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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 21, 2021 13:58:35 GMT -5
I'd generally agree that it's more fun to win with Homegrown players, but it's always a balance right? And I think fans (and if we're being honest, those saying here they want Homegrown guys to stick around) care more about just not having mercenaries than whether a guy is homegrown. I always point to '04 team. The line homegrown star got traded midyear! But guys like Pedro and Manny had been around long enough they felt like the same thing. Ortiz was in his second year with the club and we loved him already. I think what we want is not to just have a full churn. It's really cool when a guy spends his career with your favorite team because you spend your fandom with that team as well. I get that and feel the same! But it probably, at base, is very similar to the common refrain about clubhouse chemistry, in which there's something of a chicken/egg issue with winning and happy locker rooms. Recall when the MLB team wasn't doing well under Cherington and people wanted him to start dealing from the farm to fix it rather than hoarding? Best case is 2018 where home-grown stars lead your team to a championship, but I don't buy the "I'd rather lose with homegrown guys than win with free agents" sentiment. Ok... really last thing: as I said I’m not Manichean... nor am I dogmatic. The context is Xander. This is a guy who has been huge and is 28. If there is any guy (well, now...) to commit to, it is him. I am not saying commit to *everyone* — hell, I’ve been advocating trading CVaz for a year and a half. And I’m not saying there is only one way to do things. I will say, with a guy like JDM, a guy I consider the ultimate automaton FA piece, when he retires, I will have zero memory or affection. I appreciate his help, and he has been paid. Transaction complete. But to me, when a Yankee fan walks with his kid into Yankee Stadium and points to Jeter’s number, he gets a glow thinking of rings, the captain etc.... there is no grousing about range in his last few years. That shared experience transcends other stuff. I would like to imagine someday that will be the case with Xander. I agree. From someone who's been mostly on board with Bloom's process so far and understanding the competitive/business reality that causes beloved players to move on or be traded, I'd like to see Xander here long term. He's kind of the last guy left who's been here through two WS wins and as a face of the team who grew up in the organization Sox since he was a baseball baby. Fortunately, I have a feeling the team is going to agree and get something done to keep him here, and he's always sounded like he wants to be here forever too. Amidst all the moves, there is an intangible value to retaining Xander (beyond his obvious on-field value) as a Sox lifer and symbol of excellence, continuity, and leadership. Should an eventual position switch be necessary, they can cross that bridge when it comes.
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Post by manfred on Feb 21, 2021 14:24:23 GMT -5
I never said I don’t follow guys in the low minors. I said I don’t count on them. I’m not penciling lineups for 2026 with Rookie ball players. That is a huge difference. Go back and read what you said, you said it was weird to follow players in their teens. I love your passion, yet you are all over the place. Listen, I accept that contain multitudes. But these “discussions” are moving targets. I made a specific, limited point... it is incumbent upon the Sox to keep Xander. And, yes, I predicated that on the principle that it is more fun to keep home grown guys. This is a chatboard to which I write from my phone, so perhaps I didn’t elaborate to the XXth codicil, though I have repeatedly sought to make clear that a) there is necessarily a balance; and b) I am not the St. Peter upon whom the Church of the Home Grown will flourish. But from Xander, suddenly I am getting responses with “what abouts...” galore: Pedro (sure!), Papi (of course), Beckett (?!?! Really?)... and once that happens, yeah, it gets a bit all over the place. I cannot give percentages, I cannot name every name, and I can’t guarantee we won’t get left holding the bag with a guy like Pedroia. I feel much better about paying Pedroia to sit than a) paying Pablo to play; or b) not paying someone and then running musical chairs platoons or waiver pickups through positions.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 21, 2021 15:03:40 GMT -5
