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Let’s Go Shopping - 2020-21 FAs
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Post by manfred on Sept 29, 2020 14:25:57 GMT -5
All of the FA SP who threw 40+ innings as a starter, plus the three interesting guys in their walk year.
The difference between my pERA and Statcast's xERA is cheap hits. Statcast includes whether you prevented them or gave them up. Is that a skill? I don't know. Hence I've averaged them.
Name pERA xERA Ave Trevor Bauer 2.50 2.17 2.34 Kevin Gausman 3.38 3.49 3.44 Lance Lynn 3.74 3.26 3.50 (trade) J.A. Happ 4.01 3.28 3.65 L Masahiro Tanaka 4.64 4.01 4.33 Adam Wainwright 4.30 4.52 4.41 Danny Duffy 4.44 4.64 4.54 L (trade) Mike Minor 5.04 4.21 4.62 L Garre. Richards 4.79 4.55 4.67 Taijuan Walker 4.54 4.87 4.70 Mike Fiers 5.02 4.71 4.86 Rick Porcello 4.70 5.25 4.98 Brett Anderson 5.18 4.81 5.00 L Alex Cobb 6.25 6.04 6.15 (trade) With all the pitching in the pipeline I don't think it makes sense to go after Gausman.
The guy who really interests me is Tanaka, a guy who has always seemed to me capable of being better than he has been. He's looked great sometimes and awful at others. If they think they can tweak Wainwright's approach, that would be solid. At his age (39 next year) you can get him for a year plus an option.
I like this thinking. I’d be down for one +option contracts for Tanaka and Wainwright. Both guys who could still squeeze out really good years, but also can’t be looking for long commitments.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 29, 2020 14:29:41 GMT -5
Rich Hill finished well in MN. Maybe he would like to finish his career at home. I think the reason the Sox didn't offer him a deal this year was the salary cap. Bloom did well with the one year contract of Pillar and one plus one for Perez. Hill might fit one of those deals.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 29, 2020 14:37:16 GMT -5
All of the FA SP who threw 40+ innings as a starter, plus the three interesting guys in their walk year.
The difference between my pERA and Statcast's xERA is cheap hits. Statcast includes whether you prevented them or gave them up. Is that a skill? I don't know. Hence I've averaged them.
Name pERA xERA Ave Trevor Bauer 2.50 2.17 2.34 Kevin Gausman 3.38 3.49 3.44 Lance Lynn 3.74 3.26 3.50 (trade) J.A. Happ 4.01 3.28 3.65 L Masahiro Tanaka 4.64 4.01 4.33 Adam Wainwright 4.30 4.52 4.41 Danny Duffy 4.44 4.64 4.54 L (trade) Mike Minor 5.04 4.21 4.62 L Garre. Richards 4.79 4.55 4.67 Taijuan Walker 4.54 4.87 4.70 Mike Fiers 5.02 4.71 4.86 Rick Porcello 4.70 5.25 4.98 Brett Anderson 5.18 4.81 5.00 L Alex Cobb 6.25 6.04 6.15 (trade) With all the pitching in the pipeline I don't think it makes sense to go after Gausman.
The guy who really interests me is Tanaka, a guy who has always seemed to me capable of being better than he has been. He's looked great sometimes and awful at others. If they think they can tweak Wainwright's approach, that would be solid. At his age (39 next year) you can get him for a year plus an option.
Those Bauer numbers are impressive. It's easy to dream on him heading a playoff rotation. I can't believe he will stick to his idea of one year contracts after receiving a QO. It would be tough to give up a second rounder for just one year of him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2020 17:10:04 GMT -5
Rich Hill finished well in MN. Maybe he would like to finish his career at home. I think the reason the Sox didn't offer him a deal this year was the salary cap. Bloom did well with the one year contract of Pillar and one plus one for Perez. Hill might fit one of those deals. OK, so I have to look at all the guys who didn't pitch 40 innings! And if I'm going to their page at FG to get numbers, I can take a quick look at their Game Log to see if they started poorly and finished strong a la Eovaldi. Samn, I dshould have done that withe the above guys!
