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2021 MLB Draft
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Post by James Dunne on May 25, 2021 13:54:06 GMT -5
I just turned it on but evidently Davis has 2 HRs against Clemson in the ACC Tournament. Game is in the bottom of the 5th. That ball was smocked! Gotta appreciate the Mike Napoli-esque approach to buttoning his jersey.
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Post by Guidas on May 25, 2021 14:05:22 GMT -5
After reading the scouting reports on Jordan, I think he was a showcase phenom and I was - and am - unconvinced. Until he proves otherwise he's the next Bo Gentry as far as I could tell. If they wanted a pure basher they should've selected Sabato in the first round and paid him under slot and use the savings to go get a lottery ticket not named Blaze Jordan. I hope they prove me wrong on all counts. Not trying to stir the pot too much, but do you really not see the extreme irony here? You're accusing Bloom and the FO of hubris for drafting a guy they did extensive research on in a draft that is, by all accounts, a crap shoot at any point, let alone past the first 10 or so picks. But on the flip side you "read the reports" on Jordan and you think that justifies being unconvinced on him as a prospect? Well, their "extensive research" led to picking a guy virtually all the other experts thought would go in the 3rd round at best. As for Jordan, the data say that the best proof point for guys whose carrying tool is power - and in Jordan's case, perhaps only tool that's more than a 40 in grade - is at least two years in a high level D-1 program. Jordan was headed to one and virtually every other team thought let him go. But bottom line: My hubris, if it exists, is that of a guy on a chat board. Bloom's hubris (if I am vindicated in my opinion) is coming from a high paid GM. Time will tell, but if I'm proved right in 3-4 years, I do hope John Henry gives me a call after he cans Bloom. Side note: I'm still not sure what Bloom's goal is. Did Henry instruct him to build Tampa? Because if so and that works and this will be a team built on the cheap to get results, then Fenway Sports Group should reduce ticket and merch prices by 60%. If (as I thought) the goal here is to build an AL version of The Dodgers - a team that combines excellent drafting at the low positions with outstanding international signs and elite player development and combine it with big ticket free agents - then we should see a dramatic change this winter on free agent moves now that Bloom has running room on salaries.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 25, 2021 14:21:03 GMT -5
Gotta appreciate the Mike Napoli-esque approach to buttoning his jersey. 80 intangibles/makeup
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Post by manfred on May 25, 2021 14:31:12 GMT -5
Gotta appreciate the Mike Napoli-esque approach to buttoning his jersey. 80 intangibles/makeup I am a total convert. Just based on that first picture. Draft settled.
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Post by Guidas on May 25, 2021 15:35:57 GMT -5
Gotta appreciate the Mike Napoli-esque approach to buttoning his jersey. 80 intangibles/makeup Beast mode. Want him even more now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 16:01:27 GMT -5
But they have pitchers who are at least just as good as Wong and Hernandez though, right? The post I was responding to said "all they're missing" is a pitcher. I'll personally take a top 100 guy at any position, myself, and would prefer the best one available, but I was just saying I don't think there's a hole at pitcher any larger than a hole at any other position. Honestly why I would avoid both positions at that pick. But I also feel Wong and Hernandez both can/could be major league starting catchers who develop into 5-7 year starters. ( I see Vasquez as a really solid piece to a contending team ). That’s all I meant and both were found cheaper than a high draft pick. Well, you could also argue you shouldn't draft an outfielder because Mookie Betts was a fifth-rounder. MLB regulars are sometimes later picks. Christian Vazquez was a ninth-rounder. Buster Posey was a first-rounder. Mike Piazza was a 50th rounder. They come in all shapes and sizes. I'd be interested to see if there's any actual data supporting that a position can be more or less easily found in later rounds.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 16:10:45 GMT -5