The collective bargaining agreement has a huge impact on how front offices spends and whether it is worth it to keep players long term. Fans forget that players who are drafted and sign are stuck with the team who signs them for as many as seven years or longer (Workman drafted in 2010 just became a FA this offseason - 10 years after being drafted). If the player is not fond of the team, town, weather, or for other reasons they WILL leave! The player is free to make that choice and there is NOTHING the team can do to stop the player from leaving through free agency other than offering more money. I for one would sign a smaller contract to live where I want! We only live once and to me it is worth a little less as every day and year is precious. I love the Red Sox and have been a huge fan for 51 years (watch every game, have read every box score AAA, AA, A the last 51 years), but my family is scattered in the western half of the USA. I would never resign with the Red Sox because of family, hate the humidity, allergies... You can not blame players who choose to move on to somewhere else. You also can not blame teams for looking for the next star. Older players get hurt more, decline faster, and become less effective as they age (except David Ortiz). Young players simply are a lesser risk. Turnover is inevitable in baseball and life. This is certainly true, and if guys leave to make huge amounts for the Padres, who can blame them. But I think many guys also know that it still means something to play your whole career for one team. Also, you come ip with guys who become your friends, your support system etc. And on... all I mean is scenarios go in all directions. I actually often wonder about getting traded or leaving a team on a human level. When I was 28, say, the idea of moving towns, having all new coworkers etc. and just having to jump right in to max performance? That would be a struggle. I don’t mean this as a direct response... more just musing. Being traded has to be hard on players and hard on their families! It is hard on players performance to. If their usage pattern changes. On the baseball side you see Moreland putting up great numbers in Boston in 2020, because he is only hitting against right handed pitchers. San Diego makes him a full time DH and his numbers tank.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 21, 2021 15:50:24 GMT -5
This is certainly true, and if guys leave to make huge amounts for the Padres, who can blame them. But I think many guys also know that it still means something to play your whole career for one team. Also, you come ip with guys who become your friends, your support system etc. And on... all I mean is scenarios go in all directions. I actually often wonder about getting traded or leaving a team on a human level. When I was 28, say, the idea of moving towns, having all new coworkers etc. and just having to jump right in to max performance? That would be a struggle. I don’t mean this as a direct response... more just musing. Being traded has to be hard on players and hard on their families! It is hard on players performance to. If their usage pattern changes. On the baseball side you see Moreland putting up great numbers in Boston in 2020, because he is only hitting against right handed pitchers. San Diego makes him a full time DH and his numbers tank. Being traded is part of sports. Most of these players have been on a different team every year, all over the map, from ages 14 to 24. It not near as big as deal as you may think. Remember that players are not usually fans of the team they are playing on. It’s a job. I’m not saying players hearts are not into it, but anybody that has played competitive sports will understand what I mean. Your teammates and room become close, but there are also times to move on, try new experiences and try for new achievements. Not many players stay in one organization there whole carear and stay happy/content. As for families, and moving, most athletes live at there “home”. not where they play, but where they live in the off-season, where they are from. There are defiantly exceptions to this, but the normal dose not have RedSox players living in Boston. I love JBJ, always did. to bad he couldn’t be more consistent. Everything is there to be a great player. Anyway, I don’t see the Sox bringing him back. I think it’s good PR by the FO. But come on guys, he’s not signing a 1/6M deal. He signed Boras. Going in you know this is what may happen. I’m pretty sure he will end up with a good deal. Maybe not the 4/5 years they were shooting for. But 3/24-27 is probably still there. And if he Is going to take a one year deal it’s not going to be for less AAV.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Feb 21, 2021 16:34:43 GMT -5
Dodgers had buehler ( who was a late first round pick as a pitcher coming off Tommy John and was an overdraft at that). Kershaw ( legit) verdugo ( who wasn’t that highly rated) bellinger ( wasn’t major prospect). Lux ( hasn’t done anything yet). Smith ( another non top prospect). They Kershaw was only major prospect of them accept lux who hasn’t done anything yet. My point remains. We will build through draft, trades, and international deals. Major free agent signings ( accept very targeted ones) won’t be prevalent. I don’t view a top 50 prospect as a major elite guy. We will build exactly as we are now, with depth and options and the ability to trade some away for an elite player at a hole when it appears. So sticking with title of this thread I feel shortstop will be a target area at first pick especially with uncertainty of Xander. We will build to compete regularly. Rather than dominate for 2-3 years and then be flat The MLB draft simply doesn’t work that way. The Red Sox and every other team will draft whoever they consider the best player available regardless of position. You can advocate twenty reasons why any given draft eligible player is “the best player available” at any pick of any round, but position isn’t a consideration. It just isn’t.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 21, 2021 16:40:21 GMT -5
