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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 14:48:06 GMT -5
There was never a time when the Red Sox could/would have traded Trey Ball for a significant piece. You don’t know that nor do I. But I bet when he was a top 100 prospect he could have brought something back of value Like what? A fringy reliever who can't get anybody out? A utility player five minutes away from being released?
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 14:49:18 GMT -5
There was never a time when the Red Sox could/would have traded Trey Ball for a significant piece. It depends on your definition of “significant piece,” in much the same way as it depends on your definition of “can’t miss.” Or “replacement player” for that matter. It’s not a bench player or small reliever. It’s contributing player to a team contending for playoffs or thought to play a significant role on a team
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 14:52:43 GMT -5
You don’t know that nor do I. But I bet when he was a top 100 prospect he could have brought something back of value Like what? A fringy reliever who can't get anybody out? A utility player five minutes away from being released? Just pay attention to trades this year. You will see the ones that have top 100 prospect in them bring back a significant return. But we agree. Ball sucked. Hated the pick then as I wanted meadows. ( or Frazier). But you don’t know what was talked then nor do I. What I can do is watch and see what top 100 prospects get back in return now. Or have over past year. Further I believe Red Sox at 4 can find a player better than trey ball. Or having upside better than trey ball
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2021 14:54:38 GMT -5
There was never a time when the Red Sox could/would have traded Trey Ball for a significant piece. You don’t know that nor do I. But I bet when he was a top 100 prospect he could have brought something back of value I think you are assuming teams trade based on Baseball America lists and not what any scouts can see. Ball was pretty clearly a bit of a mess from the start, and I’m guessing any team that saw an inexperienced lefty throwing 88-91 with no control or command, they would not say “but he is in the top 100!” Those rankings seem to lag a bit. Mookie was blasting in Boston before he even had a chance to max out his place on that list. Ball lingered as a former high pick.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 14:58:03 GMT -5
Like what? A fringy reliever who can't get anybody out? A utility player five minutes away from being released? Just pay attention to trades this year. You will see the ones that have top 100 prospect in them bring back a significant return. But we agree. Ball sucked. Hated the pick then as I wanted meadows. ( or Frazier). But you don’t know what was talked then nor do I. What I can do is watch and see what top 100 prospects get back in return now. Or have over past year. Further I believe Red Sox at 4 can find a player better than trey ball. Or having upside better than trey ball You seem to have a fixation on Top 100. I mean if somebody was ranked 115th and was playing well in the minors versus a higher pedigree who is flopping badly I would think the former would get a heckuva lot more value than the latter. I don't think all Top 100 are equal here. Performance in the minors matters. And yes, I hope the Sox can do better than what Ball was. At #4 they should be able to. That draft year the big debate was Frazier/Meadows and while Meadows did have a good season a couple of years ago and Frazier has been promising at times, neither set the world on fire. Aaron Judge was selected further down in the draft. And there can be a difference between picking 4th and 7th. The Sox should have a high quality pick regardless of who they get. But you can't say "Can't miss". They can miss. Al Chambers, Bryan Bullington, Appel, Moniak....these guys were 1st round, 1st pick....and they have missed or are missing. There are no guarantees in the draft, just better odds. And a lot of luck along the way.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 16, 2021 15:08:02 GMT -5
It depends on what your definition of "is" is.
FWIW, it is fairly common for a player to get drafted, go to the complex league or fall Instructs, and the pro scouts see him and ask "He got drafted WHERE? And got paid HOW MUCH?" This is something that we've experienced with Red Sox picks (if you've been playing attention you could probably guess some of the names...) and that Ben Badler and Carlos Collazo discussed on an episode of Future Projection, so it happens elsewhere too. You can't assume just because a guy gets drafted at a certain point he's got a certain value for a certain amount of time.
