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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 12, 2021 10:04:56 GMT -5
I wouldn't expect the biggest Sox guys to surface yet. Like if you're going to bring Bloom or the national crosscheckers in why wouldn't he go to, say, the SEC tournament and get one-stop shopping on a bunch of guys? Great point, just have heard other things about orioles and tigers which are above and below. The intel from a couple different sources seems to be Pirates Rangers Leiter, Lawlar what ever order. Detroit loves Mayer but also had a heavy presence to see House. Orioles Gm has also seen House and they Love Mayer, but may go Davis. Red Sox?? Well...I mean Kumar Rocker hasn’t been picked yet so... that’s all I’m saying. The Bloom FO has been airtight as far as leaks go. I'd presume that'll apply to the draft too. (BTW, got to say hi in person finally yesterday. Nice dude on a day he was being pulled in a lot of directions.)
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Post by bcsox on May 12, 2021 11:12:55 GMT -5
Lets just say the Sox have intel that gunner may get to them at 40, and it will take 1 mill over slot to sign him. How does that effect their first pick. Does it increase the chance they may grab the catcher from Louisville and try to get him underslot? If they go slot at #4, and then 1 million over slot at 40, does that bust the budget and we see a lot of senior signs in earlier rounds than usual, or can they go slot at 4, 1 million over at 40, and still have room to take high school kids or tough college signs with a few more picks?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 12, 2021 12:34:28 GMT -5
Lets just say the Sox have intel that gunner may get to them at 40, and it will take 1 mill over slot to sign him. How does that effect their first pick. Does it increase the chance they may grab the catcher from Louisville and try to get him underslot? If they go slot at #4, and then 1 million over slot at 40, does that bust the budget and we see a lot of senior signs in earlier rounds than usual, or can they go slot at 4, 1 million over at 40, and still have room to take high school kids or tough college signs with a few more picks? Probably affects rounds 5-10 more than round 1. You can save ~$1 million by going senior signs in round 5-10 if that's the direction they wanted to go. But on the other hand, I think if they go with Davis at 4 you can probably save a bit on slot without really "going the underslot route" if that makes sense.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 12, 2021 13:39:27 GMT -5
I know everyone has been waiting for this so here is my preference list
1) Marcelo Mayer 2) Jack Leiter 3) Henry Davis 4) Jordan Lawlar 5) Kumar Rocker 6) Brady House 7) Sal Frelick 8) Khalil Watson 9) Ty Madden 10) Joshua Baez
This is scientific and these players will rank 1-10 in war for this class in 4 years.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 12, 2021 13:56:09 GMT -5
This is probably a very unpopular take, and if it's stupid then.......well.... let's just all be happy I don't work in the Red Sox front office. But I wouldn't hate if they went a little underslot with a guy at #4 and spread the love around with a few of their picks in rounds 2-10. It always feels that we throw away a ton of senior signs to get ONE other guy but with the draft position they have this year and the money that comes with it they could draft several additional high talent prospects.
Let us face it, if you're drafting 1-10 any given year it's still more likely you're drafting a bust than a boom. The big difference I see in high picks is most of them do make the majors but most of them never turn into premium players. Now, I'm not going to differentiate from position player vs. pitchers here so I'll just say if you draft a future big leaguer you're much more likely to hit on a Kyle Schwarber than you're an Aaron Nola.
You could likely go undershot with a guy at #4 and still be taking a premium talent compared to the 20-32 range the Sox are used to sitting at.
I will say this, I will probably listen to the Soxprospects podcast and find a reason to fall in love with whoever they pick.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 12, 2021 16:38:13 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 12, 2021 16:49:51 GMT -5
I really like Rocker’s workhorse frame. Get me a Beckett/Lackey/Lester/Erod thiccc boi in here
Now that the velo came back I’m not concerned about him
If it came down to him or Davis at 4 I’d flip a coin
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Post by The Duck on May 12, 2021 17:13:24 GMT -5
Watching the Rucker video here and at the release point he appears to be looking straight down.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 12, 2021 17:49:39 GMT -5
Watching the Rucker video here and at the release point he appears to be looking straight down. Was listening to their podcast and one guy said something interesting: If you have the choice between Rocker and Jobe, why not pick Jobe? - Same 70 Grade Slider - Jobe has the better fastball (94-96 mph and touches 99) - Jobe has an avg changeup He's also 17 and hasn't been throwing 100+ pitchs/game for years now like Kumar. I'll prefer the fresher arm over the hyped one.
