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MLB Playoffs - Wild Card Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 28, 2020 7:44:53 GMT -5
Wild Card Series (9/29-10-2)
AMERICAN LEAGUE
No. 1 Rays vs. No. 8 Blue Jays No. 2 A's vs. No. 7 White Sox No. 3 Twins vs. No. 6 Astros No. 4 Indians vs. No. 5 Yankees NATIONAL LEAGUE
No. 1 Dodgers vs. No. 8 Brewers No. 2 Braves vs. No. 7 Reds No. 3 Cubs vs. No. 6 Marlins No. 4 Padres vs. No. 5 Cardinals Best-of-three series, higher seed is home team Wild Card Series ScheduleA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2020: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2020 10:45:10 GMT -5
I am rooting for the outcomes that will make the 16-team format into the biggest farce possible, to discourage MLB from making it permanent. That mostly means rooting for the lower seeds to win, except for the Yankees, because if they won this stupid thing MLB would be thrilled and take it as a validation. (And of course I would never root for the Yankees anyway.) I especially want the Dodgers to lose in the first round (sorry Mookie!), preferably on a bunch of bloops and seeing eye singles.
What would be the dumbest possible world series? Maybe Reds-Blue Jays?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2020 11:33:30 GMT -5
I am rooting for the outcomes that will make the 16-team format into the biggest farce possible, to discourage MLB from making it permanent. That mostly means rooting for the lower seeds to win, except for the Yankees, because if they won this stupid thing MLB would be thrilled and take it as a validation. (And of course I would never root for the Yankees anyway.) I especially want the Dodgers to lose in the first round (sorry Mookie!), preferably on a bunch of bloops and seeing eye singles. What would be the dumbest possible world series? Maybe Reds-Blue Jays? How about an Astros (I know, I know) versus Brewers World Series? We can have an all sub-.500 World Series! Wouldn't that be spectacular (he says sarcastically)! It would serve MLB right.
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Post by manfred on Sept 28, 2020 11:42:29 GMT -5
Go Dodgers! Another ring for the best player in baseball!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 28, 2020 12:15:47 GMT -5
for whom do I root?
AMERICAN LEAGUE No. 1 Rays No. 2 A's No. 3 Twins No. 4 Indians
NATIONAL LEAGUE No. 8 Brewers No. 7 Reds No. 3 Cubs No. 4 Padres
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2020 12:25:16 GMT -5
I am rooting for the outcomes that will make the 16-team format into the biggest farce possible, to discourage MLB from making it permanent. That mostly means rooting for the lower seeds to win, except for the Yankees, because if they won this stupid thing MLB would be thrilled and take it as a validation. (And of course I would never root for the Yankees anyway.) I especially want the Dodgers to lose in the first round (sorry Mookie!), preferably on a bunch of bloops and seeing eye singles. What would be the dumbest possible world series? Maybe Reds-Blue Jays? How about an Astros (I know, I know) versus Brewers World Series? We can have an all sub-.500 World Series! Wouldn't that be spectacular (he says sarcastically)! It would serve MLB right. Good call! As a bonus, it would also feature the most hated team in baseball.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 12:55:25 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel will be part of the Reds/Braves broadcast team.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2020 12:55:36 GMT -5
I am rooting for the outcomes that will make the 16-team format into the biggest farce possible, to discourage MLB from making it permanent. That mostly means rooting for the lower seeds to win, except for the Yankees, because if they won this stupid thing MLB would be thrilled and take it as a validation. (And of course I would never root for the Yankees anyway.) I especially want the Dodgers to lose in the first round (sorry Mookie!), preferably on a bunch of bloops and seeing eye singles. What would be the dumbest possible world series? Maybe Reds-Blue Jays? I think the underlying premise here is off though. Expanding the playoffs has to do with money, not legitimacy. If you want them not to keep this, you should be rooting for nobody to watch.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2020 12:56:09 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel will be part of the Reds/Braves broadcast team. Considering McDaniel worked for the Braves pretty recently, that kind of surprises me. Feels a bit different than having a player doing it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 13:04:21 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel will be part of the Reds/Braves broadcast team. Considering McDaniel worked for the Braves pretty recently, that kind of surprises me. Feels a bit different than having a player doing it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 28, 2020 13:07:21 GMT -5
Reds Braves should be a good one pitching vs hitting.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2020 13:54:30 GMT -5
I am rooting for the outcomes that will make the 16-team format into the biggest farce possible, to discourage MLB from making it permanent. That mostly means rooting for the lower seeds to win, except for the Yankees, because if they won this stupid thing MLB would be thrilled and take it as a validation. (And of course I would never root for the Yankees anyway.) I especially want the Dodgers to lose in the first round (sorry Mookie!), preferably on a bunch of bloops and seeing eye singles. What would be the dumbest possible world series? Maybe Reds-Blue Jays? I think the underlying premise here is off though. Expanding the playoffs has to do with money, not legitimacy. If you want them not to keep this, you should be rooting for nobody to watch. Okay, I'll root for that too then. The trick, though, would be for the owners to avoid reacting to lower ratings by instituting even more desperate gimmicks that alienate fans in the long run - a vicious cycle of greedy short-sightedness.