Also, Trey Ball wouldn't have been eligible to be traded for a year after signing, although in theory he could've been a PTBNL 6 months after. By then the shine would almost certainly have been off the apple.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 15:15:40 GMT -5
It depends on what your definition of "is" is. FWIW, it is fairly common for a player to get drafted, go to the complex league or fall Instructs, and the pro scouts see him and ask "He got drafted WHERE? And got paid HOW MUCH?" This is something that we've experienced with Red Sox picks (if you've been playing attention you could probably guess some of the names...) and that Ben Badler and Carlos Collazo discussed on an episode of Future Projection, so it happens elsewhere too. You can't assume just because a guy gets drafted at a certain point he's got a certain value for a certain amount of time. Also, Trey Ball wouldn't have been eligible to be traded for a year after signing, although in theory he could've been a PTBNL 6 months after. By then the shine would almost certainly have been off the apple. I think the only way it could work the way DYoungTeach is talking about is if trading draft picks were permitted. Maybe Ball would have had a higher trade value on draft day itself, but like you said, other than PTBNL, you can't trade draft picks within that first year and by then Ball's value wasn't pointing upward.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 15:15:59 GMT -5
You don’t know that nor do I. But I bet when he was a top 100 prospect he could have brought something back of value I think you are assuming teams trade based on Baseball America lists and not what any scouts can see. Ball was pretty clearly a bit of a mess from the start, and I’m guessing any team that saw an inexperienced lefty throwing 88-91 with no control or command, they would not say “but he is in the top 100!” Those rankings seem to lag a bit. Mookie was blasting in Boston before he even had a chance to max out his place on that list. Ball lingered as a former high pick. No I’m not assuming teams don’t watch a player and make judgements based on that. And we agree ball sucked. I just don’t agree that top 100 prospects don’t fetch some nice value in trades. We digress though. Whole dang point is Red Sox have the ability at number 4 to draft an impact talent. And I’m fairly confident they will pick someone who is can’t miss in terms of being a top 100 prospect and have some nice value via trade almost immediately
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 15:20:02 GMT -5
Just pay attention to trades this year. You will see the ones that have top 100 prospect in them bring back a significant return. But we agree. Ball sucked. Hated the pick then as I wanted meadows. ( or Frazier). But you don’t know what was talked then nor do I. What I can do is watch and see what top 100 prospects get back in return now. Or have over past year. Further I believe Red Sox at 4 can find a player better than trey ball. Or having upside better than trey ball You seem to have a fixation on Top 100. I mean if somebody was ranked 115th and was playing well in the minors versus a higher pedigree who is flopping badly I would think the former would get a heckuva lot more value than the latter. I don't think all Top 100 are equal here. Performance in the minors matters. And yes, I hope the Sox can do better than what Ball was. At #4 they should be able to. That draft year the big debate was Frazier/Meadows and while Meadows did have a good season a couple of years ago and Frazier has been promising at times, neither set the world on fire. Aaron Judge was selected further down in the draft. And there can be a difference between picking 4th and 7th. The Sox should have a high quality pick regardless of who they get. But you can't say "Can't miss". They can miss. Al Chambers, Bryan Bullington, Appel, Moniak....these guys were 1st round, 1st pick....and they have missed or are missing. There are no guarantees in the draft, just better odds. And a lot of luck along the way. I believe I said Red Sox have ability to pick a can’t miss prospect at 4. That one of if not more of the players we have been talking about will have immediate value. So yes I can say “can’t miss”. You don’t have to agree because you feel you know better or whatever. Hell you can have whatever opinion you want. But my opinion based off past drafts is the Red Sox at 4 can absolutely draft a can’t miss prospect who will have value in a trade or to be developed as a significant piece. ( again I used kelenic while a met as proof in trade. Or heck after). And THAT was my statement the whole time. Let’s see what happens. Time will tell
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 15:22:38 GMT -5
