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Are the Red Sox trying to win this year?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 9, 2020 20:11:03 GMT -5
Are the Red Sox trying to win this year?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2020 20:44:32 GMT -5
JD for Seth Beer straight up? I feel like Martinez is paid pretty close to market value so I can't imagine getting anyone back who would be better. Based on his list of buyers, Moreland to the Rangers and Chavis to the Padres also make sense.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2020 22:26:31 GMT -5
I don't even think the question makes sense. They're 1.5 GB both the 5th seed (and can control their fate by beating the O's and Rays) and 8th seed, and the post-season is structured to help mediocre teams steal a first-round victory. *
You need three above-average starting pitchers and two more credible keep-you-in-the game types (the lesser of whom you pair with an opener) if you want to compete. Eovaldi and Perez are capable of being two of the good guys, and Godley looks like he can be a credible back-end guy. It would take a lot of bad luck if they can't find another from among Weber and Johnson (both who seemed to have their command earlier before losing it), Covey, Mazza, and so on. It's a low bar, especially if he's the bulk guy.
So that leaves the third good starter as the missing piece. It's a big one. And the sole credible candidate is Darwinzon Hernandez. They are stretching him out, and that tells you everything.
They may not get an answer to whether he'll be good enough before the deadline. It's easy to imagine him being erratic and overall ineffective before then, and then stepping up and shining in September. The talent is there. It's a longshot, but it exists.
It's bizarre beyond belief, but this team is a serious credible contender in the small percentage of universes where Eovaldi, Perez, and Hernandez are all as good as we know they can be (recall that I thought Perez had #2/3 starter upside when we got him). That Valdez and Brice look like legit bullpen additions helps, and the lineup is the lineup.
Watch the games and wait.
* Edit: right now there are only 11 teams that are above .500. If the season ended now, both the 7-9 Mets and 6-8 Rangers would make the playoffs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 9, 2020 23:26:03 GMT -5
Isn't the question now really should they try and win? You traded Betts and Price to retool. I wouldn't tank, yet I also wouldn't turn down good solid moves that make us better in the future. A top 5 pick and picking in the top 5 of every round could do wonders for our system.
I just don't see us having even a punchers chance in the playoffs. Heck maybe you steal a series, so what? Does that trump building for the future?
I can buy Hernandez could change things, yet if we're honest that's not a good chance. I wouldn't bet anything on that.
I'm look towards next year and improving those odds over this year. Yet what would be fun is trading guys to improve next year, then having young guys step up. If we made the playoffs that way, I could enjoy it. I want guys like Chavis and Dalbec playing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2020 23:34:45 GMT -5
This is a 60 game year. Should we actually care ?
I wouldn't want the 5th crown that way.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2020 23:37:35 GMT -5
My 2020 priorities...
Reset the tax. Get a decent draft position. Trade for the future. Let Bloom continue the reshape this off-season Win anything in 2020
Obviously people's mileage will vary.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 10, 2020 8:53:15 GMT -5
Good to have you back Eric. Appreciate your perspective (and optimism).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 10, 2020 8:58:17 GMT -5
This is a 60 game year. Should we actually care ? I wouldn't want the 5th crown that way. To each there own, yet if I felt we actually had a chance I'd go for it. Yet without ERod I don't see even that small chance.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 10, 2020 9:01:47 GMT -5
I don't even think the question makes sense. They're 1.5 GB both the 5th seed (and can control their fate by beating the O's and Rays) and 8th seed, and the post-season is structured to help mediocre teams steal a first-round victory. *
You need three above-average starting pitchers and two more credible keep-you-in-the game types (the lesser of whom you pair with an opener) if you want to compete. Eovaldi and Perez are capable of being two of the good guys, and Godley looks like he can be a credible back-end guy. It would take a lot of bad luck if they can't find another from among Weber and Johnson (both who seemed to have their command earlier before losing it), Covey, Mazza, and so on. It's a low bar, especially if he's the bulk guy.
So that leaves the third good starter as the missing piece. It's a big one. And the sole credible candidate is Darwinzon Hernandez. They are stretching him out, and that tells you everything.
They may not get an answer to whether he'll be good enough before the deadline. It's easy to imagine him being erratic and overall ineffective before then, and then stepping up and shining in September. The talent is there. It's a longshot, but it exists.
It's bizarre beyond belief, but this team is a serious credible contender in the small percentage of universes where Eovaldi, Perez, and Hernandez are all as good as we know they can be (recall that I thought Perez had #2/3 starter upside when we got him). That Valdez and Brice look like legit bullpen additions helps, and the lineup is the lineup.
