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Are the Red Sox trying to win this year?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2020 22:51:19 GMT -5
Well, the Sox now have a 65% chance of making the playoffs, per fangraphs, so, yeah, I think they're gonna go for it. I think that might be slightly lower now. Still 53%. We're only 1 game out of wildcard position!
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2020 23:44:55 GMT -5
I think that might be slightly lower now. Still 53%. We're only 1 game out of wildcard position! Does fangraphs factor in things like the likelihood the Red Sox will go for however long the season lasts with just one functional major league caliber starting pitcher (who is injury prone)? Does it factor in we likely don't or shouldn't see E-Rod this season? I mean, I look at this team, and I think the odds are more likely that they miss the playoffs than make it. I think this team would be fortunate to win 25 games.
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Post by tyler3 on Jul 28, 2020 0:06:57 GMT -5
We all know they are going for kumar rocker, and why not. Between being docked for the shady international deals, their number 1 international prospect dying of a rare testicular cancer, losing 10 spots for passing the spending what ever it is, and losing the second draft pick this year... I mean why not just bomb a bull shit 60 game season where you traded your star to get under the cap, your best pitcher blew out his elbow, your second best pitcher is having heart complications from covid, and your two top lefty bull pen guys miss the first 10 games as well from covid. What is the point of finishing 10th last this year? Just tank get one of the top three draft picks and a comp pick if JDM doesn’t want to stick around. It’s freaking time.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2020 12:55:07 GMT -5
Question for the folks who think they're tanking:
Do you think they were tanking when they entered camp with Sale and Rodriguez in the rotation, and with Darwinzon and Taylor looking like important relievers in front of Workman and Barnes?
------
That said, I think it comes down to this - the org was trying to field a competitive team with the restriction of being under the CBT. They had no room to maneuver if they lost players of that caliber long-term, and they're not going to use prospect capital to replace it.
So if "not trying to win" means that currently, they're not looking to use trades to make significant improvements, I think that's right, although that's not necessarily how I'd put it. I think it's absolutely true they were trying to win while everyone is healthy, but as I said, with constraints.
The original acquisition of guys like Springs, Hall, etc. was, to me, to mix-and-match guys in that fifth spot until something came along (like a Godley situation). I think we can all agree the plan was never Perez 2, Weber 3, then whatever the hell 4 and 5 were.
Put it this way - if a player makes it to them on waivers, they're not going to not claim him because they don't want to win.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 28, 2020 13:09:42 GMT -5
We all know they are going for kumar rocker, and why not. Between being docked for the shady international deals, their number 1 international prospect dying of a rare testicular cancer, losing 10 spots for passing the spending what ever it is, and losing the second draft pick this year... I mean why not just bomb a bull shit 60 game season where you traded your star to get under the cap, your best pitcher blew out his elbow, your second best pitcher is having heart complications from covid, and your two top lefty bull pen guys miss the first 10 games as well from covid. What is the point of finishing 10th last this year? Just tank get one of the top three draft picks and a comp pick if JDM doesn’t want to stick around. It’s freaking time. Well they are not going to "tank". They will be what they are. I hate the concept of tanking anyway and in my view teams should be visited with penalties ...fines, lost picks etc. if they are deemed to be trying to rig the system. The integrity of the game and sport as a whole matter. The Red Sox and Bloom are not cut from that cloth.