It depends on what your definition of "is" is. FWIW, it is fairly common for a player to get drafted, go to the complex league or fall Instructs, and the pro scouts see him and ask "He got drafted WHERE? And got paid HOW MUCH?" This is something that we've experienced with Red Sox picks (if you've been playing attention you could probably guess some of the names...) and that Ben Badler and Carlos Collazo discussed on an episode of Future Projection, so it happens elsewhere too. You can't assume just because a guy gets drafted at a certain point he's got a certain value for a certain amount of time. Also, Trey Ball wouldn't have been eligible to be traded for a year after signing, although in theory he could've been a PTBNL 6 months after. By then the shine would almost certainly have been off the apple. I think the only way it could work the way DYoungTeach is talking about is if trading draft picks were permitted. Maybe Ball would have had a higher trade value on draft day itself, but like you said, other than PTBNL, you can't trade draft picks within that first year and by then Ball's value wasn't pointing upward. Actually drafted players can be dealt right after World Series and don’t need to wait 6 months. That’s before many instructional leagues I believe also.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 15:23:03 GMT -5
I think you are assuming teams trade based on Baseball America lists and not what any scouts can see. Ball was pretty clearly a bit of a mess from the start, and I’m guessing any team that saw an inexperienced lefty throwing 88-91 with no control or command, they would not say “but he is in the top 100!” Those rankings seem to lag a bit. Mookie was blasting in Boston before he even had a chance to max out his place on that list. Ball lingered as a former high pick. No I’m not assuming teams don’t watch a player and make judgements based on that. And we agree ball sucked. I just don’t agree that top 100 prospects don’t fetch some nice value in trades. We digress though. Whole dang point is Red Sox have the ability at number 4 to draft an impact talent. And I’m fairly confident they will pick someone who is can’t miss in terms of being a top 100 prospect and have some nice value via trade almost immediately Top 100 picks can have some serious trade value, nobody is arguing that. It's that you seem to be making a blanket statement that if you're a Top 100 prospect (like the second you're drafted) you should be able to return some serious trade value. That is where you're getting a lot of pushback/disagreement. A lot of us don't agree with that. You mention that the Sox picking 4th are in a "can't miss" position, and that's not true. First picks of the draft have failed before and will fail again. They do miss on occasion. At #4 the Sox should be able to get a strong draft pick, but that doesn't make it "can't miss". They certainly CAN miss. I forgot to mention the Yankees' drafting of Brien Taylor 1st in the draft in 1991. He missed - and very badly. And as Chris said, yeah great you draft a guy 4th - that doesn't mean you can trade him today and get value for him. The rules basically prohibit that unless he's a PTBNL, but what are you going to do? Trade a Trea Turner as a PTBNL a minute after drafting him? Basically you're going to draft a player with the hopes that he can pan out. To do that you have to give him a chance and if he flops badly from the get-go, there goes your trade value, even with a pedigree.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 16, 2021 15:34:25 GMT -5
You seem to have a fixation on Top 100. I mean if somebody was ranked 115th and was playing well in the minors versus a higher pedigree who is flopping badly I would think the former would get a heckuva lot more value than the latter. I don't think all Top 100 are equal here. Performance in the minors matters. And yes, I hope the Sox can do better than what Ball was. At #4 they should be able to. That draft year the big debate was Frazier/Meadows and while Meadows did have a good season a couple of years ago and Frazier has been promising at times, neither set the world on fire. Aaron Judge was selected further down in the draft. And there can be a difference between picking 4th and 7th. The Sox should have a high quality pick regardless of who they get. But you can't say "Can't miss". They can miss. Al Chambers, Bryan Bullington, Appel, Moniak....these guys were 1st round, 1st pick....and they have missed or are missing. There are no guarantees in the draft, just better odds. And a lot of luck along the way. I believe I said Red Sox have ability to pick a can’t miss prospect at 4. That one of if not more of the players we have been talking about will have immediate value. So yes I can say “can’t miss”. You don’t have to agree because you feel you know better or whatever. Hell you can have whatever opinion you want. But my opinion based off past drafts is the Red Sox at 4 can absolutely draft a can’t miss prospect who will have value in a trade or to be developed as a significant piece. ( again I used kelenic while a met as proof in trade. Or heck after). And THAT was my statement the whole time. Let’s see what happens. Time will tell Now look, I understand that you are absolutely determined to die on the hill that "can't miss" actually means "can miss but will have significant trade value at some point in time at least," but I do want to point out that about two-thirds of #4 picks, historically, do not turn into successful major leaguers.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2021 15:36:30 GMT -5
