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2020 midseason national rankings
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 10, 2020 23:41:52 GMT -5
It also depends if you considered Matsuzaka a prospect. But if you're talking ceiling only, then yeah: Buchholz, Kopech, Espinoza, Lester, arguably Groome, Pavano, maybe Rose (though Pavano had passed him in regard by the time their prospect status peaked, it turns out for good reason), Frankie Rodriguez (BA had him #9 overall in '92). Casey Kelly |
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 21, 2020 13:33:31 GMT -5
Q & A with Keith Law on the Sox farm system: theathletic.com/2048383/2020/09/10/keith-law-red-sox-farm-system/?source=dailyemailSome items.. Still views Downs as our top prospect. Didn't mention Casas except in passing Doesn't view Mata or Houck as starters and likes Ward better than either Thinks Duran's power is probably legit because of the swing change but wants to see it live. No list but has Seabold at back of top 10,Rosario back of top 20 and Botts in the low 20's He seems to like Groome, Song and Ward as future legit MLB starters He doesn't see any of the catchers as future starters I hope if someone here catches Keith's next chat, they will ask him if he saw Tanner's two starts and whether his opinion has changed at all. I know he didn't show a third pitch Sunday but 6 innings and one hit? I think it would be hard to banish him to the bullpen after that. I do think it's great that he likes Groome, Song and Ward as starters because I respect his opinion. Hope he is also underestimating Mata who Abbott is high on. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2020 15:22:12 GMT -5
FYI, that wasn't a chat. He's doing a series where a beat writer for each team asks him questions about that team's system.
For what it's worth, the opinions he expressed on the players who'd been around weren't new. He's never been big on Mata, for example.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 5:56:41 GMT -5
Since the national rankings don't have a lot to go on and since I believe neither Houck nor Dalbec will exhaust rookie consideration, Houck, Dalbec and the new additions could propel us from bottom third to top third organizations.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 22, 2020 6:14:57 GMT -5
Q & A with Keith Law on the Sox farm system: theathletic.com/2048383/2020/09/10/keith-law-red-sox-farm-system/?source=dailyemailSome items.. Still views Downs as our top prospect. Didn't mention Casas except in passing Doesn't view Mata or Houck as starters and likes Ward better than either Thinks Duran's power is probably legit because of the swing change but wants to see it live. No list but has Seabold at back of top 10,Rosario back of top 20 and Botts in the low 20's He seems to like Groome, Song and Ward as future legit MLB starters He doesn't see any of the catchers as future starters I hope if someone here catches Keith's next chat, they will ask him if he saw Tanner's two starts and whether his opinion has changed at all. I know he didn't show a third pitch Sunday but 6 innings and one hit? I think it would be hard to banish him to the bullpen after that. I do think it's great that he likes Groome, Song and Ward as starters because I respect his opinion. Hope he is also underestimating Mata who Abbott is high on. Well at least he likes on of the two guys I do. I only rate downs over casas bcs of position. Casas is stuck at dh or 1b, downs has the athletic ability to play multiple positions. As for Mata I'm not seeing what he is. Kid has always been ahead of schedule age wise. Everytime he repeats a level he dominates it. As he added velocity he has had issues with control but always figures it out. Time will tell not like Keith law has been the best at predicting talent. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 6:18:44 GMT -5
I hope if someone here catches Keith's next chat, they will ask him if he saw Tanner's two starts and whether his opinion has changed at all. I know he didn't show a third pitch Sunday but 6 innings and one hit? I think it would be hard to banish him to the bullpen after that. I do think it's great that he likes Groome, Song and Ward as starters because I respect his opinion. Hope he is also underestimating Mata who Abbott is high on. Well at least he likes on of the two guys I do. I only rate downs over casas bcs of position. Casas is stuck at dh or 1b, downs has the athletic ability to play multiple positions. As for Mata I'm not seeing what he is. Kid has always been ahead of schedule age wise. Everytime he repeats a level he dominates it. As he added velocity he has had issues with control but always figures it out. Time will tell not like Keith law has been the best at predicting talent. I think for that Q&A, Law was using dated information. ADD: It was a Q&A within a single media organization. I assume they submitted questions, he went to his information and answered. He wouldn't be likely to contact any of his contacts to update information for a Q&A. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2020 9:36:16 GMT -5
Since the national rankings don't have a lot to go on and since I believe neither Houck nor Dalbec will exhaust rookie consideration, Houck, Dalbec and the new additions could propel us from bottom third to top third organizations. This seems aggressive, and I don't think those two are going to move the dial much. Houck will have made 3 starts, which isn't a big sample obviously, and Dalbec, for all of the power he's shown, is still striking out close to half of the time, which isn't remotely sustainable. I do think the system is a bit underrated and the additions certainly help somewhat, but the additions are all more in the 11-20 range (I'd expect something like that on the Osich return as well, hopefully, but it might be a bit less than that). The main knock on the system has been at the top, not in its depth. I would expect a slower climb starting next summer after they add a top 10 at least, and most likely a top 3, draft pick, and the guys who have potential helium show it for a couple months of what is hopefully a normal milb season. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 9:54:22 GMT -5