Not trying to stir the pot too much, but do you really not see the extreme irony here? You're accusing Bloom and the FO of hubris for drafting a guy they did extensive research on in a draft that is, by all accounts, a crap shoot at any point, let alone past the first 10 or so picks. But on the flip side you "read the reports" on Jordan and you think that justifies being unconvinced on him as a prospect? Well, their "extensive research" led to picking a guy virtually all the other experts thought would go in the 3rd round at best. As for Jordan, the data say that the best proof point for guys whose carrying tool is power - and in Jordan's case, perhaps only tool that's more than a 40 in grade - is at least two years in a high level D-1 program. Jordan was headed to one and virtually every other team thought let him go. But bottom line: My hubris, if it exists, is that of a guy on a chat board. Bloom's hubris (if I am vindicated in my opinion) is coming from a high paid GM. Time will tell, but if I'm proved right in 3-4 years, I do hope John Henry gives me a call after he cans Bloom. Side note: I'm still not sure what Bloom's goal is. Did Henry instruct him to build Tampa? Because if so and that works and this will be a team built on the cheap to get results, then Fenway Sports Group should reduce ticket and merch prices by 60%. If (as I thought) the goal here is to build an AL version of The Dodgers - a team that combines excellent drafting at the low positions with outstanding international signs and elite player development and combine it with big ticket free agents - then we should see a dramatic change this winter on free agent moves now that Bloom has running room on salaries. The problem is "all the other experts." You're assuming we have complete knowledge of what teams last year thought. We do not. Again, Baseball America's scouting report on him said that he was considered by some to have the best hit tool on the west coast and in the Future Projection podcast they have said the same thing I've been saying that it wasn't as surprising a pick as some have made it out to be. Hey, maybe this is turning into a semantics thing, but for me "hubris" on Bloom's part would be if the entire scouting department is telling to him take player A, but dammit, he saw this guy in person and he's making the damn call to take Yorke. That'd (maybe) be hubris. The Red Sox taking the best player on their board who was available at that pick and would not be available at their next pick, when that board is not the same as the boards compiled by publications that rely on major league teams for information to do so is not hubris. Again, it was a weird year. Texas took a guy who NOBODY HAD HEARD OF at 50! He was unranked!!! And by the way, speaking of the predraft rankings, I'd note that now not a single outlet ranks Blaze Jordan, universally ranked MUCH higher before the draft, ahead of Yorke. It's been less than a year.
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Post by rismith on May 25, 2021 16:13:43 GMT -5
Davis doing what he is doing is creating great optionality for us. If 2 months ago or 9 months ago you said we might have our pick of Leiter or Rocker to help stock the system....we would have been thrilled. If one of them goes then we end up with Lawlar or Mayer....
I personally think they surprise us with a Watson or other under slot deal but I hope I am wrong.
No matter what, top 4 seems to have solid value to help further build the system.
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Post by unitspin on May 25, 2021 16:19:06 GMT -5
Honestly why I would avoid both positions at that pick. But I also feel Wong and Hernandez both can/could be major league starting catchers who develop into 5-7 year starters. ( I see Vasquez as a really solid piece to a contending team ). That’s all I meant and both were found cheaper than a high draft pick. Well, you could also argue you shouldn't draft an outfielder because Mookie Betts was a fifth-rounder. MLB regulars are sometimes later picks. Christian Vazquez was a ninth-rounder. Buster Posey was a first-rounder. Mike Piazza was a 50th rounder. They come in all shapes and sizes. I'd be interested to see if there's any actual data supporting that a position can be more or less easily found in later rounds. Piazza also liked sauce with his pizza. That might helped him just a lil.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 25, 2021 16:26:26 GMT -5
Well, you could also argue you shouldn't draft an outfielder because Mookie Betts was a fifth-rounder. MLB regulars are sometimes later picks. Christian Vazquez was a ninth-rounder. Buster Posey was a first-rounder. Mike Piazza was a 50th rounder. They come in all shapes and sizes. I'd be interested to see if there's any actual data supporting that a position can be more or less easily found in later rounds. Piazza also liked sauce with his pizza. That might helped him just a lil. That could be, but by some estimates more than 60% of players (speculation of course) were dipping into that same sauce as well, so who knows. If mostly "everyone" was doing something, including pitchers, perhaps the playing field was pretty even after all.
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Post by James Dunne on May 25, 2021 16:26:32 GMT -5
So, as a counter to the oft-discussed point that the best hitters are at the top of the draft, but you can "find" pitchers. Here are the active leaders in bWAR. Top 15 position pitchers, Top 15 pitchers.