You seem to have a fixation on Top 100. I mean if somebody was ranked 115th and was playing well in the minors versus a higher pedigree who is flopping badly I would think the former would get a heckuva lot more value than the latter. I don't think all Top 100 are equal here. Performance in the minors matters. And yes, I hope the Sox can do better than what Ball was. At #4 they should be able to. That draft year the big debate was Frazier/Meadows and while Meadows did have a good season a couple of years ago and Frazier has been promising at times, neither set the world on fire. Aaron Judge was selected further down in the draft. And there can be a difference between picking 4th and 7th. The Sox should have a high quality pick regardless of who they get. But you can't say "Can't miss". They can miss. Al Chambers, Bryan Bullington, Appel, Moniak....these guys were 1st round, 1st pick....and they have missed or are missing. There are no guarantees in the draft, just better odds. And a lot of luck along the way. I believe I said Red Sox have ability to pick a can’t miss prospect at 4. That one of if not more of the players we have been talking about will have immediate value. So yes I can say “can’t miss”. You don’t have to agree because you feel you know better or whatever. Hell you can have whatever opinion you want. But my opinion based off past drafts is the Red Sox at 4 can absolutely draft a can’t miss prospect who will have value in a trade or to be developed as a significant piece. ( again I used kelenic while a met as proof in trade. Or heck after). And THAT was my statement the whole time. Let’s see what happens. Time will tell Look, I don’t follow these things that closely, so accept correction.... but based on what people have been arguing/discussing, it doesn’t seem like there are 4 consensus “can’t miss” guys in this draft. So to my eyes, it looks like the Sox will almost certainly drafting someone who is *not* “can’t miss.” Maybe that phrase gets tossed around too much, but I feel like there have been pretty few actual money-in-the-bank guys since I’ve had half an eye on it. Junior. A-Rod. Harper. Strasburg. Fill in some more, but... for god’s sake, by the standard of #1=can’t miss, Kumar Rocker seems to have worked (injured?) himself out of can’t miss in the span of a month! Again... I’m a bad judge, but I have yet to see someone who looks safely can’t miss, nor have I seen anyone advocating for a pick in those terms. Everyone who has proposed a possible pick seems explicitly or implicitly ready to move off that person if conditions change... which suggests they don’t even see their own guy as “can’t miss”! My view is there are two basic groups of picks: risky, but possibly hugely rewarding and risk mitigation. “Can’t miss” probably rolls around every 5 years.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 15:41:04 GMT -5
No I’m not assuming teams don’t watch a player and make judgements based on that. And we agree ball sucked. I just don’t agree that top 100 prospects don’t fetch some nice value in trades. We digress though. Whole dang point is Red Sox have the ability at number 4 to draft an impact talent. And I’m fairly confident they will pick someone who is can’t miss in terms of being a top 100 prospect and have some nice value via trade almost immediately Top 100 picks can have some serious trade value, nobody is arguing that. It's that you seem to be making a blanket statement that if you're a Top 100 prospect (like the second you're drafted) you should be able to return some serious trade value. That is where you're getting a lot of pushback/disagreement. A lot of us don't agree with that. You mention that the Sox picking 4th are in a "can't miss" position, and that's not true. First picks of the draft have failed before and will fail again. They do miss on occasion. At #4 the Sox should be able to get a strong draft pick, but that doesn't make it "can't miss". They certainly CAN miss. I forgot to mention the Yankees' drafting of Brien Taylor 1st in the draft in 1991. He missed - and very badly. And as Chris said, yeah great you draft a guy 4th - that doesn't mean you can trade him today and get value for him. The rules basically prohibit that unless he's a PTBNL, but what are you going to do? Trade a Trea Turner as a PTBNL a minute after drafting him? Basically you're going to draft a player with the hopes that he can pan out. To do that you have to give him a chance and if he flops badly from the get-go, there goes your trade value, even with a pedigree. We just disagree. Because at one point brien Taylor could have fetched a pretty return in trade. Those players will hold value past World Series! It’s been proven in trades before. Time and time and time again! You fail to see the countless times players just drafted have been traded for impact players ( usually at trade deadline)! This whole “ discussion” started when someone said Red Sox aren’t guaranteed to have an impact player at 4. I absolutely disagree with that! And we dont have to agree. Your not gm or work in front office. I don’t. Time will tell who’s right or wrong. You don’t agree to see views you don’t want to see that’s fine. As a fan I’m not going to sit and say Red Sox don’t have a chance at an impact player picking at 4. To many have been picked or chosen over past 3 years alone ( between 4-10). Either way we will add a pretty significant talent. One that could pay dividends for years down the road. Or one that could flop. But I’m willing to bet that a major impact talent will be drafted between 4-10 and further 2-3 will be top 100 prospects before next year Looked at last years draft briefly: lacy, Martin, gonzales, hassell, veen, and crochet are all either top 100 prospects or in majors ( Crockett). And none of them have played a stitch of minor league ball yet. If you say one of those names couldn’t be traded for a pretty nice piece right now..... well just study trades a lot more. Value of top prospects have went WAY up.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 15:45:40 GMT -5
