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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by dyoungteach on May 24, 2021 17:20:53 GMT -5
Remember to lump blaze Jordan in with Yorke. The $$$ saved on yorke helped them sign Jordan. $3.35 vs 2.7. ( roughly $1 million below slot and $650k below crow Armstrong After reading the scouting reports on Jordan, I think he was a showcase phenom and I was - and am - unconvinced. Until he proves otherwise he's the next Bo Gentry as far as I could tell. If they wanted a pure basher they should've selected Sabato in the first round and paid him under slot and use the savings to go get a lottery ticket not named Blaze Jordan. I hope they prove me wrong on all counts. I tend to agreee. Might be for nothing. But as a fan I like their mentality on that one. Until crow Armstrong turns into mike trout. Then well .... ( all said tongue in cheek laughing). I agree Jordan might end up being a wasted pick but nobody can design his elite tool. Yet
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Post by dyoungteach on May 24, 2021 17:37:32 GMT -5
Is there anyone here who would rather have House than Davis or Leiter? If so could they explain the rationale? I’m a casual fan trying to follow best I can but it seems to me that we will rarely have opportunities like this in the future to take a premium college C or Vanderbilt SP. Perhaps the Red Sox scouting loves him or something but if they are on a similar tier, the HS bat doesn’t make as much sense for us. Personally yes. All the way. But I haven’t seen any of them either. So who’s to say. House was seen as THE elite talent early last year. Then he had some downtime. He’s big bodied. He mashes for power and I’ve read k. Bryant comparisons. I’ve seen future 3b or of and even some mentions he might stay at shortstop. ( big shortstops are rare). Something I really like is that he struggled between being hot and now hot again. He went through an adjustment and I really like that. Because in mlb the best players learn to make adjustments to be the best. For me catchers can be found like wong or Vasquez or Hernandez cheaper. And the pitcher is the one Ild like but we all know how I feel about those On flip side you have college vs high school. And there is a major argument that college is better than high school
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Post by ramireja on May 24, 2021 17:40:16 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 24, 2021 18:12:04 GMT -5
I just don't see the sox passing on either Rocker or Leiter if they are there at #4. The only thing the Red Sox are missing are a top 100 pitching prospect and those don't grow on trees. In fact, the Sox haven't drafted a pitcher in the first three rounds since 2017.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2021 18:26:47 GMT -5
Re the new BA mock, I'll be shocked if they take Leiter (or Rocker) over Davis. Not just because I think Davis (in this mock) would be the top guy on their board that that point, and easily so, but because there's an interesting argument that even if the draft room were split 55 / 45 for Leiter over Davis for BPA (based on projected mean value), you go with Davis.
I've written (in my head) this whole argument for why there's actually a set of circumstances where you don't take the BPA, if it's a close call. (Presumably, this would be after playing cards with a man called Doc and eating at a place called Mom's. And if you recognize that, you know what happens that evening.)
Since I already used up my forum self-quota today on Franchy, maybe that'll be tomorrow.
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Post by fenwaymabe on May 24, 2021 18:29:37 GMT -5
I tend to agree. I think those two are clearly the top college arms available. With that being said, all pitching prospects come with inherent injury risk, but I'd rather have a college arm over a high school arm any day.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 24, 2021 18:29:56 GMT -5
I just don't see the sox passing on either Rocker or Leiter if they are there at #4. The only thing the Red Sox are missing are a top 100 pitching prospect and those don't grow on trees. In fact, the Sox haven't drafted a pitcher in the first three rounds since 2017. I bet that last statement changes!! And because I’ve been demanded not to comment I’ll leave it there. I’m very sure that last statement will hold true not just this draft but many others so long as bloom is gm.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 24, 2021 18:53:58 GMT -5
If Davis is off the board though, as are Mayer and Lawlar, who do you think they take between House and the Vanderbilt arms?
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 24, 2021 21:23:38 GMT -5
If Davis is off the board though, as are Mayer and Lawlar, who do you think they take between House and the Vanderbilt arms? I seriously wonder what Rocker and Leiter could possibly do to be more impressive. Rocker has a 2.46 ERA in the SEC with 129ks in 88.0 IP and a .160 OBA Leiter has a 2.12 ERA in the SEC with 127ks in 76.1 IP and a .128 OBA
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 24, 2021 21:56:31 GMT -5
I just don't see the sox passing on either Rocker or Leiter if they are there at #4. The only thing the Red Sox are missing are a top 100 pitching prospect and those don't grow on trees. In fact, the Sox haven't drafted a pitcher in the first three rounds since 2017. Just give Bello a half season more of this and you don’t have to worry about that
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 24, 2021 22:13:11 GMT -5
Remember to lump blaze Jordan in with Yorke. The $$$ saved on yorke helped them sign Jordan. $3.35 vs 2.7. ( roughly $1 million below slot and $650k below crow Armstrong After reading the scouting reports on Jordan, I think he was a showcase phenom and I was - and am - unconvinced. Until he proves otherwise he's the next Bo Gentry as far as I could tell. If they wanted a pure basher they should've selected Sabato in the first round and paid him under slot and use the savings to go get a lottery ticket not named Blaze Jordan. I hope they prove me wrong on all counts. Not trying to stir the pot too much, but do you really not see the extreme irony here? You're accusing Bloom and the FO of hubris for drafting a guy they did extensive research on in a draft that is, by all accounts, a crap shoot at any point, let alone past the first 10 or so picks. But on the flip side you "read the reports" on Jordan and you think that justifies being unconvinced on him as a prospect?