Who even knows if X is a viable defensive SS after two more season? It's not just X. Even with Story, any free agent SS you sign, that unless they're 25 or younger, you're going to have to seriously consider moving them off of SS at some point, which you have to consider when making that contract offer. With X, that means you're going to wind up paying big $ for most of a new contract with him at 3b and a declining season or two of being a SS. Again, not saying they shouldn't re-sign X. Just saying that he'll be looking to get paid as a SS, but will most likely be a 3b. If anybody left on this roster should be a Red Sox for life, it's X. Then again, I thought the same thing about Mookie and that didn't happen, about Jon Lester, and that didn't happen, etc. At the end of the day it's an emotional attachment, but I'm still loyal to the laundry (although I can still be happy for the emotional attachment like being happy/wistful for Mookie or Tom Brady of finding championship success, even if it's not with my teams.) It just feels useless to spend energy thinking about this now, because it's the most stable position in the whole organization for the time being. It would be one thing if someone was making the case that we need to trade Bogaerts right now, but this thread is mostly clueless speculation about whether he opts out 2 years from now and whether he'd refuse to move to 3B.
We don't know what the CBT will look like then. We don't know what the SS market will look like then. We don't even know if Xander will be good then. So what's the point? Why not make a thread stressing about the future of third base once Devers retires? I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 21, 2021 18:08:35 GMT -5
It just feels useless to spend energy thinking about this now, because it's the most stable position in the whole organization for the time being. It would be one thing if someone was making the case that we need to trade Bogaerts right now, but this thread is mostly clueless speculation about whether he opts out 2 years from now and whether he'd refuse to move to 3B.
We don't know what the CBT will look like then. We don't know what the SS market will look like then. We don't even know if Xander will be good then. So what's the point? Why not make a thread stressing about the future of third base once Devers retires? I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first. Xander's defense is below-average, but both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus think it's perfectly passable. If you think he was one of the biggest problems with the team last year, we're probably just not going to agree on this.
Edit: While I think your plan to sign Trevor Story, who's the same age as Bogaerts and probably worse than him, is a weird one, it's the kind of idea that's worth talking about. But most of the posts in this thread are not actually proposed solutions, it's just people wildly speculating about what Bogaerts' will be thinking about 2 years from now, which is silly.
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Post by manfred on Feb 21, 2021 18:15:27 GMT -5
I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first. Xander's defense is below-average, but both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus think it's perfectly passable. If you think he was one of the biggest problems with the team last year, we're probably just not going to agree on this. I love these threads... someone says maybe we should not pay Xander a fortune and by the end he’s a huge liability. Isn’t this the way? I guess I should be happy for the guys that get away... I doubt fans in LA, KC, whatever crap on their stars like this.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 21, 2021 19:12:39 GMT -5
It just feels useless to spend energy thinking about this now, because it's the most stable position in the whole organization for the time being. It would be one thing if someone was making the case that we need to trade Bogaerts right now, but this thread is mostly clueless speculation about whether he opts out 2 years from now and whether he'd refuse to move to 3B.
We don't know what the CBT will look like then. We don't know what the SS market will look like then. We don't even know if Xander will be good then. So what's the point? Why not make a thread stressing about the future of third base once Devers retires? I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first. WOW. The pitching staff wasn’t so hot last year because it was terrible. One of the worst starting rotations ever assembled. Do you remember all of the guys who started games??? Hall Hart Godley Mazza Weber Brewer Kickam leyer I probably missed some. Fact is the Sox tanked last year. Various reasons why. Some warented. But not for one second should any of us pretend the defence caused the pitching issues. On top of that I’m not sure how many of you have played the game but there is nothing harder on defence than poor pitching. More balls in play, more time on field, long innings, frustration, ect. I think we can all agree Devers defence may play at 3rd. Only time will tell and Xman is an average SS who in the next years will probably need a position change. But these arnt butchers in the field and a better pitching staff will probably go a long way to making them better defenders.