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patford
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Post by patford on Jul 28, 2020 18:28:12 GMT -5
Any team that is all in on trying to win this year is being foolish. It appears teams and players are already being very cautious with injuries. I think if MLB makes it through a month without having to shut down we would see a different attitude emerge but even then it's a season which is always going to be in a class of it's own.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2020 19:02:59 GMT -5
We all know they are going for kumar rocker, and why not. Between being docked for the shady international deals, their number 1 international prospect dying of a rare testicular cancer, losing 10 spots for passing the spending what ever it is, and losing the second draft pick this year... I mean why not just bomb a bull shit 60 game season where you traded your star to get under the cap, your best pitcher blew out his elbow, your second best pitcher is having heart complications from covid, and your two top lefty bull pen guys miss the first 10 games as well from covid. What is the point of finishing 10th last this year? Just tank get one of the top three draft picks and a comp pick if JDM doesn’t want to stick around. It’s freaking time. Well they are not going to "tank". They will be what they are. I hate the concept of tanking anyway and in my view teams should be visited with penalties ...fines, lost picks etc. if they are deemed to be trying to rig the system. The integrity of the game and sport as a whole matter. The Red Sox and Bloom are not cut from that cloth. I don't think the players will "tank" unless maybe you are talking about the last few weeks or so. On the other hand I don't see the management selling any part of their future to improve their present. All trades or transactions will be made with future WAR in mind, not 2020.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 28, 2020 19:29:51 GMT -5
Womp womp.
(Wrong thread but it still works)
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 28, 2020 22:01:32 GMT -5
Tank for Kumar!!!
LFG!
Go into FA and sign some arms. Compete for a wild card next year. The Sox need to get back to being that "100 million dollar player development machine"
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2020 23:54:43 GMT -5
Are the Red Sox trying? Very. Hahaha.
The Red Sox aren't tanking. They just plain suck.
Management prioritized getting under the luxury tax versus keeping their best team on the field. They got rid of their best player and arguably their 2nd best starter last year.
They painted themselves into the luxury tax corner so they figured they'd try to win as much as they can with a team they knew wouldn't be as good.
So now with Sale injured and E-Rod dealing with the effects of Covid 19, their rotation is stripped bare, their manager is gone, and the fact of the matter is that their bullpen is only so-so and their offense without Mookie being the guy who makes it go is about so-so. That won't make up for horrendous pitching. Excluding the final 4 roster spots (because every team is in the same situation) there are very few above average players. There are some just below/above (or) average solid players and a respectable starting pitcher, closer, and setup man, but there are a lot of mediocre and replacement level types dotting the remainder of the 26 man roster. And it's not like they have a ton of talent to pull up from the minors. So this season feels kind of inevitable. I just hope they're able to get something out of it like a good position in the draft pick and perhaps a pitcher or two who sticks after the proverbial being thrown against the wall.
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Post by tyler3 on Jul 29, 2020 0:17:30 GMT -5
Chris I think we just arguing semantics at this point. Do I think the Red Sox intended to enter a 162 game season and tank...no. I do think after covid reduced it to 60 games and Sale had tommy John and E-Rod had heart complications, and they would be without there 2 best bull pen lefties for 15% of the season, and they were left with 1 real major league starter with an injury history and a hefty salary, that the Red Sox will give up absolutely nothing to improve this team. I guess the real question is...if they could get anything for JDM, Workman, or Eovaldi, would they do it come trade time?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 29, 2020 6:20:06 GMT -5
Chris I think we just arguing semantics at this point. Do I think the Red Sox intended to enter a 162 game season and tank...no. I do think after covid reduced it to 60 games and Sale had tommy John and E-Rod had heart complications, and they would be without there 2 best bull pen lefties for 15% of the season, and they were left with 1 real major league starter with an injury history and a hefty salary, that the Red Sox will give up absolutely nothing to improve this team. I guess the real question is...if they could get anything for JDM, Workman, or Eovaldi, would they do it come trade time? I would hope that they follow the Yankees model from 2016. There's nothing that doesnt say that JD can't opt out of his contract next year and sign with Boston after he's traded. This team is still in the bottom third with regards to the farm system. JD Martinez is by far the best trade chip this team has. Workman is getting there though.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 29, 2020 8:26:58 GMT -5
Chris I think we just arguing semantics at this point. Do I think the Red Sox intended to enter a 162 game season and tank...no. I do think after covid reduced it to 60 games and Sale had tommy John and E-Rod had heart complications, and they would be without there 2 best bull pen lefties for 15% of the season, and they were left with 1 real major league starter with an injury history and a hefty salary, that the Red Sox will give up absolutely nothing to improve this team. I guess the real question is...if they could get anything for JDM, Workman, or Eovaldi, would they do it come trade time? I would hope that they follow the Yankees model from 2016. There's nothing that doesnt say that JD can't opt out of his contract next year and sign with Boston after he's traded. This team is still in the bottom third with regards to the farm system. JD Martinez is by far the best trade chip this team has. Workman is getting there though. What do you think JDM would fetch you in a rental trade for a season that has a chance of not completing? Do you think it would be anything substantial or more along the lines of the spaghetti being thrown against the wall now? I think it's more the latter. I don't think sell-offs are going to get much of anything this season. No team in their right mind is giving up anything of significant value in a trade this seaon, or at least I don't think so. If the Red Sox deal JDM it's so they can get something (nothing of great value), which is better than nothing because they don't think he'll come back.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 29, 2020 8:33:34 GMT -5
For me, I doubt if JDM will opt out with the uncertainty that will be this coming off-season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 29, 2020 8:49:16 GMT -5
Agree with Ray. Can't assume he's opting out. Trading Martinez means you then need to assume you need to replace Martinez. You're not going to do that cheaper than what you're paying him.
