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8/31-9/2 Red Sox vs. Braves Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 31, 2020 22:54:33 GMT -5
LOL, you, the proponent of not counting chickens ? We have 26 man rosters now, there's room for a 1B/3B/DH/PH backup guy in a normal year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 31, 2020 23:05:57 GMT -5
I only ask we play Chavis and Dalbec everyday for the rest of the year. No more making guys lefty specialists and crap like that. Let's try and see what we have even if they strikeout 8 times a game. Though I wouldn't bat them back to back either.
For me with Sluggers like Chavis, Dalbec and Middlebrooks it's all about power and slugging. On base skills add value, make it easier. Yet it's about providing enough value with slugging because they likely won't hit enough. What did in Middlebrooks was his holes were so big it killed his power. He didn't really get worse, he still hit in the minors for years. Yet in the majors his power disappeared. Chavis can strikeout a ton and hit .250 while still be a good hitter, he just needs a .450 slugging or around there.
In Theory Dalbec has a better chance because his on base skills could add a lot of value. Yet he's older and had a stretch of what Chavis is doing now in the minors. It could get bad, yet the key is still his slugging and the guy has tons of power. You'd feel better if he could play 3B and give you value that way.
Let's hope the light comes on for both guys and despite a bunch of strikeouts, they hit for a good amount of power.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2020 23:26:38 GMT -5
LOL, you, the proponent of not counting chickens ? We have 26 man rosters now, there's room for a 1B/3B/DH/PH backup guy in a normal year. Well, I am trying to be positive. I’m actually on record as not being a big believer in Dalbec overall. So if he could have a good stretch and get us, say, a decent pitcher, I’d be pretty stoked. If he kills it, room can always be made. And I’d be stoked. If he is a guy with huge power who can’t make enough contact for it to matter and gets exposed and loses any value, I will be sad.
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Post by rismith on Sept 1, 2020 9:47:36 GMT -5
agree with you Manfred. I hope Bobby can make enough contact to make the K's something we can live with but I have my doubts. He has been age advanced throughout the minors generally but balanced that by having not focused on hitting exclusively in college...now finishing his age 25 season this year in Boston is great but in the minors he K'd at a roughly 30%+ clip. It would be huge for this team for him to show enough in this last month that he has value to either us or another team in the off-season so we have options.
That HR the another was a great story and showed his raw power but he was also late on that swing and looks almost tentative at the plate. Hopefully he settles in and we see what he can do and it ends up being positive!.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 1, 2020 9:59:51 GMT -5
Casas is a better prospect but hardly a sure thing. Anthony Rizzo turned out to be better than Lars Anderson. If Casas forces the issue then you cross that bridge when you get to it. For now, getting Dalbec the reps he needs is important. He feels like he's as much of a known commodity as a prospect can be, right? He's got monster power - if he strikes out at like a 28-30% rate then he's probably a .240 hitter and legit player, and if he strikes out at like a 35-40% rate then he's probably a .190 hitter and not good enough, and those are basically the range of outcomes.
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Post by rismith on Sept 1, 2020 11:02:19 GMT -5
Agreed JD. Good summary and that range of outcomes feels like the right range.
What is your view on Ock? Watched a few of the SIM games and he got some LF time and looked ok. Seems like a good platoon partner if they had a versatile RH hitter to pair him with....
Might be just me but feels like an upside would be some Brian Daubach like years...?
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Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 1, 2020 11:27:14 GMT -5
Stop counting out Dalbec after literally 8 ABs. Yes, he’s struck out six times. But it’s an 8 AB stretch. Give the kid some time to adjust. He just got called up. More importantly, he hasn’t looked lost at the plate. He’s not setting the world on fire but he’s not being hopelessly overmatched either. This s so true. so many good solid hitters are just now starting to hit their stride because if the strange season. Dalbec is just starting to get his timing down. Patience is all we can hope for right now. Look how long it took Devers to have any semblance of a hitter. this season is just to take a look at what we have going fwd. I was struck when Jerry Remy said that Arauz was our 2nd baseman for the future. has he ever heard of Jeter Downs?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 1, 2020 12:13:17 GMT -5
He's also getting the special kind of love offered up to rookies by ML umpires. He's been caught looking at marginal pitches for 3rd strikes which is unacceptable to the old guard in blue. We do want to give him a little time - like more than 8 PAs - before dropping the hammer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2020 16:46:04 GMT -5
This is almost spooky:
Name PA Events EV maxEV LA Barrels Barrel% HardHit HardHit% Xander Bogaerts 133 92 92.6 112.1 11.2 9 .098 38 .413 Rafael Devers 142 93 92.0 112.8 12.4 9 .097 36 .387
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2020 18:16:41 GMT -5
When was the last time I looked at Davenport Peak Translations? Forever.
