SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 13, 2020 12:50:17 GMT -5
Looking at the starters from another angle... I realize everyone is going to have a different order but the same concepts apply... For me, with no trades or free agents the opening day starters would be: ERod Eovaldi Perez Houck Gonsalves with Sale, Mata, Pivetta & Mazza in the wings. That's not bad but what's the best way to improve that ? To me, it's trading Pivetta and/or Mazza for reasonably priced but more expensive #2's and/or 3's. In today's market, they will have excess value. Houck should be untouchable and Gonsalves isn't under contract yet. I feel like trading Pivetta now wouldn't be wise. I don't think teams are going to buy into 10 innings of good pitching with the Sox, if you view him as a trade chip then it'd probably be best to let him establish more value first. But personally I would switch Pivetta and Gonsalves in that rotation because I don't see Gonsalves being so good that he makes the team want to go away from the investment they have made into Pivetta.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 13, 2020 22:07:21 GMT -5
Looking at the starters from another angle... I realize everyone is going to have a different order but the same concepts apply... For me, with no trades or free agents the opening day starters would be: ERod Eovaldi Perez Houck Gonsalves with Sale, Mata, Pivetta & Mazza in the wings. That's not bad but what's the best way to improve that ? To me, it's trading Pivetta and/or Mazza for reasonably priced but more expensive #2's and/or 3's. In today's market, they will have excess value. Houck should be untouchable and Gonsalves isn't under contract yet. I feel like trading Pivetta now wouldn't be wise. I don't think teams are going to buy into 10 innings of good pitching with the Sox, if you view him as a trade chip then it'd probably be best to let him establish more value first. But personally I would switch Pivetta and Gonsalves in that rotation because I don't see Gonsalves being so good that he makes the team want to go away from the investment they have made into Pivetta. So then, question. If the Sox obtain a #2 or 3 as many seem to think is likely and assuming everyone is healthy, what do you do with Pivetta ? I believe he's out of options. If you move any of the starters to the pen, you are reducing their value which might be a worse decision than trading him. It's also not just buying into ten innings with the Sox, it's buying into Pivetta being a viable starter AGAIN. GM's know at least as much as we do. Pivetta has 4 years of control and is minimum wage during a Pandemic. The Sox don't have a lot of players with more trade value.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 13, 2020 23:13:44 GMT -5
I feel like trading Pivetta now wouldn't be wise. I don't think teams are going to buy into 10 innings of good pitching with the Sox, if you view him as a trade chip then it'd probably be best to let him establish more value first. But personally I would switch Pivetta and Gonsalves in that rotation because I don't see Gonsalves being so good that he makes the team want to go away from the investment they have made into Pivetta. So then, question. If the Sox obtain a #2 or 3 as many seem to think is likely and assuming everyone is healthy, what do you do with Pivetta ? I believe he's out of options. If you move any of the starters to the pen, you are reducing their value which might be a worse decision than trading him. It's also not just buying into ten innings with the Sox, it's buying into Pivetta being a viable starter AGAIN. GM's know at least as much as we do. Pivetta has 4 years of control and is minimum wage during a Pandemic. The Sox don't have a lot of players with more trade value. The Red Sox currently have a thin rotation. If they sign a #2/#3 and Pivetta is pushed from #5 to #6 or from #6 to #7, then they are still on the thin side. Of the 4 remaining playoff teams, they had the following number of pitchers start a game during the 60 game season: Rays - 13 Astros - 10 Dodgers - 11 Braves -14 The Red Sox need starting pitching as much, or more than any team in baseball, and there's no team that would confidently put Pivetta in as a rotation piece as he has consistently proven to be less than that. So if the Red Sox were to get a 2/3 they would likely still be looking to trade for a pitcher similar to Pivetta for depth and not the other way around. There's nothing wrong with sticking him in the back of the bullpen until they need him - especially with the new roster rules.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 13, 2020 23:40:44 GMT -5
