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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by jayhawk on Aug 17, 2020 10:12:49 GMT -5
Understanding it's always difficult to tell these things with certainty (especially in baseball) is there a general consensus on the relative strength of this year's draft?
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Post by tizzle on Aug 17, 2020 13:40:24 GMT -5
At the minimum if you are using the last two years, then you have to prorate this season to 162 games, so last year's horrible teams don't get a massive advantage. Better yet just use this years record. Like how can you declare a world series winner, yet act like the record can't be used for draft seedings? I was reading this thread and was going to make two points, but you pretty much just nailed both of them. Firstly, if you're going to crown a champ this year, then you're treating it as a real season. You can't give some team a WS trophy and then change the draft because it's a legit year if you win, but if you lose, tough titties, the season doesn't count. At that point, no one should consider the title a real one. Secondly, how do you have a 2021 draft that gives (nearly) three times the weight to 2019 season as the 2020 one? We could literally end up with a scenario where two teams are playing in the Series but get top 5 draft positions because they were bad two full seasons earlier. Ludicrous. Hopefully there is nothing to this.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 17, 2020 15:12:17 GMT -5
Thats a good point if you award a title this year based on this years results then how can you do a different formula for a draft. No matter how we joke this franchise has pride and its never a goal to tank and shoot for the top pick. This is not football where you have a legitmate game changer at the top pick. You get top talent and top money.
I also feel i want this to be a one year issue. Not the norm.
One more thing I almost feel off my chair when I heard Tony "what happened to you" Mazz actually say he would rather a compettitive team every year instead of what the Red Sox did win 4 titles but we had a couple of bad seasons in between. Let that sink in.
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Post by kman22 on Aug 18, 2020 10:27:45 GMT -5
Thats a good point if you award a title this year based on this years results then how can you do a different formula for a draft. No matter how we joke this franchise has pride and its never a goal to tank and shoot for the top pick. This is not football where you have a legitmate game changer at the top pick. You get top talent and top money. I also feel i want this to be a one year issue. Not the norm. One more thing I almost feel off my chair when I heard Tony "what happened to you" Mazz actually say he would rather a compettitive team every year instead of what the Red Sox did win 4 titles but we had a couple of bad seasons in between. Let that sink in. Yeah, that Mazz take is ridiculous on a number of levels. With the most titles since the turn of the century, I'd trade nothing. The gaps between titles have given us the fun of following the farm system, which, at times, was the best in the sport.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2020 11:34:42 GMT -5
Thats a good point if you award a title this year based on this years results then how can you do a different formula for a draft. No matter how we joke this franchise has pride and its never a goal to tank and shoot for the top pick. This is not football where you have a legitmate game changer at the top pick. You get top talent and top money. I also feel i want this to be a one year issue. Not the norm. One more thing I almost feel off my chair when I heard Tony "what happened to you" Mazz actually say he would rather a compettitive team every year instead of what the Red Sox did win 4 titles but we had a couple of bad seasons in between. Let that sink in. Yeah, that Mazz take is ridiculous on a number of levels. With the most titles since the turn of the century, I'd trade nothing. The gaps between titles have given us the fun of following the farm system, which, at times, was the best in the sport. He hates it because he liked it better when they didn't win or would almost win. Makes for better ratings and books that are easier to sell. When you win a bunch the novelty is gone to the fans that aren't absolute diehards like us. Everybody loved 2004. The following ones not as much. NESN couldn't even pretend to be interested enough to come up with a commemorative video after 2018. There are a gazillion books about 2004 and the longing beforehand but so few books on 2007, 2013, and 2018. I mean, based on what was going on in 2013 with the Marathon bombing and the baseball disaster that was Sept 2011 and 2012, you'd think there was a comprehensive book on the season really detailing everything, but there's not. Same with 2007 and 2018. Mazz isn't the diehard fan we are. He only cares about ratings and the commercial opportunities to line his own pockets.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 18, 2020 12:53:06 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 18, 2020 13:15:54 GMT -5
