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Let’s discuss the Red Sox horrendous pitching
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 23, 2020 1:13:32 GMT -5
For me, I am holding off until after the trade deadline and I am still targeting 2022. The entire situation could change very rapidly here.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 11:32:04 GMT -5
So -- we are living on a prayer, right? The bold I highlighted from your quote above sound like prayers. You can't look at a thing when it comes to pitching and say "I can count on this," right? Is there even one pitcher that's a lock to be good? Or a good chance to be good in 2021 or 2022? I mean, put that way, sure, game to game an arm can simply explode. So projections are probably informed guesses. I don’t think it is absurd to think Sale can be, say, 85% of his prime. That’s a very good pitcher. I hope ERod’s condition is temporary. If it is, why wouldn’t he be good in 2021/2022? Eovaldi... well, he’s barely good now, so... same? Anyway, I don’t think they can even be good next year. But 2022? I don’t see prayers as necessary. A good (albeit old) FA class, Mata and Groome, maybe, one of these new guys... there are arms in the mix that could at least make a decent staff. I don't think Sale will be the same once he loses his fastball. He'll be at best just a bit above average. If he doesn't lose his fastball- fine. But he'll be 33 with the same violent delivery with the same skinny frame. I don't know how to rate "85%." Some pitchers once they lose one type of pitch, they change dramatically then they have to learn a new style. Further, Sale has had a history of wearing down even with the White Sox - when he was young. I think there is a lot of hope here rather than locked in "I know I can count on him." I " hope" his condition is temporary too. But it's his heart. That's a big thing. IMO there is too much " hope" rather than "I know." |
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 11:45:23 GMT -5
I mean, put that way, sure, game to game an arm can simply explode. So projections are probably informed guesses. I don’t think it is absurd to think Sale can be, say, 85% of his prime. That’s a very good pitcher. I hope ERod’s condition is temporary. If it is, why wouldn’t he be good in 2021/2022? Eovaldi... well, he’s barely good now, so... same? Anyway, I don’t think they can even be good next year. But 2022? I don’t see prayers as necessary. A good (albeit old) FA class, Mata and Groome, maybe, one of these new guys... there are arms in the mix that could at least make a decent staff. I don't think Sale will be the same once he loses his fastball. He'll be at best just a bit above average. If he doesn't lose his fastball- fine. But he'll be 33 with the same violent delivery with the same skinny frame. I don't know how to rate "85%." Some pitchers once they lose one type of pitch, they change dramatically then they have to learn a new style. Further, Sale has had a history of wearing down even with the White Sox - when he was young. I think there is a lot of hope here rather than locked in "I know I can count on him." I " hope" his condition is temporary too. But it's his heart. That's a big thing. IMO there is too much " hope" rather than "I know." I agree with this, actually. When I say 85% I just mean, well, something like you say: a bit above average, though I’m optimistic that a guy with a good mix, a good mind, and good control can adjust to diminished velocity and be a wellabove average pitcher — say a very solid 3? Price adjusted to lost velocity with worse secondaries. But I am with you that they cannot count on a 1-2 Sale ever again. I guess I just figure if you need 1-5, he will fill one of those slots quite well. I believe ERod will, too. And, er, Eovaldi. If he’s getting paid anyway! That may leave the 1-2 TBD... sure. |
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 12:02:38 GMT -5
I guess I got to pray. Sale is going to be 33 and I suspect his fastball velocity is going to be down. ERod has a heart condition. Id be surprised if he ever approaches being "good" again. I suspect Eovalid's fastball will lower in 2022 and overall won't be that good when 2022 comes around. Maybe he won't be bad -- if healthy. I just think expecting two out of of 3 is going to be a prayer. You base these Sale and ERod predictions on what exactly? I'd assume Sale's velocity goes up from 2019 levels. Heck a lot of guys come back throwing harder. John Lackey threw harder than ever after TJ surgery. ERod had inflammation around his heart. Common after having bad infections and isn't a long-term type thing. Things might not turn out good, that's true for any player, especially pitchers. Yet it isn't some crazy long shot type thing either. A 33 year old who had a history even with the White Sox of wearing down as season progressed. A player's slight build along with a violent delivery. Combine that with not all players get better -- I think it adds up. As for ERod I'm skeptical about what you're saying as "common." This isn't common. A comment below made in the link-- He has "myocarditis." www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/""This particular virus causes more problems with the heart than any other virus so that's why we're being particularly careful," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "That's why we're being more conservative in terms of our recommendations for return to play. We have data from hospitalized patients that show between seven and 33 percent of people will have some cardiac injury after getting COVID-19."As it is he was a good starter but not a great one. If you think 7% or less and he is going to bounce back fine-- okay. I don't. Here's why-- **Here is another comment about myocarditis from the article above: "If you have myocarditis, exercise actually makes the disease worse," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "So it increases the viral replication and it increases the likelihood of dangerous rhythms of the heart and sudden cardiac arrest."
