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MLB Playoffs - Wild Card Series Thread
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Post by manfred on Oct 1, 2020 19:42:20 GMT -5
I'm guessing Billy Beane is the leader in wins/$$ spent by a fair margin. That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 1, 2020 20:32:52 GMT -5
I'm guessing Billy Beane is the leader in wins/$$ spent by a fair margin. That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio. Welcome to modern baseball.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 1, 2020 20:39:06 GMT -5
If the Padres get eliminated today, that would not be good for baseball.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2020 21:02:08 GMT -5
I'm guessing Billy Beane is the leader in wins/$$ spent by a fair margin. Close. I only grabbed 2010-2019, but here were the most efficient teams in baseball: Team | Payroll | Wins | $$/win | Tampa Bay Rays
| 658,872,112
| 860
| 766,130
| Oakland Athletics
| 723,606,987
| 809
| 894,446
| Pittsburgh Pirates
| 732,757,162
| 792
| 925,198
| San Diego Padres
| 757,775,079
| 739
| 1,025,406
| Cleveland Indians
| 912,209,638
| 855
| 1,066,912
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The other end of the spectrum: Team | Payroll | Wins | $$/win | San Francisco Giants
| 1,495,659,763
| 821
| 1,821,754
| Detroit Tigers
| 1,471,104,473
| 782
| 1,881,208
| Los Angeles Dodgers
| 1,800,725,353
| 919
| 1,959,440
| Boston Red Sox
| 1,820,144,803
| 872
| 2,087,322
| New York Yankees
| 2,028,135,448
| 921
| 2,202,101
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Source: www.thebaseballcube.com/topics/payrolls/byYear.asp?Y=2019
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Post by pedroiaesque on Oct 1, 2020 21:06:33 GMT -5
I'm guessing Billy Beane is the leader in wins/$$ spent by a fair margin. That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio. Actually, if you’re an 8-year old cheering for a small- or mid-market team like Oakland that is fun to watch, shows you that a baseball player can look like anything (not just the prototypical “baseball body”), and is competitive during the regular season, you may not know much about the Moneyball approach, but you do appreciate it. And if you dream of playing ball for a living, knowing that you can carve out a career in a variety of ways is also something they will appreciate. Getting back to the point of this thread, I agree that the Padres getting bounced early is not good for baseball.
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Post by manfred on Oct 1, 2020 21:10:49 GMT -5
That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio. Welcome to modern baseball. Well, I guess one could also say of some youtube autotune sensation who doesn’t know Son House from Pancake House... welcome to modern music.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2020 21:12:46 GMT -5
In other news, Tatis is a beast.
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Post by pedroiaesque on Oct 1, 2020 21:13:03 GMT -5
Can we get a graph of win probability overlaid with a graph of how much the announcers talk about either team? They seriously could not stop their woe-is-me about the Cards having to play so many games (including double headers that saved them a large percentage of innings compared to other teams...), even basically saying the series is nearly over in the top of the 6th, and now they’re suddenly talking about the Pads again.