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 29, 2020 17:26:09 GMT -5
Was just thinking. What is the chance Bradley gets QO. I’d would think no And it would be a gross overpay but??? 17.5M$ for 1 year. If he accepts it we are overpaying be 5-10M$ but it’s a 1 year deal and financially you know where you stand in November. It he rejects it then you get the pick. I’d still say it’s unlikely. And I’m not confident he will or wants to be back. Time will tell
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 29, 2020 22:28:20 GMT -5
One name that has not gotten much attention who could be our best potential option is Nick Castellanos of the reds. He has an opt out this offseason and could hit the market. He currently has 3 years left on his deal which will pay him $52 million over the duration including $16 million each next year and the year after. The last season of the deal will pay him $20 million. He's 28 heading into his age 29 season. Plays RF/3B/1B so would give the sox some nice positional flexibility. Hits lots of doubles (58 last year) and has good pop from the right side. Would prefer him over ozuna who is a year older as well. I liked Castellanos coming into this year as a 1B option. But given the market and his down year, I highly doubt he opts out of 3/52, or can find better elsewhere. He's bad defensively at 3B and OF, so he's flexible only as much as Chavis is flexible - he can stand there and make an attempt, but you're unlikely to be happy with the outcome (Chavis is probably a bit better). He's never played 1B in the majors before, but given his tall frame (6'4") and low error rate (.955 Fielding percentage at 3B - which is much tougher) he should play up there; but i just don't see the fit on the current team with 2 RHH 1B options already.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2020 22:44:14 GMT -5
Was just thinking. What is the chance Bradley gets QO. I’d would think no And it would be a gross overpay but??? 17.5M$ for 1 year. If he accepts it we are overpaying be 5-10M$ but it’s a 1 year deal and financially you know where you stand in November. It he rejects it then you get the pick. I’d still say it’s unlikely. And I’m not confident he will or wants to be back. Time will tell He couldn't sanely reject it, because no one would match it.
But you wouldn't need to go that high. You could counter Boras's first offer and say, "sure, if it's for just one year plus an option!"
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 30, 2020 6:42:47 GMT -5
Was just thinking. What is the chance Bradley gets QO. I’d would think no And it would be a gross overpay but??? 17.5M$ for 1 year. If he accepts it we are overpaying be 5-10M$ but it’s a 1 year deal and financially you know where you stand in November. It he rejects it then you get the pick. I’d still say it’s unlikely. And I’m not confident he will or wants to be back. Time will tell I wouldn't mind having Bradley back for one year at that dollar amount if there's a halfway decent chance of scoring a comp pick, the issue is that I don't think there's any chance a team signs him if they would lose a high pick to do it, so really you'd just be paying him $10 million more than necessary for a one year deal.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Sept 30, 2020 7:08:04 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that I don't want the Red Sox signing anybody who's been made a QO by their current team this offseason. I understand that in most years a 2nd round draft pick isn't something to pine over when getting a high priced, presumably high production, free agent to play for the Major League team, but with their slot as high as it is they have a great chance at getting a true first round talent who falls due to signability concerns, especially not knowing if smaller market teams will even attempt to maximize their draft spending wit the general budget crunch many are citing as reasons to lay off staff and suppress the FA market. It's not likely the Red Sox get another chance any time soon to make 2 selections in the top 35-45, and I'd not like to see them waste one of them on a free agent who may or may not produce when he arrives in Boston.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 30, 2020 9:58:49 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that I don't want the Red Sox signing anybody who's been made a QO by their current team this offseason. I understand that in most years a 2nd round draft pick isn't something to pine over when getting a high priced, presumably high production, free agent to play for the Major League team, but with their slot as high as it is they have a great chance at getting a true first round talent who falls due to signability concerns, especially not knowing if smaller market teams will even attempt to maximize their draft spending wit the general budget crunch many are citing as reasons to lay off staff and suppress the FA market. It's not likely the Red Sox get another chance any time soon to make 2 selections in the top 35-45, and I'd not like to see them waste one of them on a free agent who may or may not produce when he arrives in Boston. Fair points, and really I don't think there is any one player that's worth losing our 2nd rounder for given how high it will be this year. I think the best approach is to look for potential 1 yr bargains that don't have a QO attached and gear up for the 2021 free agent class. Much better talent in that group. Guys like lindor, story, thor, baez etc. No point spending big for 2nd tier guys like springer and ozuna. Let the young guys play next year. One guy I would look hard at in this years class is Liam Hendricks. Other good bullpen options could be Rosenthal, yates, trienen, and colome. Giles would have been at the top of the list but is out next year recovering from TJ unfortunately.
