henry's strengths give him a pretty high floor/ceiling combo in my opinion and I'm trying not to put him the in same box that I've put recent college catchers in (think Patrick Bailey last year). Across 97 PA's this year and the abbreviated 2020 season, Davis has 12 XBHs (6 HRs, 6 2Bs) and 15 BBs to only 6 Ks. It translates to just shy of a .400/.500/.700 line. If I told you that guy was a 1B/DH type, you'd still probably interested enough to follow him. I think because that guy is a very athletic C with a 70 arm and is lauded for strong leadership skills makes him super interesting at #4. I will note his receiving still needs work but he's fairly widely projected to stay at the position as a professional. I'm a sucker for any guy (regardless of position) that pairs strong contact skills/approach with quality contact (he has ~98th percentile exit velos) and if he that keeps up, I'm kind of all in for a guy who plays a position where the offensive bar is already lower.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 8, 2021 14:20:47 GMT -5
I really hate the idea of taking a catcher at 4. Don't have the data, but my instinct is that they flame out faster or don't stick at catcher. For catchers I like the Duquettian idea of letting someone else develop them or waiting for them to burn out. I do like what Bloom has done in bringing in some AA/AAA types that might stick. I feel better with a high-ceiling pitcher with 3+ pitches now, SS/3B, or great-fielding OF bat. The data: www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=C&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0 Can't say looking at this that the flame-out rate seems higher to me. I don't like lumping in, though, the idea that guys at a certain position don't stick there. That happens all around the diamond. The key is how important it is that the player sticks relative to the chances they will. Like, Bryce Harper not sticking at catcher was irrelevant. Sticking has turned out to be very important for Wieters. And so on. I'd be interested to see how much more often players move off catcher as compared to, say, shortstop.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 8, 2021 14:25:37 GMT -5
For what it's worth, the last 2 catchers drafted #1 overall were Adley Rutschmann and Joe Mauer.
Recent ones taken in the top five:
2: Joey Bart (2018), Ben Davis (1995) 3: Mike Zunino (2012), Jeff Clement (2005), Eric Munson (1999) 4: Kyle Schwarber (2014), Tony Sanchez (2009) 5: Buster Posey (2008), Matt Wieters (2007)
A couple of jackpots there in Mauer and Posey, but they do seem to do a little worse than other position players, though still at least as good as pitchers. SSS, though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 8, 2021 14:36:40 GMT -5
For what it's worth, the last 2 catchers drafted #1 overall were Adley Rutschmann and Joe Mauer. Recent ones taken in the top five: 2: Joey Bart (2018), Ben Davis (1995) 3: Mike Zunino (2012), Jeff Clement (2005), Eric Munson (1999) 4: Kyle Schwarber (2014), Tony Sanchez (2009) 5: Buster Posey (2008), Matt Wieters (2007) A couple of jackpots there in Mauer and Posey, but they do seem to do a little worse than other position players, though still at least as good as pitchers. SSS, though. Really? I see 9 catchers taken in the 2000s and, so far, just 2 misses, a "meh" in Schwarber, MLB regulars in Wieters and Zunino, the two studs, a good prospect and an uber prospect (and Clement at least had prospect value until he got to MLB).
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Post by tyler3 on Mar 8, 2021 14:52:57 GMT -5
I think Davis is going to be a steady climb. He’s projected to be an asset behind the plate, he has a superb eye, and when he makes contact he just annihilates the ball. The only reach gripe I’ve heard about him is his launch angle isn’t optimized, as in he hammers a lot of line drives and his homers are not lofty but low flying rockets. But I mean for a catcher, I can deal with that. To me right now he seems similar to Adrian Del Castillo except for Davis will most likely stick behind the plate, has a better arm, is more athletic (already has a handful of steals), and right now hits for more power. The guys an animal.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 8, 2021 14:53:37 GMT -5
Thanks. I'd looked at BR but it wasn't easy to see converts (hence Harper not being in your link).