I don't see this as good. I don't think 7% applies here. |
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 23, 2020 12:10:14 GMT -5
You base these Sale and ERod predictions on what exactly? I'd assume Sale's velocity goes up from 2019 levels. Heck a lot of guys come back throwing harder. John Lackey threw harder than ever after TJ surgery. ERod had inflammation around his heart. Common after having bad infections and isn't a long-term type thing. Things might not turn out good, that's true for any player, especially pitchers. Yet it isn't some crazy long shot type thing either. A 33 year old who had a history even with the White Sox of wearing down as season progressed. A player's slight build along with a violent delivery. Combine that with not all players get better -- I think it adds up. As for ERod I'm skeptical about what you're saying as "common." This isn't common. A comment below made in the link-- He has "myocarditis." www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/""This particular virus causes more problems with the heart than any other virus so that's why we're being particularly careful," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "That's why we're being more conservative in terms of our recommendations for return to play. We have data from hospitalized patients that show between seven and 33 percent of people will have some cardiac injury after getting COVID-19."As it is he was a good starter but not a great one. If you think 7% or less and he is going to bounce back fine-- okay. I don't. Here's why-- **Here is another comment about myocarditis from the article above: "If you have myocarditis, exercise actually makes the disease worse," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "So it increases the viral replication and it increases the likelihood of dangerous rhythms of the heart and sudden cardiac arrest."
I don't see this as good. I don't think 7% applies here. Why if this is a mild case diagnosis? In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months. |
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Post by unitspin on Aug 23, 2020 12:29:24 GMT -5
Yanks have to reset the cap next year correct? If thats the case sale, erod, nathan, Perez and hopefully Mata. Is better then what the yanks are going to be putting together. That is all continue the sky is falling down as we sit with the most titles since 2000. As well bloom has added perez and valdez for limited money your best starter and relief pitcher this season. Continue crying.....
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2020 12:33:26 GMT -5
You base these Sale and ERod predictions on what exactly? I'd assume Sale's velocity goes up from 2019 levels. Heck a lot of guys come back throwing harder. John Lackey threw harder than ever after TJ surgery. ERod had inflammation around his heart. Common after having bad infections and isn't a long-term type thing. Things might not turn out good, that's true for any player, especially pitchers. Yet it isn't some crazy long shot type thing either. A 33 year old who had a history even with the White Sox of wearing down as season progressed. A player's slight build along with a violent delivery. Combine that with not all players get better -- I think it adds up. As for ERod I'm skeptical about what you're saying as "common." This isn't common. A comment below made in the link-- He has "myocarditis." www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/""This particular virus causes more problems with the heart than any other virus so that's why we're being particularly careful," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "That's why we're being more conservative in terms of our recommendations for return to play. We have data from hospitalized patients that show between seven and 33 percent of people will have some cardiac injury after getting COVID-19."As it is he was a good starter but not a great one. If you think 7% or less and he is going to bounce back fine-- okay. I don't. Here's why-- **Here is another comment about myocarditis from the article above: "If you have myocarditis, exercise actually makes the disease worse," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "So it increases the viral replication and it increases the likelihood of dangerous rhythms of the heart and sudden cardiac arrest."
