SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/31-8/2 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 4, 2020 9:55:15 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Bloom should be blamed. I do agree with your points about Dombrowski and his deals. I really wouldn't undo many of them and without most of them, they don't have the ultimate season. But somewhere the communication between him and the FO in terms of long-term vision failed miserably and while he was good at high end shopping, he didn't stock the system with depth and along the way the failure to develop pitching has become an issue. I look at the Sox now and say, "The next time they're seriously competitive, who from this roster will be on THAT roster? I do think it's probable Verdugo and Downs will be on THAT roster, so I do think they got value. A second guess might be choosing Downs and Wong over Graterol, particularly if he can start, but they didn't think he could and Downs is more of a sure thing... But anyways you have Devers who's a yes, X who is a "hope so" if he doesn't opt out. Beyond that I'd see Benintendi is a "maybe". Sale probably will be but probably more as a supporting player than a leading role. E-Rod is a possibility is they extend him. The rest of the roster, even Vazquez, are unlikely to be on the next Red Sox team that seriously competes. It is very hard for me to call Downs a “probable” when it is no less probable the guy doesn’t even pan out. He is a very young guy who, from all descriptions, has no particularly mind-blowing tools. So all his decent tools have to max out their average to above average potential. That’s my beef with Bloom: I think if Downs and Verdugo are around for the next run, they are mostly passengers. But there won’t be a next run until the star void left by Mookie is filled. That might be an OF slot or 1B but they have too many meh guys in the lineup. Obviously... pitching. Goes without saying. I mentioned Downs as probable because he'll be cheap obviously and I do think that he can be a .260 - .280 type hitter with 15 - 25 HR power. He'll probably wind up at 2b but can move to a corner OF position if need be. Verdugo reminds me a bit of Shane Victorino but with a better hit tool and less speed. I can see him hitting .280 - .310 with 15 - 25 home run power. No, those aren't franchise cornerstones, but they are building blocks, so I think they can be a useful part of the next seriously contending Red Sox teams. No, there are no Mookie Betts of the future in the system. There has never been a Mookie Betts in the system and might never again be in our lifetime. I don't ever remember seeing a guy who excelled with all five tools and supplemented those tools with excellent plate discipline and a positive presence in the clubhouse and his community. It's as rare as the Sox developing a Roger Clemens. We can't expect it again. If there are future cornerstones I'd guess Casas and Blaze Jordan could be those guys, although both could just as easily bust or just be good player, not superstars. Maybe at some point the Red Sox reinvest their millions on a superstar down the road. I have always felt that the Sox FO is better at signing other free agent stars than keeping their own stars. But beyond the superstars a strong supporting cast is necessary and Verdugo and Downs could very well be part of that. And as far as your last point - couldn't agree more. None of this matters if they can't develop pitchers that can get batters out.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2020 10:13:22 GMT -5
It is very hard for me to call Downs a “probable” when it is no less probable the guy doesn’t even pan out. He is a very young guy who, from all descriptions, has no particularly mind-blowing tools. So all his decent tools have to max out their average to above average potential. That’s my beef with Bloom: I think if Downs and Verdugo are around for the next run, they are mostly passengers. But there won’t be a next run until the star void left by Mookie is filled. That might be an OF slot or 1B but they have too many meh guys in the lineup. Obviously... pitching. Goes without saying. I mentioned Downs as probable because he'll be cheap obviously and I do think that he can be a .260 - .280 type hitter with 15 - 25 HR power. He'll probably wind up at 2b but can move to a corner OF position if need be. Verdugo reminds me a bit of Shane Victorino but with a better hit tool and less speed. I can see him hitting .280 - .310 with 15 - 25 home run power. No, those aren't franchise cornerstones, but they are building blocks, so I think they can be a useful part of the next