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Playoff races, final weekend ... tiebreakers, magic numbers
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 13:26:09 GMT -5
Posted here: tiebreakers, including Divisional records, which MLB calls INTRADIVISIONAL
And the next tiebreaker is Divisional Record in the 2nd half, which is the final 20 divisional games.
THE focus is on the National League. Look for A.L. info sporadically in the thread.
NOTE: St LOUIS is scheduled to play a doubleheader makeup on MONDAY at DETROIT.
THE doubleheader will be played if it effects which 8 teams qualify.
If that doubleheader only effects seeding, one or two of those games will be cancelled.
NOTE: there will be no tiebreaker games. Example, if CIN and PHIL tie for the final 8th spot, the tie is broken by tiebreaker (not by a play-in game).
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 13:27:46 GMT -5
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 13:31:18 GMT -5
beginning of day SUN
Division Record, each team plays 40 total.
STL...21-18
CIN...21-19
MIL...19-20
SF....18-21
PHI...21-19
MIA...21-19
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 15:09:42 GMT -5
for REFERENCE
if DIVISIONAL record is tie, the next tiebreaker is Divisional record for last 20 DIV games.
SF 10-10
phil 8-12
CIN 12-8
MIL 10-9, 1 remain ........ 21L, 22L, 23W
MIAMI 11-9 ......... 21w, 22w, 23w
STL 10-10 ............ 21w, 22w, 23L
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 15:13:39 GMT -5
TIEBREAKERS, NATIONAL LEAGUE example, read across: CIN does NOT have tiebreaker with STL, but does with the other 4 teams.
| STL | CIN | MIL | SF | PHI | MIA
| | STL | - | STL | MIL | STL | STL
| STL | | CIN | STL | - | CIN | CIN | CIN20 | CIN | | MIL | MIL | CIN | - | MIL | PHI | MIA | | SF | STL | CIN | MIL | - | PHI | MIA | | PHI | STL | CIN20 | PHI | PHI | - | MIA | | MIA | STL | CIN | MIA | MIA | MIA | - |
UPDATED: SUN 10 a.m. (MIA v. STL tiebreaker)
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 16:59:18 GMT -5
3-WAY TIES
A) there could be a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the Central, it would be:
STL 30-30, 21-19 div, 10-10 head-to-head among the 3
CIN 30-30, 21-19 div, 10-10 head-to-head among the 3
MIL 30-30, 20-20 div, 10-10 head-to-head among the 3
1. head to head is tied, goes to next tiebreaker
2. DIV record, MIL is eliminated
3. it becomes a 2-way tie STL vs CIN.
4. STL won the season series 6-4 with CIN
STL would be the 2nd place team.
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B) there could be 3-way ties across 3 divisions. Example, PHIL-MIL-SF at 29-31
it goes to DIV record first. SF is quickly eliminated in all of them due to their abysmal DIV record. With SF eliminated, it reverts to a 2-way tie between the other two teams.
So these aren't very interesting.
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C) there are also 3-way ties with 2 of the 3 teams in the same division (Ex PHIL-STL-MIL).
UPDATED SAT 11pm
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2020 17:10:48 GMT -5
It seems to me that there is a chance that the situation going into Sunday will be so complicated that it will make a complete rundown of the possibilities too long to fully absorb. Fans of any given team are thus reduced simply to hoping their guys win and everyone else loses! As each game ends, you'd look up at the written rundown and trey to see where you stood.
If one team is eliminated by then, you'd have "only" 16 scenarios to run down.
Now, in a 162-game schedule, there would be more separation between club records. This crazy finish is a combination of the short season and the expanded playoffs that it warranted.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 18:43:43 GMT -5
rough draft NYY looks like they are going on road in first round: MINN has tiebreaker over NYY. MINN has clinched over NYY if MINN falls to 2nd place. CHI has tiebreaker over NYY. CHI magic # is 1 over NYY CLE has tiebreaker over NYY. CLE magic # is 2 over NYY NYY tiebreaker with TOR. NYY magic # is 2. Or one TOR loss. TOR wins at 33-27. twitter.com/i/web/status/1309544204838764545NYY has tiebreaker over HOU. NYY has clinched over HOU. HOU is locked into #6 when they clinch. LAA tragic # is 1. EDIT: UPDATE 1040pm FRI. AL Central 2nd place has now clinched over East 2nd place. East 2nd place (NYY or TOR) is locked into #5 seed. Starts playoffs on the road @ Central 2nd place. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 18:47:44 GMT -5
American League seeds 2,3 | tiebreakers | ChiSox | Twins | Athletics | | ChiSox | - | ChiSox | Athletics | | Twins | ChiSox | - | Athletics | | Athletics | Athletics | Athletics | - |
#3 Hosts HOUSTON UPDATED SAT 11pm |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2020 19:05:01 GMT -5
American League Central tiebreakers
| MINN | | CLEVE |
| | | | | CHICAGO | CHICAGO |
| CLEVE |
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MINN gets the 3-way tie due to their 12-8 record against CLE and CHI. UPDATED SAT 11pm |
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Post by unitspin on Sept 25, 2020 19:14:52 GMT -5
It might make me the grinch but I'm rooting for every team except the yanks and dodgers too win.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 26, 2020 18:21:21 GMT -5
Updates: Sat 7pm
NYY win. Magic # is 1 for 5 seed.