I believe I said Red Sox have ability to pick a can’t miss prospect at 4. That one of if not more of the players we have been talking about will have immediate value. So yes I can say “can’t miss”. You don’t have to agree because you feel you know better or whatever. Hell you can have whatever opinion you want. But my opinion based off past drafts is the Red Sox at 4 can absolutely draft a can’t miss prospect who will have value in a trade or to be developed as a significant piece. ( again I used kelenic while a met as proof in trade. Or heck after). And THAT was my statement the whole time. Let’s see what happens. Time will tell Look, I don’t follow these things that closely, so accept correction.... but based on what people have been arguing/discussing, it doesn’t seem like there are 4 consensus “can’t miss” guys in this draft. So to my eyes, it looks like the Sox will almost certainly drafting someone who is *not* “can’t miss.” Maybe that phrase gets tossed around too much, but I feel like there have been pretty few actual money-in-the-bank guys since I’ve had half an eye on it. Junior. A-Rod. Harper. Strasburg. Fill in some more, but... for god’s sake, by the standard of #1=can’t miss, Kumar Rocker seems to have worked (injured?) himself out of can’t miss in the span of a month! Again... I’m a bad judge, but I have yet to see someone who looks safely can’t miss, nor have I seen anyone advocating for a pick in those terms. Everyone who has proposed a possible pick seems explicitly or implicitly ready to move off that person if conditions change... which suggests they don’t even see their own guy as “can’t miss”! My view is there are two basic groups of picks: risky, but possibly hugely rewarding and risk mitigation. “Can’t miss” probably rolls around every 5 years. Your definition of can’t miss and mine is different. Those guys were dang near ball of famers or potential ones. That’s not my definition of can’t miss
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2021 15:46:12 GMT -5
Top 100 picks can have some serious trade value, nobody is arguing that. It's that you seem to be making a blanket statement that if you're a Top 100 prospect (like the second you're drafted) you should be able to return some serious trade value. That is where you're getting a lot of pushback/disagreement. A lot of us don't agree with that. You mention that the Sox picking 4th are in a "can't miss" position, and that's not true. First picks of the draft have failed before and will fail again. They do miss on occasion. At #4 the Sox should be able to get a strong draft pick, but that doesn't make it "can't miss". They certainly CAN miss. I forgot to mention the Yankees' drafting of Brien Taylor 1st in the draft in 1991. He missed - and very badly. And as Chris said, yeah great you draft a guy 4th - that doesn't mean you can trade him today and get value for him. The rules basically prohibit that unless he's a PTBNL, but what are you going to do? Trade a Trea Turner as a PTBNL a minute after drafting him? Basically you're going to draft a player with the hopes that he can pan out. To do that you have to give him a chance and if he flops badly from the get-go, there goes your trade value, even with a pedigree. We just disagree. Because at one point brien Taylor could have fetched a pretty return in trade. Those players will hold value past World Series! It’s been proven in trades before. Time and time and time again! You fail to see the countless times players just drafted have been traded for impact players ( usually at trade deadline)! This whole “ discussion” started when someone said Red Sox aren’t guaranteed to have an impact player at 4. I absolutely disagree with that! And we dont have to agree. Your not gm or work in front office. I don’t. Time will tell who’s right or wrong. You don’t agree to see views you don’t want to see that’s fine. As a fan I’m not going to sit and say Red Sox don’t have a chance at an impact player picking at 4. To many have been picked or chosen over past 3 years alone ( between 4-10). Either way we will add a pretty significant talent. One that could pay dividends for years down the road. Or one that could flop. But I’m willing to bet that a major impact talent will be drafted between 4-10 and further 2-3 will be top 100 prospects before next year Looked at last years draft briefly: lacy, Martin, gonzales, hassell, veen, and crochet are all either top 100 prospects or in majors ( Crockett). And none of them have played a stitch of minor league ball yet. If you say one of those names couldn’t be traded for a pretty nice piece right now..... well just study trades a lot more. Value of top prospects have went WAY up. The thing is, even granting the hypothetical... you are asking GMs to tell the future. How could the Yankees trade Brien Taylor when he was healthy? What would have been worth it? Then, hurt, he was worthless. Yes, if they knew he’d get hurt, they should have traded him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 16, 2021 16:06:51 GMT -5
Yeah this is why I don't get using "he has trade value at one time" as meaningful. Like Triston Casas has trade value right now. Are they supposed to trade him?