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 12, 2021 21:48:15 GMT -5
Watching the Rucker video here and at the release point he appears to be looking straight down. Was listening to their podcast and one guy said something interesting: If you have the choice between Rocker and Jobe, why not pick Jobe? - Same 70 Grade Slider - Jobe has the better fastball (94-96 mph and touches 99) - Jobe has an avg changeup He's also 17 and hasn't been throwing 100+ pitchs/game for years now like Kumar. I'll prefer the fresher arm over the hyped one. Rocker dominated the SEC for three years and Jobe dominated high school
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 12, 2021 22:33:21 GMT -5
Was listening to their podcast and one guy said something interesting: If you have the choice between Rocker and Jobe, why not pick Jobe? - Same 70 Grade Slider - Jobe has the better fastball (94-96 mph and touches 99) - Jobe has an avg changeup He's also 17 and hasn't been throwing 100+ pitchs/game for years now like Kumar. I'll prefer the fresher arm over the hyped one. Rocker dominated the SEC for three years and Jobe dominated high school What's that supposed to mean? Jobe should be taxed because he's not facing better competition? You make your pick based on your projections of future performances and these projections, when it comes to pitchers, should be based on their stuff and athleticism more than past performances. - Fastball: Jobe throws harder. - Changeup: Jobe has the edge here too with already an avg pitch with projection - Slider: They both have a 70. You add the fact that Jobe has less wear and tear on his arm (started pitching a year ago) with better athleticism (He was a middle infielder with a entincing bat for College Baseball) and it's easy for me to project who has the higher upside. And BTW, when facing better competition Jobe passed the test with flying colors Look how bad he made Brady House ,a sure fire top 10 pick in this year's draft, look.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 13, 2021 6:53:23 GMT -5
Rocker dominated the SEC for three years and Jobe dominated high school What's that supposed to mean? Jobe should be taxed because he's not facing better competition? You make your pick based on your projections of future performances and these projections, when it comes to pitchers, should be based on their stuff and athleticism more than past performances. - Fastball: Jobe throws harder. - Changeup: Jobe has the edge here too with already an avg pitch with projection - Slider: They both have a 70. You add the fact that Jobe has less wear and tear on his arm (started pitching a year ago) with better athleticism (He was a middle infielder with a entincing bat for College Baseball) and it's easy for me to project who has the higher upside. And BTW, when facing better competition Jobe passed the test with flying colors Look how bad he made Brady House ,a sure fire top 10 pick in this year's draft, look. You make some good points, but 1) a harder fastball is not necessarily a better fastball. Allen Webster threw 100. 2) Rocker has made it through the age 17-21 period throwing hard without blowing out his elbow. Will Jobe?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 13, 2021 7:15:58 GMT -5
What's that supposed to mean? Jobe should be taxed because he's not facing better competition? You make your pick based on your projections of future performances and these projections, when it comes to pitchers, should be based on their stuff and athleticism more than past performances. - Fastball: Jobe throws harder. - Changeup: Jobe has the edge here too with already an avg pitch with projection - Slider: They both have a 70. You add the fact that Jobe has less wear and tear on his arm (started pitching a year ago) with better athleticism (He was a middle infielder with a entincing bat for College Baseball) and it's easy for me to project who has the higher upside. And BTW, when facing better competition Jobe passed the test with flying colors Look how bad he made Brady House ,a sure fire top 10 pick in this year's draft, look. You make some good points, but 1) a harder fastball is not necessarily a better fastball. Allen Webster threw 100. 2) Rocker has made it through the age 17-21 period throwing hard without blowing out his elbow. Will Jobe? Jobe definitely seems like the best option for a prep pitcher but I'll agree with jimoh. Faster isn't always better and less mileage on the arm in theory is better but it's not an exact science where we can just say go with the guy who has thrown less. Also theoretically Rocker has had a workload closer to what he will be in the pros and seemingly has handled it with no injuries.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 13, 2021 7:57:19 GMT -5