That said, if things get bad, it would be prudent to try to talk to his agent to get a feel for what he's thinking.
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Post by jdb on Jul 29, 2020 9:10:46 GMT -5
Couldn’t we offer JDM a qualifying offer if he opts out and get a draft pick? Probably a better return than anything we get out there. I don’t see a whole lot of players that could go. To me it’s JBJ,Workman, Barnes and maybe Moreland. Maybe we could get 3-4 interesting arms in return but I don’t see many teams willing to give top guys at the deadline.
Thinking out loud is there anyway you listen on Xander? The SS FA market is loaded these next few seasons and he more than likely opts out after the market is reset, he might not be a SS after age 30 and we don’t know how Bloom values him compared to DDom. This offseason is Semien and Simmons and the following is Lindor, Story, Baez, Correa and Seager.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Jul 29, 2020 15:26:49 GMT -5
Question for the folks who think they're tanking: Do you think they were tanking when they entered camp with Sale and Rodriguez in the rotation, and with Darwinzon and Taylor looking like important relievers in front of Workman and Barnes? ------ That said, I think it comes down to this - the org was trying to field a competitive team with the restriction of being under the CBT. They had no room to maneuver if they lost players of that caliber long-term, and they're not going to use prospect capital to replace it. So if "not trying to win" means that currently, they're not looking to use trades to make significant improvements, I think that's right, although that's not necessarily how I'd put it. I think it's absolutely true they were trying to win while everyone is healthy, but as I said, with constraints. The original acquisition of guys like Springs, Hall, etc. was, to me, to mix-and-match guys in that fifth spot until something came along (like a Godley situation). I think we can all agree the plan was never Perez 2, Weber 3, then whatever the hell 4 and 5 were. Put it this way - if a player makes it to them on waivers, they're not going to not claim him because they don't want to win. I'm not of the opinion that they're 100% tanking from the get go, but like you said, they'll field as competitive a team as possible within the restrictions they've set, and if they're not able to compete under those restrictions, they won't. It's been stated in this thread already that amateur player acquisition has suffered greatly in this organization for the last 3-5 years. You're going into a 60 game season with your 2 best pitchers out for TJ and COVID, no organization depth or ascending prospect talent, and the necessity to stay under luxury tax. There is no point in trying to win games this season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 29, 2020 17:11:09 GMT -5
Couldn’t we offer JDM a qualifying offer if he opts out and get a draft pick? Probably a better return than anything we get out there. I don’t see a whole lot of players that could go. To me it’s JBJ,Workman, Barnes and maybe Moreland. Maybe we could get 3-4 interesting arms in return but I don’t see many teams willing to give top guys at the deadline. Thinking out loud is there anyway you listen on Xander? The SS FA market is loaded these next few seasons and he more than likely opts out after the market is reset, he might not be a SS after age 30 and we don’t know how Bloom values him compared to DDom. This offseason is Semien and Simmons and the following is Lindor, Story, Baez, Correa and Seager. Fair point on the QO, but it's a Competitive Balance B round pick, so the pick isn't all that great. That was picks 61-66 this year. Hell to the no on trading Xander. He's on a great contract through 2022 (I can't see him not opting out unless the economics of the game change long-term) at which point you're probably trying to extend him.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 29, 2020 20:34:03 GMT -5
