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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 24, 2021 12:03:18 GMT -5
Thank you for your wisdom sir.
If the draft fell like that there wouldn't be much complaining.
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Post by Addam603 on May 24, 2021 12:08:59 GMT -5
More of a general question than related to a specific player, but how is the loss of Lowell going to affect the placement of drafted players? Normally the more advanced college players would head to Lowell and some college guys would go to the GCL with all of the high school players. Without Lowell are the college guys going to jump right to Salem in High-A? Or are they going to just throw them into the GCL? With the draft being late this year, I don't think it matters all that much because there won't be much time for the draftees to get into the system really. It'll still be interesting to see. If college guys end up going to Fort Meyers, I'd expect there to be a bunch of inflated stats.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 24, 2021 12:21:07 GMT -5
Thank you for your wisdom sir. If the draft fell like that there wouldn't be much complaining. Yw. Wasn’t much wisdom in that post. More statement to some. I believe this draft will be talked about for years no matter the outcome.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 24, 2021 12:22:09 GMT -5
Man I knew that that last series win in Atlanta will bite us in the ass come July 11th
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Post by Guidas on May 24, 2021 12:26:40 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell.
I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 24, 2021 12:32:52 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. Remember to lump blaze Jordan in with Yorke. The $$$ saved on yorke helped them sign Jordan. $3.35 vs 2.7. ( roughly $1 million below slot and $650k below crow Armstrong
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Post by incandenza on May 24, 2021 12:39:51 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. I'm trying to think of what "hubris" means in this context... It seems like the alternative would have been to say "Well we think Yorke is the best player available*, but the media's mock drafts have him much lower, so we should defer to those." That's not really the decision process I'd want to see!
Of course, maybe it will turn out to have been a bad pick; time will tell, as you say.
*Or, best underslot option to help them take Blaze Jordan later, as dyoungteach says.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2021 13:08:52 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. I'm trying to think of what "hubris" means in this context... It seems like the alternative would have been to say "Well we think Yorke is the best player available*, but the media's mock drafts have him much lower, so we should defer to those." That's not really the decision process I'd want to see! Of course, maybe it will turn out to have been a bad pick; time will tell, as you say. *Or, best underslot option to help them take Blaze Jordan later, as dyoungteach says.
This is precisely right. Also factor in that they didn't have a second-round pick if they thought he would fall to them there, and they did know that Yorke wasn't going to fall to them in the third. As others here have speculated, if MLB allowed draft picks to be traded, I think they trade back knowing he might fall into the second in order to still get him and get another pick. But again, if they had him as the best player available there, is it "hubris" to take him? As Mike Rikard said on our podcast, after the first half of the first round or so, teams' draft boards start to diverge pretty wildly from what's out there publicly. I think it's just whether their evaluation of the player is correct or not. I mean, Yorke wasn't even the weirdest pick in the draft last year - Texas took Evan Carter at 50 and nobody even knew who the hell he was. Yorke, meanwhile, was regarded by some as the best HS hitter on the west coast. Tim Corbin talked him up on the draft broadcast. The idea that they went way off the board to get Yorke is way overblown. And by the way, PCA is probably done for the season after tearing his labrum. I did hear from one scout who thought he looked a lot better before the injury than he did pre-draft, for whatever that's worth.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 24, 2021 14:00:24 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. Well PCA is already having major shoulder surgery so maybe that’ll make you feel a little bit better
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 24, 2021 14:01:37 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. How do you feel about Pete Crow Armstrong's torn labrum and shoulder surgery ? "The Mets have yet to announce a formal timeline on his recovery, but a surgery of this nature surely won’t be something from which he can return in just a few months’ time." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/05/mets-prospect-pete-crow-armstrong-to-undergo-shoulder-surgery.html
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Post by julyanmorley on May 24, 2021 14:21:06 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. I'm trying to think of what "hubris" means in this context... It seems like the alternative would have been to say "Well we think Yorke is the best player available*, but the media's mock drafts have him much lower, so we should defer to those." That's not really the decision process I'd want to see!
Of course, maybe it will turn out to have been a bad pick; time will tell, as you say.
*Or, best underslot option to help them take Blaze Jordan later, as dyoungteach says.
Would be interesting to see someone do a study of how well against consensus picks do.
I saw PFF do one for football that suggested that off the board picks have a lousy track record. Then again, I didn't read too closely and they were trying to sell their draft content.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 24, 2021 15:21:06 GMT -5
More of a general question than related to a specific player, but how is the loss of Lowell going to affect the placement of drafted players? Normally the more advanced college players would head to Lowell and some college guys would go to the GCL with all of the high school players. Without Lowell are the college guys going to jump right to Salem in High-A? Or are they going to just throw them into the GCL? With the draft being late this year, I don't think it matters all that much because there won't be much time for the draftees to get into the system really. It'll still be interesting to see. If college guys end up going to Fort Meyers, I'd expect there to be a bunch of inflated stats. I'd expect most go to the GCL. It's an interesting question though, especially if the Red Sox only field one GCL team. Unless there are cuts, the Red Sox have a pretty full GCL squad right now. I'm not sure how the Red Sox will get all 20 draft picks on rosters. That being said, with the later draft there will certainly be some draftees that don't even get in game action. For example, I doubt the Red Sox would get Kumar Rocker much game action given the innings he's pitched.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 24, 2021 15:30:49 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who would rather have House than Davis or Leiter? If so could they explain the rationale?