Mike Zunino isn't a good outcome for a top 5 pick to me. Wieters had 3 good seasons and lived off of those since. Going deeper into the draft, someone like Grandal at 12 should seem like a success with 18 career bWAR and counting, but he didn't settle in to being a 2.5 WAR player until age 27. Between extended development time, wear and tear risk, and potential to lose positional premium (you don't usually see catchers move to CF, Harper non-withstanding), it doesn't seem ideal to me.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 8, 2021 14:53:57 GMT -5
They’re going to have to put in major effort to disappoint me. So much talent at the top of the class it seems
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Post by manfred on Mar 8, 2021 14:57:34 GMT -5
For what it's worth, the last 2 catchers drafted #1 overall were Adley Rutschmann and Joe Mauer. Recent ones taken in the top five: 2: Joey Bart (2018), Ben Davis (1995) 3: Mike Zunino (2012), Jeff Clement (2005), Eric Munson (1999) 4: Kyle Schwarber (2014), Tony Sanchez (2009) 5: Buster Posey (2008), Matt Wieters (2007) A couple of jackpots there in Mauer and Posey, but they do seem to do a little worse than other position players, though still at least as good as pitchers. SSS, though. Really? I see 9 catchers taken in the 2000s and, so far, just 2 misses, a "meh" in Schwarber, MLB regulars in Wieters and Zunino, the two studs, a good prospect and an uber prospect (and Clement at least had prospect value until he got to MLB). I looked at catchers from 1995-2010, and I think there were 14 taken in the top-20. If we go by the 10+ WAR standard, I count 6. I didn’t count Harper in either category (so you could go 7 of 15). One of the hits, though, was Neil Walker, who obviously moved off catcher. But that leaves Mauer, Posey, Weiters, Jason Castro and Grandal. Now, it is fair to say that only Mauer and Posey were truly elite (if we go on the 20+ WAR criterion, they are it, though Walker is out by a rounding error and Grandal was 18 bWAR). Anyway, I went in expecting a high bust rate, but, well, no, near 50% is tough to complain about. OTOH, it is at least somewhat interesting to see how *rare* catchers are as top-20 picks (4 seasons had more than one, so only 9 years in that span had *any* catcher selected top-20). Buyer beware: I did this a bit quickly, so I might have missed something.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 8, 2021 15:05:24 GMT -5
Shortstops Top 5 since 1990
Year Tm Name WAR G Drafted Out of 1990 1 Braves Chipper Jones 85.3 2499 The Bolles School 1993 1 Mariners Alex Rodriguez 117.5 2784 Westminster Christian 2004 1 Padres Matt Bush 2.6 8 Mission Bay HS 2005 1 Diamondbacks Justin Upton 33.9 1739 Great Bridge HS 2008 1 Rays Tim Beckham 3.5 472 Griffin HS 2012 1 Astros Carlos Correa 26.3 604 Puerto Rico Baseball Academy 2015 1 Diamondbacks Dansby Swanson 7.5 505 Vanderbilt University 2017 1 Twins Royce Lewis JSerra Catholic HS 2002 2 Devil Rays Melvin Upton Jr. 16.8 1469 Greenbrier Christian Academy 2007 2 Royals Mike Moustakas 15.6 1175 Chatsworth HS 2015 2 Astros Alex Bregman 23.4 559 Louisiana State University 2019 2 Royals Bobby Witt Colleyville Heritage HS 2000 3 Cubs Luis Montanez -1.3 129 Coral Park HS 2010 3 Orioles Manny Machado 39.8 1142 Brito Miami Private School 2015 3 Rockies Brendan Rodgers -1.0 32 Lake Mary HS 1999 4 Diamondbacks Corey Myers Desert Vista HS 2010 4 Royals Christian Colon 1.2 161 California State University, Fullerto 2018 4 White Sox Nick Madrigal 0.5 29 Oregon State University 1994 5 Marlins Josh Booty 0.0 13 Evangel Christian Academy (Shreveport, LA) 2014 5 Twins Nick Gordon Olympia HS (Orlando, FL) 2020 5 Blue Jays Austin Martin Vanderbilt University (Nashvill
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Post by agastonguay13 on Mar 8, 2021 15:10:32 GMT -5
I don’t know man.... you can say “don’t draft pitchers at #4” all you want, but if (and I can’t imagine it’ll happen) Leiter was around, I jump on him. Where do you get an upside like that if you don’t risk it all? I concur. I will always take a position player over a pitcher if you're the same level of hype about them both, but you also have to be ready to pounce when there's a pitcher who looks to have it, whatever "it" is... At this point, Leiter is the only guy who gives me "it" vibes. Also, I feel like the second round pick this year almost has to be a pitcher. It seems a more sound strategy to me. BPA at #4 (probably a position player, and I can't imagine #4 overall will expect or get much at all if anything over slot), take a projectable high school pitcher who falls in round 2. Pay over slot if needed, I'm willing to punt a 6th and an 8th rounder on senior signs to create that cash. This way, you're still (hopefully) getting a stud at #4 and playing a Safer lottery in round 2.