Pitchers -Grienke (6th overall pick) -Verlander (2nd overall) -Kershaw (7th overall) -Scherzer (11th overall) -Sale (13th overall) -Lester (2nd round/57th overall) -de Grom (9th round) -Wainwright (29th overall) -Price (1st overall) -Bumgarner (10th overall) -Kluber (4th round) -Strasburg (1st overall) -Cueto (International Free Agent) -Cole (1st overall) -E. Santana (International Free Agent)
Position players -Pujols (13th round) -Trout (25th overall pick) -Cano (International Free Agent) -Cabrera (International Free Agent) -Votto (2nd round/44th overall) -Longoria (3rd overall) -Betts (5th round) -Goldschmidt (8th round) -McCutchen (11th overall) -Posey (5th overall) -Gardner (3rd round) -Arenado (2nd round/59th overall) -Stanton (2nd round/76th overall) -Donaldson (48th overall) -Machado (3rd overall)
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Post by Guidas on May 25, 2021 16:38:25 GMT -5
Piazza also liked sauce with his pizza. That might helped him just a lil. That could be, but by some estimates more than 60% of players (speculation of course) were dipping into that same sauce as well, so who knows. If mostly "everyone" was doing something, including pitchers, perhaps the playing field was pretty even after all. And remember, the "clean" players were all doing amphetamines since the early 1950s, including every Hall of Famer railing against PEDs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 16:50:41 GMT -5
So, as a counter to the oft-discussed point that the best hitters are at the top of the draft, but you can "find" pitchers. Here are the active leaders in bWAR. Top 15 position pitchers, Top 15 pitchers. Pitchers -Grienke (6th overall pick) -Verlander (2nd overall) -Kershaw (7th overall) -Scherzer (11th overall) -Sale (13th overall) -Lester (2nd round/57th overall) -de Grom (9th round) -Wainwright (29th overall) -Price (1st overall) -Bumgarner (10th overall) -Kluber (4th round) -Strasburg (1st overall) -Cueto (International Free Agent) -Cole (1st overall) -E. Santana (International Free Agent) Position players -Pujols (13th round) -Trout (25th overall pick) -Cano (International Free Agent) -Cabrera (International Free Agent) -Votto (2nd round/44th overall) -Longoria (3rd overall) -Betts (5th round) -Goldschmidt (8th round) -McCutchen (11th overall) -Posey (5th overall) -Gardner (3rd round) -Arenado (2nd round/59th overall) -Stanton (2nd round/76th overall) -Donaldson (48th overall) -Machado (3rd overall) Very interesting. I think the complementary thing to this, though, is the boom/bust rate. What's your acceptable level of risk for a given strata? It's like Collazo's work last week - HS SS's have the highest potential of the four groups he looked at but they also had way more risk. At 4, you're hoping for a guy who winds up on this list, but I'm curious for later rounds what kinds of picks are more likely to become regulars. Do more eventual MLB regular arms (think 3-5 SP/late innings RP) slip to what's now day 2 or more bats (everyday regular, non-star)? Also WTAF is Gardner doing on that list?
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jl1947
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Post by jl1947 on May 25, 2021 16:51:15 GMT -5
Gotta appreciate the Mike Napoli-esque approach to buttoning his jersey.
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jl1947
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Post by jl1947 on May 25, 2021 16:53:06 GMT -5
Asking for a friend... is panache a prospect tool? If so, he is 1-1 right now.
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Post by Addam603 on May 25, 2021 17:38:57 GMT -5
Fast rising high schooler. Went from unranked to 51. Looks like he could be an above slot second day guy if they go that route.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 25, 2021 17:55:51 GMT -5
Knew he was a projectable pitcher from the northeast just from looking at his last name. I would have said Long Island but CT fits too
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 18:14:26 GMT -5
Fast rising high schooler. Went from unranked to 51. Looks like he could be an above slot second day guy if they go that route. Who, last year, would have stayed unranked. Just sayin'...