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Post by rasimon on Feb 21, 2021 19:22:37 GMT -5
I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first. WOW. The pitching staff wasn’t so hot last year because it was terrible. One of the worst starting rotations ever assembled. Do you remember all of the guys who started games??? Hall Hart Godley Mazza Weber Brewer Kickam leyer I probably missed some. Fact is the Sox tanked last year. Various reasons why. Some warented. But not for one second should any of us pretend the defence caused the pitching issues. On top of that I’m not sure how many of you have played the game but there is nothing harder on defence than poor pitching. More balls in play, more time on field, long innings, frustration, ect. I think we can all agree Devers defence may play at 3rd. Only time will tell and Xman is an average SS who in the next years will probably need a position change. But these arnt butchers in the field and a better pitching staff will probably go a long way to making them better defenders. Osich Brice Brasier Twiggs
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 21, 2021 20:06:48 GMT -5
WOW. The pitching staff wasn’t so hot last year because it was terrible. One of the worst starting rotations ever assembled. Do you remember all of the guys who started games??? Hall Hart Godley Mazza Weber Brewer Kickam leyer I probably missed some. Fact is the Sox tanked last year. Various reasons why. Some warented. But not for one second should any of us pretend the defence caused the pitching issues. On top of that I’m not sure how many of you have played the game but there is nothing harder on defence than poor pitching. More balls in play, more time on field, long innings, frustration, ect. I think we can all agree Devers defence may play at 3rd. Only time will tell and Xman is an average SS who in the next years will probably need a position change. But these arnt butchers in the field and a better pitching staff will probably go a long way to making them better defenders. Osich Brice Brasier Twiggs 10 of those pitchers have no place on a 40’man roster.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 21, 2021 20:15:57 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not going to act like the fielding on the left side of the infield was strong last year but it seems a stretch to say they were one of the main reasons the staff struggled last year. That was clearly a talent thing more than a fielding issue.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 21, 2021 22:04:09 GMT -5
Ok... really last thing: as I said I’m not Manichean... nor am I dogmatic. The context is Xander. This is a guy who has been huge and is 28. If there is any guy (well, now...) to commit to, it is him. I am not saying commit to *everyone* — hell, I’ve been advocating trading CVaz for a year and a half. And I’m not saying there is only one way to do things. I will say, with a guy like JDM, a guy I consider the ultimate automaton FA piece, when he retires, I will have zero memory or affection. I appreciate his help, and he has been paid. Transaction complete. But to me, when a Yankee fan walks with his kid into Yankee Stadium and points to Jeter’s number, he gets a glow thinking of rings, the captain etc.... there is no grousing about range in his last few years. That shared experience transcends other stuff. I would like to imagine someday that will be the case with Xander. I agree. From someone who's been mostly on board with Bloom's process so far and understanding the competitive/business reality that causes beloved players to move on or be traded, I'd like to see Xander here long term. He's kind of the last guy left who's been here through two WS wins and as a face of the team who grew up in the organization Sox since he was a baseball baby. Fortunately, I have a feeling the team is going to agree and get something done to keep him here, and he's always sounded like he wants to be here forever too. Amidst all the moves, there is an intangible value to retaining Xander (beyond his obvious on-field value) as a Sox lifer and symbol of excellence, continuity, and leadership. Should an eventual position switch be necessary, they can cross that bridge when it comes. I'm with the people in this discussion who want Bogaerts here for a long time, but I want to address another, somewhat related issue: How should we, as fans, judge players? I felt the same way as Manfred about JDM (he's a pro but non-charismatic and unemotional) before seeing him for a couple of days working in the back fields in ST in 2019. Players move from field to field working on different things. For someone like me who is interested in the mechanics of athletic swings (baseball, golf, tennis), it was a treat to see a focused craftsman like JDM at work when he hit the ball the other way (by far the best of those I saw). More important for our purposes here, perhaps, he came off as a good teammate, offering support and advice to others in his group while setting a great example with his work ethic and sense of purpose. On a fairly regular basis, players move from one field to another. You can pay a little extra to stand inside the fences and interact with the players as they move around. Most players say hello and hustle on quickly, but JDM lingered a moment to chat briefly with fans. He also turned and exchanged a few words with the common folk (like me) fenced outside the field, something which no other player did while I was there. It was nice: low-key, friendly, gracious. I've been coaching (but not baseball) for a long time, and JDM, based on what I saw on those occasions, is someone I want on my team. I expect him to opt out after this year (which links us back to X), but I will root hard for him as long as he is here and appreciate what he has brought to this franchise.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 22, 2021 1:12:45 GMT -5