Since the national rankings don't have a lot to go on and since I believe neither Houck nor Dalbec will exhaust rookie consideration, Houck, Dalbec and the new additions could propel us from bottom third to top third organizations. This seems aggressive, and I don't think those two are going to move the dial much. Houck will have made 3 starts, which isn't a big sample obviously, and Dalbec, for all of the power he's shown, is still striking out close to half of the time, which isn't remotely sustainable. I do think the system is a bit underrated and the additions certainly help somewhat, but the additions are all more in the 11-20 range (I'd expect something like that on the Osich return as well, hopefully, but it might be a bit less than that). The main knock on the system has been at the top, not in its depth. I would expect a slower climb starting next summer after they add a top 10 at least, and most likely a top 3, draft pick, and the guys who have potential helium show it for a couple months of what is hopefully a normal milb season. The thing is, with a shortened season and no minors to look at, and five player draft, most of the other teams have already promoted players that will no longer be eligible as prospects but the Sox haven't. That wasn't the case at the mid season rankings. LOL, I don't envy you guys for the season ending rankings, Houck should be an interesting placement. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 10:15:59 GMT -5
For Houck I would say that if the Pitching Ninja knows, all of baseball knows.
For Dalbec, if you accept the SSS K rates, you also have to accept the 38th ranked wRC+ in the majors for players with 50 or more PA.
And both of them are still prospects.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2020 11:22:50 GMT -5
For Houck I would say that if the Pitching Ninja knows, all of baseball knows. For Dalbec, if you accept the SSS K rates, you also have to accept the 38th ranked wRC+ in the majors for players with 50 or more PA. And both of them are still prospects. K rate is the single stat that stabilizes most quickly. At 67 PAs it's still not that big a sample, but it is actually more significant than his wRC+. And when you see that he has only a .262 BA despite a .409 BABIP, and that he has a history of high strikeout rates in the minors... well, suffice it to say I don't think Dalbec's proven anything yet. The other thing about the Red Sox system moving up in the rankings is that the rankings are a zero-sum game; other teams have no doubt had some guys move up too. Just in terms of the draft, for instance, one-third of MLB teams added a top-10 draft pick this year, whereas the Red Sox added... Nick Yorke. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 11:36:06 GMT -5
For Houck I would say that if the Pitching Ninja knows, all of baseball knows. For Dalbec, if you accept the SSS K rates, you also have to accept the 38th ranked wRC+ in the majors for players with 50 or more PA. And both of them are still prospects. K rate is the single stat that stabilizes most quickly. At 67 PAs it's still not that big a sample, but it is actually more significant than his wRC+. And when you see that he has only a .262 BA despite a .409 BABIP, and that he has a history of high strikeout rates in the minors... well, suffice it to say I don't think Dalbec's proven anything yet. The other thing about the Red Sox system moving up in the rankings is that the rankings are a zero-sum game; other teams have no doubt had some guys move up too. Just in terms of the draft, for instance, one-third of MLB teams added a top-10 draft pick this year, whereas the Red Sox added... Nick Yorke. They are both still prospects. The Red Sox haven't graduated any prospects this year yet there are tons of rookies across the rest of baseball who will graduate. Look at last years Top 100, a very high % have exhausted their rookie status. There are no minor league games to get a gage on anybody. These two prospects are literally the only Red Sox prospects getting coverage. |
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2020 11:36:56 GMT -5
For Houck I would say that if the Pitching Ninja knows, all of baseball knows. For Dalbec, if you accept the SSS K rates, you also have to accept the 38th ranked wRC+ in the majors for players with 50 or more PA. And both of them are still prospects. K rate is the single stat that stabilizes most quickly. At 67 PAs it's still not that big a sample, but it is actually more significant than his wRC+. And when you see that he has only a .262 BA despite a .409 BABIP, and that he has a history of high strikeout rates in the minors... well, suffice it to say I don't think Dalbec's proven anything yet. The other thing about the Red Sox system moving up in the rankings is that the rankings are a zero-sum game; other teams have no doubt had some guys move up too. Just in terms of the draft, for instance, one-third of MLB teams added a top-10 draft pick this year, whereas the Red Sox added... Nick Yorke. Fair enough, but on the flip side, we're not graduating any prospects of note (Dalbec and Houck won't meet rookie requirements), whereas most teams have graduated at least one including a number of systems' top prospects (e.g., Luis Robert, Gavin Lux, Jesus Luzardo, Dustin May, Alec Bohm, Kyle Lewis, etc.). Also, when Yorke bats .360 next year in Low-A with a .450 OBP, he'll move up the prospect rankings.  |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 11:59:36 GMT -5
I follow the Pitching Ninja pretty religiously. Many of the people that follow him or comment to his tweets are a very impressive group of people. The Pitching Ninja does not specifically cover anyone with mid rotation stuff. The 5 pitch thingy that he does and just did on Houck is pretty much reserved for guys that are pitching like "aces". If Houck finishes the season like he started it, he is going to get major national attention. It's not a statistics question, it's a stuff question.