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 25, 2021 18:25:38 GMT -5
I put together a table of data from draft years of college pitchers selected in the top 10 dating back to 2015. I excluded last year's draft class because their draft years were abbreviated and I was hoping for a minimum sample size of 50 innings (for which Bachman barely reaches). A couple of other things to note: Brendan McKay also was a full-time hitter during his draft year, Cal Quantrill had TJ surgery and therefore doesn't have data to contribute, and Tyler Jay pitched almost exclusively in relief (typically 2-inning stints). Name | Team | Year | Pick | Drafted by | Innings | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | Hits/9 | HR/9 | Jack Leiter | Vanderbilt | 2021 | ? | ? | 76.1 | 2.12 | 0.878 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | Kumar Rocker | Vanderbilt | 2021 | ? | ? | 88.0 | 2.45 | 0.875 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 0.7 | Sam Bachman | Miami (Ohio) | 2021 | ? | ? | 53.0 | 2.04 | 0.811 | 14.3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 0.2 | Gunnar Hoglund | Ole Miss | 2021 | ? | ? | 62.2 | 2.87 | 0.910 | 13.8 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 1.0 | Nick Lodolo | TCU | 2019 | 7 | CIN | 103.0 | 2.36 | 0.981 | 11.4 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 0.7 | Casey Mize | Auburn | 2018 | 1 | DET | 114.2 | 3.30 | 0.872 | 12.2 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 0.8 | Brendan McKay | Louisville | 2017 | 4 | TAM | 109.0 | 2.56 | 1.028 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 0.4 | Kyle Wright | Vanderbilt | 2017 | 5 | ATL | 103.1 | 3.40 | 1.094 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 0.3 | A.J. Puk | Florida | 2016 | 6 | OAK | 73.2 | 3.05 | 1.195 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 0.7 | Cal Quantrill | Stanford | 2016 | 8 | SDP | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | Dillon Tate | UC-Santa Barbara | 2015 | 4 | TEX | 103.1 | 2.26 | 0.910 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | Tyler Jay | Illinois | 2015 | 6 | MIN | 66.2* | 1.08 | 0.705 | 10.3 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 0.3 | Carson Fulmer | Vanderbilt | 2015 | 8 | CHW | 127.2 | 1.83 | 1.026 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
Zooming in on Jack Leiter...he's really interesting. First off, he's only pitched ~15 collegiate innings prior to this draft year which is a stark difference from the rest of the pitchers on this list. He has the highest K/9 and lowest Hits/9 which is great, but also has the highest HR/9 and ranks near the bottom in BB/9. Overall though, I'm encouraged by how he compares. One could dismiss his HR/9 as fluky but I'm not entirely sure it is....keep in mind he is a flyball pitcher as opposed to Bachman who combines elite K-rates with groundball tendencies and elite batted ball data (albeit all his data come against inferior competition). Still though, I'd rank Leiter as my #1 SP in this class, and personally have him ranked behind only Mayer and Davis overall. Note: I realize Gunnar Hoglund has no chance of landing in the top 10 of this class because of TJ, but included him anyways since he was tracking as a top 10 guy before the injury, and who knows, he could be available at #40. Thank you for this. I am no draft expert, but I do routinely check D1baseballscores.com to see the leaders in each category at the end of the year. Noah Song's numbers were the best I've ever seen, but Leiter and Rocker are equally impressive considering they play in the SEC. I just don't know what else these guys can do to win over the "no college pitcher" crowd. Leiter's numbers are the best on that list and he is a legit 1-1 type prospect in any other draft.
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Post by unitspin on May 25, 2021 19:22:04 GMT -5
Piazza also liked sauce with his pizza. That might helped him just a lil. That could be, but by some estimates more than 60% of players (speculation of course) were dipping into that same sauce as well, so who knows. If mostly "everyone" was doing something, including pitchers, perhaps the playing field was pretty even after all. 100% that's why I think punishing Bonds and Roger is laughable. And Bonds is a dbag in my book but he does not deserve to be judge diff then the rest of the era.
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Post by manfred on May 25, 2021 19:26:11 GMT -5
That could be, but by some estimates more than 60% of players (speculation of course) were dipping into that same sauce as well, so who knows. If mostly "everyone" was doing something, including pitchers, perhaps the playing field was pretty even after all. 100% that's why I think punishing Bonds and Roger is laughable. And Bonds is a dbag in my book but he does not deserve to be judge diff then the rest of the era. It isn’t judging by a different standard to say there were guys who failed tests or had evidence presented against them in court who are punished — and guys who were not caught or just rumored who are not. It is the same standard: if you are *caught* juicing, you are punished. But there are few arguments more childish than “but everyone does it!”
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 19:45:42 GMT -5
MLB Draft thread.
Thanks
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 25, 2021 20:07:58 GMT -5
People are asking what Leiter or Rocker could do to satisfy their critics. Well, I’d say that Leiter staying consistent and strong for his first college season, and Rocker stabilizing his velocity rather than having it go up and down would be good. I think they’re both great but there are concerns that go beyond their aggregate stats.
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Post by Addam603 on May 25, 2021 21:20:40 GMT -5
Fast rising high schooler. Went from unranked to 51. Looks like he could be an above slot second day guy if they go that route. Who, last year, would have stayed unranked. Just sayin'... Completely don’t understand the meaning there. That a good thing or a bad thing?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 25, 2021 21:22:51 GMT -5
Who, last year, would have stayed unranked. Just sayin'... Completely don’t understand the meaning there. That a good thing or a bad thing? It's commentary on Yorke. The rough interpretation is basically that Yorke could've had this kind of rise if he had a full season too, but we'll never know since he didn't get that opportunity.
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