Rocker dominated the SEC for three years and Jobe dominated high school What's that supposed to mean? Jobe should be taxed because he's not facing better competition? You make your pick based on your projections of future performances and these projections, when it comes to pitchers, should be based on their stuff and athleticism more than past performances. - Fastball: Jobe throws harder. - Changeup: Jobe has the edge here too with already an avg pitch with projection - Slider: They both have a 70. You add the fact that Jobe has less wear and tear on his arm (started pitching a year ago) with better athleticism (He was a middle infielder with a entincing bat for College Baseball) and it's easy for me to project who has the higher upside. And BTW, when facing better competition Jobe passed the test with flying colors Look how bad he made Brady House ,a sure fire top 10 pick in this year's draft, look. Not specifically speaking about Jobe or this specific instance but quality of competition is absolutely something that should be factored in
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2021 7:57:57 GMT -5
What's that supposed to mean? Jobe should be taxed because he's not facing better competition? You make your pick based on your projections of future performances and these projections, when it comes to pitchers, should be based on their stuff and athleticism more than past performances. - Fastball: Jobe throws harder. - Changeup: Jobe has the edge here too with already an avg pitch with projection - Slider: They both have a 70. You add the fact that Jobe has less wear and tear on his arm (started pitching a year ago) with better athleticism (He was a middle infielder with a entincing bat for College Baseball) and it's easy for me to project who has the higher upside. And BTW, when facing better competition Jobe passed the test with flying colors Look how bad he made Brady House ,a sure fire top 10 pick in this year's draft, look. You make some good points, but 1) a harder fastball is not necessarily a better fastball. Allen Webster threw 100. 2) Rocker has made it through the age 17-21 period throwing hard without blowing out his elbow. Will Jobe?Yeah, this is the most important part. If having less wear were an advantage, high school pitchers would consistently be better gets than college ones. But that's clearly not been the case. Lots of hard-throwing high schoolers end up either getting hurt outright or losing their fastball at like 20. Injuries happen to college pitchers, and sometimes a flaw will be exposed as they climb the ladder, but Rocker is further through the injury nexus than Jobe is. And I don't think saying that Rocker has dominated against better competition is a knock against Jobe, it's a credit to Rocker. The man threw the best-pitched college game I've ever seen. Getting Brady House to half-swing at a pitch two feet outside is nowhere near as impressive as this stuff. He took a top-20 team in the Super-Regionals and they had absolutely no chance: Also, for what it's worth, I am very skeptical that Jobe's slider is anything close to Rocker's. Future value, maybe, but Rocker's slider would work against major leaguers right now. If the Red Sox go a position player over Rocker then I'm fine with it, Boston has been good at developing position players and the risks with Rocker are real. If they go for Jobe over Rocker I'll be kinda furious.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 13, 2021 8:18:18 GMT -5
Keith Law updated his rankings to 100. His new top ten: 1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas 3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA) 4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 6. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College 7. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 8. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 9. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, GA) 10. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio) theathletic.com/2580901/2021/05/13/2021-mlb-draft-big-board-version-1-0-keith-law-ranks-the-top-100-draft-prospects-with-a-new-name-at-no-1/
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on May 13, 2021 8:36:31 GMT -5
Remember the Dan Duquette pitcher development philosophy? Let someone else develop them and we'll sign them!
The attrition risk of all players is high, and on pitchers seems especially so. Skills, beating competition in HS, beating competition in college, beating competition in minors, health, growth all need to align for a pitcher to even make the majors, much less thrive.