So then, question. If the Sox obtain a #2 or 3 as many seem to think is likely and assuming everyone is healthy, what do you do with Pivetta ? I believe he's out of options. If you move any of the starters to the pen, you are reducing their value which might be a worse decision than trading him. It's also not just buying into ten innings with the Sox, it's buying into Pivetta being a viable starter AGAIN. GM's know at least as much as we do. Pivetta has 4 years of control and is minimum wage during a Pandemic. The Sox don't have a lot of players with more trade value. The Red Sox currently have a thin rotation. If they sign a #2/#3 and Pivetta is pushed from #5 to #6 or from #6 to #7, then they are still on the thin side. Of the 4 remaining playoff teams, they had the following number of pitchers start a game during the 60 game season: Rays - 13 Astros - 10 Dodgers - 11 Braves -14 The Red Sox need starting pitching as much, or more than any team in baseball, and there's no team that would confidently put Pivetta in as a rotation piece as he has consistently proven to be less than that. So if the Red Sox were to get a 2/3 they would likely still be looking to trade for a pitcher similar to Pivetta for depth and not the other way around. There's nothing wrong with sticking him in the back of the bullpen until they need him - especially with the new roster rules. I think you underestimate Pivetta's trade value. I also disagree with putting Pivetta in the pen. For a young pitcher without a whole lot of major league innings to get stretched out in spring to then be in the pen doesn't seem logical to me. These are extraordinary times considering baseball finances, that would be a huge hit to Pivetta's trade value. And yes we need depth at AAA with options or minor league contracts. With all the non-tenders likely, that shouldn't be much of an issue. This is all pretty hypothetical so I'm going to drop it. That's my view, your mileage can vary.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2020 1:36:45 GMT -5
Looking at the starters from another angle... I realize everyone is going to have a different order but the same concepts apply... For me, with no trades or free agents the opening day starters would be: ERod Eovaldi Perez Houck Gonsalves with Sale, Mata, Pivetta & Mazza in the wings. That's not bad but what's the best way to improve that ? To me, it's trading Pivetta and/or Mazza for reasonably priced but more expensive #2's and/or 3's. In today's market, they will have excess value. Houck should be untouchable and Gonsalves isn't under contract yet. Interesting that you'd go with Gonsalves over Pivetta here. Yes, Gonsalves' velocity was reportedly up, but he was only throwing 2-inning stints at the end of the year last year. Doesn't it seem like the move is to make him a reliever at this point? It feels like the ship has sailed on him being an MLB starter. (Understood that this is a completely hypothetical situation that we likely agree is never going to happen anyway, but what good is an internet message board if not for discussing such things? ) I wouldn't want to pigeon hole him at this point based on his past role with reduced velocity, he's only 26. He also has a decent curve. Watch the last few games he pitched, tons of swing and miss and definitely better command than Pivetta. I also like his motion, simple repeatable and gets long extension which gives the batter less time to think. Just my opinion of course but if he appreciates the velocity return enough to sign a minor league contract with spring invite, I think he beats Pivetta and Mazza for the last spot. Also (Abbott): Abbott: “Gonsalves is a guy that can make an impact next year if we bring him back next year. I know he’s a minor-league free agent. His velo went from 89-90 — and he already had a highly rates fastball that had some carry — the velo jumped up to 94-96 mph. He got better as we went along.” ADD: Pivetta would have more trade value which is basically where I was going with the post. If the Sox come up with a #2 or #3, Pivetta won't have options and Gonsalves is in Pawtucket Woosta. Neither is likely to beat out Houck. You need to add a pitcher. No one collected so far who pitched decently or showed promise is going anywhere, if they can help it. The likely rotation at the start of the year is Eovaldi, Perez, Houk, Pivetta, and X. X has to be good -- ideally your #2 starter at first and a strong #4 once everyone else is healthy. They should be able to retain all the MLFA's of interest as well as the guys who clear waivers, and Brice and Godley when they're non-tendered, by offering them really good split contracts and an opt-out. The only way you lose anyone is if someone offers them an MLB deal.
