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Post by incandenza on Sept 24, 2020 14:14:36 GMT -5
I love the Verdugo-Downs-Wong trade. I also love Mookie and since he's in the NL I can continue to root for him. Particularly if the Dodgers ever play the Yankees. I'd want no part of the deal Mookie signed with the Dodgers. It would have crippled the Sox for years to come. Let's not forget the Sox had some bad years with Mookie. He's one guy. These things are clear:
- We will never know whether Mookie would have signed an extension here if we hadn't traded him. In fact, we don't have that good a guess about the odds.
- The return we did get, for a year of control plus a draft pick, projects now to be exceptional. It is likely to become the reference point for walk-year superstar trades, the return that GM's seek the equivalent of when they find themselves in that situation. They are unlikely to do as well.
- All imaginable odds about him re-signing yield the trade as the right thing to do. The better your odds of extending him, the better your odds are that you can sign him back after the trade, which makes it an absurdly great win. That keeping Mookie this year wouldn't have helped us make the playoffs (he's been worth 0.8 more bWAR, 0.7 fWAR, than Verdugo), so the walk year proves to be worthless to us, is just gravy.
The really interesting (though probably not meaningful) question, the one that fasscinates us, is whether we would have been better-off extending Mookie, if it turned out that we could. If the luxury tax remains in the next CBA, then the main result of the trade is that you are freeing up a lot of money that, in most scenarios, can be reinvested in cost-controlled talent, and result in a better team for any given payroll. This is the classic "don't tie up too much money in too few players" principle.
However, superstars are uniquely valuable. If your farm system is good enough and you are always flush with cost-controlled players, then it might not be true any longer that you're better off spending the $ difference between Mookie and Alex to upgrade the rest of the roster.
So the irony here is that if Bloom can turn us back into a player development monster, that will reduce the value of not retaining Mookie (if we could). There are scenarios where you have such a manageable payroll that you'd gladly swap Verdugo back to the Dodgers for Mookie, even with the salary difference. But under the current luxury tax system, those are very unlikely. (A change in the CBA -- e.g., to needing to get under the cap every five yerars instead of three -- could make it likelier.)
And the reason for this is simple: as valuable as superstars are (even making superstar money), they are not as valuable as cost-controlled mere All-Stars. Now, Verdugo is no guarantee to end up that good -- we thought Benny would be one by this point -- but if he turns out to be a 5.0 WAR player, it's going to be really hard to wish we could have kept Mookie. That's the reason I thought the Dodgers would never include Verdugo in the trade.
I hope that's the last word on the trade! (I also hope to date Rooney Mara.)
It's telling (in a good way) that this whole comment could be written without even mentioning Jeter Downs.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2020 17:04:01 GMT -5
3 of the tiebreakers in the 6-team NL scrum are unresolved. 3 of 15.
division records:
STL....19-16 CIN...21-19 MIL...17-18 SF....17-18 PHI...21-19 MIA...20-19
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2020 17:04:44 GMT -5
rough draft .......STL....CIN...MIL...SF....PHI...MIA ___________________________________________________ STL.|...-.....STL...MIL...STL... ... CIN.|..STL.....-....CIN...CIN...CIN20...CIN MIL.|..MIL....CIN....-....MIL... ...MIA SF..|..STL....CIN...MIL....-....PHI...MIA PHI.|.. ....CIN20. ...PHI....-....MIA MIA.|.. ....CIN...MIA...MIA...MIA....-. last 20 division games, CINN 12-8 PHIL 8-12 SF 8-7-5 MIA 11-9 www
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2020 17:10:52 GMT -5
at 31-29, CIN has tie over SF. but at 32-28, it goes to the last 20 games rule. CIN wins that. these will shake out largely in the next 28 hours. but i need to fix my chart.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Sept 24, 2020 18:58:26 GMT -5
We really really really need to lose this game.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on Sept 24, 2020 19:09:37 GMT -5
Martin doing his job damn well
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Post by station13 on Sept 24, 2020 19:09:38 GMT -5
Boof Bonser warming.
