|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 25, 2020 22:06:29 GMT -5
i admit to not having seen extra innings baseball this year....that is the first time i have seen the sacrifice to get the runner to 3rd. Interesting. Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 25, 2020 22:08:37 GMT -5
i admit to not having seen extra innings baseball this year....that is the first time i have seen the sacrifice to get the runner to 3rd. Interesting. Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value. Well, I guess egg on my face because the sac fly netted the run. Still not a super fan of it in this situation, but it got the job done. A single though ties the game for Atlanta so it's still not the best strategy in my mind.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 25, 2020 22:08:37 GMT -5
i admit to not having seen extra innings baseball this year....that is the first time i have seen the sacrifice to get the runner to 3rd. Interesting. Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value. with noone out, it is a play you could see anyway during a regular game, correct ? I wonder if there is a statistical advantage to it. Edit: I am sure someone has already looked into it.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 25, 2020 22:10:58 GMT -5
i am thinking it is more advantageous if you are the away team, for some reason.
|
|
cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
|
Post by cutz on Sept 25, 2020 22:11:34 GMT -5
Another 4 hour loss
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on Sept 25, 2020 22:11:51 GMT -5
thank you Freddie!! and so we stay above the Tigers for the 3rd pick, for now
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 25, 2020 22:12:19 GMT -5
Ha. There it is. All this worry....and the Sox lose.
Good night all !!!
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 25, 2020 22:13:06 GMT -5
FREEEEEEEMAN!
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on Sept 25, 2020 22:13:38 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 25, 2020 22:13:59 GMT -5
Good loss tonight. Very blue collar.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 25, 2020 22:14:24 GMT -5
Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value. with noone out, it is a play you could see anyway during a regular game, correct ? I wonder if there is a statistical advantage to it. Edit: I am sure someone has already looked into it. I mean, the fact the other team starts with a runner on 2B changes the complexion. If it was a leadoff double then I say you push. With the other team getting a runner on 2B, I don't think you waste the out, but of course, if the pen holds the lead then they look smart for sacrificing.
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Sept 25, 2020 22:14:35 GMT -5
3rd pick still alive ❣❤
|
|
cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
|
Post by cutz on Sept 25, 2020 22:21:01 GMT -5
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2020 22:49:45 GMT -5
Unquestionably the greatest game I've ever watched where I was rooting for the Sox to lose!
Our win probability (incorrect for extra innings, which FanGraphs has completely wrong; their top of the 10th and 11th doesn't factor in the extra runner that the home team will have in the bottom)
.315 (low point trailing)
.547 (Plawecki single after JBJ ties it)
.421 (low point tied)
.694 (2-1 lead) .434 (bases full vs. Weber with 1 out) .739 (two batters later) .064 (Braves go up 4-2) .716 (tied again in top of 9th) .355 (going into bottom of ninth still tied) .917 (up 6-4, actually somewhat less)
.652 (Springs gives up a run) .896 (then gets 2 outs) .385 (tied again) .807 (back up a run, actually less)
.000
We had a 6.4% chance of winning, got it up into the 80's two different times, getting as high as 89.6% ... and lost. Wowza.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2020 23:00:09 GMT -5
What a clutch loss that was. Thank you Jeffrey Springs. He couldn't get the final out to nail down the victory and he promptly gives up the walk-off. A tip of the cap for Brasier to blow the 2-1 lead he was handed in the 8th and thankfully the Sox blew a chance to break a 4-4 tie in the 9th no thanks to Melancon who looked awful.
So crazy rooting for them to lose. My 8 year old actually caught the last few innings. Normally he doesn't watch baseball but I felt so bad - here he was rooting for the Red Sox to win, and frustrated when they didn't, and here I am rooting for them to lose. I tried to explain that the Sox would be far better off losing these meaningless games...but to no avail.
At least we both could root (successfully) for the Celtics to win, so that made things a lot better.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2020 0:34:54 GMT -5
What a clutch loss that was. Thank you Jeffrey Springs. He couldn't get the final out to nail down the victory and he promptly gives up the walk-off. A tip of the cap for Brasier to blow the 2-1 lead he was handed in the 8th and thankfully the Sox blew a chance to break a 4-4 tie in the 9th no thanks to Melancon who looked awful. So crazy rooting for them to lose. My 8 year old actually caught the last few innings. Normally he doesn't watch baseball but I felt so bad - here he was rooting for the Red Sox to win, and frustrated when they didn't, and here I am rooting for them to lose. I tried to explain that the Sox would be far better off losing these meaningless games...but to no avail. At least we both could root (successfully) for the Celtics to win, so that made things a lot better. After the Sox won, I mean lost, I tuned to the Celtics game and watched for at least 5 minutes with "Celtics post-game" promised on the screen, without getting any kind of score. They even started showing Sox highlights! At that point I finally gave up and went upstairs to check it out online, then promptly forgot about it while watching the pennant race scoreboards and posting here. This is how I found out they won!
