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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 4, 2021 15:02:39 GMT -5
Grichuk is bad.
Just because he's overpaid doesn't mean you're locked into playing him every day. Shouldn't matter unless TOR cares more about saving money than about winning.
Gourriel stays in LF, Teoscar in RF, Springer plays CF every day, JD DH, and Grichuk as the 4th OF or traded. And it's not like JD would be a huge investment for them. Seems like a no-Brainer (henceforth known as a "no-Bonaci") to me.
EDIT: I'm actually afraid to even work out what their batting order would look like...
You have not identified a hole. You're just saying that paying JD 20M in a multi-year deal and Grichuk 10M is better than paying Grichuk 10M and letting all four OF (and others) rotate through DH. The upgrade from Grichuk to an apparently declining JD is not even close to being a no-brainer, given the cost. Who would guarantee money to 2023 JD, much less 2024 JD? The hole is Grichuk. He's been worth 0.5 WAR this year in 454 ABs. That's a gaping hole. He's also 30, so he's not on the upswing, either. JD is averaging 0.5 WAR per month in around the same ABs (492 total).
Could 34-yo JD suddenly fall off a cliff? Sure, but if there was no risk, he'd cost a lot more. Still, lots of DH-only guys have produced well into their late 30s. Could Grichuk suddenly climb up a cliff? I don't think I'd bank on that.
If I'm the Jays, I would gladly pay JD $16-18m (which is my guess for the AAV he'll get) to produce 2.5-3.0 WAR and sit Grichuk's 0.3-0.5 WAR. Heck, JD might even teach Grichuk (and Bichette, and Biggio, and Gurriel, and...) how to hit better. Apparently, you wouldn't pay to fill that Grichuk-sized hole. I guess we agree to disagree.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 4, 2021 15:44:19 GMT -5
Are we sure Perez’s $5.5M team option next year won’t be excercized? He hasn’t been very good this year, but cheap starting pitching depth is always useful and a trade is always an option. First of all, I do not want Perez anywhere near the Sox in 2022. He is a failed starter in 2021. He will not be any better next year. Secondly, with the likes of Pivetta and Houck already in the rotation and Whitlock looking likes he is ready, with Seabold and Crawford looming, all Perez can do is confuse the issue. Thirdly, 5.5 mil does not grow on trees. There are better ways to spend it than on Perez. And fourth, if for some reason, the Sox want a fill in fifth starter by late March, there will almost certainly Perez quality guys available at that time.
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Post by orion09 on Sept 5, 2021 11:28:54 GMT -5
All things being equal, it would seem like offing Perez who has no future in Boston ought to be the choice. With a full roster, we do not need a mop up guy, and with Whitlock, Richards and one of Houck/Pivetta going to the pen, we do not have a long relief issue in the playoffs. I see Houck's future as the current Whitlock role. I'm guessing Houck will be in it (alongside Whitlock) before the end of the month.
It's pretty clear to me that AC is already moving the pitching staff to the rover/piggyback strategy he used in the 2018 playoffs. I like it.
This the same Houck who just threw 5 shutout innings while flashing 4 pitches, and who has a better xwOBA than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta? The Whitlock role is valuable, but if I’m the Red Sox, I’m giving Houck a lot of rope as a starter
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2021 13:08:15 GMT -5
I see Houck's future as the current Whitlock role. I'm guessing Houck will be in it (alongside Whitlock) before the end of the month.
It's pretty clear to me that AC is already moving the pitching staff to the rover/piggyback strategy he used in the 2018 playoffs. I like it.