Let's reset - what's actually the point here? I don't even know.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Apr 16, 2021 16:10:49 GMT -5
This is your by now signature move in which you make a false claim ("A top 100 prospect is a can’t miss"), get corrected, and then make a different claim ("could have traded ... for something major"), as though you were not 100% wrong the first time. You think we don't notice this? So you think you know what I meant by can’t miss prospect? Gotcha. Dang sure wish I had your intelligence to be able to read a blog and understand what a person interprets as can’t miss. The whole point of prospects is to have value. If you have been following baseball you know players can’t be developed or traded. If you don’t know that.... well now you do. Can’t miss is value of a player bringing something back to the team. But hey. Why don’t you tell me what I mean or am thinking next time also. Doesn't take much intelligence to know what the English words "Can't" and "miss" mean. Saying someone is a "can't miss prospect" is not at all similar to saying "his value is not zero." The claim "Can’t miss is value of a player bringing something [[something???]] back to the team" is preposterous.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 16:13:23 GMT -5
We just disagree. Because at one point brien Taylor could have fetched a pretty return in trade. Those players will hold value past World Series! It’s been proven in trades before. Time and time and time again! You fail to see the countless times players just drafted have been traded for impact players ( usually at trade deadline)! This whole “ discussion” started when someone said Red Sox aren’t guaranteed to have an impact player at 4. I absolutely disagree with that! And we dont have to agree. Your not gm or work in front office. I don’t. Time will tell who’s right or wrong. You don’t agree to see views you don’t want to see that’s fine. As a fan I’m not going to sit and say Red Sox don’t have a chance at an impact player picking at 4. To many have been picked or chosen over past 3 years alone ( between 4-10). Either way we will add a pretty significant talent. One that could pay dividends for years down the road. Or one that could flop. But I’m willing to bet that a major impact talent will be drafted between 4-10 and further 2-3 will be top 100 prospects before next year Looked at last years draft briefly: lacy, Martin, gonzales, hassell, veen, and crochet are all either top 100 prospects or in majors ( Crockett). And none of them have played a stitch of minor league ball yet. If you say one of those names couldn’t be traded for a pretty nice piece right now..... well just study trades a lot more. Value of top prospects have went WAY up. The thing is, even granting the hypothetical... you are asking GMs to tell the future. How could the Yankees trade Brien Taylor when he was healthy? What would have been worth it? Then, hurt, he was worthless. Yes, if they knew he’d get hurt, they should have traded him. Is t that a gms job or part of it? To continually grade and evaluate players to maximize his value? Easier said than done and in hindsite. Again I’m simply saying a drafted player has can’t miss value. Because he will be able to be traded right away if desired or kept. But the statement that Red Sox can’t guarantee they will get any value out of pick 4 is way off. Let’s hope they don’t do that and keep him The whole point of this has been to refute a statement that you can’t guarantee Red Sox get any value at 4. And that’s so far off base especially in current baseball climate and how much top prospects are valued. I can guarantee the Red Sox have ability to pick a can’t miss prospect with top 100 prospect value at pick 4. And there will be several chosen between picks 4-10. (2-3).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 16:16:53 GMT -5