-- No one watching the playoffs is unaware of how valuable a deep pitching staff is to winning post-season games. How many guys do we need to add? For a 13-man staff, you want 14 guys who you would ordinarily never send to the minors. On the off chance all 14 are healthy, you want to know who you'd send down.
Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, SP Acquisition, Perez, Houck, Pivetta, Barnes, Brasier, and Hernandez fit that description. That's 10.
There are lots of internal candidates for a breakout to this level. They can be split into guys who have options left and those who don't.
The former category has a Taylor comeback if it happens, Valdez (what happened in September?), Tapia, and Weber likely on the 40 man, Mazza as a possibility, and for NRI's probably several acquisitions, as well as some subset of Walden (comeback candidate), Springs, Brewer, Stock, Hart, Simpson, Blair, etc.
In the latter category are Brice, Gonsalves, Godley, and Covey. I feel comfortable counting on two guys to emerge. That means two veteran acquisitions.
From the former group, Taylor, Valdez, and Tapia all have clear 6th-inningh medium-high leverage potential (Hembree role) and could be even better, and Weber seems to have a high floor that makes him a good plan B if all of those end up in the minors. Mazza can hopefully be stashed in Pawtucket as emergency depth, especially early in the season.
With the latter group, if they have split contracts with an opt-out it's almost self-regulating. You can start them all at Pawtucket and see how they fare. As there are fewer guys involved here, the odds of finding a keeper are lower than for the first group, but there's a chance you get 2 keepers from the first group.
The odds of an NRI guy pitching himself into an MLB role are about the same as one of the top 10 pitching himself out of one, or being hurt for most of the year.
Note that usually 2 or even 3 guys will be hurt at any point in time, and sometimes more than that. But the 6th starter / long man and 7th man in the pen don't need to be great. We should be set with depth at the former because of our uncertainty about Sale and E-Rod. For the latter, the key is having lots of potentially OK arms in Pawtucket, and that's already a byproduct of the search for real good ones.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 1:41:57 GMT -5
You are assuming ERod won't be ready to start the season. I'd also move Mazza to the later category baring other acquisitions and I'd also add Simpson to the reliever mix. Seth Blair is also a decent long shot for the pen.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 2:08:34 GMT -5
I think that with what is likely to happen with the non-tenders, AAA should have no shortage of major league ready talent without exceeding the cap.
I don't think they will do it but if the Sox wanted to exceed to cap, that would pretty much give them almost unlimited prospect buying opportunities by swallowing a lot of dollars. This should be the most interesting offseason ever.
I should think this is the perfect year to build a deep/strong 40 man.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 5:43:03 GMT -5
I know he's a bit of a dirtbag but I wonder what the Padres thinking is on Mike Clevinger. He looks like what the Sox would be looking for. 2 more years of control but likely to get a big raise in arbitration this year. People have mentioned Wil Myers and the Sox might be able to combine him and Wil Myers rather than a prospect and Myers, that would fill two holes.
If done right, combining those two would only take about $10m cap bucks but would save the Padres a lot of real dollars.