Watch the games and wait.
* Edit: right now there are only 11 teams that are above .500. If the season ended now, both the 7-9 Mets and 6-8 Rangers would make the playoffs.
This all actually makes good sense. It comes down to lightening in a bottle, which is not crazy in baseball in a short series. That said, after yesterday I think we may be overrating Eovaldi a bit. They guy has a sick arm and can look amazing. But he still has a career 5+ ERA and a 4+ ERA this season. For as dominant as he is, he is also shockingly hittable. I’d love to see him string together a few performances where he shuts down the opposing team at least twice through.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 10, 2020 13:17:56 GMT -5
This is a 60 game year. Should we actually care ? I wouldn't want the 5th crown that way. I'm on team I Like It When the Red Sox Win and Hope They Do, but to be honest I'd feel almost guilty about winning a WS this year. If they did it would clearly be by some fluke, and it would be better for baseball if that fluke win went to a team that hasn't had so much recent success. Like a Padres or A's WS victory would be kinda cool. Unrelatedly: I just discovered that Eovaldi somehow has only 11 decisions in his entire Red Sox career. He's 6-5. 39 games, 27 starts.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Aug 10, 2020 13:52:10 GMT -5
This is a 60 game year. Should we actually care ? I wouldn't want the 5th crown that way. I would. Especially with the media and all those annoying trolls on social media killing the Red Sox for being “cheap” and all the other nonsense they have been saying, winning a title would be really sweet.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 10, 2020 14:07:03 GMT -5
When I was a kid I used to create my own projections every spring for the Red Sox lineup.
I remember as a six year old in the summer of 1993 that I wrote down Andre Dawson to hit .300 and belt out 25 home runs.
The wish - casting from Eric above makes my inner 6 year old self shake his head in disbelief.
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 10, 2020 14:34:15 GMT -5
I was thinking Mata as the third instead of Darwinzon.
I have to admit the prospect part of me wonders what the Sox could get for Workman, Moreland, Bradley, and others, but then I feel a little like the owners of the Indians in Major League or the New York Knights in The Natural. I think it would be hard for Bloom to sell at the deadline if the Sox are less than 3 games back of a playoff spot, even if their chances in the playoffs would seem to be slim.
I would be surprised if any trades were made before the last week of August, with teams wanting more assurance there will be playoffs before parting with prospects, and with so few teams actually being out of the running. It should be quite a good sellers market.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 11, 2020 15:14:13 GMT -5
When I was a kid I used to create my own projections every spring for the Red Sox lineup. I remember as a six year old in the summer of 1993 that I wrote down Andre Dawson to hit .300 and belt out 25 home runs. The wish - casting from Eric above makes my inner 6 year old self shake his head in disbelief. Yeah, I know, I have the same reaction to people with no reading skills.
Generous odds -- wishful-thinking odds -- that my supposed "wish-casting" scenario (whose very existence I labeled "bizarre beyond belief") happens:
70% Perez is good enough (#3 or better) 50% Eovaldi is good enough (strong #2 or better) 15% Hernandez is good enough (#3 or better) 80% 4th starter and bulk guy are good enough 80% bullpen is good enough 80% lineup is good enough
.7 * .5 * .15 * .8^3 = .027.
36 to 1.
Somewhat realistic odds are essentially 100 to 1. You want to bet $10 at 100 to 1 that they get to the second round of the playoffs?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 11, 2020 19:32:31 GMT -5
Thanks for insulting my intelligence and insinuating that I am barely literate.
I can assure you that my reading comprehension is not the problem, the problem lies in the fact that I cannot comprehend how someone can be capable of committing so much time to the act of self-delusion.
Your argument that this team can possibly contend is based on several bad assumptions: 1) Martin Perez has about a 70% likelihood of being a legitimate #3 starter.
Why you are wrong - Here we have a pitcher with almost 1,000 career innings in MLB. During that time his FIP & XFIP has been 4.47 & 4.55. That is literally the Fangraphs definition for slightly below average. Yes, he did have a stretch of 80 inning where he was better in the first half of last year but to choose to fixate on that sample while ignoring the larger body of work is wrong headed.
2) That it is more likely than not that one of the following are credible back end of the rotation starters: Brian Johnson, Ryan Weber, Dylan Covey, Chris Mazza.