This the same Houck who just threw 5 shutout innings while flashing 4 pitches, and who has a better xwOBA than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta? The Whitlock role is valuable, but if I’m the Red Sox, I’m giving Houck a lot of rope as a starter Who they then removed after like 65 pitches for a reason. I agree with giving him rope as a starter, I just don’t get how people are still defensive when others call him a probable reliever
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Post by orion09 on Sept 5, 2021 14:41:49 GMT -5
This the same Houck who just threw 5 shutout innings while flashing 4 pitches, and who has a better xwOBA than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta? The Whitlock role is valuable, but if I’m the Red Sox, I’m giving Houck a lot of rope as a starter Who they then removed after like 65 pitches for a reason. I agree with giving him rope as a starter, I just don’t get how people are still defensive when others call him a probable reliever I don’t know about “defensive,” but I don’t agree with the characterization of Houck as probable reliever. To me, based on stuff and results, he’s already good enough to be a backend starter. If he continues to improve his splitter (which has looked better in his last 4 starts), I would project his median outcome as that of a #4 starter with the ceiling of a #2. YMMV
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 5, 2021 19:13:02 GMT -5
You have not identified a hole. You're just saying that paying JD 20M in a multi-year deal and Grichuk 10M is better than paying Grichuk 10M and letting all four OF (and others) rotate through DH. The upgrade from Grichuk to an apparently declining JD is not even close to being a no-brainer, given the cost. Who would guarantee money to 2023 JD, much less 2024 JD? The hole is Grichuk. He's been worth 0.5 WAR this year in 454 ABs. That's a gaping hole. He's also 30, so he's not on the upswing, either. JD is averaging 0.5 WAR per month in around the same ABs (492 total).
Could 34-yo JD suddenly fall off a cliff? Sure, but if there was no risk, he'd cost a lot more. Still, lots of DH-only guys have produced well into their late 30s. Could Grichuk suddenly climb up a cliff? I don't think I'd bank on that.
If I'm the Jays, I would gladly pay JD $16-18m (which is my guess for the AAV he'll get) to produce 2.5-3.0 WAR and sit Grichuk's 0.3-0.5 WAR. Heck, JD might even teach Grichuk (and Bichette, and Biggio, and Gurriel, and...) how to hit better. Apparently, you wouldn't pay to fill that Grichuk-sized hole. I guess we agree to disagree. So your answer to the question "Who would pay JD more than the $19.5M he's guaranteed next year?" is "the Blue Jays will pay him $16-18M"? If JD believes in himself but agrees with you that the market will pay him only 16-18, even for 2-3 years, he does not opt out. And the question "Could 34-yo JD suddenly fall off a cliff?" could be rephrased to "Could 34-yo JD fall off a cliff the way he did at 32 and the way did to a lesser but noticeable extent May 22-now of his age 33 year?" The man's hit .225 .271 .388 .658 since August 12 in a pennant race.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2021 16:17:51 GMT -5
Well, the Sox will need to clear four spots as Arroyo, Duran, Arauz, and Valdez come off the COVID-IL. (Santana can be DFA'd and Munoz returned to AAA when they come off). Lopez can be returned to AAA, so that makes three spots they need to clear.
Top candidates would appear to be:
Geoff Hartlieb (clained just for depth, it would seem)
Yaksel Rios (burned his last option)
Which would mean one of:
Hudson Potts trade
Jeisson Rosario trade
Ronaldo Hernandez trade
Mata to the MLB 60-day IL
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 18:02:33 GMT -5
Think Valdez has to be a DFA candidate at this point. If not in the next two weeks, hard to see him making it through the offseason. I'd be keeping any of the prospects over him
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Post by Jason on Sept 18, 2021 19:10:53 GMT -5
Braiser has to be a DFA candidate as well. Last option year, didn't do much last year, showed nothing in his brief stint this year. Survived last off-season as a non-tender candidate, can't see him making it again.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 18, 2021 19:47:11 GMT -5
I thought Brasier was pretty good last year once he figured some things out. Velo was even back to when he was lights out for us
Hasn’t been the case this year though so I wouldn’t lose sleep if he’s a DFA
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 19, 2021 23:02:52 GMT -5
The hole is Grichuk. He's been worth 0.5 WAR this year in 454 ABs. That's a gaping hole. He's also 30, so he's not on the upswing, either. JD is averaging 0.5 WAR per month in around the same ABs (492 total).
Could 34-yo JD suddenly fall off a cliff? Sure, but if there was no risk, he'd cost a lot more. Still, lots of DH-only guys have produced well into their late 30s. Could Grichuk suddenly climb up a cliff? I don't think I'd bank on that.