Couldn’t we offer JDM a qualifying offer if he opts out and get a draft pick? Probably a better return than anything we get out there. I don’t see a whole lot of players that could go. To me it’s JBJ,Workman, Barnes and maybe Moreland. Maybe we could get 3-4 interesting arms in return but I don’t see many teams willing to give top guys at the deadline. Thinking out loud is there anyway you listen on Xander? The SS FA market is loaded these next few seasons and he more than likely opts out after the market is reset, he might not be a SS after age 30 and we don’t know how Bloom values him compared to DDom. This offseason is Semien and Simmons and the following is Lindor, Story, Baez, Correa and Seager. Fair point on the QO, but it's a Competitive Balance B round pick, so the pick isn't all that great. That was picks 61-66 this year. Hell to the no on trading Xander. He's on a great contract through 2022 (I can't see him not opting out unless the economics of the game change long-term) at which point you're probably trying to extend him. I think the way to maximize the return on JDM, if they really want to trade him, is to offer him and the acquiring team a chance to work out an extension before any trade is consumated. With the NL heading toward a DH, the LAD look like a potential trade partner to me. They're under great pressure to win a WS and have tons of money. They probably wouldn't think twice about ripping up his current deal and giving him 4 years, maybe even 5, at $25M a year starting in 2021. That would give the LAD more certainty than they had when they acquired Mookie who - as far as they knew at the time - could have been a one-year rental. We could offer to throw in another asset, such as Barnes of BWM, in order to nudge the prospect return up a bit. Extend Xander. Don't trade Xander.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2020 20:50:45 GMT -5
Why trade JDM? Unless you’re saying this rebuild is looking like 3-5 years? There’s not a hitter near his ability - except Springer - in free agency and you won’t get anything like him in a trade.
In fact, other than Springer who will be 31 but barring injury can prob still play CF for 2-3 more years and will be the top available free agent on the market, Realmuto, who will be 30, which can be a cliff for catchers, Odorizzi, who will be 31, and Stroman 30, there won’t be an everyday player or good starter 31 or under who will be worth a damn this winter.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 29, 2020 21:08:16 GMT -5
Guidas - I'm very ambivalent about trading him, though I think they have to think about it if they can get a nice prospect return.
Getting back to the top of the division is likely to take three years, IMO. The RS won't be any good next year and they don't get real payroll relief to chase a big SP until after 2022. They have nobody on the farm who profiles as a frontline SP.
There's also major uncertainty about what the 2021 (covid-19) and 2022 (labor wars) MLB seasons will look like. Any production we get out of JDM for at least this year and next year will just ease the suckage, not contribute to contending.
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Post by jdb on Jul 30, 2020 8:28:52 GMT -5
Why trade JDM? Unless you’re saying this rebuild is looking like 3-5 years? There’s not a hitter near his ability - except Springer - in free agency and you won’t get anything like him in a trade. In fact, other than Springer who will be 31 but barring injury can prob still play CF for 2-3 more years and will be the top available free agent on the market, Realmuto, who will be 30, which can be a cliff for catchers, Odorizzi, who will be 31, and Stroman 30, there won’t be an everyday player or good starter 31 or under who will be worth a damn this winter. I agree. I’d don’t think a return would be great and it might be better just to fall back on the additional $1+ million in draft money and hope the middle of the lineup is built with JDM/Devers/X and front of he rotation has Sale/Erod.
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Post by jdb on Aug 9, 2020 11:00:45 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Aug 9, 2020 11:14:23 GMT -5
Done, done, and done. Everything (but X and Devers) must go!
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 9, 2020 11:46:10 GMT -5
JD for Seth Beer straight up? I feel like Martinez is paid pretty close to market value so I can't imagine getting anyone back who would be better.
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