As a reference, I say that thinking two weeks ago that ranked 10th in our system seemed appropriate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2020 12:53:16 GMT -5
I follow the Pitching Ninja pretty religiously. Many of the people that follow him or comment to his tweets are a very impressive group of people. The Pitching Ninja does not specifically cover anyone with mid rotation stuff. The 5 pitch thingy that he does and just did on Houck is pretty much reserved for guys that are pitching like "aces". If Houck finishes the season like he started it, he is going to get major national attention. It's not a statistics question, it's a stuff question. As a reference, I say that thinking two weeks ago that ranked 10th in our system seemed appropriate. But here's the thing: you're acting like nobody knew Houck had a nasty slider or that Dalbec had double-plus raw two months ago. They did. Houck's prime development point was how he was going to handle LHH. He has thrown 9 splitters in two starts and maybe one looked good. He's faced 14 LHH in the majors, and while they're hitting just .167/.286/.250 against him, that's twice as good as how RHH are hitting against him (.048/.231/.048 - gross!), which makes me think when there's some regression to the mean, we'll have to see how far the LHH numbers come up. And as for the Pitching Ninja thing, I don't agree at all that means anything - one of his darlings in the past was Blake Treinen, who is now just a good but not great setup man. Nasty pitches does not an ace make. (To be clear, Pitching Ninja is one of the best things to happen to baseball in the last few years.) Dalbec had to answer how the hit tool would actualize in terms of his getting to his power. That is still a VERY open question. Only one hitter in baseball who got more than 100 PA (admittedly completely random number) in 2019 struck out more than 40% of the time, and that's Keon Broxton who is very fast and who has spent all of this year at Milwaukee's ATS. I think he needs to cut his K rate by 10 percentage points, roughly, in order to hit sustainably well enough to stay in the lineup. Otherwise for every bomb-show he puts on over a short stretch, you're going to get longer stretches in which he's going 0-for every night that cancel them out. He's already had stretches of 0-for-14 with 9 K's and 2-for-15 with 10 K's to go with the bonkers 9-for-21 with 5 HR and a 2B (and 9 K's) stretch. That kind of yo-yoing doesn't sustain over larger sample sizes, and he needs to work to make it the latter (or something closer to it) that sticks for longer. Now, I'm not saying that there's no reason either player can't make these adjustments! I'm just saying that I don't think either has done enough that they're going to move the dial THAT much. For example, I'm pretty sure I'm not moving either in my season-end rankings (although Houck vs. Ward will be an interesting thing to look at... we'll have to see if there are reports on Ward from Instructs). I think you're interpreting what they've done as moving the needle way, way more than either has. People who do things like rank minor league systems knew these players, and I don't think Dalbec hitting bombs or Houck getting featured on Pitching Ninja has changed absolutely anything. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 13:19:19 GMT -5
Did we know about Houck's tunneling the 2 seamer and slider ? Did we know that he wasn't going to need the splitter ? To a much lesser extent in importance, did we know Dalbec would display in game power at the major league level ? These are still prospects in a world where multiple prospects have graduated.