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Oct 14, 2020 5:57:42 GMT -5
Wil Myers suddenly has value after this season's performance and the DH is sticking around. Clevinger's arm may be entering serious concern territory. The SD press is reporting it's just biceps tendonitis but many pitchers have wrapped up their season with that diagnosis only to have TJ later in spring training.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 6:01:48 GMT -5
Wil Myers suddenly has value after this season's performance and the DH is sticking around. Clevinger's arm may be entering serious concern territory. The SD press is reporting it's just biceps tendonitis but many pitchers have wrapped up their season with that diagnosis only to have TJ later in spring training. Agree about Myers but San Diego is likely to be one of the clubs scaling back a bit and you can trust the San Diego front office to give accurate medical information.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 6:26:59 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Oct 14, 2020 6:33:42 GMT -5
Wil Myers suddenly has value after this season's performance and the DH is sticking around. Clevinger's arm may be entering serious concern territory. The SD press is reporting it's just biceps tendonitis but many pitchers have wrapped up their season with that diagnosis only to have TJ later in spring training. Agree about Myers but San Diego is likely to be one of the clubs scaling back a bit and you can trust the San Diego front office to give accurate medical information.Oof. Forgot about their medical department. I think Eric Hosmer becomes the new trade at any cost guy for SD.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 6:50:16 GMT -5
Agree about Myers but San Diego is likely to be one of the clubs scaling back a bit and you can trust the San Diego front office to give accurate medical information.Oof. Forgot about their medical department. I think Eric Hosmer becomes the new trade at any cost guy for SD. That's going to be a tough player to move in today's market. Throughout baseball, high salary, high AAV guys aren't likely to be traded, there's no need for teams to take that on.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 14, 2020 12:55:16 GMT -5
The Red Sox currently have a thin rotation. If they sign a #2/#3 and Pivetta is pushed from #5 to #6 or from #6 to #7, then they are still on the thin side. Of the 4 remaining playoff teams, they had the following number of pitchers start a game during the 60 game season: Rays - 13 Astros - 10 Dodgers - 11 Braves -14 The Red Sox need starting pitching as much, or more than any team in baseball, and there's no team that would confidently put Pivetta in as a rotation piece as he has consistently proven to be less than that. So if the Red Sox were to get a 2/3 they would likely still be looking to trade for a pitcher similar to Pivetta for depth and not the other way around. There's nothing wrong with sticking him in the back of the bullpen until they need him - especially with the new roster rules. I think you underestimate Pivetta's trade value. I also disagree with putting Pivetta in the pen. For a young pitcher without a whole lot of major league innings to get stretched out in spring to then be in the pen doesn't seem logical to me. These are extraordinary times considering baseball finances, that would be a huge hit to Pivetta's trade value. And yes we need depth at AAA with options or minor league contracts. With all the non-tenders likely, that shouldn't be much of an issue. This is all pretty hypothetical so I'm going to drop it. That's my view, your mileage can vary. Pivetta got traded for two middling-to-decent relievers less than two months ago. Not enough has happened in between then to where GM's would all of a sudden want to give up legitimate assets for him. You make the case that GM's know what they're doing and bring up Pivetta's years of control and whatnot. Those were all things that were still true in August, and he didn't have much of a market then. Again, unless teams saw some tweak in those 10 innings that was world's different than the Pivetta in Philly, no one is going to want to give up a legitimate starting pitcher for him when they wouldn't a couple months ago.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 14, 2020 12:57:24 GMT -5
You are assuming ERod won't be ready to start the season. I'd also move Mazza to the later category baring other acquisitions and I'd also add Simpson to the reliever mix. Seth Blair is also a decent long shot for the pen. Given that he hasn't pitched in a year and wasn't even cleared for physical activity until a few weeks ago, it's a very reasonable assumption that he won't be in the rotation in the start of the season. Even if he feels somewhat ready, it's just pragmatic to give him an extended ramp-up period, especially since we have no idea what spring training is going to look like.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 14, 2020 19:23:35 GMT -5
I'm actually more pessimistic than most about ERod. I give it about 50-50 he will be ready opening day and agree that being pragmatic is the right approach to building the staff. Having starters with options is a better way to cover the bases than turning starters into relievers.
This past trading deadline was a sellers market for teams with any financial flexibility and Bloom took full advantage of that. This coming offseason will be a buyers market for teams with financial flexibility and I expect Bloom will take advantage of that as well. $35-40 million might not sound like a lot but it's pretty much 35-40 million in a market where teams are trying to shed salary and there won't be much competition in that area.