(For those who forget or who are new to the board, these are from Clay Davenport, original stat guru at BP, and they adjust ml numbers for everything including age relative to level, to get the projected age 27 performance. They are far and away the best available numbers that do this. That they are the only such numbers that have ever been available tells you how challenging this is. In fact, Jed Hoyer named it as the top unsolved problem he was most curious about, back in 2005.
They have a good enough track record that I think they are well worth looking at.)
Dalbec:
.290 .242 .281 (but .287 Salem, .259 Portland) .271 (but .279, .242)
The big improvement repeating AA, sandwiched between the struggles after late-year promotions, suggests that we won't know much until next year.
In comparison, Middlebrooks:
.248 A- .253 A .256 A+ .262 AA/AAA .299 AAA/MLB
.267 ditto
He collapsed after that, of course. His rookie year was a total outlier, and these numbers had his top prospect status before that as somewhat of a a mirage.
Chavis:
.254 R .248 A .243 A (/A+) .291 A+/AA .283 AA(/AAA) just 173 PA .267 AAA/MLB
Triston Casas was .284 last year. Easy question: what other 19 year-old 1B also put up a .284 playing for the same two teams (and that his promotion was mid-season rather than with 2 games left is factored out in these numbers)?
(Hint: exactly a decade previously. Super hint: 3-time All-Star, 34.5 career bWAR.)
Jeter Downs, .264, .266, .286.
Duran, .250, .255 (but .291 with Salem).
Hudson Potts, .255 (A), .280 (A+/AA), .264 (AA).
Jeisson Rosario, .258, .264.
Conner Wong, .265, .250, .263 (A+ / AA)
Chatham's best year since Lowell was last year, and he managed just .240.
Arauz has a career .262 in the minors and has been pretty consistent.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 1, 2020 18:31:53 GMT -5
Ill tell ya how dalbec does, lots of ks and lots of hrs. His average will be low 2s. Although Fenway is a good park for him could help this average. Can we make jd the hitting coach think we would be outstanding in the future in that role.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2020 19:52:52 GMT -5
When was the last time I looked at Davenport Peak Translations? Forever. (For those who forget or who are new to the board, these are from Clay Davenport, original stat guru at BP, and they adjust ml numbers for everything including age relative to level, to get the projected age 27 performance. They are far and away the best available numbers that do this. That they are the only such numbers that have ever been available tells you how challenging this is. In fact, Jed Hoyer named it as the top unsolved problem he was most curious about, back in 2005.
They have a good enough track record that I think they are well worth looking at.)
Dalbec: .290 .242 .281 (but .287 Salem, .259 Portland) .271 (but .279, .242) The big improvement repeating AA, sandwiched between the struggles after late-year promotions, suggests that we won't know much until next year. In comparison, Middlebrooks: .248 A- .253 A .256 A+ .262 AA/AAA .299 AAA/MLB
.267 ditto He collapsed after that, of course. His rookie year was a total outlier, and these numbers had his top prospect status before that as somewhat of a a mirage.
Chavis: .254 R .248 A .243 A (/A+) .291 A+/AA .283 AA(/AAA) just 173 PA .267 AAA/MLB
Triston Casas was .284 last year. Easy question: what other 19 year-old 1B also put up a .284 playing for the same two teams (and that his promotion was mid-season rather than with 2 games left is factored out in these numbers)?
(Hint: exactly a decade previously. Super hint: 3-time All-Star, 34.5 career bWAR.)
Jeter Downs, .264, .266, .286. Duran, .250, .255 (but .291 with Salem). Hudson Potts, .255 (A), .280 (A+/AA), .264 (AA). Jeisson Rosario, .258, .264. Conner Wong, .265, .250, .263 (A+ / AA) Chatham's best year since Lowell was last year, and he managed just .240. Arauz has a career .262 in the minors and has been pretty consistent.