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Post by manfred on Oct 1, 2020 21:14:57 GMT -5
That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio. Actually, if you’re an 8-year old cheering for a small- or mid-market team like Oakland that is fun to watch, shows you that a baseball player can look like anything (not just the prototypical “baseball body”), and is competitive during the regular season, you may not know much about the Moneyball approach, but you do appreciate it. And if you dream of playing ball for a living, knowing that you can carve out a career in a variety of ways is also something they will appreciate. Getting back to the point of this thread, I agree that the Padres getting bounced early is not good for baseball. Honestly, as someone who has lived on the East Coast and the West Coast, I don’t know if West Coast teams matter as much. When I lived there, I didn’t want to wait until 10:00 to start watching; and out here I have come to love 4:00 games and dread our own 7:00 (end at 10/10:30 games). My point is that the Padres getting bounced *should be* bad with their great young talent but... does it? Little as we might like it, the Yankees are probably the best outcome for baseball.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 1, 2020 22:58:12 GMT -5
Velly interesting...All the American League Central Division participants have been knocked out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2020 1:16:55 GMT -5
Have you read the book? It's really fantastic. Also, the whole Moneyball thing completely reshaped the sport. I have not. Don’t care. Rather read Malamud. It has changed the sport, but for many of us it has made it worse. The revolution may help quantify how to win, but it has made it borrrrring. I mean, Pernell Whitaker was a far better fighter by all technical measures and won more and easier, but people would rather watch Arturo Gatti. The Hattebergs of the world might win games (but not World Series!), but I don’t want to pay to see them walk or whatever. Analytics have done almost nothing to make the sport less interesting to watch. The borrrrrring is 95% pitchers throwing harder.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2020 2:09:40 GMT -5
I'm guessing Billy Beane is the leader in wins/$$ spent by a fair margin. That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio. Billy Beane saved the game of baseball by making it possible for small-market teams to compete with the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers, by outsmarting them. Take the current competitive balance mechanisms and square them ... that's what you'd need to have the current situation, if analytics hadn't made smarts far more important than revenue, and helped level the field.
I trust you'll celebrate if the Rays beat the Yankees. Stop and think why that's possible and you'll see how indefensible and/or hypocritical your position is.
Oh, and if there weren't analytics, we might be looking for our first WS victory rather than out fifth.
You know why I actually think the old-school fans dislike analytics? Because we told you that all the stats you loved as a kid were more or less bogus, and made you learn a whole bunch of new ones instead. "Joey I'm sorry, but your mother was an alcoholic and cheated on your Dad. We're giving you this stranger lady to serve as your new Mom." I can see how that might bother some people.
But for most of us, it was "Yeah, your suspicions were right: she was an alcoholic and a cheater ... but she wasn't your real mother. That lady over there is. Do you want to meet her?" And she's lovely.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2020 2:43:15 GMT -5
Velly interesting...All the American League Central Division participants have been knocked out.
There were actually three virtual 10-team leagues this year, East, Central, and West, with no interleague play. Each had an AL and an NL division, with 2/3 of the game in your division and 1/3 outside (but distributed unevenly, 6-4-4-3-3 instead of 5 x 4).
So far the five East clubs are 5-1 against the other leagues (Rays / Jays were the only inter-virtual-league games, rather a lucky break for estimating the strengths of the leagues).
The Central earned 7 spots, and they are currently 3-12.
The four West clubs are 7-2.
I'm about to compile the stats for each division and league. But it's already clear that the Central was lousy, amnd that the Phillies and Giants almost certainly deserved the playoff spits that went to the Cardinals and Brewers. B-Ref dings Bauer big-time on WAR for this, simply by adjusting for the scoring of the teams he faced.
Given that, the Marlins beating the Cubs might not even be an upset. The Cadinals beating the Padres tomorrow would be a huge one.
And if both Central teams lose, then all four series feature within-division matchups, and in both leagues, the 1 seed plays a higher seed than the 2 seed. Re-seeding would have fixed both of those problems.
TB can get to the ALCS without having played an unfamiliar team.
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gerry
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Enter your message here...
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Post by gerry on Oct 2, 2020 3:04:01 GMT -5
Actually, if you’re an 8-year old cheering for a small- or mid-market team like Oakland that is fun to watch, shows you that a baseball player can look like anything (not just the prototypical “baseball body”), and is competitive during the regular season, you may not know much about the Moneyball approach, but you do appreciate it. And if you dream of playing ball for a living, knowing that you can carve out a career in a variety of ways is also something they will appreciate. Getting back to the point of this thread, I agree that the Padres getting bounced early is not good for baseball. Honestly, as someone who has lived on the East Coast and the West Coast, I don’t know if West Coast teams matter as much. When I lived there, I didn’t want to wait until 10:00 to start watching; and out here I have come to love 4:00 games and dread our own 7:00 (end at 10/10:30 games). My point is that the Padres getting bounced *should be* bad with their great young talent but... does it? Little as we might like it, the Yankees are probably the best outcome for baseball. Yuck!!!!!! Head exploding. Go Dodgers. Go Mookie. Go Dave. Go Blue!!!!
