How the Dodgers could afford Mookie

Yeah, whiffing on the 2012 and, even moreso, 2013 drafts created a prospect bubble, that when combined with the number of players they've traded and suboptimal FA contracts created the CBT issue.

I'm going to play devil's advocate here.

Not trying to be Dave Dombrowski's defense attorney, but when it says he traded everyone, I don't see a bunch of trades (not trying to rehash what has been rehashed a million times) that were killers. The Travis Shaw deal didn't work out by wasn't that much of a killer considering that Mitch Moreland gave them reasonably cheap production at 1b (along with Pearce, obtained for a guy who may never be more than fringe in the majors if he makes it) and Devers did eventually solve the 3b issue.

The point I'm trying to make is if given a choice I wouldn't undo the Kimbrel deal, the Sale deal, wouldn't have taken back the Price deal (his Oct 2018 alone makes it worthwhile for me). I hated the Espinoza deal but it looks like the Sox did wind up getting the better of it unless Espinoza does eventually develop. They don't win the division without Pomeranz in 2017.

Hell, I wouldn't undo the Nunez deal. Nor would I undo the Eovaldi/Beeks trade. The Kinsler deal wasn't good but it's not a killer.

I don't think the Sox lost anything in any deals that were insurmountable although Moncada and maybe Kopech are real prizes, but again young controllable ace is high on the pyramid.

Did they lose depth? Yes, but again, guys on the lower end of the talent pyramid should be easily replaceable. The Red Sox gave up what you'd expect for somebody on the high end of that pyramid like Sale.

I think the issues were the lack of pitching development in the farm system which lead to poor decision making after the Series victory.

That and lack of communication between ownership and Dombrowski? I mean, if they knew that they had to be under a certain amount, I don't know why you don't find a way to trade JBJ, fresh off his sterling post-season or Porcello, who was coming off a productive season, if you know you need to pay Trout money to keep Mookie and stay under the limit. Maybe even a Price after that World Series could have been a possibility. Of course, they re-signed Sale before they absolutely had to (of course I'd be a hypocrite if I said I was against it at the time).

It seems to me there was a lack of creativity in not only making a combo of what was suggested above but not being able to find a replacement for JBJ on the cheap who could be overall just as effective but for a fraction of the cost, the kind of creative move that Chaim Bloom is trying to do.

It seems to me that was the downfall of Dombrowski rather than the actual trades he made. I think the Sox did well in those deals and without them, they'd have more #4/#5 type starter and more utility guys, and yeah, Moncada would be awesome in the lineup, but they'd be without that 2018 World Championship, and that championship is still what the Dodgers are pursuing, even though they have done just about everything perfectly (except the interference in my opinion between Roberts and the FO that resulted in LA unable to use their best relievers in Game 4 of the 2018 World Series) the way you'd wish the Red Sox would do.

It's not a very exciting explanation, but is the Sox' lack of ability to develop pitchers attributable to sheer bad luck? I mean, part of it is trading them away. But if they still had Kopech, Anderson Espinoza, and Logan Allen in the system, along with Groome, they wouldn't look like they were bad at developing pitchers so much as they had just had incredibly bad luck with injuries, no?

In other words, could the case be made that there's really no talent evaluation issue to address? (Trey Ball being a pretty high-profile exception, admittedly.)

My theory continues to be that Dombrowski thought he would be under the tax limit in 2019 but he just screwed up the calculations and that's why he was fired.

You realize they were over by $34 million, right? That's not quite a rounding error.

I mean, it was Dombrowski...

Jk, I didn't realize it was that much. I just vaguely remembered a bunch of ericvman comments about how they were managing the payroll in a brilliant fashion (if you squinted and made a bunch of very generous assumptions about their competence). But hell, I'm probably not even remembering correctly which season that was...

It's bad luck and we are way overdue for that to change.

One benefit of revisiting our drafts as we've been doing and that you should definitely read is that one thing in those 2012 and 2013 drafts was a focus on pitcher size that simply didn't work. Focusing on plane turned out to be counterproductive, leading to those misses in drafts where they did focus their attention on arms.

Since 2014-ish they've done much better identifying and developing that talent into major leaguers, but they've also traded just about all those guys away to fill the bubble caused by the 2012-13 misses. I won't go out and say that a 2014-2017 group of Kopech, Allen, Anderson, Houck Groome, Beeks etc, will stand with anyone's pitching development in terms of talent, but I'm guessing if we went through the league it would rate slightly better than average. They're just not getting any benefit from that group right now.

I would take the championships over being The Dodgers, too, but you still need to develop better than #5-6 starters or you’ll end up paying through the nose for it in cash or prospects. Plus the league has adjusted and are looking up the better players more often and younger. You Can’t “retool” like you used to. The environment is much different.

My real complaint is that this team has tremendous resources and smart people looking for inefficiencies, but developing pitching has been a significant inefficiency for this team since about 2006. I would think about 4-5 years ago they would’ve shaken off their own hubris/ineffectiveness and gone out and overpaid for the cheapest talent in the game - front office personnel who have shown exceptional talent in this area.

Now, even if they get to reset this year, there really isn’t a #1/2 worth overpaying for in the upcoming offseason, and I don’t think they have the in-house talent to go get it unless they can find someone very good who another team can no longer afford.

Sure Sale may come back, and ERod has to attend to his heart health - but may be back this year. But even with them next year, there’s no back-up if one goes down.

I've honestly always believed the Red Sox mentality should have been to just draft 40 pitchers each year and let the chips fall where they may. You can always sign a big league position player on a 1 year deal and trade your arms for more bats at the deadline.  

Sure they need to do better, yet I don't think it's the team or approach. More like bad luck and we are do for some good luck.

I don't think anything has changed with retooling lately. Clear the books and restock the system. Look at trades like Myers where you use money to buy prospects and sell pieces at the deadline.