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Post by voiceofreason on May 25, 2021 7:03:04 GMT -5
If Davis is off the board though, as are Mayer and Lawlar, who do you think they take between House and the Vanderbilt arms? I seriously wonder what Rocker and Leiter could possibly do to be more impressive. Rocker has a 2.46 ERA in the SEC with 129ks in 88.0 IP and a .160 OBA Leiter has a 2.12 ERA in the SEC with 127ks in 76.1 IP and a .128 OBA This is why I will be psyched for whomever they pick. It will be exciting to see a top 5 pick added to the system and watch how they progress regardless of who it is as they don't get these picks ever, I hope the pick is considered a great one 5 years down the road. It could be an ace, a top ss or the next Tek behind the plate as long as it isn't a Ball. The covid season being historically bad for the Sox could be a boon for the future when considering all the silver linings that could go with it. Rule 5 picks and draft picks from one down year could lead to a much better future and that should be fun to follow. I will be entertained!!
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 25, 2021 7:33:26 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 7:34:45 GMT -5
I just don't see the sox passing on either Rocker or Leiter if they are there at #4. The only thing the Red Sox are missing are a top 100 pitching prospect and those don't grow on trees. In fact, the Sox haven't drafted a pitcher in the first three rounds since 2017. Well, with that logic, they don't have a catcher either... Also they took Zeferjahn in the third in 2019 and Feltman in the third in 2018. It's that they haven't used a day one pick on a pitcher since Houck, which is only a sample size of 5 picks though. That said, there certainly could be something to how they line up their board.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 25, 2021 7:52:24 GMT -5
I just don't see the sox passing on either Rocker or Leiter if they are there at #4. The only thing the Red Sox are missing are a top 100 pitching prospect and those don't grow on trees. In fact, the Sox haven't drafted a pitcher in the first three rounds since 2017. Well, with that logic, they don't have a catcher either... Also they took Zeferjahn in the third in 2019 and Feltman in the third in 2018. It's that they haven't used a day one pick on a pitcher since Houck, which is only a sample size of 5 picks though. That said, there certainly could be something to how they line up their board. Wing and Hernandez aren’t just nothings at catcher. Both have upside of a starting catcher with ability to really impact the baseball. You don’t have to be a top pick to be a top prospect especially at catcher! There is very little evidence that any catcher in this years draft would be much more than what Hernandez is and was
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Post by The Duck on May 25, 2021 9:12:42 GMT -5
For me catchers can be found like wong or Vasquez or Hernandez cheaper.
This is absolutely true if a Wong is your goal. You can also get a shortstop like Jonathon Arauz cheaper. In my in-depth scouting including two articles and an video, Davis looks like a rare talent at a position where well rounded skills are rare, even more so than at short. I'm torn between Davis and Leiter and will be thrilled with either one.
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sportshubby
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Post by sportshubby on May 25, 2021 9:29:28 GMT -5
Finally after years of lurking and reading comments, decided to jump in and ask a question. Hopefully I haven't missed this particular topic somewhere in the previous 98 pages...
In your opinion, how much do you consider the organization's ability to develop players in your scouting and drafting decisions? A team that has had a rough time developing starting pitchers, should they focus on drafting high-upside hitters that could be traded for developed pitchers, or do they keep drafting/signing IFA pitchers and hoping for the best?