As far as Houck is concerned, methinks that if you or SPs ranking doesn't dramatically change you will be about the only one but we will see.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 22, 2020 14:14:48 GMT -5
Even without the minors this year, like Ray, I think this has been a great year for the farm. Tanner is making the Sox entire top 10 look good. Groome is doing well at the ATS against older competition. Abbott is gushing about Mata as maybe our top prospect. Dalbec is must see TV. Duran's ATS homer in that thread made me think of Ellsbury. I wonder if the Sox system is not currently slighted in national rankings. I can't help but remember BA's rankings in the 2000's when the Sox had the farm that would be number one in win shares being ranked in the 20's. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2006-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/It is still good to hear grounded analysis from Chris and Ian that keep us from getting too irrationally exuberant and I think bring respect to this site. |
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Post by unitspin on Sept 22, 2020 16:09:40 GMT -5
I think the soxs prospects have been getting underrated for the last couple years and that's fine. It will not change these guys contributing in the near future. Personally I was not extremely high on houck but I have been impressed if he turned into a solid starter for us it would not surprise me now. Before he sat as a long reliever type for me but maybe his stuff plays in the bigs. If the sox after the next draft do not have at least 3-4 prospects in the top 100 I would be pretty surprised though. All I know is in the next two years we have alot of young guys working their way into the lineup and if the national guys do not start to give props for it the team on the field will it take over for us.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2020 16:10:09 GMT -5
Did we know about Houck's tunneling the 2 seamer and slider ? Did we know that he wasn't going to need the splitter ? To a much lesser extent in importance, did we know Dalbec would display in game power at the major league level ? These are still prospects in a world where multiple prospects have graduated. As far as Houck is concerned, methinks that if you or SPs ranking doesn't dramatically change you will be about the only one but we will see. On your questions: Yes, this isn't the revelation you or others such as Eric are treating it as. Disagree with the premise that he doesn't need the splitter, wholeheartedly. This is the SSS issue - you're making a conclusion based on two games in which he has faced 14 LHH. Yes, most certainly we did. The question is whether he still will when the league catches up to him. Perhaps the following will illustrate my point: Bobby Dalbec through 17 games: .262/.328/.639, 7 HR, 5 BB, 32 K in 67 PA Michael Chavis through 17 games: .293/.423/.638, 6 HR, 12 BB, 19 K in 71 PA I haven't found quite as stark an example on Houck, but Casey Kelly threw 6 shutout innings in his debut and Henry Owens through an 8-inning gem in his fourth start. Is my point Houck and Dalbec suck? Course not. Is my point that we know only very little more than we did two months ago. With Houck, there are a lot of positives, but I guarantee you that Houck isn't moving way up prospect lists based on 3 starts (and let's let him make the third start too). Are you going to expect everyone to drop him if he gets shelled in his last start? Of course not, it's one game - so why are we changing everything because of two positive games? With Dalbec, the power has been really nice, but I'm still extremely concerned about the hit tool. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2020 17:39:42 GMT -5
BS on your first answer.
The splitter would be nice but not necessary.
There's a difference between thinking something will happen and having it happen.
Dalbec's performance won't net him a Top 100 but it has at least bumped his stock.
For Houck, you are leaning on stats when we have data. I don't think clubs do that and annalists lean heavily on contacts in the various organizations. Speier who pretty much makes up the list for BA just wrote about Houck today. Do you think he's likely to forget before he makes out his ranking ?
We'll again disagree but, I am willing to bet you a dozen donuts to a person in need that Houck is a Top50 prospect.