Why you are wrong – It is possible that one of these guys does in fact become a useful back-end of the rotation SP. However, 3 of the 4 are journeymen who we acquired for free and Johnson is a post prospect with underwhelming stuff. However, you frame it as the most likely outcome and that is naïve.
3) Darwinison Hernandez may potentially be ready to slide into a MLB rotation and perform as a #3 starters
Why you are wrong – How many innings could he get through with his K & BB numbers? Forget even whether he could be effective, what in his performances indicate that he could even get through 4 innings with under 100 pitches on a regular basis.
4) Look at how many teams are under .500!! Right now we are only 1.5 games behind the final spot!
Why you are wrong – It is a tiny sample size and some good teams are under .500 due to sample size noise. The Astros, Nationals, Cardinals(5 game sample). We are not one of those teams.
5) You want to bet $10 at 100 to 1 that they get to the second round of the playoffs.
Why You are Wrong – In this silly thought exercise the only cost to making that bet is $10. The cost for the Red Sox in trying to compete may be not entertaining offers on players who could net us a return of valuable assets and give the team more financial flexibility in the future.
Please feel free to be as smarmy and rude as you want to be in your response. It will not change the fact that you are wrong.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2020 0:20:22 GMT -5
Thanks for insulting my intelligence and insinuating that I am barely literate. I can assure you that my reading comprehension is not the problem, the problem lies in the fact that I cannot comprehend how someone can be capable of committing so much time to the act of self-delusion. Your argument that this team can possibly contend is based on several bad assumptions: 1) Martin Perez has about a 70% likelihood of being a legitimate #3 starter. Why you are wrong - Here we have a pitcher with almost 1,000 career innings in MLB. During that time his FIP & XFIP has been 4.47 & 4.55. That is literally the Fangraphs definition for slightly below average. Yes, he did have a stretch of 80 inning where he was better in the first half of last year but to choose to fixate on that sample while ignoring the larger body of work is wrong headed. 2) That it is more likely than not that one of the following are credible back end of the rotation starters: Brian Johnson, Ryan Weber, Dylan Covey, Chris Mazza. Why you are wrong – It is possible that one of these guys does in fact become a useful back-end of the rotation SP. However, 3 of the 4 are journeymen who we acquired for free and Johnson is a post prospect with underwhelming stuff. However, you frame it as the most likely outcome and that is naïve. 3) Darwinison Hernandez may potentially be ready to slide into a MLB rotation and perform as a #3 starters Why you are wrong – How many innings could he get through with his K & BB numbers? Forget even whether he could be effective, what in his performances indicate that he could even get through 4 innings with under 100 pitches on a regular basis. 4) Look at how many teams are under .500!! Right now we are only 1.5 games behind the final spot! Why you are wrong – It is a tiny sample size and some good teams are under .500 due to sample size noise. The Astros, Nationals, Cardinals(5 game sample). We are not one of those teams. 5) You want to bet $10 at 100 to 1 that they get to the second round of the playoffs. Why You are Wrong – In this silly thought exercise the only cost to making that bet is $10. The cost for the Red Sox in trying to compete may be not entertaining offers on players who could net us a return of valuable assets and give the team more financial flexibility in the future. Please feel free to be as smarmy and rude as you want to be in your response. It will not change the fact that you are wrong. Agreed. I was looking at those "odds" he was calculating and shaking my head as I saw them. I mean, Hernandez as the #3 starter? With his K/BB ratio he'd be at 100 pitches by the 4th inning constantly and he hasn't even built up the arm strength to start yet. Brian Johnson isn't even on the team anymore and was never going to be the #3 guy that Eric constantly projected. Eric is a smart guy obviously but I find that he tends to run with small sample sizes and extrapolate them like they're going to be the new normal. I'm still waiting for the new Matt Barnes he promised us. I'll go through the same exercise here: 70% Perez is good enough (#3 or better). - I'll peg that at 50% based on his long track record of pitching like a backend starter. 50% Eovaldi is good enough (strong #2 or better) - I'll peg that at 40% based on his long track record of being mid-rotation and injury prone 15% Hernandez is good enough (#3 or better) - I'll peg that at 3% based on what I wrote above. 80% 4th starter and bulk guy are good enough - I'll peg that at 30% based on the crap we've seen and their lousy track records. 80% bullpen is good enough - I'll peg that at 50% which is generous considering the bullpen mediocrity and then the overwork.... 80% lineup is good enough - I'll put that at 60% because Benintendi is a mess, Peraza is terrible, and JBJ is JBJ. Ok lineup. Not great. I'll skip the math but multiplying my odds I get a team that's far worse than the odds he has. But you can truly play that game for all teams, but the odds are you'd get better odds for the majority of the teams. Honestly, I don't even care. I'd rather have a top 5 pick in the draft and a luxury tax reset than watch them go 28-32 and maybe shock with a first round 2 out of 3 before they get squashed and actually spend whatever assets they have to accomplish this - which I doubt Bloom would do anyways. They know this is a year they're likely to suck.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2020 1:24:23 GMT -5