I don't see this as good. I don't think 7% applies here. Go read some TJ reports, it's like 85-90% he bounces back to what he was. Those are facts. You get myocarditis just goes away right? It's not a long-term type thing like you're saying. It's fairly common in people, most don't even know they have it. Bad case of flu that takes you months to feel normal again. Those stats include this and doesn't mean long-term, just they can have short-term issues. |
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 12:56:44 GMT -5
A 33 year old who had a history even with the White Sox of wearing down as season progressed. A player's slight build along with a violent delivery. Combine that with not all players get better -- I think it adds up. As for ERod I'm skeptical about what you're saying as "common." This isn't common. A comment below made in the link-- He has "myocarditis." www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/""This particular virus causes more problems with the heart than any other virus so that's why we're being particularly careful," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "That's why we're being more conservative in terms of our recommendations for return to play. We have data from hospitalized patients that show between seven and 33 percent of people will have some cardiac injury after getting COVID-19."As it is he was a good starter but not a great one. If you think 7% or less and he is going to bounce back fine-- okay. I don't. Here's why-- **Here is another comment about myocarditis from the article above: "If you have myocarditis, exercise actually makes the disease worse," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "So it increases the viral replication and it increases the likelihood of dangerous rhythms of the heart and sudden cardiac arrest."
I don't see this as good. I don't think 7% applies here. Why if this is a mild case diagnosis? In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery. Myocarditis treatment focuses on the cause and the symptoms, such as heart failure. In mild cases, persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months. The poster umass asked me why was I skeptical. OFC I'm not a DR. I Just provided him with a quote from a DR that myocarditis for an athlete is not good. I provided a quote. And from what I read myocarditis is not mild. Where are you getting information regarding your last paragraph. I'd like to be optimistic. Is it possible it can be mild provided the person does not go through a rigorous exercise plan? Here is another article -- so after readign the quoted part belwo can you tell me what "mild" means in rleation to COVID 19? www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29633697/heart-condition-linked-covid-19-fuels-power-5-concern-season-viability""But there have been no specific studies of COVID-related myocarditis on college-age adults or athletes. "I've heard about a handful of cases between some of the bigger schools," he said, but said he was not aware of any cases specifically in the Pac-12. "Whether or not it's 1% or 10%, it's still important.""So you could understand my skepticism that an athlete who may exercise is not good for this virus? I don't trust what "mild" means as the article I previously provided mentions making things worse with exercise. For me the mention of "COVID" and "myocarditis" and "exercise makes it worse" does not seem to equal "mild." I take it you are referring to the DR Pete Dean comment in this article? But he hasn't diagnosed anyone with COVID who had myocarditis. So what good is his comment? I want to make it clear I am not "arguing." |
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 13:04:12 GMT -5
A 33 year old who had a history even with the White Sox of wearing down as season progressed. A player's slight build along with a violent delivery. Combine that with not all players get better -- I think it adds up. As for ERod I'm skeptical about what you're saying as "common." This isn't common. A comment below made in the link-- He has "myocarditis." www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/sports-cardiologist-explains-why-athletes-with-covid-19-symptoms-need-cardiac-testing-before-playing/""This particular virus causes more problems with the heart than any other virus so that's why we're being particularly careful," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "That's why we're being more conservative in terms of our recommendations for return to play. We have data from hospitalized patients that show between seven and 33 percent of people will have some cardiac injury after getting COVID-19."As it is he was a good starter but not a great one. If you think 7% or less and he is going to bounce back fine-- okay. I don't. Here's why-- **Here is another comment about myocarditis from the article above: "If you have myocarditis, exercise actually makes the disease worse," Dr. Phelan told CBS Sports. "So it increases the viral replication and it increases the likelihood of dangerous rhythms of the heart and sudden cardiac arrest."