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,757
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Post by mobaz on Oct 2, 2020 7:37:45 GMT -5
I'm guessing Billy Beane is the leader in wins/$$ spent by a fair margin. Close. I only grabbed 2010-2019, but here were the most efficient teams in baseball: Team | Payroll | Wins | $$/win | Tampa Bay Rays
| 658,872,112
| 860
| 766,130
| Oakland Athletics
| 723,606,987
| 809
| 894,446
| Pittsburgh Pirates
| 732,757,162
| 792
| 925,198
| San Diego Padres
| 757,775,079
| 739
| 1,025,406
| Cleveland Indians
| 912,209,638
| 855
| 1,066,912
|
The other end of the spectrum: Team | Payroll | Wins | $$/win | San Francisco Giants
| 1,495,659,763
| 821
| 1,821,754
| Detroit Tigers
| 1,471,104,473
| 782
| 1,881,208
| Los Angeles Dodgers
| 1,800,725,353
| 919
| 1,959,440
| Boston Red Sox
| 1,820,144,803
| 872
| 2,087,322
| New York Yankees
| 2,028,135,448
| 921
| 2,202,101
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Source: www.thebaseballcube.com/topics/payrolls/byYear.asp?Y=2019Thanks! Dollars per playoff win would probably look less favorable for the Rays, A's and Indians. Might try myself when I'm at a computer instead of on a phone.
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2020 8:02:30 GMT -5
That is quite a statistic if you are an accountant. I’m sure 8-year-olds everywhere are in their backyards fantasizing about being a mid-expense free agent with a surprisingly high on-base percentage and cost/benefit ratio. Billy Beane saved the game of baseball by making it possible for small-market teams to compete with the likes of the Yankees and Dodgers, by outsmarting them. Take the current competitive balance mechanisms and square them ... that's what you'd need to have the current situation, if analytics hadn't made smarts far more important than revenue, and helped level the field.
I trust you'll celebrate if the Rays beat the Yankees. Stop and think why that's possible and you'll see how indefensible and/or hypocritical your position is.
Oh, and if there weren't analytics, we might be looking for our first WS victory rather than out fifth.
You know why I actually think the old-school fans dislike analytics? Because we told you that all the stats you loved as a kid were more or less bogus, and made you learn a whole bunch of new ones instead. "Joey I'm sorry, but your mother was an alcoholic and cheated on your Dad. We're giving you this stranger lady to serve as your new Mom." I can see how that might bother some people.
But for most of us, it was "Yeah, your suspicions were right: she was an alcoholic and a cheater ... but she wasn't your real mother. That lady over there is. Do you want to meet her?" And she's lovely.
First off, charming analogy. You have the soul of a poet. Second off, again “learning” the stats isn’t the issue. It is that they are abstracted from the game. Most people actually hate algebra, you know. If I say triple-double, you know some had a big fame in the NBA. When you start saying “well, pitcher x lost, but we know losses don’t mean anything, and he gave up 5 earned runs but that doesn’t mean anything because fielding independent and exit velocity blah blah it should have been 2,” you are saying the game in the quantum realm is more important than what people pay to see. And that you better bring your calculator to get what is going on. It is not simply a question of win/lose, right/wrong... it is like putting price tags and market analyses on paintings in a museum. As for the small markets competing... again this is a myth. Beane hasn’t won a World Series, but the A’s won a few before. The Rays haven’t won. The Royals won in 2015. But the last 20 years have been a lot of Sox, Astros, Cardinals, Giants.... the usual suspects. The 1980s were far stranger and less market reliant. We had a Pittsburgh win in 1979, a KC, a Baltimore, a Minnesota, Cincinnati in 1990. If small markets are more competitive for playoff spots, well, there are more of them. But then what? Are they winning championships at a different rate? Again, I congratulate Beane for his string of playoff appearances coming out of what is traditionally one of the weaker divisions and going on to play Brooklyn Brawler in the first round.