Two teams that are somewhat similarly situated financially this offseason are the Red Sox and Yankees with the primary difference being that the Yankees have to reset and the Red Sox don't. If the Sox don't exceed their cap then they are similarly situated. If they exceed the cap they are pretty much in the drivers seat across most of baseball.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 15, 2020 12:19:33 GMT -5
I'm actually more pessimistic than most about ERod. I give it about 50-50 he will be ready opening day and agree that being pragmatic is the right approach to building the staff. Having starters with options is a better way to cover the bases than turning starters into relievers. This past trading deadline was a sellers market for teams with any financial flexibility and Bloom took full advantage of that. This coming offseason will be a buyers market for teams with financial flexibility and I expect Bloom will take advantage of that as well. $35-40 million might not sound like a lot but it's pretty much 35-40 million in a market where teams are trying to shed salary and there won't be much competition in that area. Two teams that are somewhat similarly situated financially this offseason are the Red Sox and Yankees with the primary difference being that the Yankees have to reset and the Red Sox don't. If the Sox don't exceed their cap then they are similarly situated. If they exceed the cap they are pretty much in the drivers seat across most of baseball. I'd love to see them go crazy with interesting NRI guys. Ideally, you end up with so many guys who look like they can pitch in MLB that, even after you stash as many as possible in AAA, you still have a surplus you can trade for your favorite low-minors lottery tickets.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 12:30:25 GMT -5
I'm actually more pessimistic than most about ERod. I give it about 50-50 he will be ready opening day and agree that being pragmatic is the right approach to building the staff. Having starters with options is a better way to cover the bases than turning starters into relievers. This past trading deadline was a sellers market for teams with any financial flexibility and Bloom took full advantage of that. This coming offseason will be a buyers market for teams with financial flexibility and I expect Bloom will take advantage of that as well. $35-40 million might not sound like a lot but it's pretty much 35-40 million in a market where teams are trying to shed salary and there won't be much competition in that area. Two teams that are somewhat similarly situated financially this offseason are the Red Sox and Yankees with the primary difference being that the Yankees have to reset and the Red Sox don't. If the Sox don't exceed their cap then they are similarly situated. If they exceed the cap they are pretty much in the drivers seat across most of baseball. I'd love to see them go crazy with interesting NRI guys. Ideally, you end up with so many guys who look like they can pitch in MLB that, even after you stash as many as possible in AAA, you still have a surplus you can trade for your favorite low-minors lottery tickets. Dumb question. Can you trade NRI guys before 6 months ? There's a ton of free agent pitchers that used to be good but had bad 2020's Tehran, for example. Considering our rotation issues this year, Boston would have to be appealing to them.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2020 18:56:12 GMT -5
Free agents can't be traded before June 15.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 19:00:34 GMT -5
Free agents can't be traded before June 15. Does that include minor league contracts ? Could a team hypothetically release a player from a minor league contract with a something coming back in return ?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2020 19:02:38 GMT -5
Free agents can't be traded before June 15. Does that include minor league contracts ? I... think? I admittedly don't know. Seems like that'd be the case?
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 19:04:22 GMT -5
The NRI situation is specifically what I'm thinking about. I can't see the player's union objecting to a player getting a major league job.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2020 19:10:57 GMT -5
I know what you're taking about. But the point of the rule is that a team can't sign you then immediately trade you. Getting traded doesn't mean you're getting called up.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 15, 2020 19:26:37 GMT -5
I know what you're taking about. But the point of the rule is that a team can't sign you then immediately trade you. Getting traded doesn't mean you're getting called up. But it could though. You could trade specifically to a team that would put him on their 40 man. Most of these guys aren't going to have options. I totally understand them not wanting to trade a major league player before the ink is dry, that's not bargaining in good faith. If I am a player, I would prefer to be traded to a major league job over being in a line hoping someone is going to get hurt or fail. eric's point above is something I can't say I've ever thought about.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2020 21:53:26 GMT -5
8. An Article XX-B MLB free-agent who signs a Major League contract after 11:59 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series has an automatic "no trade" right through June 15th. The player can waive this right, but if he does he can be traded only for cash and/or player contracts with a maximum aggregate value of $50,000. Note that an Article XX-B MLB free-agent who signs a minor league contract after 11:59 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series does NOT receive an automatic "no trade" right, even if the player is later added to the club's MLB Reserve List (40-man roster). www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3524
|
|
|