I don't see this as good. I don't think 7% applies here. Go read some TJ reports, it's like 85-90% he bounces back to what he was. Those are facts. You get myocarditis just goes away right? It's not a long-term type thing like you're saying. It's fairly common in people, most don't even know they have it. Bad case of flu that takes you months to feel normal again. Those stats include this and doesn't mean long-term, just they can have short-term issues. I'm not going to go tit-for-tat with you. If you want to lump in every player citing those stats who had the surgery vs a 33 year old (in 2022) who has had issues ever since he was very young wearing down with that type of violent delivery -- you can. I won't. |
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 13:08:15 GMT -5
Yanks have to reset the cap next year correct? If thats the case sale, erod, nathan, Perez and hopefully Mata. Is better then what the yanks are going to be putting together. That is all continue the sky is falling down as we sit with the most titles since 2000. As well bloom has added perez and valdez for limited money your best starter and relief pitcher this season. Continue crying..... Are you suggesting that the Red Sox are going to be better than the Yanks next year? |
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 13:10:17 GMT -5
Go read some TJ reports, it's like 85-90% he bounces back to what he was. Those are facts. You get myocarditis just goes away right? It's not a long-term type thing like you're saying. It's fairly common in people, most don't even know they have it. Bad case of flu that takes you months to feel normal again. Those stats include this and doesn't mean long-term, just they can have short-term issues. I'm not going to go tit-for-tat with you. If you want to lump in every player citing those stats who had the surgery vs a 33 year old (in 2022) who has had issues ever since he was very young wearing down with that type of violent delivery -- you can. I won't. Thing is... those previous issues, which we are all aware of, didn’t stop him from being an elite pitcher. So the question is health. If he gets his full stuff back and has all the pre-injury issues, who isn’t psyched for the 2017-2018 Sale? C’mon. Sale was not the A++ workhorse HOF #1 like a Clemens or Halliday or Verlander. He was a “mere” A+ dominant starter. So this seems like a non-debate. Comes down to the elbow (and... gulp... shoulder). By the way: Sale last year was not worthless. He was not *Chris Sale* but the worst we’ve seen of him remains a legit starter. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2020 13:26:08 GMT -5
Go read some TJ reports, it's like 85-90% he bounces back to what he was. Those are facts. You get myocarditis just goes away right? It's not a long-term type thing like you're saying. It's fairly common in people, most don't even know they have it. Bad case of flu that takes you months to feel normal again. Those stats include this and doesn't mean long-term, just they can have short-term issues. I'm not going to go tit-for-tat with you. If you want to lump in every player citing those stats who had the surgery vs a 33 year old (in 2022) who has had issues ever since he was very young wearing down with that type of violent delivery -- you can. I won't. Well that delivery injured his elbow, which many predicted. Not sure how that changes TJ outcomes. You keep bringing up age, yet he'll be well rested with a healthy elbow. Even a negative view still has him being a decent pitcher more often than not. You really think there's a zero percent chance he's the same guy when he comes back? Him wearing down is a totally different issue. www.healthline.com/health/heart-disease/myocarditis#outlookGo look at the outcome most recover fully with no long-term issues. |
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Post by unitspin on Aug 23, 2020 14:34:52 GMT -5
Yanks have to reset the cap next year correct? If thats the case sale, erod, nathan, Perez and hopefully Mata. Is better then what the yanks are going to be putting together. That is all continue the sky is falling down as we sit with the most titles since 2000. As well bloom has added perez and valdez for limited money your best starter and relief pitcher this season. Continue crying..... Are you suggesting that the Red Sox are going to be better than the Yanks next year? Nope, never said that. As I stated yanks have to reset the cap and are losing three of their sp and have no-one to fill in. With raises coming to some of their players only way to reset is to put a worse rotation together then the red sox that's all. The sky does not look like its falling from where I'm sitting. Faith in bloom is all. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 14:45:07 GMT -5
Are you suggesting that the Red Sox are going to be better than the Yanks next year? Nope, never said that. As I stated yanks have to reset the cap and are losing three of their sp and have no-one to fill in. With raises coming to some of their players only way to reset is to put a worse rotation together then the red sox that's all. The sky does not look like its falling from where I'm sitting. Faith in bloom is all. Alas, the Sox aren’t only chasing the Yankees. And the Yankees can probably gave a team ERA of about 6 if their lineup is healthy and still be really good. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 23, 2020 14:50:09 GMT -5
Nope, never said that. As I stated yanks have to reset the cap and are losing three of their sp and have no-one to fill in. With raises coming to some of their players only way to reset is to put a worse rotation together then the red sox that's all. The sky does not look like its falling from where I'm sitting. Faith in bloom is all. Alas, the Sox aren’t only chasing the Yankees. And the Yankees can probably gave a team ERA of about 6 if their lineup is healthy and still be really good. That's a huge issue for them though, they can't seem to stay healthy. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 14:54:32 GMT -5
This is pretty cool. I decided to figure out how to best predict RA or ERA from K%, BB% (including HBP, excluding IBB), and the rawest Statcast data: Exit Velocity, HardHit%, Barrel%, and Launch Angle. I first tested everything against team ERA and discovered that all of the predictors correlate better to ERA than RA.