seriously contending Red Sox teams. No, there are no Mookie Betts of the future in the system. There has never been a Mookie Betts in the system and might never again be in our lifetime. I don't ever remember seeing a guy who excelled with all five tools and supplemented those tools with excellent plate discipline and a positive presence in the clubhouse and his community. It's as rare as the Sox developing a Roger Clemens. We can't expect it again. If there are future cornerstones I'd guess Casas and Blaze Jordan could be those guys, although both could just as easily bust or just be good player, not superstars. Maybe at some point the Red Sox reinvest their millions on a superstar down the road. I have always felt that the Sox FO is better at signing other free agent stars than keeping their own stars. But beyond the superstars a strong supporting cast is necessary and Verdugo and Downs could very well be part of that. And as far as your last point - couldn't agree more. None of this matters if they can't develop pitchers that can get batters out. Victorino without the speed is... not Victorino. And .300 with 25 HRs? Sign me up. But .280 with 15 HRs? Not what I trade a 26-year-old all-time great for. I am optimistic about Casas being a power hitting 1B. Jordan is ages away, and there are tons of cautions in the scouting report. As a gambling man, I’d still bet “never makes it.” The rarity of a Betts is why it is so nauseating not to keep him. I mean.... the Angels kept Trout, the Twins kept Mauer, the Yankees keep everybody, the Reds kept Votto etc etc. Overall, I am suspicious of projections on prospects. I mean, how many guys have we seen who could be .280 hitters with some power? Hell, I remember Sean Coyle hitting 15ish Hrs and batting .290 at AA. It is a numbers game.... very few of them work out. Downs is a wee guy who, if he hits his peak potential, would be a very nice 2B, a disappointing OF. But that is if everything breaks right, which are odds I tend to bet against. Final point: there is an opportunity cost to meh guys, which is what we see with our current OF. As pieces, any of those guys is not bad... assuming the others are studs. But we have slotted in meh guys at all three positions... giving us an outfield that is not a contender’s group. So at least one of those guys needs an upgrade. JBJ is likely the first to go... but do you over spend on Springer or someone to make up for the dearth of offense? Ugh. Do you spread the improvement by dumping Benny in favor of a bit better CF and LF?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 4, 2020 11:37:40 GMT -5
I mentioned Downs as probable because he'll be cheap obviously and I do think that he can be a .260 - .280 type hitter with 15 - 25 HR power. He'll probably wind up at 2b but can move to a corner OF position if need be. Verdugo reminds me a bit of Shane Victorino but with a better hit tool and less speed. I can see him hitting .280 - .310 with 15 - 25 home run power. No, those aren't franchise cornerstones, but they are building blocks, so I think they can be a useful part of the next seriously contending Red Sox teams. No, there are no Mookie Betts of the future in the system. There has never been a Mookie Betts in the system and might never again be in our lifetime. I don't ever remember seeing a guy who excelled with all five tools and supplemented those tools with excellent plate discipline and a positive presence in the clubhouse and his community. It's as rare as the Sox developing a Roger Clemens. We can't expect it again. If there are future cornerstones I'd guess Casas and Blaze Jordan could be those guys, although both could just as easily bust or just be good player, not superstars. Maybe at some point the Red Sox reinvest their millions on a superstar down the road. I have always felt that the Sox FO is better at signing other free agent stars than keeping their own stars. But beyond the superstars a strong supporting cast is necessary and Verdugo and Downs could very well be part of that. And as far as your last point - couldn't agree more. None of this matters if they can't develop pitchers that can get batters out. Victorino without the speed is... not Victorino. And .300 with 25 HRs? Sign me up. But .280 with 15 HRs? Not what I trade a 26-year-old all-time great for. I am optimistic about Casas being a power hitting 1B. Jordan is ages away, and there are tons of cautions in the scouting report. As a gambling man, I’d still bet “never makes it.” The rarity of a Betts is why it is so nauseating not to keep him. I mean.... the Angels kept Trout, the Twins kept Mauer, the Yankees keep