I agree. From someone who's been mostly on board with Bloom's process so far and understanding the competitive/business reality that causes beloved players to move on or be traded, I'd like to see Xander here long term. He's kind of the last guy left who's been here through two WS wins and as a face of the team who grew up in the organization Sox since he was a baseball baby. Fortunately, I have a feeling the team is going to agree and get something done to keep him here, and he's always sounded like he wants to be here forever too. Amidst all the moves, there is an intangible value to retaining Xander (beyond his obvious on-field value) as a Sox lifer and symbol of excellence, continuity, and leadership. Should an eventual position switch be necessary, they can cross that bridge when it comes. I'm with the people in this discussion who want Bogaerts here for a long time, but I want to address another, somewhat related issue: How should we, as fans, judge players? I felt the same way as Manfred about JDM (he's a pro but non-charismatic and unemotional) before seeing him for a couple of days working in the back fields in ST in 2019. Players move from field to field working on different things. For someone like me who is interested in the mechanics of athletic swings (baseball, golf, tennis), it was a treat to see a focused craftsman like JDM at work when he hit the ball the other way (by far the best of those I saw). More important for our purposes here, perhaps, he came off as a good teammate, offering support and advice to others in his group while setting a great example with his work ethic and sense of purpose. On a fairly regular basis, players move from one field to another. You can pay a little extra to stand inside the fences and interact with the players as they move around. Most players say hello and hustle on quickly, but JDM lingered a moment to chat briefly with fans. He also turned and exchanged a few words with the common folk (like me) fenced outside the field, something which no other player did while I was there. It was nice: low-key, friendly, gracious. I've been coaching (but not baseball) for a long time, and JDM, based on what I saw on those occasions, is someone I want on my team. I expect him to opt out after this year (which links us back to X), but I will root hard for him as long as he is here and appreciate what he has brought to this franchise. Bogaerts is a very good hitter. If he does not opt out, I could see him as a decent left fielder, and Devers could eventually move to DH. Hopefully the Red Sox will make the effort to keep these players, but it takes two sides to complete a deal, so hopefully the players want to stay.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 3:51:17 GMT -5
I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first. I think we can all agree Devers defence may play at 3rd. Only time will tell and Xman is an average SS who in the next years will probably need a position change. But these arnt butchers in the field and a better pitching staff will probably go a long way to making them better defenders. Since 2016 Xander has been a -10 DRS or worse defender at short stop. He was -5 DRS in 56 games last season. The fact is Xander has turned into Derek Jeter over there. Basically unplayable at short stop due to range. Devers has been -14 DRS in 2018 and -10 DRS in 2019. He was -6 DRS at third base last year in 57 games. This is a huge problem, and it's why I said what I said. The pitching staff had no talent whatsoever, but even THEY would have had better results if the Sox improved to average infielders on the left side of the infield last year. It is a huge problem. The metrics indicate it as a huge problem. They’ve both been unplayable at both of their respective positions according to DRS for a while now.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 22, 2021 5:17:01 GMT -5
You are persistent. Let’s see how 2021 plays out. My hope is Sir Xander stays at SS as long as he can and retires a Red Sox. I remember when Yaz switched to 1B and did a good job, even as he mentored JimEd in LF. If XB is still with the Sox in a decade, yes please, with his bat and leadership it won’t matter much what position he plays.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 5:28:52 GMT -5
I hope Xander stays too, he'd probably be a solid third baseman in time. The next Cal Ripen Jr. to make the switch and be solid at third base. He's got the solid hands to do it. He just isn't a short stop, is my point. I can't see Xander wearing another uniform. He's a perfect Fenway bat, so he remains a fit offensively for easily the next 5 years.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 8:10:30 GMT -5
I don't feel it's useless talking about this now. Xander is barely a short stop right *now.* He and Devers were one of the main reasons why the pitching staff weren't pitching so hot last year. The pitching would have still be bad, don't get me wrong, but there was a whole lot of base hits that should have been outs on the left side of the infield. By a wide margin at that, too. The third base and short stop positions aren't stable right now defensively. That's kind of the point here. It feels actually very stop gappish because Devers just feels like a future DH and Xander would be best with less range at third base, maybe LF Fenway. Ohh and anyone looking to trade Xander right now, it's more complicated than that. His no trade clause just kicked in this past off-season. You can't trade him without his permission first. Xander's defense is below-average, but both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus think it's perfectly passable. If you think he was one of the biggest problems with the team last year, we're probably just not going to agree on this.