Yes. I have that book and enjoyed it. It devotes about a chapter to 2013. And as far as 2018 it does a great job of the FO piece of things and the drafting of the young players and their connection. But I'm talking something even beyond that. They won 108 regular season games that year. That's ridiculous. That gets glossed over a lot. I want something that's going to bring back the memories of those games and a lot of those wins were amazing, comebacks you wouldn't have counted on. My memory has faded a bit on the details of those games. There's a ton of info on the 1978 Boston Massacre in books, but how about the agonizing sweep the Sox put on the Yankees in Aug 2018, a battle of two teams playing .650 ball. I want the player stories, the season details, the post-season details, everything. Want to feel like I'm reliving the season. That's what's missing for me. Same with 2013, the circumstances of which made for an inspirational season like no other in Red Sox history. And even 2007 is totally forgotten as it was just the 2nd title and nothing remarkable other than totally mashing the hell out of their opponents those last 7 games occurred. It's probably forgotten that the Sox nearly blew a 14 game lead over the Yankees that year. I'm looking for complete focus on a particular season. The Speier book does a great job drawing the line between the 2011 draft and the 2018 fruitions of that draft. But I still think there's room for more on the bookshelf that can and should be covered to bring back the memories for a detail hound like myself. I mean, I know they won 119 games. Please give me details to remember those games, or at least the most amazing ones.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 18, 2020 22:11:38 GMT -5
If there is a strike and lockout, is there a draft ? Asking for a friend.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 19, 2020 8:33:14 GMT -5
So after this 9 game losing streak where the Red Sox have put themselves down to the league’s 2nd worst record, their 2 year standings would have moved them from the 17th pick in the draft all the way to...the 15th. 2 year standings puts them 32 games back from the 1st overall pick, 15.5 games back from a top 5 pick, and 5.5 games back from a top 10 pick. Meanwhile, the Tigers who would be gifted the 1st overall pick again (down from #8) and they’d still have a 8.5 game lead on the #2 pick (the Orioles, who would jump from the 17th pick to #2).
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Post by kman22 on Aug 19, 2020 9:39:05 GMT -5
So after this 9 game losing streak where the Red Sox have put themselves down to the league’s 2nd worst record, their 2 year standings would have moved them from the 17th pick in the draft all the way to...the 15th. 2 year standings puts them 32 games back from the 1st overall pick, 15.5 games back from a top 5 pick, and 5.5 games back from a top 10 pick. Meanwhile, the Tigers who would be gifted the 1st overall pick again (down from #8) and they’d still have a 8.5 game lead on the #2 pick (the Orioles, who would jump from the 17th pick to #2). Are you talking about combining records? I had assumed it would be win percentage, with this season as the tiebreaker, if they went the cumulative route.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2020 10:26:56 GMT -5
So after this 9 game losing streak where the Red Sox have put themselves down to the league’s 2nd worst record, their 2 year standings would have moved them from the 17th pick in the draft all the way to...the 15th. 2 year standings puts them 32 games back from the 1st overall pick, 15.5 games back from a top 5 pick, and 5.5 games back from a top 10 pick. Meanwhile, the Tigers who would be gifted the 1st overall pick again (down from #8) and they’d still have a 8.5 game lead on the #2 pick (the Orioles, who would jump from the 17th pick to #2). Are you talking about combining records? I had assumed it would be win percentage, with this season as the tiebreaker, if they went the cumulative route. What's the difference?
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Post by texs31 on Aug 19, 2020 10:43:20 GMT -5
If it's the 2 seasons combined, they are at 90-96 which would give them the 14th pick. If it's the last 162 games, I haven't done that (and likely won't)
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 19, 2020 10:49:25 GMT -5
If it's the 2 seasons combined, they are at 90-96 which would give them the 14th pick. If it's the last 162 games, I haven't done that (and likely won't) I doubt they’d use the last 162 games. The only two options I’ve heard thrown around are just 2020 standings or a complete combination of 2019 and 2020. 90-96 gives them the 15th though. Rangers are 88-96 combined for the 14th pick.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 19, 2020 10:51:28 GMT -5
Are you talking about combining records? I had assumed it would be win percentage, with this season as the tiebreaker, if they went the cumulative route. What's the difference? The difference would be that 2020 would have the same weight as 2019. If you just combined wins and loses then 2019 has 2.7 times the weight.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 19, 2020 11:07:54 GMT -5
The difference would be that 2020 would have the same weight as 2019. If you just combined wins and loses then 2019 has 2.7 times the weight. This. Not to mention teams may play a varying number of total games this year further complicating total record between the two years. If they insisted on some 2019-2020 hybrid (which I hope they don't, especially if the season plays out in full), I would hope they would take the mean winning percentage between the two years.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 19, 2020 11:44:43 GMT -5
The difference would be that 2020 would have the same weight as 2019. If you just combined wins and loses then 2019 has 2.7 times the weight. This. Not to mention teams may play a varying number of total games this year further complicating total record between the two years. If they insisted on some 2019-2020 hybrid (which I hope they don't, especially if the season plays out in full), I would hope they would take the mean winning percentage between the two years. Using the combined records of two seasons really only makes sense if the season was stopped after five or ten games. Assuming you get the planned abbreviated season, the draft should be based only on the record in that abbreviated season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2020 14:33:09 GMT -5