Top 100 picks can have some serious trade value, nobody is arguing that. It's that you seem to be making a blanket statement that if you're a Top 100 prospect (like the second you're drafted) you should be able to return some serious trade value. That is where you're getting a lot of pushback/disagreement. A lot of us don't agree with that. You mention that the Sox picking 4th are in a "can't miss" position, and that's not true. First picks of the draft have failed before and will fail again. They do miss on occasion. At #4 the Sox should be able to get a strong draft pick, but that doesn't make it "can't miss". They certainly CAN miss. I forgot to mention the Yankees' drafting of Brien Taylor 1st in the draft in 1991. He missed - and very badly. And as Chris said, yeah great you draft a guy 4th - that doesn't mean you can trade him today and get value for him. The rules basically prohibit that unless he's a PTBNL, but what are you going to do? Trade a Trea Turner as a PTBNL a minute after drafting him? Basically you're going to draft a player with the hopes that he can pan out. To do that you have to give him a chance and if he flops badly from the get-go, there goes your trade value, even with a pedigree. We just disagree. Because at one point brien Taylor could have fetched a pretty return in trade. Those players will hold value past World Series! It’s been proven in trades before. Time and time and time again! You fail to see the countless times players just drafted have been traded for impact players ( usually at trade deadline)! This whole “ discussion” started when someone said Red Sox aren’t guaranteed to have an impact player at 4. I absolutely disagree with that! And we dont have to agree. Your not gm or work in front office. I don’t. Time will tell who’s right or wrong. You don’t agree to see views you don’t want to see that’s fine. As a fan I’m not going to sit and say Red Sox don’t have a chance at an impact player picking at 4. To many have been picked or chosen over past 3 years alone ( between 4-10). Either way we will add a pretty significant talent. One that could pay dividends for years down the road. Or one that could flop. But I’m willing to bet that a major impact talent will be drafted between 4-10 and further 2-3 will be top 100 prospects before next year Looked at last years draft briefly: lacy, Martin, gonzales, hassell, veen, and crochet are all either top 100 prospects or in majors ( Crockett). And none of them have played a stitch of minor league ball yet. If you say one of those names couldn’t be traded for a pretty nice piece right now..... well just study trades a lot more. Value of top prospects have went WAY up. So basically you're saying that GMs should know within the first year of having a player if he's going to be a flop or not, and if they determine they are, they should trade them right away. Shame on Gene Michael for not knowing Brien Taylor was going to get into a barroom brawl and wreck his career. Should have traded him when he got the chance? Look, you can make the argument that the Sox held onto Blake Swihart or Michael Bowden or Henry Owens too long. I get that argument. They both showed some promise in the minors and the Sox gambled that they'd carry it forward to the majors and got little. At that point those players were developed enough to have a reasonable idea of what their warts/strengths were going to be as they were mostly developed at that point, but the players you're talking about have barely been developed. Teams after they draft players want to develop them and see what happens instead of trying to do crystal ball projections where the certainty level is just so low (as opposed to a more developed prospect) and getting rid of drafted players really quickly. I guarantee you the Mets will totally regret that Kelenic deal, if they don't already.