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Post by blumj on Sept 28, 2020 15:30:29 GMT -5
Go Dodgers! Another ring for the best player in baseball! It would be fun for us to get to watch him help Dave Roberts' team steal a World Series from Aaron Boone's team on the 16th anniversary.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 28, 2020 17:17:36 GMT -5
How about an Astros (I know, I know) versus Brewers World Series? We can have an all sub-.500 World Series! Wouldn't that be spectacular (he says sarcastically)! It would serve MLB right. Good call! As a bonus, it would also feature the most hated team in baseball. The most hated team in baseball, who in any other year would not have even made the playoffs, would at least force the owners to come out and show that legitimacy is not one of their values anymore if they expand to 16 teams. The Dodgers really do deserve this one, given how much better they are this year and all their recent struggles. So them losing to the 8 seed where some pitcher gets hot and then that 8 seed gets swept, would also be a scenario to root for. On that note, I really don't want to see Kershaw struggle again. That story is becoming cringe-worthy.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2020 20:26:14 GMT -5
Wild Card Series (9/29-10-2)
Odds from FanGraphs on each. They don't seem right to me, so it looks like I may have to do my own anyway!
Got i! They are based on a current-strength win% which has the Sox at .485, but they are not factoring in home field.
So that's the second figure.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
No. 1 Rays vs. No. 8 Blue Jays, 59.8%, 66.6 No. 2 A's vs. No. 7 White Sox, 48.6%, 56.1No. 3 Twins vs. No. 6 Astros, 51.6%, 58.1No. 4 Indians vs. No. 5 Yankees, 47.5%, 53.7NATIONAL LEAGUE
No. 1 Dodgers vs. No. 8 Brewers, 73.4No. 2 Braves vs. No. 7 Reds, 53.8%, 61.3No. 3 Cubs vs. No. 6 Marlins, 56.5%, 63.7No. 4 Padres vs. No. 5 Cardinals, 61%, 68.2
Odds against all the home teams winning: 42 to 1.
Ballpark estimates, based on the average edge of the 8 home teams
.023 no upsets .114 1 upset .237 2 upsets .282 3 upsets .209 4 upsets .100 5 upsets .030 6 upsets .005 7 upsets .0004 all upsets
2 or 3 upsets will be par.
Crap. According to this, the single likeliest outcomes are:
Yankees win and A's lose
Same, plus Astros win.
Seriously? Who wants that?
(Note: no, it doesn't work that way! All those outcomes are still the stated odds and there is no force driving the least favored teams to be the ones that get upset.
But it is freaky that the Yankees and Astros are the best underdogs and (for those who root for Billy Beane to finally have non-crap luck) the team playing the A's is next.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2020 14:05:51 GMT -5
The fact that there hasn't been a post here in 17 hours seems to indicate that I'm not the only one with a serious lack of enthusiasm for such a bloated playoff system. I hated the idea of it when it was announced, but kind of assumed that once it came around I'd be into it. Nope.
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Post by manfred on Sept 29, 2020 15:57:24 GMT -5
I’d definitely be watching the ChiSox if I were at home.
Edit: ok, now I’d be back to not watching — Giolito gave up a hit.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 29, 2020 17:19:44 GMT -5
interesting results...given best of 3. sorry to be uninformed on this, but do they travel if the first 2 games split ?? Edit: poor original choice of words.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Sept 29, 2020 17:50:21 GMT -5
Wow. Blake Snell just gave up his first hit to a guy I didn't know existed (but wish I did) named Alejandro Kirk. FYI, Kirk is listed as 5'8" and 265 lbs. Go ahead and let that picture develop in your head. Yes, he is a catcher.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 29, 2020 17:56:49 GMT -5
random best of 3 first round, expanded playoffs with sub-.500 teams. Yea, I'm still watching some cause I'm bored, but watching this isn't curing said boredom.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 29, 2020 17:59:29 GMT -5
Wow. Blake Snell just gave up his first hit to a guy I didn't know existed (but wish I did) named Alejandro Kirk. FYI, Kirk is listed as 5'8" and 265 lbs. Go ahead and let that picture develop in your head. Yes, he is a catcher. He's pretty awesome. Plump, short guy with great minor league patience and bat to ball skills; made the jump from A+ to the majors this year at age 21 and hasn't looked overmatched yet.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 29, 2020 18:11:33 GMT -5
2 batters in, 2-0 Yankees against Bieber. RIP.
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Post by patford on Sept 29, 2020 19:55:48 GMT -5
Someone ask Shane Bieber if he has an opinion on electronic balls and strikes.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2020 22:40:16 GMT -5
Crap. According to this, the single likeliest outcomes are:
Yankees win and A's lose
Same, plus Astros win.
Seriously? Who wants that?
(Note: no, it doesn't work that way! All those outcomes are still the stated odds and there is no force driving the least favored teams to be the ones that get upset.
But it is freaky that the Yankees and Astros are the best underdogs and (for those who root for Billy Beane to finally have non-crap luck) the team playing the A's is next.
I am really, really sorry about this.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,722
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Post by mobaz on Sept 30, 2020 6:08:35 GMT -5
The fact that there hasn't been a post here in 17 hours seems to indicate that I'm not the only one with a serious lack of enthusiasm for such a bloated playoff system. I hated the idea of it when it was announced, but kind of assumed that once it came around I'd be into it. Nope. I honestly don't bother following the NBA playoffs until round 2, or the NHL until conference finals (if the Bruins are still in it). This feels the same to me. The Sox getting to the first round would no longer be exciting must-see TV, but a minimum threshold for the season.
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