I'm curious, do you have those on Lars Anderson, people keep bring up Lars when they talk about Casas but he never had a 20 HR season let alone one at age 19 or even when he played at Lancaster. I also doubt if he ever had a .284 Davenport. Rizzo on the other hand pretty much excelled at every level with the only blip being the time lost to cancer,
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2020 20:02:50 GMT -5
When was the last time I looked at Davenport Peak Translations? Forever. (For those who forget or who are new to the board, these are from Clay Davenport, original stat guru at BP, and they adjust ml numbers for everything including age relative to level, to get the projected age 27 performance. They are far and away the best available numbers that do this. That they are the only such numbers that have ever been available tells you how challenging this is. In fact, Jed Hoyer named it as the top unsolved problem he was most curious about, back in 2005.
They have a good enough track record that I think they are well worth looking at.)
Dalbec: .290 .242 .281 (but .287 Salem, .259 Portland) .271 (but .279, .242) The big improvement repeating AA, sandwiched between the struggles after late-year promotions, suggests that we won't know much until next year. In comparison, Middlebrooks: .248 A- .253 A .256 A+ .262 AA/AAA .299 AAA/MLB
.267 ditto He collapsed after that, of course. His rookie year was a total outlier, and these numbers had his top prospect status before that as somewhat of a a mirage.
Chavis: .254 R .248 A .243 A (/A+) .291 A+/AA .283 AA(/AAA) just 173 PA .267 AAA/MLB
Triston Casas was .284 last year. Easy question: what other 19 year-old 1B also put up a .284 playing for the same two teams (and that his promotion was mid-season rather than with 2 games left is factored out in these numbers)?
(Hint: exactly a decade previously. Super hint: 3-time All-Star, 34.5 career bWAR.)
Jeter Downs, .264, .266, .286. Duran, .250, .255 (but .291 with Salem). Hudson Potts, .255 (A), .280 (A+/AA), .264 (AA). Jeisson Rosario, .258, .264. Conner Wong, .265, .250, .263 (A+ / AA) Chatham's best year since Lowell was last year, and he managed just .240. Arauz has a career .262 in the minors and has been pretty consistent.
I'm curious, do you have those on Lars Anderson, people keep bring up Lars when they talk about Casas but he never had a 20 HR season let alone one at age 19 or even when he played at Lancaster. I also doubt if he ever had a .284 Davenport. Rizzo on the other hand pretty much excelled at every level with the only blip being the time lost to cancer, I don’t think anyone is bringing up LA as a direct comp so much as a #1 prospect who fell off a cliff. He never hit 20 HRs, but up to age 23, his development was moving quickly and well. Age 20, 18 Hrs in 118 games between A and AA, while batting .317. Age 22 still performing respectably at Pawtucket at -5 years age difference. And Sox call up. And then, by 23, he was yesterday’s news. Maybe there are other lessons to be learned from him. Was he rushed? Did he need more attention mentally? Was he always overrated? I don’t know. But at 20, he looked like a golden child.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2020 20:44:20 GMT -5
I'm curious, do you have those on Lars Anderson, people keep bring up Lars when they talk about Casas but he never had a 20 HR season let alone one at age 19 or even when he played at Lancaster. I also doubt if he ever had a .284 Davenport. Rizzo on the other hand pretty much excelled at every level with the only blip being the time lost to cancer, I don’t think anyone is bringing up LA as a direct comp so much as a #1 prospect who fell off a cliff. He never hit 20 HRs, but up to age 23, his development was moving quickly and well. Age 20, 18 Hrs in 118 games between A and AA, while batting .317. Age 22 still performing respectably at Pawtucket at -5 years age difference. And Sox call up. And then, by 23, he was yesterday’s news. Maybe there are other lessons to be learned from him. Was he rushed? Did he need more attention mentally? Was he always overrated? I don’t know. But at 20, he looked like a golden child. That's why I want to see the Davenports. Don't get me wrong here, I get a lot of these wrong (Bowden, Ceccini scream me, me, me) but I was an early fanboy of Rizzo and now Casas but was never on the Lars bandwagon. I still remember a video of Lars from Lancaster and he looked like a stiff to me, way too mechanical.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2020 20:48:20 GMT -5