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Post by rasimon on Mar 8, 2021 15:30:55 GMT -5
He only used 95-05 as a time period and then threw an outlier of a random 10 war to judge whether the pick was worth it or not. The other assessment views a far bigger time frame and judges on whether they make the league or not. In the first round more college arms make it to the bigs then any other group. So to label them a higher risk is inaccurate. If you go back from 2005-2015 only picks 1-4 you find the most reliable picks are college arms and hs bats. The 95-05 era used very little analytics to judge draftees so using that as a reference point its apples to oranges to the game today. I used bWAR of 10 and 20 to focus on quality players. I can't imagine a team drafting in the first round is hoping to get a player who only accumulates a handful of major league ABs in his career. That does not seem like a good measure of drafting success. Maybe 10 was too high for the low cutoff. I could try 5 as a low cutoff. 20 looks about right for stars - maybe even a bit higher. I thought about just adding up bWAR but I think the sample is too small and gets skewed by whether the occasional Mike Trout is in the sample or not. I used the 95-05 period to allow for enough time to fairly evaluate each draftee's career. While we don't have the final tally on every draftee yet, by now we should know if each will break 10 or 20 bWAR. Including draftees from 2015 would seem to bias in favor of college draftees as some HSers may just now be making the majors. To get a view of what bWAR of 10 and 20 look like, below are the major players from the 2018 Sox and their current career bWAR: Leone 2.4 Moreland 10.3 Nunez -0.4 Bogaerts 23.0 Devers 6.3 Benintendi 9.8 Bradley 18.0 Betts 45.4 JDM 23.6 Pearce 10.0 Holt 7.9 Vasquez 3.8 Porcello 19.9 Sale 45.3 Price 39.4 ERod 13.4 Eovaldi 10.1 Kelly 5.8 Barnes 3.4 Kimbrel 19.4
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Post by wOBA Fett on Mar 8, 2021 20:54:16 GMT -5
I don’t know man.... you can say “don’t draft pitchers at #4” all you want, but if (and I can’t imagine it’ll happen) Leiter was around, I jump on him. Where do you get an upside like that if you don’t risk it all? It is also easier/cheaper to get sign above average hitters as free agents than it is to sign above average pitchers
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 8, 2021 21:05:43 GMT -5
What like so far is that there seems to be more than 5 players worthy of being top 5 picks which obviously bodes well for the Red Sox. That’s my take away so far.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 8, 2021 21:17:13 GMT -5
Is Henry Davis too big a reach at #4, seems like the defensive profile makes him close to a lock to be a MLB catcher and the bat seems like it could be pretty good. Track record alone with Boston on high, wasted draft picks on catchers since '08 says don't do it, including stop wasting top 5 picks again at all on them as abysmal as each and every one has been since picking Vazquez/Lavarnway and Fed-x all top 10 a dozen years ago. I'm all for drafting a *power* pitcher up top and as many as they can high every year.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 8, 2021 23:08:25 GMT -5
Is Henry Davis too big a reach at #4, seems like the defensive profile makes him close to a lock to be a MLB catcher and the bat seems like it could be pretty good. Track record alone with Boston on high, wasted draft picks on catchers since '08 says don't do it, including stop wasting top 5 picks again at all on them as abysmal as each and every one has been since picking Vazquez/Lavarnway and Fed-x all top 10 a dozen years ago. I'm all for drafting a *power* pitcher up top and as many as they can high every year. I dont want to be combative but are you saying the Sox just shouldn't pick any catchers in rounds 1-5?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 9, 2021 0:03:50 GMT -5
I’d have zero issues with Davis or Madden at 4
They’ll have to do something pretty wild to disappoint me.
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