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Post by ortiz34 on Sept 30, 2020 13:50:21 GMT -5
I'm seeing 100s of "The Red Sox should sign Bauer" posts on twitter. Unless he takes a 1 year deal, I say pass.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 30, 2020 13:54:32 GMT -5
Ok I would be fine giving up the 2nd rounder to sign Bauer for 4-5 years
I know I know.....long term/big money deal for a pitcher. Never works. Idc.
I also feel like his understanding of how to pitch and break down pitching is a huge asset for the rest of the pitching staff, particularly for some of the younger guys we have coming up. Kinda like how JD is everybody’s extra hitting coach when he has video access
Plus he’s a total weirdo, I like that
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 30, 2020 14:05:36 GMT -5
I'm seeing 100s of "The Red Sox should sign Bauer" posts on twitter. Unless he takes a 1 year deal, I say pass. Honestly, at this point I'd probably pass even if its a 1 year deal. Not worth it to give up our 2nd rounder for 1 year of bauer who will likely regress based on the numbers he put up this year. The sox should really be focused on the 2021 class. Even with someone like bauer or springer this team will not be a ws contender next year. Which tbh I'm fine with if it means building a team for 2022 that will be competitive for the long-term. Over the course of next season we should see duran, downs and mata all jump to the bigs. On top of that, guys like dalbec, houck and arroyo will get a full season. And guys like Benintendi and Chavis will get a chance to rebound. Lets see how all of that plays out before making any big money signings. I would look more towards the trade market this offseason and see if good value can be had. No need to overpay for a 2nd tier FA when much better options are only a year away.
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Post by mikeyg413 on Sept 30, 2020 14:11:15 GMT -5
I'm seeing 100s of "The Red Sox should sign Bauer" posts on twitter. Unless he takes a 1 year deal, I say pass. Honestly, at this point I'd probably pass even if its a 1 year deal. Not worth it to give up our 2nd rounder for 1 year of bauer who will likely regress based on the numbers he put up this year. The sox should really be focused on the 2021 class. Even with someone like bauer or springer this team will not be a ws contender next year. Which tbh I'm fine with if it means building a team for 2022 that will be competitive for the long-term. Over the course of next season we should see duran, downs and mata all jump to the bigs. On top of that, guys like dalbec, houck and arroyo will get a full season. And guys like Benintendi and Chavis will get a chance to rebound. Lets see how all of that plays out before making any big money signings. I would look more towards the trade market this offseason and see if good value can be had. No need to overpay for a 2nd tier FA when much better options are only a year away. Honestly I’m all in for Bauer. He really is adamant about being able to sustain what he’s doing for years to come and he’s big on science and analytics. I think he knows how to keep himself consistent with what hes doing. Even though he’s a youtuber and talks about his workout routine and how he keeps himself in shape I’m not sure anyone really leans THAT heavily on analytics and scientific stuff like he does. And it works for him. Sox are big analytic guys aren’t they? They’d like what he does I would think.
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 30, 2020 14:18:07 GMT -5
I'm seeing 100s of "The Red Sox should sign Bauer" posts on twitter. Unless he takes a 1 year deal, I say pass. Honestly, at this point I'd probably pass even if its a 1 year deal. Not worth it to give up our 2nd rounder for 1 year of bauer who will likely regress based on the numbers he put up this year. The sox should really be focused on the 2021 class. Even with someone like bauer or springer this team will not be a ws contender next year. Which tbh I'm fine with if it means building a team for 2022 that will be competitive for the long-term. Over the course of next season we should see d uran, downs and mata all jump to the bigs. On top of that, guys like dalbec, houck and arroyo will get a full season. And guys like Benintendi and Chavis will get a chance to rebound. Lets see how all of that plays out before making any big money signings. I would look more towards the trade market this offseason and see if good value can be had. No need to overpay for a 2nd tier FA when much better options are only a year away. If not these guys, who should they be offering in trade to get value in return?
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 30, 2020 14:22:29 GMT -5
Ok I would be fine giving up the 2nd rounder to sign Bauer for 4-5 years I know I know.....long term/big money deal for a pitcher. Never works. Idc. I also feel like his understanding of how to pitch and break down pitching is a huge asset for the rest of the pitching staff, particularly for some of the younger guys we have coming up. Kinda like how JD is everybody’s extra hitting coach when he has video access Plus he’s a total weirdo, I like that Quite an impressive playoff start today. www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=401246343I really dislike the idea of losing that second round pick and the cap money that goes with it. As agastonguay said, it's really like losing another first rounder. Bauer is the only guy I would consider losing it for on a multiyear deal.