I’m a casual fan trying to follow best I can but it seems to me that we will rarely have opportunities like this in the future to take a premium college C or Vanderbilt SP.
Perhaps the Red Sox scouting loves him or something but if they are on a similar tier, the HS bat doesn’t make as much sense for us.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 24, 2021 15:36:50 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who would rather have House than Davis or Leiter? If so could they explain the rationale? I’m a casual fan trying to follow best I can but it seems to me that we will rarely have opportunities like this in the future to take a premium college C or Vanderbilt SP. Perhaps the Red Sox scouting loves him or something but if they are on a similar tier, the HS bat doesn’t make as much sense for us. For House over Davis/Leiter, you're making the argument that House has an elite bat with a chance to stick at SS. Seems like he could have a chance to be the most impact bat (huge power, elite bat speed) in the class. There's obviously more risk (competition, can he stick at SS long term?), but you'd obviously be chasing the upside. I believe Kevin Goldstein threw out a Will Middlebrooks comp on House at some point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2021 15:42:07 GMT -5
The problem is that the publications are caught between two things: ranking the players and reporting what teams are doing. There's also the fact that they don't have the resources or access to information that teams have, and rely in large part on what teams tell them. Like Ben Badler is all over Joshua Baez in this year's draft and he's seeing him in person, but like, the BA staff isn't going to see every single player in their top 500 in person. So they rely on outside sources. In some ways that can be better in that they can cast a wide net, but in other ways they are relying on what they're being told, and scouts definitely don't tell them everything.
If you're the Red Sox, and you think that Yorke is flying under the radar with only a few teams really in on him, you'd be incentivized not to share that you're thinking of taking him in the first round, right? However, in a normal year, when a number of scouts have been out to see him during a complete high school season to see his shoulder is healthy and that, in theory, he's raking, then word probably does get out and he slides up the consensus boards. The fact that it was a really weird year is a big part of the Yorke pick and narrative that needs to be accounted for, in that it made the usual information disparities even bigger.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2021 15:44:17 GMT -5
More of a general question than related to a specific player, but how is the loss of Lowell going to affect the placement of drafted players? Normally the more advanced college players would head to Lowell and some college guys would go to the GCL with all of the high school players. Without Lowell are the college guys going to jump right to Salem in High-A? Or are they going to just throw them into the GCL? With the draft being late this year, I don't think it matters all that much because there won't be much time for the draftees to get into the system really. It'll still be interesting to see. If college guys end up going to Fort Meyers, I'd expect there to be a bunch of inflated stats. I'd expect most go to the GCL. It's an interesting question though, especially if the Red Sox only field one GCL team. Unless there are cuts, the Red Sox have a pretty full GCL squad right now. I'm not sure how the Red Sox will get all 20 draft picks on rosters. That being said, with the later draft there will certainly be some draftees that don't even get in game action. For example, I doubt the Red Sox would get Kumar Rocker much game action given the innings he's pitched. I think the first rounder and probably second rounder go to Salem no matter what (although maybe a House might go to the GCL?). After that, early college guys could go to Salem, but I do think most guys will be in the GCL. I think last year taught us that there's some value to working with coaches but not necessarily in games every single day. I think they're going to have two teams' worth of players in Fort Myers, but not necessarily all of them will be on the GCL roster.
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Post by Guidas on May 24, 2021 16:04:02 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. I'm trying to think of what "hubris" means in this context... It seems like the alternative would have been to say "Well we think Yorke is the best player available*, but the media's mock drafts have him much lower, so we should defer to those." That's not really the decision process I'd want to see! Of course, maybe it will turn out to have been a bad pick; time will tell, as you say. *Or, best underslot option to help them take Blaze Jordan later, as dyoungteach says.
It's like Pete Carroll in the SB calling a pass on a second and one less than a minute on the clock and Beast Mode in the backfield. Trying too hard to be the smartest guy in the room.
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Post by Guidas on May 24, 2021 16:05:10 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. How do you feel about Pete Crow Armstrong's torn labrum and shoulder surgery ? "The Mets have yet to announce a formal timeline on his recovery, but a surgery of this nature surely won’t be something from which he can return in just a few months’ time." www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/05/mets-prospect-pete-crow-armstrong-to-undergo-shoulder-surgery.htmlI feel that injuries can happen to anyone in any sport and that they are often situational. That is, whose to say he would've torn it for Salem if he was playing there?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 24, 2021 16:14:40 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who would rather have House than Davis or Leiter? If so could they explain the rationale? I’m a casual fan trying to follow best I can but it seems to me that we will rarely have opportunities like this in the future to take a premium college C or Vanderbilt SP. Perhaps the Red Sox scouting loves him or something but if they are on a similar tier, the HS bat doesn’t make as much sense for us. For House over Davis/Leiter, you're making the argument that House has an elite bat with a chance to stick at SS. Seems like he could have a chance to be the most impact bat (huge power, elite bat speed) in the class. There's obviously more risk (competition, can he stick at SS long term?), but you'd obviously be chasing the upside. I believe Kevin Goldstein threw out a Will Middlebrooks comp on House at some point. Don’t all three of them have pretty similar upside? The argument for House is that you think he has a better chance of reaching that ceiling? That’s with the fact he is a high schooler?