everybody, the Reds kept Votto etc etc. Overall, I am suspicious of projections on prospects. I mean, how many guys have we seen who could be .280 hitters with some power? Hell, I remember Sean Coyle hitting 15ish Hrs and batting .290 at AA. It is a numbers game.... very few of them work out. Downs is a wee guy who, if he hits his peak potential, would be a very nice 2B, a disappointing OF. But that is if everything breaks right, which are odds I tend to bet against. Final point: there is an opportunity cost to meh guys, which is what we see with our current OF. As pieces, any of those guys is not bad... assuming the others are studs. But we have slotted in meh guys at all three positions... giving us an outfield that is not a contender’s group. So at least one of those guys needs an upgrade. JBJ is likely the first to go... but do you over spend on Springer or someone to make up for the dearth of offense? Ugh. Do you spread the improvement by dumping Benny in favor of a bit better CF and LF? It comes down to the fact that the Red Sox painted themselves into a corner with Betts. They did not want to pay him Trout money. That's the bottom line so they HAD to trade him. It comes down to would they have been better off with the San Diego deal or with LA's deal? And were they correct to back out of Graterol and substitute Verdugo and Wong in his place? I think Bloom was hoping and praying that the medicals would show that he could be the top shelf starting pitching prospect they've been looking for. Bloom wanted Graterol and Verdugo for Betts. But when the medicals said he can only be a reliever he went with Downs and Wong in their place. Verdugo is already a .280 guy with 15 HR power. If he doesn't take any steps forward after his age 23 season that's what he is. But there's a reasonable chance that he could step forward and blossom to .300 with 20 - 25 HRs. Does it mean it will happen? No. We're still waiting on Benintendi, right? Still, it's a reasonable chance and he is on short $, which is what the Red Sox #1 goal was this offseason, right? I believe that the decision was made higher up than Bloom that if Mookie wanted Trout-like money, they weren't going to sign him and had to trade him, and with other teams knowing that he'd want Trout money and adamant that he was going to free agency (before the pandemic really, really hit hard), why would a team give up much to rent him? The Sox painted themselves into a corner of getting the best they can get. Dumping Betts does NOT improve the Red Sox over the next few years unless a combo of A) Verdugo and/or Downs develop as hoped for) and B) the Sox take the money they would have spent on Betts and spread it out wisely. All of this is a moot point, like you said, if they can't figure out the pitching going forward. My biggest disappointment about the deal, honestly, other than the fact that the Sox did NOT want to commit Trout money to Betts was that they couldn't figure out a way to expand the deal (like including Workman plus whoever) so that they could have kept Graterol in the trade in addition to getting Downs and Verdugo and Wong, too).
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2020 11:53:48 GMT -5
Umm Sean Coyle never came close to being a top 100 guy, nevermind a top 50 guy. Heck Sean Coyle never even made our top 10 list on this site. Comparing the two only makes sense if you want to bash guys.
Hate the Betts trade, yet no true Red Sox fan is going to bash our players. If it doesn't workout then bitch about the trade forever. Yet Jeter Downs is not Sean Coyle either. Sean Coyles AA season was a fluke career year type thing. Downs actually has the tools, which is why he's rated #44 and the #1 guy in our system. Something Coyle never came close to.
Also MLB.com rates Downs with above average hit tool and arm.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2020 12:06:50 GMT -5
Yeah you can't just list one dissimilar prospect who didn't work out as evidence that Downs won't. Even listing a similar prospect who didn't pan out as evidence would be some n=1 stuff, but Downs as compared to Coyle? What even is that? As a 20-year old Downs .276/.362/.526 24 HR, 60 BB, 107 K in 119 games split between High A and Double-A. At the same age, Coyle hit .249/.316/.391 with 9 HR, 29 BB, 116 K in 116 games at High A. And yes, part of the difference, particularly in the power numbers, is that Downs was in the California League and Coyle was in the Carolina League. But a much bigger part of the difference is that Downs is a different baseball player whose game doesn't really have any similarities to Coyle other than them being infielders.