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 26, 2020 6:07:48 GMT -5
What a clutch loss that was. Thank you Jeffrey Springs. He couldn't get the final out to nail down the victory and he promptly gives up the walk-off. A tip of the cap for Brasier to blow the 2-1 lead he was handed in the 8th and thankfully the Sox blew a chance to break a 4-4 tie in the 9th no thanks to Melancon who looked awful. So crazy rooting for them to lose. My 8 year old actually caught the last few innings. Normally he doesn't watch baseball but I felt so bad - here he was rooting for the Red Sox to win, and frustrated when they didn't, and here I am rooting for them to lose. I tried to explain that the Sox would be far better off losing these meaningless games...but to no avail. At least we both could root (successfully) for the Celtics to win, so that made things a lot better. Did Springs lock up this year's 10th player award?!!!
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2020 6:34:44 GMT -5
The extra inning rule might not please everyone but there's no denying the added excitement in tonight's game/
|
|
|
Post by soxinnj on Sept 26, 2020 7:03:10 GMT -5
Pretty much inexcusable for the Sox to be trying to win these last 3 games - there's absolutely no upside. Someone in the front office needs to have a talk with Roenicke They are professionals who have a ton of pride. You can root for them to lose if you want (which I will never do as a fan) but you can’t say it’s inexcusable for them to be trying to win. That is their job. Period.
|
|
|
Post by soxinnj on Sept 26, 2020 7:03:54 GMT -5
i admit to not having seen extra innings baseball this year....that is the first time i have seen the sacrifice to get the runner to 3rd. Interesting. Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value. Sac fly scores the run?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2020 7:45:00 GMT -5
What a clutch loss that was. Thank you Jeffrey Springs. He couldn't get the final out to nail down the victory and he promptly gives up the walk-off. A tip of the cap for Brasier to blow the 2-1 lead he was handed in the 8th and thankfully the Sox blew a chance to break a 4-4 tie in the 9th no thanks to Melancon who looked awful. So crazy rooting for them to lose. My 8 year old actually caught the last few innings. Normally he doesn't watch baseball but I felt so bad - here he was rooting for the Red Sox to win, and frustrated when they didn't, and here I am rooting for them to lose. I tried to explain that the Sox would be far better off losing these meaningless games...but to no avail. At least we both could root (successfully) for the Celtics to win, so that made things a lot better. After the Sox won, I mean lost, I tuned to the Celtics game and watched for at least 5 minutes with "Celtics post-game" promised on the screen, without getting any kind of score. They even started showing Sox highlights! At that point I finally gave up and went upstairs to check it out online, then promptly forgot about it while watching the pennant race scoreboards and posting here. This is how I found out they won! I noticed the score at half time - I think Miami was up 6, and at some point Miami went up 60-51. Then on a commercial break, I flipped to the Celtics game and the Celts were in the midst of a 13-0 run or something like that and my kid was getting so excited, jumping up and down and shouting - he had never even seen a basketball game before. On the flip side, he uttered a couple of "Damn it!!"s when Spring blew that last out in the 10th and gave up the game winner in the 11th. Had to calm him down so he wouldn't wake up his mother, - and he wasn't buying my "there are some times in life where it's really good to lose" speech, and flipped back to the Celtics game convincing him it was virtually impossible for the Celtics to blow a 14 point lead with 3 minutes to go. That calmed things back down and left the night on a good note.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 26, 2020 8:54:43 GMT -5
Roster idea for Saturday: option Mazza, he's done for the year. Move Tapia to the 45-day IL. He's ineligible to return. Clears a spot for a non-roster player, i.e. Ockimey.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 26, 2020 9:57:39 GMT -5
Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value. Sac fly scores the run? But then you have 2 outs with 1 run to show with the other team having 3 chances with a runner on 2B
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 26, 2020 11:23:48 GMT -5
But then you have 2 outs with 1 run to show with the other team having 3 chances with a runner on 2B gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.htmlBefore the bunt, expected runs 1.1 After, .93 If bunt fails, .66 Bunting for a hit could be smarter. If the batter is significantly below average and a good bunter.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2020 12:23:35 GMT -5
Really don't get the idea behind this. The runner is pretty much in scoring position anyways and you're giving up an out. A walk now means the inning can be over with a DP. Don't really see the cost value. Sac fly scores the run? The Win Probability is essentially identical in the top half of the inning (.668, .667 according to the tables in The Book). It completely depends on the hitter's who's up, and who follows him. If you fail, you go down to .555, or .498 if the lead runner gets thrown out, and if you succeed and they don't get an out it's up to .800. So it only makes sense if the guy is a great bunter, and (to a lesser extent) the guy likely to hit next has a high percentage of deep fly ball outs.
Puello laid down a nice one, but I doubt he's a great bunter, and they were very lucky that Arauz got walked. He's not exactly a SF machine type.
It's true, by the way, that pitchers perform much worse than average in SF situations, and I'm not sure whether these Win Probabilities factor that in.
In the bottom of the inning with the score tied, you go from .817 to .835, but if you fail you go to .707, so you have to succeed 86% of the time to break even, ignoring the two extreme outcomes just mentioned.
|
|