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 24, 2021 16:15:21 GMT -5
New BA mock: 1. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit HS - mostly in on HS shortstops at this point 2. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS - Lawlar's floor, Lawlar and Mayer aren't getting out of the top three 3. Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS - more in on hitters than pitchers 4. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 5. Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS 7. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Sal Frelick, OF Boston College 9. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 10. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/I think this would be a great outcome for the RS. We'd have our choice of Leiter, Davis and Rocker. Better yet, we'd have CB making the decision. Sign me up. I'll jump off the couch in elation if House goes in the first three. It pushes other more desirable guys down.
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Post by Guidas on May 24, 2021 16:19:28 GMT -5
I’m all in for Davis but if the pick is Leiter that works. Still (semi) traumatized by Yorke (as I watch the guy I was high on in that slot, Pete Crow Armstrong excel for the Mets at essentially the same level). I still think the Yorke move was hubris on how smart we really are(!), but time will tell. I’d prefer no prep arms at this pick. History has too many of them blowing up. Remember to lump blaze Jordan in with Yorke. The $$$ saved on yorke helped them sign Jordan. $3.35 vs 2.7. ( roughly $1 million below slot and $650k below crow Armstrong After reading the scouting reports on Jordan, I think he was a showcase phenom and I was - and am - unconvinced. Until he proves otherwise he's the next Bo Gentry as far as I could tell. If they wanted a pure basher they should've selected Sabato in the first round and paid him under slot and use the savings to go get a lottery ticket not named Blaze Jordan. I hope they prove me wrong on all counts.
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Post by incandenza on May 24, 2021 16:24:16 GMT -5
I'm trying to think of what "hubris" means in this context... It seems like the alternative would have been to say "Well we think Yorke is the best player available*, but the media's mock drafts have him much lower, so we should defer to those." That's not really the decision process I'd want to see! Of course, maybe it will turn out to have been a bad pick; time will tell, as you say. *Or, best underslot option to help them take Blaze Jordan later, as dyoungteach says.
It's like Pete Carroll in the SB calling a pass on a second and one less than a minute on the clock and Beast Mode in the backfield. Trying too hard to be the smartest guy in the room. Well, I always thought that was a good play call on Carroll's part...
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 24, 2021 16:28:23 GMT -5
For House over Davis/Leiter, you're making the argument that House has an elite bat with a chance to stick at SS. Seems like he could have a chance to be the most impact bat (huge power, elite bat speed) in the class. There's obviously more risk (competition, can he stick at SS long term?), but you'd obviously be chasing the upside. I believe Kevin Goldstein threw out a Will Middlebrooks comp on House at some point. Don’t all three of them have pretty similar upside? The argument for House is that you think he has a better chance of reaching that ceiling? That’s with the fact he is a high schooler? No, the argument (and I'm not arguing it to be clear) would be that House has a higher ceiling than Davis or Leiter.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 24, 2021 16:35:11 GMT -5
Don’t all three of them have pretty similar upside? The argument for House is that you think he has a better chance of reaching that ceiling? That’s with the fact he is a high schooler? No, the argument (and I'm not arguing it to be clear) would be that House has a higher ceiling than Davis or Leiter. Ok thanks for the clarification and all the great work you’ve done on this. The fan in me is hoping for Leiter since we haven’t had a pitcher like that in the system in a long time. I saw Papelbon and Lester throw a combined no hitter for the Sea Dogs back in the day. That was really fun.
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Post by jl1947 on May 24, 2021 16:59:14 GMT -5
Don’t all three of them have pretty similar upside? The argument for House is that you think he has a better chance of reaching that ceiling? That’s with the fact he is a high schooler? No, the argument (and I'm not arguing it to be clear) would be that House has a higher ceiling than Davis or Leiter. I'm in this camp. At the beginning of last Summer, House was thought to be the guy (HS, definitely, but not necessarily HS limited) with the most legitimate super star potential. He had an uneven Summer circuit, but picked it up in the Fall and returned to his expected level this Spring. Not so far fetched that he is a top-three, perhaps event top-two by the time the draft comes around. Most would have believed, then, that the only guy with the chance to go ahead of him would have been Rocker, if Rocker had continued his end of 2019 trajectory, in which case he would have been the clear #1. Folks, the board hasn't quite yet solidified and won't until draft day as far as I can tell from the different prognostications. The Pirates and the Rangers, I would guess, are the keys to this draft if they are fixated on signing bonus demand (the Pirates) or positional preference/probability to stay (shortstop) or geographical appeal (the Rangers).
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