Edit: While I think your plan to sign Trevor Story, who's the same age as Bogaerts and probably worse than him, is a weird one, it's the kind of idea that's worth talking about. But most of the posts in this thread are not actually proposed solutions, it's just people wildly speculating about what Bogaerts' will be thinking about 2 years from now, which is silly.
Trevor Story is probably the best short stop in baseball right now, right next to Lindor. Who is probably worse than Xander? What? Trevor Story has been worth 5.6 bWAR in 2018. 6.1 bWAR in 2019. 2.4 bWAR in 59 games last year. Xander was worth 4.3 bWAR in 2018. 5.9 bWAR in 2019. 1.5 bWAR in 56 games in 2020. Trevor Story has been consistently better. Defensively it's not even close right now. Trevor Story- +14 DRS in 2016 +11 DRS in 2017 +1 DRS in 2018 +14 DRS in 2019 +5 DRS in 2020 Xander- -10 DRS in 2016 -12 DRS in 2017 -14 DRS in 2018 -14 DRS in 2019 -5 DRS in 2020 Exactly how is Story worse? In some of these years, there's a 20 run difference in defense alone. That's enough to jump a pitching staff's ERA by at least a quarter of a point.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 8:46:22 GMT -5
Xander's defense is below-average, but both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus think it's perfectly passable. If you think he was one of the biggest problems with the team last year, we're probably just not going to agree on this.
Edit: While I think your plan to sign Trevor Story, who's the same age as Bogaerts and probably worse than him, is a weird one, it's the kind of idea that's worth talking about. But most of the posts in this thread are not actually proposed solutions, it's just people wildly speculating about what Bogaerts' will be thinking about 2 years from now, which is silly.
Trevor Story is probably the best short stop in baseball right now, right next to Lindor. Who is probably worse than Xander? What? Trevor Story has been worth 5.6 bWAR in 2018. 6.1 bWAR in 2019. 2.4 bWAR in 59 games last year. Xander was worth 4.3 bWAR in 2018. 5.9 bWAR in 2019. 1.5 bWAR in 56 games in 2020. Trevor Story has been consistently better. Defensively it's not even close right now. Trevor Story- +14 DRS in 2016 +11 DRS in 2017 +1 DRS in 2018 +14 DRS in 2019 +5 DRS in 2020 Xander- -10 DRS in 2016 -12 DRS in 2017 -14 DRS in 2018 -14 DRS in 2019 -5 DRS in 2020 Exactly how is Story worse? In some of these years, there's a 20 run difference in defense alone. That's enough to jump a pitching staff's ERA by at least a quarter of a point. Yet Xander's UZR/150 over the last five years have been -2.2, -0.9, 1.3, 0.8, 0.2. Which is pretty much average. This is also one reason his fWAR totals compare more favorably to Story's: 21.7 to 17.9.
Who knows with these defensive stats. But having watched him play, I don't think "borderline unplayable" is a remotely fair characterization of his defense. He looks to me like an average to slightly below average defender, which he obviously more than makes up for with his bat.