Obviously development is important (new pitches, repeatable mechanics, strength training) but I'd feel best about a pitcher who has passed through a few of the barriers to entry already. Rocker was as highly regarded in HS as Jobe is now and has now mostly thrived against better competition and stayed healthy. Give me the similar ceiling pitcher who is slightly less risky.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2021 9:17:00 GMT -5
Remember the Dan Duquette pitcher development philosophy? Let someone else develop them and we'll sign them! Ahh yes, Dan Duquette and his years of success building winning teams by signing pitchers. The one high-end pitching acquisition that worked (that Pedro dude) was acquired because he had Carl Pavano.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 13, 2021 9:23:12 GMT -5
Remember the Dan Duquette pitcher development philosophy? Let someone else develop them and we'll sign them! Ahh yes, Dan Duquette and his years of success building winning teams by signing pitchers. The one high-end pitching acquisition that worked (that Pedro dude) was acquired because he had Carl Pavano. James, please do not disparage Tony Armas, Jr. by omission! Haha
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2021 9:59:52 GMT -5
Whatever the argument for Jobe is, I imagine it looks mighty similar to whatever the arguments were for all the other high school pitchers who were taken at the top of the draft in years past... and then went on to wash out at a considerably higher rate than college pitchers, not to mention position players.
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Post by Guidas on May 13, 2021 10:08:53 GMT -5
Keith Law updated his rankings to 100. His new top ten: 1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas 3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA) 4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 6. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College 7. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 8. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 9. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, GA) 10. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio) theathletic.com/2580901/2021/05/13/2021-mlb-draft-big-board-version-1-0-keith-law-ranks-the-top-100-draft-prospects-with-a-new-name-at-no-1/I do hope the other GMs choke and Davis falls to the Sox. Sans that, one of Rocker, Leiter or Frelick will be fine.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 13, 2021 10:16:58 GMT -5
Whatever the argument for Jobe is, I imagine it looks mighty similar to whatever the arguments were for all the other high school pitchers who were taken at the top of the draft in years past... and then went on to wash out at a considerably higher rate than college pitchers, not to mention position players. Oth are higher than position players. But from list of last 10 years ( not counting last 2 because it’s to early) There were 8 high school pitchers taken in top 6 2 became solid players/prospects. 6 were injured. ( gore and Ian Anderson) College: There were more taken (10). 3 became elite pitchers and 8 were injured ( mize, Bauer, Cole) It definitely seems college is route to go that way at least high in draft looking at the 3 major successes but injury rate seems to be about the same. 25%
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Post by dyoungteach on May 13, 2021 10:19:29 GMT -5
Keith Law updated his rankings to 100. His new top ten: 1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas 3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA) 4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 6. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College 7. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 8. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 9. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, GA) 10. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio) theathletic.com/2580901/2021/05/13/2021-mlb-draft-big-board-version-1-0-keith-law-ranks-the-top-100-draft-prospects-with-a-new-name-at-no-1/I do hope the other GMs choke and Davis falls to the Sox. Sans that, one of Rocker, Leiter or Frelick will be fine. Has anyone else seen McLain this high? Or this Harry Ford? I just do not trust anything Keith law writes and sure wouldn’t pay to read his stuff. To me it’s almost as bad as paying for Dan shaunessey.
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Post by evanstonredsox on May 13, 2021 10:39:52 GMT -5
I do hope the other GMs choke and Davis falls to the Sox. Sans that, one of Rocker, Leiter or Frelick will be fine. Has anyone else seen McLain this high? Or this Harry Ford? I just do not trust anything Keith law writes and sure wouldn’t pay to read his stuff. To me it’s almost as bad as paying for Dan shaunessey. Honestly surprised we haven’t seen McLain this high on other lists. MLB had him in the top 3 to start the year then he showed no power in the first half of the season. He caught fire a few weeks ago and hit 7 homers in 12 games, now hitting .325. Feel like his stock has to be creeping back to what it was preseason, especially with so many other top 10 guys falling off.
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Post by tyler3 on May 13, 2021 10:59:28 GMT -5
If your a person who likes Henry Davis...as Law obviously does...then I think you can rest easy for the draft. That gives you 3 bats to like, Mayer, Lawlar, and Davis. In the event those are the top 3 than you have the Vandy boys, House...maybe Jobe. Law is a little weird. He says House struggled last summer and Fall which is not true. He struggled last summer, fell down boards, then had a great fall, and steadied the ship. So...I don’t get it. To me again everything hinges on Leiter....and how he comes back. I personally see his upside as greater than Rockers. He’s shown long periods of having an elite fastball, good curve, and good slider. Rocker can go a few innings with an elite slider and a good fastball. He almost never has both for an entire game (fastball command) and I’ve never seen him have 3 working. That’s my concern personally.
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