I don’t think anyone is bringing up LA as a direct comp so much as a #1 prospect who fell off a cliff. He never hit 20 HRs, but up to age 23, his development was moving quickly and well. Age 20, 18 Hrs in 118 games between A and AA, while batting .317. Age 22 still performing respectably at Pawtucket at -5 years age difference. And Sox call up. And then, by 23, he was yesterday’s news. Maybe there are other lessons to be learned from him. Was he rushed? Did he need more attention mentally? Was he always overrated? I don’t know. But at 20, he looked like a golden child. That's why I want to see the Davenports. Don't get me wrong here, I get a lot of these wrong (Bowden, Ceccini scream me, me, me) but I was an early fanboy of Rizzo and now Casas but was never on the Lars bandwagon. I still remember a video of Lars from Lancaster and he looked like a stiff to me, way too mechanical. I agree. He looked... off. But I have to say that I don’t know if my view is colored by seeing him after he’d crumbled. I was never a Bowden guy. That cock he had in his arm and his whole motion... what was going on there? But pitchers are so tough. They can he cruising through levels and then hit a level where they just aren’t fooling guys anymore.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 1, 2020 20:53:13 GMT -5
I don’t think anyone is bringing up LA as a direct comp so much as a #1 prospect who fell off a cliff. He never hit 20 HRs, but up to age 23, his development was moving quickly and well. Age 20, 18 Hrs in 118 games between A and AA, while batting .317. Age 22 still performing respectably at Pawtucket at -5 years age difference. And Sox call up. And then, by 23, he was yesterday’s news. Maybe there are other lessons to be learned from him. Was he rushed? Did he need more attention mentally? Was he always overrated? I don’t know. But at 20, he looked like a golden child. That's why I want to see the Davenports. Don't get me wrong here, I get a lot of these wrong (Bowden, Ceccini scream me, me, me) but I was an early fanboy of Rizzo and now Casas but was never on the Lars bandwagon. I still remember a video of Lars from Lancaster and he looked like a stiff to me, way too mechanical. I saw Lars taking BP in Ft. Myers with two other players including Josh Reddick.... He had a lazy swing and was the least impressive of all.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2020 20:56:21 GMT -5
I’m not exactly complaining, here... I get it. But this team as it has been fielded today, is pretty much unwatchable. 5-9 is a huge who cares (I know! I know Arauz is Young and could be good... but now? Not enough to he watchable). Starting Weber, bringing in Hart etc etc.
I mean, at least keep Dalbec in!
Sigh. That was all. I know... lots of reasons, etc etc.
Add: and!!! I know... I’m in the tank club. But now that is happening, I hate it. I hate watching a bad, boring team, and I hate the humiliation of being so awful. I have changed my position! Tank for the SECOND pick, but don’t be the worst team!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2020 20:58:32 GMT -5
Also, I don't know if you were here during the Lancaster years (high A) but you can pretty much throw out all hitting data there as meaningless. Anyone that could put a lazy fly ball in the air looked like a promising power hitter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2020 21:04:08 GMT -5
From watching Munoz at the alt site, he's actually a bigger hacker than Peraza. He's not here for plate discipline.
LOL, another Philippines advantage, Zoom classes, I can't watch it live anyways.
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Post by station13 on Sept 1, 2020 21:13:17 GMT -5
Kyle has no Hart.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2020 21:14:35 GMT -5
What a heartless thing to say.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2020 21:23:38 GMT -5
I'm curious, do you have those on Lars Anderson, people keep bring up Lars when they talk about Casas but he never had a 20 HR season let alone one at age 19 or even when he played at Lancaster. I also doubt if he ever had a .284 Davenport. Rizzo on the other hand pretty much excelled at every level with the only blip being the time lost to cancer, I don’t think anyone is bringing up LA as a direct comp so much as a #1 prospect who fell off a cliff. He never hit 20 HRs, but up to age 23, his development was moving quickly and well. Age 20, 18 Hrs in 118 games between A and AA, while batting .317. Age 22 still performing respectably at Pawtucket at -5 years age difference. And Sox call up. And then, by 23, he was yesterday’s news. Maybe there are other lessons to be learned from him. Was he rushed? Did he need more attention mentally? Was he always overrated? I don’t know. But at 20, he looked like a golden child. Lars also played his age 19 season at Greenville, with a late promotion to A+, and had a .272.
The next season he played in a crazy extreme hitting environment in Lancaster, so the park adjustment is less reliable. But he hit even better after adjusting for park and level at Portland, and that was a .289 season.
He went back to Portland and had a .253. Next year he raked there for a few weeks, spent most of the year at Pawtucket, got called up in September, and overall had a .269. He was .277 the next year in AAA and was .265 the following year when he was traded for Stephen Wright. He played a few more years in AAA at a .270 or so level.