If I'm the Jays, I would gladly pay JD $16-18m (which is my guess for the AAV he'll get) to produce 2.5-3.0 WAR and sit Grichuk's 0.3-0.5 WAR. Heck, JD might even teach Grichuk (and Bichette, and Biggio, and Gurriel, and...) how to hit better. Apparently, you wouldn't pay to fill that Grichuk-sized hole. I guess we agree to disagree. So your answer to the question "Who would pay JD more than the $19.5M he's guaranteed next year?" is "the Blue Jays will pay him $16-18M"? If JD believes in himself but agrees with you that the market will pay him only 16-18, even for 2-3 years, he does not opt out. And the question "Could 34-yo JD suddenly fall off a cliff?" could be rephrased to "Could 34-yo JD fall off a cliff the way he did at 32 and the way did to a lesser but noticeable extent May 22-now of his age 33 year?" The man's hit .225 .271 .388 .658 since August 12 in a pennant race. If the Jays (again, a team that seems like a good fit based on their current lineup structure and having their window wide open), offered JD a 3-yr/$48m deal, that would increase his guaranteed career earnings by $28.5m compared to the $19.5m he'd get if he instead stayed with the Sox in 2022. If the Jays offer him 2-yr/$36m, that would increase it by $16.5m. In that scenario, the question becomes whether JD is willing to bet on himself to have a good enough age-34 season to draw a 1-yr/$16.5m or a 2-yr/$28.5m deal starting in 2023 (his age-35 season). He has to know that he's approaching what is likely to be his last multi-year, 8-figure AAV contract and that if he stumbles in 2022 like he did in the 2-month 2020 season, he'll have to be that much better in 2023 on a 1-year, show-me deal to get his market back to where it is now.
Of course, at the time that this conversation began, the Jays had a 10.5% chance of making the WC game and were sliding fast; they have since turned the ship around, gone 12-3 and bumped those odds to 71.2%. And funnily enough, Randal Grichuk has been a decent part of that run, more than doubling his WAR for the season from 0.5 to 1.1 in two short weeks. If the Jays enjoy a deep run and Grichuk stays hot and becomes an unexpected playoff hero, they probably devote money they might have spent on replacing him in the everyday lineup to pitching instead...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 20, 2021 1:39:20 GMT -5
Think Valdez has to be a DFA candidate at this point. If not in the next two weeks, hard to see him making it through the offseason. I'd be keeping any of the prospects over him Valdez is 4th on the team in Win Probability Added after Ottavino, Whitlock, and Taylor, with 0.56. And that breaks down as 0.49 in his two appearances against the Yankees and 0.07 against everyone else. Since you start a game with .50, Valdez is personally responsible for a big chunk of our lead over the MFY's.
He was very feast or famine. He had 16 outings where he had a wOBA allowed of .220 or better, and 12 where he was .328 or worse, and nothing in between. In the good outings, he averaged 5.6 BFP and had a .225 xwOBA and .110 wOBA. That's a lot of excellent pitching.
In the 12 bad outings, he had .434 xwOBA and .529 wOBA, but he averaged 7.2 batters faced. He was on average left in longer when he was being hit hard than when he was effective, because they left him in in some blowout losses. He had 5 bad outings where he faced 9 or more hitters, but only 2 good ones. He had 4 good outings when he faced the minimum 3 hitters and another 5 when he faced 4; he never was lifted after 3 in a bad outing and faced just 4 guys only twice.
It's very easy to adjust conservatively for those slow hooks (equal patience with good and bad outings), and when you do, he has a .311 wxOBA and .288 wOBA. That's better than MLB average results.
His average (median) outing was a .279 xwOBA and .220 wOBA. He has an option left next year. An up-and-down guy that good is of real value. He's not a trusted guy because he's too unpredictable and inconsistent, but he can give you a 3 1 0 0 1 7 line against the Yankees as he did on 7/23, or close out an extra-inning game after your closer blows a save as he did in the Bronx on 6/5.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 21, 2021 13:17:31 GMT -5
Franchy DFA'ed. Valdez reinstated from the COVID IL.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 21, 2021 14:07:46 GMT -5
The "why now" -- can they remove one of the ALCS pitchers with an injury and put Valdez on the roster?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 21, 2021 15:10:20 GMT -5
If I'm Arizona I can just DFA a free agent to be and pick Franchy up for free, right? And then decide if I want to keep him around at the non-tender deadline.