The prediction formula has one really interesting feature. BB% and EV are not factors by themselves; they have an interaction, which is to say that if you multiply them together, that's so predictive that the individual numbers don't tell you anything more.
Now, the joker in that deck is that if you're a skilled nibbler like Martin Perez, who limits EV by being willing to walk more batters, that skill doesn't show up at all. The fact is that more walks almost always lead to higher EV. Right now I can't think of any way to identify the exceptions from this data.
If I added swing metrics, that wou;d likely do the trick and should give you a predictor that was that much better. But that's also a huge amount of extra analysis!
So here are the Raw Statcast Projected ERA for everyone so far. Name pERA
Robert Stock 1.53
Phillips Valdez 3.27
Josh Taylor 3.74
Dylan Covey 3.83
Chris Mazza 3.99
Josh Osich 4.19
Brandon Workman 4.25
Heath Hembree 4.31
MLB Average 4.45
Austin Brice 4.56
Zack Godley 4.93
Martin Perez 5.04
Nathan Eovaldi 5.45
Kyle Hart 5.47
Jeffrey Springs 5.75
Marcus Walden 6.36
Ryan Brasier 6.48
Colten Brewer 6.62
Matt Barnes 7.05
Matt Hall 7.17
Ryan Weber 7.20 (3.86 since his recall)
Edit: Zack Godley by appearances:
-0.96 7.67 3.68 8.16 2.89
So the overall 4.93 tells you nothing; it's two outings of 8.04 sandwiched between three of 2.12.
How is Stock looking now? |
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Post by unitspin on Aug 23, 2020 16:01:58 GMT -5
[/quote]
Alas, the Sox aren’t only chasing the Yankees. And the Yankees can probably gave a team ERA of about 6 if their lineup is healthy and still be really good.[/quote]
Yanks have 135 runs so far this year red sox have 129, guess the red sox have a really good lineup as well.
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 16:25:04 GMT -5
Alas, the Sox aren’t only chasing the Yankees. And the Yankees can probably gave a team ERA of about 6 if their lineup is healthy and still be really good.[/quote] Yanks have 135 runs so far this year red sox have 129, guess the red sox have a really good lineup as well.[/quote] In fairness, they have never been full strength. We have been. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2020 17:13:06 GMT -5
Zack Godley [pERA] by appearances:
-0.96 7.67 3.68 8.16 2.89
So the overall 4.93 tells you nothing; it's two outings of 8.04 sandwiched between three of 2.12.
8.88.
On the brighter side, Darwinzon's debut was -2.24.
And Martin Perez now ranks 51st in wOBA among the 150 pitchers with the most BFP.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2020 17:20:03 GMT -5
How is Stock looking now? You can't possibly think that accurately listing a guy who has had one outing at the top of a complete leader board constitutes any statement or opinion about the pitcher's quality or projected performance.
Nor can you possibly be so upset at Stock's outing that your post was motivated by disappointment.
So I regard this as a breach of board decorum.
I've got better things to do.
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 17:54:10 GMT -5
How is Stock looking now? You can't possibly think that accurately listing a guy who has had one outing at the top of a complete leader board constitutes any statement or opinion about the pitcher's quality or projected performance.
Nor can you possibly be so upset at Stock's outing that your post was motivated by disappointment.
So I regard this as a breach of board decorum.
I've got better things to do.