We are now #2. Top 3 is within our grasp and there are 3 pitchers at the top of the upcoming draft.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 12, 2020 1:59:55 GMT -5
Why trade JDM? Unless you’re saying this rebuild is looking like 3-5 years? There’s not a hitter near his ability - except Springer - in free agency and you won’t get anything like him in a trade. In fact, other than Springer who will be 31 but barring injury can prob still play CF for 2-3 more years and will be the top available free agent on the market, Realmuto, who will be 30, which can be a cliff for catchers, Odorizzi, who will be 31, and Stroman 30, there won’t be an everyday player or good starter 31 or under who will be worth a damn this winter. Because chances are we're not going to be good this year or next. Where is he going to help lead the Red Sox if we're not a title threat? You think Sox are contenders either this year or next? If not, and you can get good trade value for him, then why not? You believe he has a lot of value apparently, right? So where is he going to lead the Sox this year or next? Why strive to be a mediocre team without having a strong farm system?
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 13, 2020 15:09:12 GMT -5
Unless it will be continued here, it increasingly looks like we might have need of a trade deadline thread. One thing that I would enjoy reading are players that people here would like to obtain at the deadline.
I was impressed that freddysthefuture nailed the Blaze Jordan pick, not just after Yorke was taken, but as early as March 4th in the draft thread. Even more shocking was jackiebradleyjrjr suggesting Graterol might be included as the player from a mystery third team in the Betts deal on page 2 of that thread. (On page 59, chrisfromnc had my favorite post of that thread about his dog Mookie)
Earlier this week on the WEEI pregame show, Rob Bradford declared his desire for Marlins top pitching propect Sixto Sanchez at the deadline. I thought that was a little ambitious but the Sox have turned Andrew Miller into ERod and of course the gold standard, Slocumb for Lowe and Tek.
In the Wil Myers thread,. many mentioned Campusano since he is blocked in SD by Mejia and we know Bloom seemed interested in Quantrill as a low cost starting option who certainly would look good now. Interested in others thoughts.
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 13, 2020 15:14:52 GMT -5
With the state of the team and the 60 game season.... I hope they keep losing and sell at the deadline. Let’s get this rebuild started.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 13, 2020 15:24:45 GMT -5
I'm sure the players aren't going out there trying to blow games. But I think Chaim has the right mindset that a season in Tank City wouldn't be a bad thing.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 13, 2020 15:27:35 GMT -5
Unless it will be continued here, it increasingly looks like we might have need of a trade deadline thread. One thing that I would enjoy reading are players that people here would like to obtain at the deadline. I was impressed that freddysthefuture nailed the Blaze Jordan pick, not just after Yorke was taken, but as early as March 4th in the draft thread. Even more shocking was jackiebradleyjrjr suggesting Graterol might be included as the player from a mystery third team in the Betts deal on page 2 of that thread. (On page 59, chrisfromnc had my favorite post of that thread about his dog Mookie) Earlier this week on the WEEI pregame show, Rob Bradford declared his desire for Marlins top pitching propect Sixto Sanchez at the deadline. I thought that was a little ambitious but the Sox have turned Andrew Miller into ERod and of course the gold standard, Slocumb for Lowe and Tek. In the Wil Myers thread,. many mentioned Campusano since he is blocked in SD by Mejia and we know Bloom seemed interested in Quantrill as a low cost starting option who certainly would look good now. Interested in others thoughts. Quantrill would be the Sox ace at this point. Who do the Sox need to move to make him and Campusano happen? That would be a dream return. Sixto would be a great get too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 14, 2020 11:10:14 GMT -5
If someone wants to start a trade deadline thread then go ahead. You don't need to wait for someone else to do so. I guess we are a little over two weeks away after all.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 14, 2020 21:13:24 GMT -5
Big numbers are good right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2020 10:15:55 GMT -5
Oh crap, I think I deleted the second post as a double-post but then realized as it was disappearing that it was a different tweet. Sorry!!!
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