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 16:17:18 GMT -5
So you think you know what I meant by can’t miss prospect? Gotcha. Dang sure wish I had your intelligence to be able to read a blog and understand what a person interprets as can’t miss. The whole point of prospects is to have value. If you have been following baseball you know players can’t be developed or traded. If you don’t know that.... well now you do. Can’t miss is value of a player bringing something back to the team. But hey. Why don’t you tell me what I mean or am thinking next time also. Doesn't take much intelligence to know what the English words "Can't" and "miss" mean. Saying someone is a "can't miss prospect" is not at all similar to saying "his value is not zero." The claim "Can’t miss is value of a player bringing something [[something???]] back to the team" is preposterous. Yup can’t miss to have significant value. Seems you might need to brush up on that deductive reasoning and being able to tell what someone means. Sorry you think that’s so preposterous and fail to see that prospects have been traded before early and fetched some major value or that they have and are top 100 rated prospects already. Just hint: when you assume.... well you know completion of that saying. Try not doing that. It will make life easier for you
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 16, 2021 16:22:14 GMT -5
We just disagree. Because at one point brien Taylor could have fetched a pretty return in trade. Those players will hold value past World Series! It’s been proven in trades before. Time and time and time again! You fail to see the countless times players just drafted have been traded for impact players ( usually at trade deadline)! This whole “ discussion” started when someone said Red Sox aren’t guaranteed to have an impact player at 4. I absolutely disagree with that! And we dont have to agree. Your not gm or work in front office. I don’t. Time will tell who’s right or wrong. You don’t agree to see views you don’t want to see that’s fine. As a fan I’m not going to sit and say Red Sox don’t have a chance at an impact player picking at 4. To many have been picked or chosen over past 3 years alone ( between 4-10). Either way we will add a pretty significant talent. One that could pay dividends for years down the road. Or one that could flop. But I’m willing to bet that a major impact talent will be drafted between 4-10 and further 2-3 will be top 100 prospects before next year Looked at last years draft briefly: lacy, Martin, gonzales, hassell, veen, and crochet are all either top 100 prospects or in majors ( Crockett). And none of them have played a stitch of minor league ball yet. If you say one of those names couldn’t be traded for a pretty nice piece right now..... well just study trades a lot more. Value of top prospects have went WAY up. So basically you're saying that GMs should know within the first year of having a player if he's going to be a flop or not, and if they determine they are, they should trade them right away. Shame on Gene Michael for not knowing Brien Taylor was going to get into a barroom brawl and wreck his career. Should have traded him when he got the chance? Look, you can make the argument that the Sox held onto Blake Swihart or Michael Bowden or Henry Owens too long. I get that argument. They both showed some promise in the minors and the Sox gambled that they'd carry it forward to the majors and got little. At that point those players were developed enough to have a reasonable idea of what their warts/strengths were going to be as they were mostly developed at that point, but the players you're talking about have barely been developed. Teams after they draft players want to develop them and see what happens instead of trying to do crystal ball projections and getting rid of drafted players really quickly. I guarantee you the Mets will totally regret that Kelenic deal, if they don't already. No I’m simply saying that top pick will have immediate value to Red Sox and other teams!!! Period. As will many others picked 4-10. ( I’ve said 2-3 will be top 100 prospects). Now how a gm maximizes said value is another whole discussion! Welcome to the bloom/Theo argument vs dombrowski arguement. I’m not saying a gm is bad for not trading right away and risking getting 6 years of low salary. But that’s it All this other “stuff” ( put nicely) is just argumentative facts meant to discredit someone’s opinion because you don’t agree with it. And to be fair... we don’t fully know what a just traded player could fetch but we can ascertain from past trades what they can get.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 16, 2021 16:26:27 GMT -5
Let's move on. We've gotten so far off track from a discussion of the 2021 draft. Thanks.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Apr 16, 2021 16:41:52 GMT -5
Doesn't take much intelligence to know what the English words "Can't" and "miss" mean. Saying someone is a "can't miss prospect" is not at all similar to saying "his value is not zero." The claim "Can’t miss is value of a player bringing something [[something???]] back to the team" is preposterous. Yup can’t miss to have significant value. Seems you might need to brush up on that deductive reasoning and being able to tell what someone means. Sorry you think that’s so preposterous and fail to see that prospects have been traded before early and fetched some major value or that they have and are top 100 rated prospects already. Just hint: when you assume.... well you know completion of that saying. Try not doing that. It will make life easier for you It's not deductive reasoning, Sherlock. It's not what you were trying to say. It's what you said. It's what the words mean and and what everyone else thinks they mean. You don't get to have an idiolect. Not going to comment anymore.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 16, 2021 16:46:47 GMT -5
Anyways.... does anyone have their eyes on any college games/matchups coming up this weekend? Vandy vs Tennessee should be a good watch. Hopefully Rocker bounces back. Not that I'm really angling for the Sox to take him overall but it'd be best for the Sox if he starts showing his plus stuff again so that it adds possibilities back.
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