I don’t think it is indecorous to say it is a mistake to try to create formulae for human futures. It is a very Enlightenment endeavor, and I dig the Enlightenment. But there is too much chance and free will involved. People are not machines. It’s why no matter how great everything quantifiable about Clay Buchholz might have said ace, his head said not so fast. ‘Twas Wordsworth said “we murder to dissect.” And I believe Joe Strummer said the future is unwritten. |
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 18:25:29 GMT -5
I'm not going to go tit-for-tat with you. If you want to lump in every player citing those stats who had the surgery vs a 33 year old (in 2022) who has had issues ever since he was very young wearing down with that type of violent delivery -- you can. I won't. Thing is... those previous issues, which we are all aware of, didn’t stop him from being an elite pitcher. So the question is health. If he gets his full stuff back and has all the pre-injury issues, who isn’t psyched for the 2017-2018 Sale? C’mon. Sale was not the A++ workhorse HOF #1 like a Clemens or Halliday or Verlander. He was a “mere” A+ dominant starter. So this seems like a non-debate. Comes down to the elbow (and... gulp... shoulder). By the way: Sale last year was not worthless. He was not *Chris Sale* but the worst we’ve seen of him remains a legit starter. He wasn't an elite pitcher come playoff time. And during 2nd halves of seasons he always struggled the lats several years. And now he'll just be older. When we expect we might put a pretty good team out there at best is 2022. He;'ll be two years older. Tell me why I shouldn't expect a fade as he turns 33? He has faded nearly every year when healthy, hasn't he? Now he gets older with his build and violent delivery I'm going to expect a terrific starter? IMO that's just "hope." Why wouldn't I expect at 33 with his motion and age that he struggles more at this age? He faded because of his body, violent movement, hasn't he? How will that change with age? |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 23, 2020 18:36:50 GMT -5
Chris Sale at 30% health would still be an upgrade over their current rotation.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 18:42:59 GMT -5
Are you suggesting that the Red Sox are going to be better than the Yanks next year? Nope, never said that. As I stated yanks have to reset the cap and are losing three of their sp and have no-one to fill in. With raises coming to some of their players only way to reset is to put a worse rotation together then the red sox that's all. The sky does not look like its falling from where I'm sitting. Faith in bloom is all. I don't understand why you are complaining that some of us are supposedly "crying." If the team isn't projected to be better than Yanks or Rays-- chances aren't so great that they make the playoffs. That warrants complaining. And if you're right the Yanks starting picturing ends up worse - but if they are still better, it still warrants complaining doesn't it? |
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 18:53:53 GMT -5
Thing is... those previous issues, which we are all aware of, didn’t stop him from being an elite pitcher. So the question is health. If he gets his full stuff back and has all the pre-injury issues, who isn’t psyched for the 2017-2018 Sale? C’mon. Sale was not the A++ workhorse HOF #1 like a Clemens or Halliday or Verlander. He was a “mere” A+ dominant starter. So this seems like a non-debate. Comes down to the elbow (and... gulp... shoulder). By the way: Sale last year was not worthless. He was not *Chris Sale* but the worst we’ve seen of him remains a legit starter. He wasn't an elite pitcher come playoff time. And during 2nd halves of seasons he always struggled the lats several years. And now he'll just be older. When we expect we might put a pretty good team out there at best is 2022. He;'ll be two years older. Tell me why I shouldn't expect a fade as he turns 33? He has faded nearly every year when healthy, hasn't he? Now he gets older with his build and violent delivery I'm going to expect a terrific starter? IMO that's just "hope." Why wouldn't I expect at 33 with his motion and age that he struggles more at this age? He faded because of his body, violent movement, hasn't he? How will that change with age? I think you are assuming people are saying he’ll be 26 again. The point to me is that there is pretty solid chance (not mere hope, because there are foundations) for expecting him to be at least a good #3. Even hurt last year, his numbers were not brutal — they were actually pretty good. His post season record is mixed... in 4 starts. Price was a bad post-season pitcher until he wasn’t. Ditto Clemens. The post-season is so odd and so short, it is hard to call a few bad starts a reason to think next time won’t better. Finally, it is true Sale has better first half numbers in his career, but his career second half numbers would bring a smile to my face if it was what he did on returning. 3.33 ERA. 1.12 WHIP. A higher k/9 than his first half average. He hardly falls off a cliff. I guess my point is, who knows? But you make it sound like Chris Sale was ALWAYS a problem, even before his injury. Age and injury may indeed take a toll. But 32/33 is not ancient, and TJ is not that insurmountable. I don’t count him out having a good (not world beating, but good) 2022. |
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