The difference would be that 2020 would have the same weight as 2019. If you just combined wins and loses then 2019 has 2.7 times the weight. Oh, so by "win percentage" you meant weighting 2020's record as though it were 162 games by taking the mean of the two winning percentages? In other words: 2019: 84-78 = .519 2020: say they play out to their current winning percentage of .250 The precise way to do it would be: ((84/162)+(15/60))/2 = .384 I read "win percentage" as calculating the team's win percentage over the two seasons, which would be the exact same thing as combining wins and losses, so that's why I misunderstood. But yeah, I agree with the premise that they should make sure 2019 doesn't have more weight than 2020, 100%.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 19, 2020 16:37:19 GMT -5
The difference would be that 2020 would have the same weight as 2019. If you just combined wins and loses then 2019 has 2.7 times the weight. Oh, so by "win percentage" you meant weighting 2020's record as though it were 162 games by taking the mean of the two winning percentages? In other words: 2019: 84-78 = .519 2020: say they play out to their current winning percentage of .250 The precise way to do it would be: ((84/162)+(15/60))/2 = .384 I read "win percentage" as calculating the team's win percentage over the two seasons, which would be the exact same thing as combining wins and losses, so that's why I misunderstood. But yeah, I agree with the premise that they should make sure 2019 doesn't have more weight than 2020, 100%. Actually, if they do mess with it, they should make sure that 2020 has more weight than 2019, 2 to 1 seems somewhat reasonable. Any change though cheapens the 2020 season, assuming it completes.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 19, 2020 17:15:23 GMT -5
I just can't figure out what problem these complex formulas are trying to solve. 2020 has a dumb dinky schedule, and maybe you could argue the outcomes will be a little more arbitrary than usual. But the teams who get rewarded by that arbitrariness by making the playoffs will have a worse draft position, and the teams who get hurt by that arbitrariness by missing the playoffs will have a better draft position - just like every season. What am I missing?
Like bluechip says, if the playoffs got cancelled maybe it would make sense. Otherwise, I don't get it.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Aug 19, 2020 17:18:40 GMT -5
The MLB won't go based off last years order or even wait the games differently. I'm sure the reason for alternative is in case there isn't a full season. I bet the commissioner also is trying to avoid tanking in a short season down the stretch. They may go based off winning percentage this year assuming teams don't play all 60, but they penalize a team for playing a short season and legitimately sucking, especially when scouting will be a craps shoot to begin with.
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Post by kman22 on Aug 19, 2020 23:52:52 GMT -5
Are you talking about combining records? I had assumed it would be win percentage, with this season as the tiebreaker, if they went the cumulative route. What's the difference? Basically wondering if it would be 84-78 added to 7-18 to get 91-96 or if it would be the average of .519 and .280, which is rounded to .400. Not sure how different that would make their draft spot, but I'm guessing it would be noticeable as one averages to a 79 win team and the other averages to a 65 win team (over 162 games).
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 23, 2020 17:32:07 GMT -5
Another week ticked off the calendar, and still in second place behind Pittsburgh, albeit tied with the Angels.
1 week to salary reset, five weeks to draft.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Aug 23, 2020 22:54:50 GMT -5
Another week ticked off the calendar, and still in second place behind Pittsburgh, albeit tied with the Angels. 1 week to salary reset, five weeks to draft. A tie with the Angels is broken by last year's draft slot, so the Red Sox sit #3 unless Manfred is cooking up more shenanigans.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 27, 2020 14:43:02 GMT -5
Regarding this Red Sox team this year, there bad it doesnt matter how many games they played.The last podcast broke it down. Pitching bottom line. Any other year we would be in the thick of the playoff race. This is a perfect year for some team to take away a championship. Look at the Yankees there licking there chops. Cashman might actually have a full nights sleep in the offseason.
For the commisioner to get involved in the draft would be unjustfied. This year is this year. Are you gonna tell me if the Sox have a top 5 pick this guy gets involved? I would feel comfortable of something is said now. Just some parameters. I dont trust this guy because what if some teams cry about the Sox standings? I hope this is not the case I just want to bring it up.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 27, 2020 16:18:08 GMT -5
I'd be so damn upset if they didn't take just 2020 into account. If this goes a full season and through to a winner - a W/S Champ -there is no way 2019 should count.
They aren't combining records of 2019 and 2020 to see who gets into the playoffs, so why should they combine those numbers for the draft?
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