Downs might not pan out, but the fact that you remember Sean Coyle not working out doesn't have anything to do with anything. And I don't like the Betts trade either, but Downs is a very good prospect and nobody should be jaded about him as a ballplayer because they don't like the transaction as a whole.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2020 12:22:53 GMT -5
Yeah you can't just list one dissimilar prospect who didn't work out as evidence that Downs won't. Even listing a similar prospect who didn't pan out as evidence would be some n=1 stuff, but Downs as compared to Coyle? What even is that? As a 20-year old Downs .276/.362/.526 24 HR, 60 BB, 107 K in 119 games split between High A and Double-A. At the same age, Coyle hit .249/.316/.391 with 9 HR, 29 BB, 116 K in 116 games at High A. And yes, part of the difference, particularly in the power numbers, is that Downs was in the California League and Coyle was in the Carolina League. But a much bigger part of the difference is that Downs is a different baseball player whose game doesn't really have any similarities to Coyle other than them being infielders. Downs might not pan out, but the fact that you remember Sean Coyle not working out doesn't have anything to do with anything. And I don't like the Betts trade either, but Downs is a very good prospect and nobody should be jaded about him as a ballplayer because they don't like the transaction as a whole. I didn’t feel like going back through the list, and I picked one 2B. But as I said in a different thread, for example, the load of prospects DD traded have largely gone nowhere, with the exception of Mocada, who was always a rare talent who’d already performed at a high level. My general point is that if you are talking all but the tippy top prospects, it is safe to bet on disappointment. So when I see people saying that things are looking up because soon we’ll have Downs at second, amongst other things, I see that as basically wishful thinking until proven otherwise. Even with Casas, I’ll believe it when I see it. I was stoked for Lars Anderson, too. Kalish. Middlebrooks. Swihart. Casey Kelly. All #1 guys in the system in the last 10 years who amounted to nothing. Chavis and Benny are scuffling. So even the top prospect is an under 50% chance of being even useful, much less excellent. Maybe they’ll all be the next generation. I’m just in the camp that says never pencil a guy who has played 12 games over A+ ball in as a future starter.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2020 13:04:31 GMT -5
Why are we just looking at busts? If you're fair then you'd notice our top 50 guys over the past two decades have about the same chance of becoming stars as they do being busts. I'm just talking about positional players because with Pitchers injuries can destroy them.
For every Anderson there is a Nomar, for every Swihart there is a Betts.
We've won four Championship's because we have produced a ton of star level position players. Heck we've traded away mega stars like Ramirez and Moncada.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Aug 4, 2020 13:06:44 GMT -5
With Soroka going down for the Braves if there’s ever a team that could use Eovaldi it’s them.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2020 14:09:39 GMT -5
Why are we just looking at busts? If you're fair then you'd notice our top 50 guys over the past two decades have about the same chance of becoming stars as they do being busts. I'm just talking about positional players because with Pitchers injuries can destroy them. For every Anderson there is a Nomar, for every Swihart there is a Betts. We've won four Championship's because we have produced a ton of star level position players. Heck we've traded away mega stars like Ramirez and Moncada. That is definitely not true. And I’m not complaining about the system. But just looking at the archive of the soxprospects rankings back to 2003, the “stars” are: Lester Youkilis Han-Ram Papelbon Pedey Anibel Sanchez (stretching a bit) Ellsbury Buchholz Lowrie Masterson (again, a bit of a stretch) Reddick Rizzo Xander Mookie Devers We’ll call guys like Benny and Moncada too soon to tell. That is out of probably a few hundred guys in the top-20s in that span... or about 7ish%? That seems fine. But it doesn’t project to almost as likely to be a star as a bust, that’s for sure.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 4, 2020 14:17:53 GMT -5