Aside from 2008, his bat was projecting as a tick above average MLB starter, which at 1B is second-division MLB starter if you get career luck, and career minor leaguer if you don't.
As to what happened ... here's a bit of an essay by Lars, written for his former manager and close friend Gabe Kapler's blog, while Lars was on the DL while playing for the AAA Iowa Cubs in 2014.
"Walking through a clubhouse looks like a house of horrors for someone in Greenpeace. Faucets are left running with no one near the sink, shower heads washing nothing but the floor. Finding recycling bins? You might as well be looking for a yeti."
Yeah, your typical jock.
Kapler wrote a great essay for WEEI on Lars' makeup after he was released the first time (you can find it, but it's now in an almost unreadable state. I've grabbed it and will post it in the off-topic forum once I've finished cleaning it up.) He was a whip-smart, over-thinking kid who was always the best player on the field but very hard on himself. The first time he struggled in pro ball he lost confidence and couldn't get it back. And this isn't your usual such case; it's a kid precisely specifying "In the most recent past, I don't have the belief in my physical abilities" as his self-diagnosis.
The team was aware of his brilliance and admitted that they had no idea whether it would help or hinder him. Turned out to be the latter, alas.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 1, 2020 21:25:58 GMT -5
I’m not exactly complaining, here... I get it. But this team as it has been fielded today, is pretty much unwatchable. 5-9 is a huge who cares (I know! I know Arauz is Young and could be good... but now? Not enough to he watchable). Starting Weber, bringing in Hart etc etc. I mean, at least keep Dalbec in! Sigh. That was all. I know... lots of reasons, etc etc. Add: and!!! I know... I’m in the tank club. But now that is happening, I hate it. I hate watching a bad, boring team, and I hate the humiliation of being so awful. I have changed my position! Tank for the SECOND pick, but don’t be the worst team! I guess I don't understand. What's the big prize in not being the absolute worst team in the majors? I mean if the choice is between picking 1st or picking 2nd it's a no-brainer, isn't it? You pick first so you get whoever the hell you want. Why would winning one extra totally meaningless game be a bigger prize than picking 1st? I'd rather see the Red Sox get the player they absolutely want rather than settling - especially if they're going to suck THIS bad and be this unwatchable. It's probably all a moot point anyways. Even if the Sox did finish with the worst record, they probably won't get the first pick anyways. They'll combine 2019 somehow and they'll wind up picking 10th or whatever.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2020 21:27:04 GMT -5
I’m not exactly complaining, here... I get it. But this team as it has been fielded today, is pretty much unwatchable. 5-9 is a huge who cares (I know! I know Arauz is Young and could be good... but now? Not enough to he watchable). Starting Weber, bringing in Hart etc etc. I mean, at least keep Dalbec in! Sigh. That was all. I know... lots of reasons, etc etc. Add: and!!! I know... I’m in the tank club. But now that is happening, I hate it. I hate watching a bad, boring team, and I hate the humiliation of being so awful. I have changed my position! Tank for the SECOND pick, but don’t be the worst team! I guess I don't understand. What's the big prize in not being the absolute worst team in the majors? I mean if they choice is between picking 1st or picking 2nd it's a no-brainer, isn't it? You pick first so you get whoever the hell you want. Why would winning one extra totally meaningless game be a bigger prize than picking 1st? I'd rather see the Red Sox get the player they absolutely want rather than settling - especially if they're going to suck THIS bad and be this unwatchable. It's probably all a moot point anyways. Even if the Sox did finish with the worst record, they probably won't get the first pick anyways. They'll combine 2019 somehow and they'll wind up picking 10th or whatever. It’s emmmmmbbbaaarrrassssing!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 1, 2020 21:28:51 GMT -5
I guess I don't understand. What's the big prize in not being the absolute worst team in the majors? I mean if they choice is between picking 1st or picking 2nd it's a no-brainer, isn't it? You pick first so you get whoever the hell you want. Why would winning one extra totally meaningless game be a bigger prize than picking 1st? I'd rather see the Red Sox get the player they absolutely want rather than settling - especially if they're going to suck THIS bad and be this unwatchable. It's probably all a moot point anyways. Even if the Sox did finish with the worst record, they probably won't get the first pick anyways. They'll combine 2019 somehow and they'll wind up picking 10th or whatever. It’s emmmmmbbbaaarrrassssing!! Manfred man - I think you're being blinded by the light! Sorry - just had to say it. Had to scratch that itch.
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