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Post by orion09 on Oct 2, 2020 8:02:41 GMT -5
I have not. Don’t care. Rather read Malamud. It has changed the sport, but for many of us it has made it worse. The revolution may help quantify how to win, but it has made it borrrrring. I mean, Pernell Whitaker was a far better fighter by all technical measures and won more and easier, but people would rather watch Arturo Gatti. The Hattebergs of the world might win games (but not World Series!), but I don’t want to pay to see them walk or whatever. Analytics have done almost nothing to make the sport less interesting to watch. The borrrrrring is 95% pitchers throwing harder.
For me, infield shifts are the biggest culprit. Not only have they cut down on seeing eye singles, they’ve cut down on infield webgems (the throw in the hole especially) Nothing you can do, it’s just the game making itself more efficient, but I don’t think they’ve helped
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2020 8:07:48 GMT -5
Analytics have done almost nothing to make the sport less interesting to watch. The borrrrrring is 95% pitchers throwing harder.
For me, infield shifts are the biggest culprit. Not only have they cut down on seeing eye singles, they’ve cut down on infield webgems (the throw in the hole especially) Nothing you can do, it’s just the game making itself more efficient, but I don’t think they’ve helped You could require two infielders on each side of second base.
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2020 8:15:23 GMT -5
I have not. Don’t care. Rather read Malamud. It has changed the sport, but for many of us it has made it worse. The revolution may help quantify how to win, but it has made it borrrrring. I mean, Pernell Whitaker was a far better fighter by all technical measures and won more and easier, but people would rather watch Arturo Gatti. The Hattebergs of the world might win games (but not World Series!), but I don’t want to pay to see them walk or whatever. Analytics have done almost nothing to make the sport less interesting to watch. The borrrrrring is 95% pitchers throwing harder.
But why? Obviously partly training etc. But also partly because the culture has said wins don’t matter, complete games don’t matter, go out and gas for as long as you can, then get the hook. And batters now accept Hundreds of strikeouts because they don’t matter analytically — though they do mean longer at bats ending in watching guys flail. Maybe fewer walks and fewer strikeouts was not the mathematically best approach, but watching guys go out looking to put the ball in play created a lot more action. Watching star pitchers go longer (with, by the way, no significant increase in health risk when they were not walking or striking out so many guys and keeping pitch counts reasonable) was more fun. And again... faster. Is it better to use openers etc? Maybe. But hardly inspiring.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 2, 2020 8:58:42 GMT -5
Graderol with the save last night...LOL
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 2, 2020 10:41:41 GMT -5
Why lol?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2020 17:26:44 GMT -5
Division RS and RA per game..
East AL: 4.91, 4.85 East NL: 4.99, 5.04
Central AL: 4.43, 4.23 Central NL: 4.07, 4.28. A dumpster fire, and they got 4 teams in the playoffs and they're 1-7.
West AL: 4.42, 4.81 West NL: 5.06, 4.66. Huge NL advantage here easily offsets the smaller AL ones in the other two virtual leagues.
Given the post-season results, it's clear that the low RS in the Central was awful offense, not great pitching.
The overall R/G in the East was 4.95, the West 4.74. We'll get out first two East - West matchups in the CS.
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2020 17:41:17 GMT -5
Cubs out, one to go. As long as the Cubs and Yanks lose, I’m fine with the results.
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Post by cba82 on Oct 2, 2020 18:47:14 GMT -5
Boy, does Mitch Moreland look ridiculous in that Padres uniform.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 2, 2020 19:34:08 GMT -5
Does it seem strange to anyone else that the Padres would employ an opener approach in a three game playoff series ? It's worked so far but....
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