I certainly think he might need to move off the position eventually. But he's still only 28, and that move isn't necessarily imminent.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 8:52:14 GMT -5
Trevor Story is probably the best short stop in baseball right now, right next to Lindor. Who is probably worse than Xander? What? Trevor Story has been worth 5.6 bWAR in 2018. 6.1 bWAR in 2019. 2.4 bWAR in 59 games last year. Xander was worth 4.3 bWAR in 2018. 5.9 bWAR in 2019. 1.5 bWAR in 56 games in 2020. Trevor Story has been consistently better. Defensively it's not even close right now. Trevor Story- +14 DRS in 2016 +11 DRS in 2017 +1 DRS in 2018 +14 DRS in 2019 +5 DRS in 2020 Xander- -10 DRS in 2016 -12 DRS in 2017 -14 DRS in 2018 -14 DRS in 2019 -5 DRS in 2020 Exactly how is Story worse? In some of these years, there's a 20 run difference in defense alone. That's enough to jump a pitching staff's ERA by at least a quarter of a point. Yet Xander's UZR/150 over the last five years have been -2.2, -0.9, 1.3, 0.8, 0.2. Which is pretty much average. This is also one reason his fWAR totals compare more favorably to Story's: 21.7 to 17.9.
Who knows with these defensive stats. But having watched him play, I don't think "borderline unplayable" is a remotely fair characterization of his defense. He looks to me like an average to slightly below average defender, which he obviously more than makes up for with his bat.
I certainly think he might need to move off the position eventually. But he's still only 28, and that move isn't necessarily imminent.
This just tells me that if Xander is average at short stop range wise according to one stat, then he would be a tick above average for third base and the Sox would still be a lot better with Story at short stop. I'll leave it at that, however.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 8:59:19 GMT -5
I wonder if he has the quickness and reaction time to play a corner infield spot though? For some reason I have a hard time picturing him at the hot corner, though that's just kind of a vague sense.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2021 10:02:08 GMT -5
I wonder if he has the quickness and reaction time to play a corner infield spot though? For some reason I have a hard time picturing him at the hot corner, though that's just kind of a vague sense. 2013 post-season? 11 games.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 10:08:52 GMT -5
Buddy, I have trouble picturing what I did last week, let alone something that happened 8 years ago. (Also it was only 11 games and he was 21.) But refresh my memory... how did he look?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 22, 2021 11:34:38 GMT -5
Yet Xander's UZR/150 over the last five years have been -2.2, -0.9, 1.3, 0.8, 0.2. Which is pretty much average. This is also one reason his fWAR totals compare more favorably to Story's: 21.7 to 17.9.
Who knows with these defensive stats. But having watched him play, I don't think "borderline unplayable" is a remotely fair characterization of his defense. He looks to me like an average to slightly below average defender, which he obviously more than makes up for with his bat.
I certainly think he might need to move off the position eventually. But he's still only 28, and that move isn't necessarily imminent.
This just tells me that if Xander is average at short stop range wise according to one stat, then he would be a tick above average for third base and the Sox would still be a lot better with Story at short stop. I'll leave it at that, however. You say "according to one stat" dismissively as if you aren't also using one stat (DRS) to show that he's bad. I do think Boston would obviously be better if they kept Bogaerts and added Trevor Story because Trevor Story is good, but if you swapped Bogaerts off the team altogether and replaced him with Story, it's a very open question whether they would be better.
The bigger point for me is that if you want to replace Bogaerts with a better defender, go get somebody young who will definitely be able to stick at the position. Story is good for now, but who knows how he will look when he's on the wrong side of 30.
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Post by rasimon on Feb 22, 2021 11:39:01 GMT -5
This just tells me that if Xander is average at short stop range wise according to one stat, then he would be a tick above average for third base and the Sox would still be a lot better with Story at short stop. I'll leave it at that, however. You say "according to one stat" dismissively as if you aren't also using one stat (DRS) to show that he's bad. I do think Boston would obviously be better if they kept Bogaerts and added Trevor Story because Trevor Story is good, but if you swapped Bogaerts off the team altogether and replaced him with Story, it's a very open question whether they would be better.
The bigger point for me is that if you want to replace Bogaerts with a better defender, go get somebody young who will definitely be able to stick at the position. Story is good for now, but who knows how he will look when he's on the wrong side of 30.
This was the reason many of us were advocating Ha-Seong Kim. But that did not happen.
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