Why are we just looking at busts? If you're fair then you'd notice our top 50 guys over the past two decades have about the same chance of becoming stars as they do being busts. I'm just talking about positional players because with Pitchers injuries can destroy them. For every Anderson there is a Nomar, for every Swihart there is a Betts. We've won four Championship's because we have produced a ton of star level position players. Heck we've traded away mega stars like Ramirez and Moncada. That is definitely not true. And I’m not complaining about the system. But just looking at the archive of the soxprospects rankings back to 2003, the “stars” are: Lester Youkilis Han-Ram Papelbon Pedey Anibel Sanchez (stretching a bit) Ellsbury Buchholz Lowrie Masterson (again, a bit of a stretch) Reddick Rizzo Xander Mookie Devers We’ll call guys like Benny and Moncada too soon to tell. That is out of probably a few hundred guys in the top-20s in that span... or about 7ish%? That seems fine. But it doesn’t project to almost as likely to be a star as a bust, that’s for sure. You're talking about the SP top 20s, UMass is talking about top 50 lists across all of baseball. Guys who are ranked #1/2 in the system like Downs and Casas have a much higher than 7% hit rate.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2020 14:52:16 GMT -5
That is definitely not true. And I’m not complaining about the system. But just looking at the archive of the soxprospects rankings back to 2003, the “stars” are: Lester Youkilis Han-Ram Papelbon Pedey Anibel Sanchez (stretching a bit) Ellsbury Buchholz Lowrie Masterson (again, a bit of a stretch) Reddick Rizzo Xander Mookie Devers We’ll call guys like Benny and Moncada too soon to tell. That is out of probably a few hundred guys in the top-20s in that span... or about 7ish%? That seems fine. But it doesn’t project to almost as likely to be a star as a bust, that’s for sure. You're talking about the SP top 20s, UMass is talking about top 50 lists across all of baseball. Guys who are ranked #1/2 in the system like Downs and Casas have a might higher than 7% hit rate. This made me curious to look at the full list of guys who have ranked top-2 in the system. By my count it's: Casas Downs Chavis Mata D. Hernandez Groome Devers Benintendi Moncada ERod Swihart Owens Betts Bogaerts Bradley Barnes Ranaudo Middlebrooks Kalish Iglesias C. Kelly L. Anderson Reddick Bowden Masterson Buchholz Ellsbury Lester Hansen Papelbon H. Ramirez Moss Youkilis J. de la Rosa F. Sanchez Honestly that's a pretty impressive hit rate. Counting everybody above Devers as TBD, I only see 8 flame-outs on that list of 29, and at least 10 all-star caliber players. So there you have it. Downs has a 72% chance of being at least a league-average player, and a 34% chance of being an all-star. I proved it with numbers!
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2020 14:59:52 GMT -5
You're talking about the SP top 20s, UMass is talking about top 50 lists across all of baseball. Guys who are ranked #1/2 in the system like Downs and Casas have a might higher than 7% hit rate. This made me curious to look at the full list of guys who have ranked top-2 in the system. By my count it's: Casas Downs Chavis Mata D. Hernandez Groome Devers Benintendi Moncada ERod Swihart Owens Betts Bogaerts Bradley Barnes Ranaudo Middlebrooks Kalish Iglesias C. Kelly L. Anderson Reddick Bowden Masterson Buchholz Ellsbury Lester Hansen Papelbon H. Ramirez Moss Youkilis J. de la Rosa F. Sanchez Honestly that's a pretty impressive hit rate. Counting everybody above Devers as TBD, I only see 8 flame-outs on that list of 29, and at least 10 all-star caliber players. So there you have it. Downs has a 72% chance of being at least a league-average player, and a 34% chance of being an all-star. I proved it with numbers! I look forward to 2023, when Groome wins Cy Young, Downs wins ROY, and Chavis and Casas combine for 90 HRs. It will make it all worth it.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2020 15:15:08 GMT -5
Okay I guess some people just always want to see the glass half full.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2020 15:47:45 GMT -5
I did not know that Jose Peraza was a higher ranked prospect than Jeter Downs. Maybe we have our 2B of the future now.
|
|
|
Post by juanfatj on Aug 4, 2020 16:32:13 GMT -5
With Soroka going down for the Braves if there’s ever a team that could use Eovaldi it’s them. They did show interest in him, however it was in July 2018.
|
|
|