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orion09
Veteran
Posts: 1,219
Member is Online
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Post by orion09 on Sept 24, 2020 19:12:05 GMT -5
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 24, 2020 19:14:39 GMT -5
that inning should've gone so much worse
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 24, 2020 19:20:33 GMT -5
Finally, fortune may be smiling on us a little bit. Not even the Orioles are bad enough to get swept by this team.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 24, 2020 19:27:08 GMT -5
good job Vazzy, he wants that 3rd pick
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 24, 2020 19:35:04 GMT -5
home plate ump just gave Perez a called strikeout six inches off the plate
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,248
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Post by radiohix on Sept 24, 2020 19:35:06 GMT -5
This ump is trying to screw us huh?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2020 19:37:06 GMT -5
Finally, fortune may be smiling on us a little bit. Not even the Orioles are bad enough to get swept by this team. Hope you're right. It's still too close for comfort. I wish the Red Sox would bring their low leverage relievers in.
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Post by costpet on Sept 24, 2020 19:47:53 GMT -5
This season reminds me of Little League pitching tryouts with coaches hovering on the sidelines.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 24, 2020 19:55:22 GMT -5
If Jose Iglesias hit an opposite field home run, this must be our night.
and Perez is experiencing a season's worth of regression in one game.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,248
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Post by radiohix on Sept 24, 2020 19:57:46 GMT -5
Perez deserves his option getting picked up. Thank you for your dedication to the cause Marty!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2020 19:59:37 GMT -5
Am I the only one that finds myself rooting for 2021 auditions ? Dalbec, Chavis, Arroyo, (Munoz gone), Tapia ?
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 24, 2020 20:00:14 GMT -5
Am I the only one that finds myself rooting for 2021 auditions ? Dalbec, Chavis, Arroyo, (Munoz gone), Tapia ? nah I think most of us want to see the interesting guys do well, but it still result in a loss.
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Post by marrcus on Sept 24, 2020 20:03:44 GMT -5
Yeah feeling a bit better: I think that does it.
Joe Castig is trying to have something of a Jackie Bradley night. He doesn't come out and say it but he all but indicates JB won't be a returnee in CF.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2020 20:04:26 GMT -5
Am I the only one that finds myself rooting for 2021 auditions ? Dalbec, Chavis, Arroyo, (Munoz gone), Tapia ? nah I think most of us want to see the interesting guys do well, but it still result in a loss. Exactly. Winning meaningless games will mean less than nothing come next July when it's draft night and we want to see the Red Sox have the highest pick possible and at that point only care about the results of 2021 games, for what we hope is a meaningful season where the wins really matter, as opposed to this week's games.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2020 20:13:01 GMT -5
Yanks down 4-0 in the 8th. going on the road in the first round vs. Central 2nd place winner.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 24, 2020 20:23:21 GMT -5
The final strokes of Bloom’s masterpiece will come this offseason. And we can only guess at what the finished work will look like when he is done. A starting pitcher or two? A closer? A big bat? He has some needs, has a very strong core in place, has the money, obviously has the skills. Perhaps most importantly he has buy-in from an embarrassed ownership which wants to contend now. IMO, the Sox do NOT see 2021 as a bridge year. That is a very happy thought. Enjoy. The team still has some holes, the bullpen needs to be totally revamped. I would prefer a path similar to the offseason prior to 2013 where they got some good middle class, buy low type guys. I wouldnt want to spend big with Sale out a good chunk of next year, bad outfield depth and a bullpen needing a complete overhaul.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 24, 2020 20:54:57 GMT -5
LMAO ! The anxiety for the race to the bottom (or top, if you will) is out in full force tonight.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2020 21:10:15 GMT -5
Yikes, the first middle/middle pitch I've seen Tapia throw and it comes back at him.
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