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Post by beantown on Sept 22, 2020 21:12:26 GMT -5
Did we know about Houck's tunneling the 2 seamer and slider ? Did we know that he wasn't going to need the splitter ? To a much lesser extent in importance, did we know Dalbec would display in game power at the major league level ? These are still prospects in a world where multiple prospects have graduated. As far as Houck is concerned, methinks that if you or SPs ranking doesn't dramatically change you will be about the only one but we will see. On your questions: Yes, this isn't the revelation you or others such as Eric are treating it as. Disagree with the premise that he doesn't need the splitter, wholeheartedly. This is the SSS issue - you're making a conclusion based on two games in which he has faced 14 LHH. Yes, most certainly we did. The question is whether he still will when the league catches up to him. Perhaps the following will illustrate my point: Bobby Dalbec through 17 games: .262/.328/.639, 7 HR, 5 BB, 32 K in 67 PA Michael Chavis through 17 games: .293/.423/.638, 6 HR, 12 BB, 19 K in 71 PA I haven't found quite as stark an example on Houck, but Casey Kelly threw 6 shutout innings in his debut and Henry Owens through an 8-inning gem in his fourth start. Is my point Houck and Dalbec suck? Course not. Is my point that we know only very little more than we did two months ago. With Houck, there are a lot of positives, but I guarantee you that Houck isn't moving way up prospect lists based on 3 starts (and let's let him make the third start too). Are you going to expect everyone to drop him if he gets shelled in his last start? Of course not, it's one game - so why are we changing everything because of two positive games? With Dalbec, the power has been really nice, but I'm still extremely concerned about the hit tool. It’s an important set of stats to bring up between Chavis and Dalbec. This might be old school of me, but in this case there might be something to be said for the eye test. Chavis is always up there taking huge hacks for the fences, with significant length in the swing vs. Dalbec with that smooth “easy power” stroke. The stats don’t bear it out yet, but something about Bobby’s hit profile seems to have less question marks. Just one man’s take (and likely some wishful thinking). For the record, not suggesting it’s even an average hit tool. Just that he looks like a guy more likely to hit his weight than Chavis. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2020 22:02:05 GMT -5
BS on your first answer. The splitter would be nice but not necessary. There's a difference between thinking something will happen and having it happen. Dalbec's performance won't net him a Top 100 but it has at least bumped his stock. For Houck, you are leaning on stats when we have data. I don't think clubs do that and annalists lean heavily on contacts in the various organizations. Speier who pretty much makes up the list for BA just wrote about Houck today. Do you think he's likely to forget before he makes out his ranking ? We'll again disagree but, I am willing to bet you a dozen donuts to a person in need that Houck is a Top50 prospect. 1) Dalbec was already a BA Top 100 prospect. Maybe the issue is you were underrating how he was thought of previously? 2) What stats am I leaning on for Houck? I have said the stats show he's been very good, but there's reason to think he's going to regress to the mean because he's not showing that he has any way to attack LHH yet. The suggestion that he needs the splitter and improved glove-side command of the 4 seam FB is literally from the team. Paul Abbott, for example, has said that to the media. They stacked the lineup with LHH against him in Pawtucket so he could practice facing them. The very article by Alex that you refer to talks about all of this. YOU SAID ALL OF THIS YOURSELF, then Eric threw some numbers at you and suddenly you think Houck's a future ace or something? I'm not sure. 3) Alex literally does BA's list, FYI, subject to potentially limited editorial tweaking. And you clearly haven't read the article he wrote, which sums up with the following: "While Houck’s first two outings — 11 innings, no earned runs, three hits allowed, 11 strikeouts — have offered a solid foundation, there’s a long line of pitchers who dazzled through two starts then disappeared thereafter. 4) I'm quite comfortable with my efforts working on pro bono cases helping those in need. More than happy to make a one-month avatar bet on Houck not being a top 50 prospect though. That's insanity. Winner's selection must be within forum ground rules and subject to approval by a third poster we agree on. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2020 0:45:43 GMT -5
Was and is are two different things. When he was bottom of the top100, he was our #2 prospect. In the interim he's gone to being our #6 prospect. If he's near the Top 100, doesn't that say a lot about those ahead of him ? (which was my original point)
I'm pretty sure that I posted the Pitching Ninja overlay prior to seeing any of eric's comments. I am talking about pitch quality, you are talking about appearances. If he needs the splitter so badly, why isn't he throwing more of them ?
I won't do an avatar or big money bet. Box of donuts is easy. You want a MAGA avatar ?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2020 9:10:11 GMT -5
I was thinking something harmless like superimposing your head on the amazing photo of Eric with his broadsword from ESPN the Magazine (with his permission of course), but whatever man.
I don't really get out of the house much at this point because of quarantine so both getting and giving the box of donuts is a problem. $25 Jimmy Fund donation?
And Houck's not throwing the splitter more because he's clearly not comfortable with it yet.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 23, 2020 10:05:04 GMT -5
I was thinking something harmless like superimposing your head on the amazing photo of Eric with his broadsword from ESPN the Magazine (with his permission of course), but whatever man. I don't really get out of the house much at this point because of quarantine so both getting and giving the box of donuts is a problem. $25 Jimmy Fund donation? And Houck's not throwing the splitter more because he's clearly not comfortable with it yet. I didn't even know ESPN had a magazine so I have no clue what you are referring to but, $25 to the Jimmy Fund works for me. Hopefully you aren't going to still be in quarantine come January for BA's top 100, so good luck there. ADD: It would have been Krispy Creams here, the Dunkin Donuts in the Philippines are the pits. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2020 10:15:24 GMT -5
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