I bet the Red Sox get something for him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 21, 2021 20:50:07 GMT -5
I fully expect both Potts and Rosario to DFAed also to make room for a large Rule 5 class of prospects to be added.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 22, 2021 19:58:54 GMT -5
I fully expect both Potts and Rosario to DFAed also to make room for a large Rule 5 class of prospects to be added. Doubt it'll matter but interesting that they DFAd Cordero before either of them. Not sure what to make of that, if anything
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 22, 2021 22:55:22 GMT -5
I fully expect both Potts and Rosario to DFAed also to make room for a large Rule 5 class of prospects to be added. Doubt it'll matter but interesting that they DFAd Cordero before either of them. Not sure what to make of that, if anything I think it means that the Red Sox are clearly done giving Franchy Cordero any more chances at the MLB level. Rosario and Potts could have some MLB up side, but there are too many solid players ahead of them on the depth chart for them to keep their spots.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 23, 2021 10:27:56 GMT -5
Doubt it'll matter but interesting that they DFAd Cordero before either of them. Not sure what to make of that, if anything I think it means that the Red Sox are clearly done giving Franchy Cordero any more chances at the MLB level. Rosario and Potts could have some MLB up side, but there are too many solid players ahead of them on the depth chart for them to keep their spots. Would be pretty hard to make an argument for Potts having more MLB upside given that Franchy has flashed better production at the MLB level than Potts had in AA, so I am not buying that as the reason they DFA'd him first. Probably more denial of sunk cost than anything else.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 23, 2021 12:35:01 GMT -5
I think it means that the Red Sox are clearly done giving Franchy Cordero any more chances at the MLB level. Rosario and Potts could have some MLB up side, but there are too many solid players ahead of them on the depth chart for them to keep their spots. Would be pretty hard to make an argument for Potts having more MLB upside given that Franchy has flashed better production at the MLB level than Potts had in AA, so I am not buying that as the reason they DFA'd him first. Probably more denial of sunk cost than anything else. It is really a moot point who gets DFAed first Potts and Rosario will be gone shortly anyway.
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Post by fanofredsox on Oct 23, 2021 15:15:42 GMT -5
Now that the season is over for the Red Sox, when are JD's & Schwarber's decision due on opt in/out? Isn't it something like 5 or 10 days? Or do they have until after the world series?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2021 18:57:44 GMT -5
Now that the season is over for the Red Sox, when are JD's & Schwarber's decision due on opt in/out? Isn't it something like 5 or 10 days? Or do they have until after the world series? All option/opt-out/etc. decisions are due 5 days after the WS ends.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 3, 2021 17:50:36 GMT -5
This the same Houck who just threw 5 shutout innings while flashing 4 pitches, and who has a better xwOBA than Eovaldi, ERod, and Pivetta? The Whitlock role is valuable, but if I’m the Red Sox, I’m giving Houck a lot of rope as a starter Who they then removed after like 65 pitches for a reason. I agree with giving him rope as a starter, I just don’t get how people are still defensive when others call him a probable reliever Houck is CURRENTLY one of the five best starters on the Red Sox. Will he be when pitchers and catchers report in February depends on Bloom.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Nov 15, 2021 9:17:48 GMT -5
There still are some guys on the 40 man roster who could be released if the Red Sox need to the space to protect some of the prospects. This includes Arauz, Valdex, Davis and Locastro.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 15, 2021 9:43:24 GMT -5
There still are some guys on the 40 man roster who could be released if the Red Sox need to the space to protect some of the prospects. This includes Arauz, Valdex, Davis and Locastro. Valdez and Davis should probably be moved. Not a fan of either...maybe keep them around because they're cheap and try to dfa them to keep them in the system. I think there is some value with Arauz and Locastro even though on the surface both are JAGS. Arauz keeps surprising though...
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