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Post by brendan98 on Sept 30, 2020 14:48:18 GMT -5
I apologize in advance for not knowing what this rule is, but if the Sox sign any free agent they lose their 2nd round pick and the draft money associated with that pick?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2020 14:57:54 GMT -5
Can we contend next year?
Well, how good where we near the end? We were 12-27. Then we went 12-9, against opponents with a .544 Win Percentage (adjusting for home field), or a .527 by Pyth, or a .514 by FanGraph's end-of-year rating. I answered this question 6 ways -- using each of the three opponent measures, and both our actual and Pyth win% (which amounts to 11-10). This is in wins per 162 games. The two columns are for the two ways of assessing us, while the three rows are for the three ways of assessing our opponents.
How Actual Pyth W/L 99 94 Pyth 97 91 FG 95 89 If you just look at actual records, we played like a 99-win team starting in the second game of the doubleheader on 9/4. At the very least, we were an 89-win team.
But that we won one less game by Pyth is not because we got lucky in 1-run games, where we actually went 3-4. It's because we won 5 blowouts by an average of 7 runs per game (outscoring the opponents 44-9) but lost 3 blowouts by 10 runs per game (32-2). The pitching staff was full of marginal guys we were trying to evaluate, and that increased the RA in both the blowout wins and losses.
But wait, there's more. Seven of the games were started by Chris Mazza (4), Mike "He's down, so don't" Kickham (2), and Ryan Weber (1). But I'm not even going to factor that in, since we actually went 4-3 in those games, and Houck is unlikely to have an 0.53 ERA next year if he start 23 games (the prorated figure from his starting 3 of the 21).
But 2 games were opened by Andrew Triggs. Who was the attempted bulk guy? Matt Hall (hereafter Matt "Thank you for the 4th draft pick" Hall). They gave up 21 runs in those two games.
If we replace the RA allowed in those games by the average RA in the others (4.4), plus half the standard deviation, you get 6 RA allowed in each, or 9 fewer RA in the two games
Is that kosher? Well, the first of these games was in what became Nate Eovaldi's turn in the rotation when he came off the IL (and his brilliant streak started in his last start before his IL stint). The second could have been taken by Houck had they brought him 5 days earlier (by delaying a Kickham start a day). Given that they actually allowed 2.2 runs per game in the six that were started by those two guys, charging 12 RA allowed instead of 21 is a very conservative adjustment.
It gives you a .575 Pyth ... which is 12.1 wins. So it's kosher to use the actual win percentage column.
My best guess would be to split the difference between the Pyth and FG assessments of our opponents.
That gives you a 96 win team.
But wait, there's still more. You didn't forget that the Pyth was dinged by using the bullpen dregs in the blowouts, did you? What if we use a Triggs / Hall adjustment on the actual record? Well, in the first game we were leading the Jays 4-1 going into Hall's second inning of work and ended up losing 10-8. That's another actual win, which yields 107, 104, and 102 wins as our quality pace!
So the truth is somewhere between 96 and 103. Call it 98.
Whatever you call it ... the team played great. With a rotation of Eovaldi, Houck, Perez, Mazza, and Whatever. You can take a lot of the air out of that performance and still be left with a balloon full of optimism.
This is why they're sure they can contend next year, folks. You should be, too.