Oak lost. TB clinch 1 seed.
Oak magic # is 2 for 2 seed.
Marlins loss, tragic # is 1 to drop into 6 seed. Sort of. Play Cubs instead of SD.
Brewers leading in the 7th. If they win, NL teams go to Sunday competing for 2 spots. (StL plays on Monday, too) PHILS could be eliminated late tonight.
UPDATE SUN 1:00 am
4 NL teams fighting for 2 last spots.
The winner of the STL-MIL game clinches one spot.
IF SF loses SUN, they are out.
IF PHIL loses SUN, they are out.
IF BOTH win, PHIL is out.
The survivor of SF-PHIL goes head-to-head against the STL-MIL loser.
that leaves 4 possible outcomes SUN for the final spot.
A. PHIL 29-31 *** has tiebreaker. 8th seed.
... MIL 29-31
B. PHIL 29-31
... STL 29-29 with 2 on MON. Which would be cancelled. STL has tiebreaker over PHIL.
*** STL CLINCHES
C. SF 30-30 *** gets 8th seed.
... MIL 29-31
D. SF 30-30
...STL 29-29 with 2 on MON. Needs one win. has tiebreaker vs. SF
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 27, 2020 0:36:43 GMT -5
#8 NYY or TOR @ TB #1
.... @ OAK
.... @ MINN
.... @ CHI or CLE
#8 @ LAD #1
#7 @ ATL #2
#6 @ CUBS #3
#5 @ SD #4
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2020 0:57:56 GMT -5
I have no idea if this is the same results!
If the Cards win, they're in. And in that case, the Giants are in if they win. If they lose, then the Phillies can grab the spot by winning. But if they lose as well, the Brewers get it despite having lost.
If the Brewers beat the Cards, they're in and the Phillies are eliminated. If the Giants lose, they are eliminated as well.
But if the Giants win, it forces the Cardinals go to Detroit, where they need to win one of the two games to eliminate them.
So the Brewers-Cardinals game is more important for the Brewers. If they lose it, they have to hope that both the Giants and Phillies lose as well. But if the Cardinals lose, they just have to eliminate the Giants, which happens if the Giants lose. If they don't, they have the extra disadvantage of having to go to Detroit to do the job by beating the lowly Tigers once in two shots ... but their chances of making the playoffs remain high.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 27, 2020 12:15:55 GMT -5
Teams with Magic number of ONE going into Sunday
NYY, ONE to clinch 5 seed.
Minn, ONE to clinch 4 or better. Win clinches 2 seed.
StL win on SUN clinches 5 seed ... which pushes MIAMI to 6 seed and CIN to 7 seed.
MIL win clinches 7 or 8.
MIAMI gets the 5 seed with a win, CIN loss, & StL loss today. Otherwise, they are locked into 6 seed. #6 MIA at #3 CUBS
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 27, 2020 18:15:12 GMT -5
WEDNESDAY
#8 MIL @ LAD #1
#7 CIN @ ATL #2
#6 MIAMI @ CUBS #3
#5 STL @ SD #4
TUESDAY
#8 TOR @ TB #1
#7 CHISOX @ #2 OAK
#6 HOUS @ #3 MINN
#5 NYY @ #4 CLE
STL vs. DET on Monday is cancelled.
EDIT:
I like these matchups. NYY would play TB in next round. There is no RE-seeding between rounds.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2020 7:23:40 GMT -5
WEDNESDAY#8 MIL @ LAD #1 #7 CIN @ ATL #2 #6 MIAMI @ CUBS #3 #5 STL @ SD #4 TUESDAY#8 TOR @ TB #1 #7 CHISOX @ #2 OAK #6 HOUS @ #3 MINN #5 NYY @ #4 CLE STL vs. DET on Monday is cancelled. EDIT: I like these matchups. NYY would play TB in next round. There is no RE-seeding between rounds. I can understand the logic of not re-seeding. But if there's an upset, it does produce apparent unfairness, and it can make the subsequent matchups less interesting. Imagine the Blue Jays knock off the Rays via some fluke, while the Yankees beat the Indians. Why are the 2 and 3 seeds, who between them went 72-48 while each won their division, playing each other, while the 5 and 8 teams (65-55) are the other matchup?
The NL coud have one division series with the Braves and Cubs (69-51) and the other with the Cards and Brewers (59-59).
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 28, 2020 8:10:52 GMT -5
these would be the interleague matchups ...
#8 MIL @ TB #1
#7 CIN @ OAK #2
#6 MIAMI @ MINN #3
#5 STL @ CLE #4
#8 TOR @ LAD #1
#7 CHISOX @ #2 ATL
#6 HOUS @ #3 CUBS
#5 NYY @ #4 SD
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