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Post by tyler on May 17, 2021 11:10:33 GMT -5
Wow what a great piece…I think that says it perfectly. So there were 6 games where Kumar averaged 94 or above and 6 games where he averaged 93 or below. His first 3 games were in the higher velocity, and that steep drop off in the middle. The dingers he gave up in the last game were 90 and 93 mph. He then just gave up on the fast ball and flummoxed the opposition for the next 5 with his breaking stuff. What a weird year.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 17, 2021 11:50:34 GMT -5
The chart on Kumar's velo made me feel better about him. I always worry about "hurlers". But he wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize! Lol
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Post by dyoungteach on May 17, 2021 12:12:47 GMT -5
The chart on Kumar's velo made me feel better about him. I always worry about "hurlers". But he wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize! Lol There are much much better consolation prizes. If we were picking 10 Ild agree. But at 4. No thank you 2 more months and we will find out
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 17, 2021 12:24:55 GMT -5
The chart on Kumar's velo made me feel better about him. I always worry about "hurlers". But he wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize! Lol There are much much better consolation prizes. If we were picking 10 Ild agree. But at 4. No thank you 2 more months and we will find out So I take it that you would prefer the Sox not draft Kumar #4? Just want to make sure.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,248
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2021 13:05:38 GMT -5
In the last weeks I've been digging deeper in the prospects lists and I'm really really liking Grant Holman, RHP from Cal, as my 2nd round pick: Former 2 ways player who's been focusing solely on pitching this year and the quality of the stuff followed. He's now working with a 93-96 mph fastball with outstanding movement, a crisp curveball and a very promising splitter. Still a work in progress (the slider is kind of meh) but I'm seeing a big upside here. Oh and he went to the same HS as a Marcelo Mayer 😅
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Post by tyler on May 17, 2021 18:57:04 GMT -5
Mayo and Callis did another alternating draft (not mock draft).
1: Mayer 2: Lawlar 3: Leiter 4: Davis 5: House 6: Jobe 7: Rocker 8: Watson
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 17, 2021 20:59:15 GMT -5
Listening to Callis talk about Jobe... oh baby
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 17, 2021 21:04:52 GMT -5
Listening to Callis talk about Jobe... oh baby That's where I'm at if we don't get Mayer or Lawlar.
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Post by geostorm on May 17, 2021 21:11:39 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on May 17, 2021 21:50:53 GMT -5
Ppl doing their damn best to talk me into a HS arm, I won’t allow it!!!!!*
*jk I’ll totally allow it
My new acceptable player pool to draft from in no particular order:
Leiter, Mayer, Lawlar, Rocker, Davis, Jobe, House
Watson may sneak his way up there
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Post by tyler on May 17, 2021 23:04:14 GMT -5
Listening to Callis talk about Jobe... oh baby Higher ceiling than Rocker or Leiter I believe was the quote. Top notch fastball, slider, change…even an average curve. Good lawd.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 1:41:07 GMT -5
Ppl doing their damn best to talk me into a HS arm, I won’t allow it!!!!!* *jk I’ll totally allow it My new acceptable player pool to draft from in no particular order: Leiter, Mayer, Lawlar, Rocker, Davis, Jobe, House Watson may sneak his way up there If Sox list ends up that long. One would think an under slot deal would be in play. Not because they have to. More because why the heck not if your list is that long with no separation in talent or projections.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2021 11:41:52 GMT -5
Looks at a topic discussed here often.
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Post by incandenza on May 18, 2021 11:46:33 GMT -5
Anyone care to summarize the key points, for the non-subscribers? (My guess is that they find high school pitchers don't do so well.)
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 12:02:26 GMT -5
Anyone care to summarize the key points, for the non-subscribers? (My guess is that they find high school pitchers don't do so well.) I also would like to know. I get the paper edition but that will be a few weeks out
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Post by southcoastghost on May 18, 2021 12:53:54 GMT -5
The article is specifically looking at profiles that are currently represented by the 2021 Top 10 draft rankings (so College Pitchers, College Catchers, College OFers and HS SS's) and seeing how those four profiles have done when selected in the Top 5 picks throughout the draft history. The three main things they looked at seem to be % of selections who made the majors, Average WAR and median WAR.
General conclusions are if you're a college catcher drafted in the top 5 you have the highest chance of making the majors (of the four profiles), teams generally pick well in the Top 5 anyway with very few who didn't make the majors in some capacity, and HS SSs have the highest WAR ceilings among the four profiles but also the lowest % chance of making the majors.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 18, 2021 13:03:41 GMT -5
The total WAR number is kind of tricky because of outliers (A-Rod). When they use median WAR instead, college OFs are best, followed by college catchers, college pitchers, and HS short stops.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2021 13:04:58 GMT -5
The total WAR number is kind of tricky because of outliers (A-Rod). When they use median WAR instead, college OFs are best, followed by college catchers, college pitchers, and HS short stops. With the takeaway being that HS shortstops are higher ceiling probably, but higher risk.
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Post by evanstonredsox on May 18, 2021 13:13:24 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2021 13:25:59 GMT -5
LOL at 4 above-average pitches, command, and control. I'm pretty sure he just described the best pitcher in baseball.
Also I'm pretty sure 65 command and 55 control doesn't even make sense.
Ralph gonna Ralph.
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Post by chr31ter on May 18, 2021 13:44:57 GMT -5
Every now and then, I read something on The Athletic that's been written by Jim Bowden, and I'm reminded why he's no longer a General Manager.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,757
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Post by mobaz on May 18, 2021 14:16:15 GMT -5
Every now and then, I read something on The Athletic that's been written by Jim Bowden, and I'm reminded why he's no longer a General Manager. I only read him by accident, and typically realize it's him when I determine what I'm reading is nonsense.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 14:58:09 GMT -5
The article is specifically looking at profiles that are currently represented by the 2021 Top 10 draft rankings (so College Pitchers, College Catchers, College OFers and HS SS's) and seeing how those four profiles have done when selected in the Top 5 picks throughout the draft history. The three main things they looked at seem to be % of selections who made the majors, Average WAR and median WAR. General conclusions are if you're a college catcher drafted in the top 5 you have the highest chance of making the majors (of the four profiles), teams generally pick well in the Top 5 anyway with very few who didn't make the majors in some capacity, and HS SSs have the highest WAR ceilings among the four profiles but also the lowest % chance of making the majors. Interesting about college catcher. And hopefully we want more than “make the majors”. I’ll go for the high impact all day every day this high ( within reason ). No draftee is for sure but it seems without 4 sure things the drafted player who can’t throw strikes at 91 or the shortstop who has trouble making contact, or the 1 pitch pitcher, or player who has high strike out risk while only being a first baseman would want to be avoided.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 15:02:42 GMT -5
I’ll be anxious when jj cooper, Ben balder, jim callis, Jonathan Mayo, Eric longenhagen, or kiley mcdaniels has some talk that they are hearing. Usually they are pretty accurate with what they are hearing from those within the game
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Post by dyoungteach on May 18, 2021 15:03:57 GMT -5
Every now and then, I read something on The Athletic that's been written by Jim Bowden, and I'm reminded why he's no longer a General Manager. You mean everything he writes or says? But again. Shoot he gets paid for this. We don’t so good for him
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