(For a completely different approach, compare the projected roster to 2018).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2020 14:59:20 GMT -5
I apologize in advance for not knowing what this rule is, but if the Sox sign any free agent they lose their 2nd round pick and the draft money associated with that pick? No, just for a Qualifying Offer guy. So no Bauer.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 30, 2020 16:04:23 GMT -5
Honestly, at this point I'd probably pass even if its a 1 year deal. Not worth it to give up our 2nd rounder for 1 year of bauer who will likely regress based on the numbers he put up this year. The sox should really be focused on the 2021 class. Even with someone like bauer or springer this team will not be a ws contender next year. Which tbh I'm fine with if it means building a team for 2022 that will be competitive for the long-term. Over the course of next season we should see duran, downs and mata all jump to the bigs. On top of that, guys like dalbec, houck and arroyo will get a full season. And guys like Benintendi and Chavis will get a chance to rebound. Lets see how all of that plays out before making any big money signings. I would look more towards the trade market this offseason and see if good value can be had. No need to overpay for a 2nd tier FA when much better options are only a year away. Honestly I’m all in for Bauer. He really is adamant about being able to sustain what he’s doing for years to come and he’s big on science and analytics. I think he knows how to keep himself consistent with what hes doing. Even though he’s a youtuber and talks about his workout routine and how he keeps himself in shape I’m not sure anyone really leans THAT heavily on analytics and scientific stuff like he does. And it works for him. Sox are big analytic guys aren’t they? They’d like what he does I would think. I do agree with a lot of your points but I just question if it really makes sense to give up a high 2nd rounder to sign him. You could potentially get a player with 1st round pedigree who slips out of the 1st round at that spot so it holds a significant amount of value. I think I'd would rather hold off and go after Noah Syndergaard next offseason. He is a year younger than bauer and our 2nd rounder should be much lower come free agency 2021.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 30, 2020 16:18:15 GMT -5
Honestly I’m all in for Bauer. He really is adamant about being able to sustain what he’s doing for years to come and he’s big on science and analytics. I think he knows how to keep himself consistent with what hes doing. Even though he’s a youtuber and talks about his workout routine and how he keeps himself in shape I’m not sure anyone really leans THAT heavily on analytics and scientific stuff like he does. And it works for him. Sox are big analytic guys aren’t they? They’d like what he does I would think. I do agree with a lot of your points but I just question if it really makes sense to give up a high 2nd rounder to sign him. You could potentially get a player with 1st round pedigree who slips out of the 1st round at that spot so it holds a significant amount of value. I think I'd would rather hold off and go after Noah Syndergaard next offseason. He is a year younger than bauer and our 2nd rounder should be much lower come free agency 2021. As philsbosoxfan has mentioned, all free agents may be more difficult to acquire if the Mets new owner is approved. www.google.com/search?q=mets+new+owner&rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS889US921&oq=mets+new+owner&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.6111j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8I would think it would be especially difficult to pry away Thor from that team if he intended to keep him.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 30, 2020 16:19:33 GMT -5
If anyone is curious, here is the list of upcoming free agents who have previously received qualifying offers and are therefore ineligible for another QO (courtesy of MLBtraderumors). Obviously, the majority of these guys wouldn't receive one anyways, but just to be comprehensive: Brett Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Wade Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Marco Estrada, Alex Gordon (just retired), Greg Holland, Ubaldo Jimenez, Howie Kendrick, Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin, Daniel Murphy, Jake Odorizzi, Marcell Ozuna, David Robertson, Jeff Samardzija, Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Santana, Mark Trumbo, Justin Turner, Neil Walker, Matt Wieters, Jordan Zimmermann
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Post by soxfaninnj on Sept 30, 2020 16:58:58 GMT -5
Like how bad is tony Clark at his job? He was asleep at the wheel for the last cba and this season when the owners were desperate for expanded playoffs he couldn’t negotiate for no draft pick penalty for signing a free agent?? Based on all the reports prior to the season that wasn’t a huge ask!
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2020 17:39:36 GMT -5
I’m all in on Springer andLa Stella
That gives you a line-up (in rough order) of Verdugo, Bogaerts, Springer, JDM, Devers, Dalbec, Vazquez, Benitendi, La Stella.
The pitching on the market is pretty lousy but they are going to need at least one more #3 type starter.
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Post by mikeyg413 on Sept 30, 2020 17:45:08 GMT -5
Honestly I’m all in for Bauer. He really is adamant about being able to sustain what he’s doing for years to come and he’s big on science and analytics. I think he knows how to keep himself consistent with what hes doing. Even though he’s a youtuber and talks about his workout routine and how he keeps himself in shape I’m not sure anyone really leans THAT heavily on analytics and scientific stuff like he does. And it works for him. Sox are big analytic guys aren’t they? They’d like what he does I would think. I do agree with a lot of your points but I just question if it really makes sense to give up a high 2nd rounder to sign him. You could potentially get a player with 1st round pedigree who slips out of the 1st round at that spot so it holds a significant amount of value. I think I'd would rather hold off and go after Noah Syndergaard next offseason. He is a year younger than bauer and our 2nd rounder should be much lower come free agency 2021. I totally forgot about the QO. Yeah it’s going to be a tough call. Sox must really love Bauer if they’re gonna get him. They just really need to question if it’s worth a 2nd round pick or not. I’d say if it’s just a 1 year deal then definitely not but if it’s going to be maybe like 3-5 years, I’d think about it. But yeah that QO is gonna soften some interest on him
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