Obviously, you have to be able to complete your minor league rosters, so you can't ignore positions entirely. And in the Sox case now, we will have to see how Bloom continues to make changes to potentially bring better development in those areas that have been historically lacking. With this draft in mind, would that sway you in any way in terms of drafting a Leiter/Rocker v. one of the shortstop or catcher options that are rising on the board? Or is a 1st rounder this high 'exempt' from those concerns, but it impacts more in the middle rounds?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 10:58:54 GMT -5
Well, with that logic, they don't have a catcher either... Also they took Zeferjahn in the third in 2019 and Feltman in the third in 2018. It's that they haven't used a day one pick on a pitcher since Houck, which is only a sample size of 5 picks though. That said, there certainly could be something to how they line up their board. Wing and Hernandez aren’t just nothings at catcher. Both have upside of a starting catcher with ability to really impact the baseball. You don’t have to be a top pick to be a top prospect especially at catcher! There is very little evidence that any catcher in this years draft would be much more than what Hernandez is and was But they have pitchers who are at least just as good as Wong and Hernandez though, right? The post I was responding to said "all they're missing" is a pitcher. I'll personally take a top 100 guy at any position, myself, and would prefer the best one available, but I was just saying I don't think there's a hole at pitcher any larger than a hole at any other position.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 25, 2021 11:29:43 GMT -5
You don’t draft for need in baseball. BPA all the way. It’s too much of a crap shoot to project 4 years out
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 25, 2021 11:49:38 GMT -5
Kevin Goldstein wrote a piece today laying out the odds for each of the top players to be drafted 1-1: Marcelo Mayer: 3-1 Jordan Lawlar: 3-1 Henry Davis: 5-1 Jack Leiter: 10-1 Kumar Rocker: 25-1 Brady House: 75-1 Also mentions Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser as possibilities to be selected in the top 5 for underslot deals. blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-draft-notebook-setting-the-odds-for-1-1/
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Post by jmanny24 on May 25, 2021 11:50:05 GMT -5
I just turned it on but evidently Davis has 2 HRs against Clemson in the ACC Tournament. Game is in the bottom of the 5th.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 25, 2021 12:26:58 GMT -5
Wing and Hernandez aren’t just nothings at catcher. Both have upside of a starting catcher with ability to really impact the baseball. You don’t have to be a top pick to be a top prospect especially at catcher! There is very little evidence that any catcher in this years draft would be much more than what Hernandez is and was But they have pitchers who are at least just as good as Wong and Hernandez though, right? The post I was responding to said "all they're missing" is a pitcher. I'll personally take a top 100 guy at any position, myself, and would prefer the best one available, but I was just saying I don't think there's a hole at pitcher any larger than a hole at any other position. Honestly why I would avoid both positions at that pick. But I also feel Wong and Hernandez both can/could be major league starting catchers who develop into 5-7 year starters. ( I see Vasquez as a really solid piece to a contending team ). That’s all I meant and both were found cheaper than a high draft pick.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 25, 2021 13:03:28 GMT -5
I just turned it on but evidently Davis has 2 HRs against Clemson in the ACC Tournament. Game is in the bottom of the 5th. That ball was smocked!
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Post by ramireja on May 25, 2021 13:07:11 GMT -5
I put together a table of data from draft years of college pitchers selected in the top 10 dating back to 2015. I excluded last year's draft class because their draft years were abbreviated and I was hoping for a minimum sample size of 50 innings (for which Bachman barely reaches). A couple of other things to note: Brendan McKay also was a full-time hitter during his draft year, Cal Quantrill had TJ surgery and therefore doesn't have data to contribute, and Tyler Jay pitched almost exclusively in relief (typically 2-inning stints). Name | Team | Year | Pick | Drafted by | Innings | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | Hits/9 | HR/9 | Jack Leiter | Vanderbilt | 2021 | ? | ? | 76.1 | 2.12 | 0.878 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | Kumar Rocker | Vanderbilt | 2021 | ? | ? | 88.0 | 2.45 | 0.875 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 0.7 | Sam Bachman | Miami (Ohio) | 2021 | ? | ? | 53.0 | 2.04 | 0.811 | 14.3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 0.2 | Gunnar Hoglund | Ole Miss | 2021 | ? | ? | 62.2 | 2.87 | 0.910 | 13.8 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 1.0 | Nick Lodolo | TCU | 2019 | 7 | CIN | 103.0 | 2.36 | 0.981 | 11.4 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 0.7 | Casey Mize | Auburn | 2018 | 1 | DET | 114.2 | 3.30 | 0.872 | 12.2 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 0.8 | Brendan McKay | Louisville | 2017 | 4 | TAM | 109.0 | 2.56 | 1.028 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 0.4 | Kyle Wright | Vanderbilt | 2017 | 5 | ATL | 103.1 | 3.40 | 1.094 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 0.3 | A.J. Puk | Florida | 2016 | 6 | OAK | 73.2 | 3.05 | 1.195 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 0.7 | Cal Quantrill | Stanford | 2016 | 8 | SDP | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Dillon Tate | UC-Santa Barbara | 2015 | 4 | TEX | 103.1 | 2.26 | 0.910 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | Tyler Jay | Illinois | 2015 | 6 | MIN | 66.2* | 1.08 | 0.705 | 10.3 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 0.3 | Carson Fulmer | Vanderbilt | 2015 | 8 | CHW | 127.2 | 1.83 | 1.026 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
Zooming in on Jack Leiter...he's really interesting. First off, he's only pitched ~15 collegiate innings prior to this draft year which is a stark difference from the rest of the pitchers on this list. He has the highest K/9 and lowest Hits/9 which is great, but also has the highest HR/9 and ranks near the bottom in BB/9. Overall though, I'm encouraged by how he compares. One could dismiss his HR/9 as fluky but I'm not entirely sure it is....keep in mind he is a flyball pitcher as opposed to Bachman who combines elite K-rates with groundball tendencies and elite batted ball data (albeit all his data come against inferior competition). Still though, I'd rank Leiter as my #1 SP in this class, and personally have him ranked behind only Mayer and Davis overall. Note: I realize Gunnar Hoglund has no chance of landing in the top 10 of this class because of TJ, but included him anyways since he was tracking as a top 10 guy before the injury, and who knows, he could be available at #40.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 25, 2021 13:15:07 GMT -5
Some more context on those numbers:
2021 SEC: 10.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9 2017 SEC: 8.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 2015 SEC: 8.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
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