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Post by manfred on Feb 22, 2021 11:45:00 GMT -5
This just tells me that if Xander is average at short stop range wise according to one stat, then he would be a tick above average for third base and the Sox would still be a lot better with Story at short stop. I'll leave it at that, however. You say "according to one stat" dismissively as if you aren't also using one stat (DRS) to show that he's bad. I do think Boston would obviously be better if they kept Bogaerts and added Trevor Story because Trevor Story is good, but if you swapped Bogaerts off the team altogether and replaced him with Story, it's a very open question whether they would be better.
The bigger point for me is that if you want to replace Bogaerts with a better defender, go get somebody young who will definitely be able to stick at the position. Story is good for now, but who knows how he will look when he's on the wrong side of 30.
But X is a strength. Why sign a ss when there are far bigger holes? I’m fine with the larger principle this started with — poster said draft his replacement. Well, I don’t think they should earmark their #1 pick as ss, but broadly, they should be thinking that in 3 years, X will be at a different position. But signing a 30-year old ss next off season seems like a terrible use of resources.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 22, 2021 12:28:42 GMT -5
I admittedly didn't watch much baseball last year, and the sample size is so small, but it's interesting how much better Xander hit on the road last year. I know it wasn't the typical road environment, but he consistently hit better at Fenway prior to this past season (other than 2013). Maybe COVID forced him to change his road routine and something clicked and it carries over. Again, I recognize he played in 56 games last year so this could just be noise, and I'm not suggesting he definitely changed something significant in his routine.
EDIT: Looking further, it seems like his road damage came against lefties.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 22, 2021 12:45:07 GMT -5
I admittedly didn't watch much baseball last year, and the sample size is so small, but it's interesting how much better Xander hit on the road last year. I know it wasn't the typical road environment, but he consistently hit better at Fenway prior to this past season (other than 2013). Maybe COVID forced him to change his road routine and something clicked and it carries over. Again, I recognize he played in 56 games last year so this could just be noise, and I'm not suggesting he definitely changed something significant in his routine. EDIT: Looking further, it seems like his road damage came against lefties. SSS, as you say (consider that it's 28 games each, and a difference of five hits...), but also consider that the schedule was completely different, as they stayed within the East. Personally, I'm throwing out 2020 for the most part in terms of using it to evaluate players.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2021 12:51:22 GMT -5
Buddy, I have trouble picturing what I did last week, let alone something that happened 8 years ago. (Also it was only 11 games and he was 21.) But refresh my memory... how did he look? Seemed fine. Played 44 games at 3b in 2014 too.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 13:17:39 GMT -5
This just tells me that if Xander is average at short stop range wise according to one stat, then he would be a tick above average for third base and the Sox would still be a lot better with Story at short stop. I'll leave it at that, however. You say "according to one stat" dismissively as if you aren't also using one stat (DRS) to show that he's bad. I do think Boston would obviously be better if they kept Bogaerts and added Trevor Story because Trevor Story is good, but if you swapped Bogaerts off the team altogether and replaced him with Story, it's a very open question whether they would be better.
The bigger point for me is that if you want to replace Bogaerts with a better defender, go get somebody young who will definitely be able to stick at the position. Story is good for now, but who knows how he will look when he's on the wrong side of 30.
Defensive Runs Saved is really one of the King defensive stats we have. It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat. Story is a elite defender and should stick into his 30's at short stop, it's not really a question, unless injuries kick in. He has a gun over there. Who knows about someone 5 years from now? You have to count on the system to handle that for you at short stop. Sign Story for 6 or 7 years and figure out what to do with him in years 6/7.
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Post by manfred on Feb 22, 2021 13:27:44 GMT -5
You say "according to one stat" dismissively as if you aren't also using one stat (DRS) to show that he's bad. I do think Boston would obviously be better if they kept Bogaerts and added Trevor Story because Trevor Story is good, but if you swapped Bogaerts off the team altogether and replaced him with Story, it's a very open question whether they would be better.
The bigger point for me is that if you want to replace Bogaerts with a better defender, go get somebody young who will definitely be able to stick at the position. Story is good for now, but who knows how he will look when he's on the wrong side of 30.
Defensive Runs Saved is really one of the King defensive stats we have. It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat. Story is a elite defender and should stick into his 30's at short stop, it's not really a question, unless injuries kick in. He has a gun over there. Who knows about someone 5 years from now? You have to count on the system to handle that for you at short stop. Sign Story for 6 or 7 years and figure out what to do with him in year 6 or 7. This is crazy to me. You have, basically, one superstar. So you spend bog and long on THAT position? They are a black hole at 2b and OF for the medium run. The staff is short term — a bunch of endterm contracts on 30+ year olds. And they should prioritize ss? As for the stat comp... there is a huge difference. ERA measures actual objective runs. Anyone can pour over box scores and find them. “Runs saved” are hypotheticals based on all kinds of assumptions. The most subjective part of ERA is the E part, since errors are subjective.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 13:35:47 GMT -5
Defensive Runs Saved is really one of the King defensive stats we have. It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat. Story is a elite defender and should stick into his 30's at short stop, it's not really a question, unless injuries kick in. He has a gun over there. Who knows about someone 5 years from now? You have to count on the system to handle that for you at short stop. Sign Story for 6 or 7 years and figure out what to do with him in year 6 or 7. This is crazy to me. You have, basically, one superstar. So you spend bog and long on THAT position? They are a black hole at 2b and OF for the medium run. The staff is short term — a bunch of endterm contracts on 30+ year olds. And they should prioritize ss? As for the stat comp... there is a huge difference. ERA measures actual objective runs. Anyone can pour over box scores and find them. “Runs saved” are hypotheticals based on all kinds of assumptions. The most subjective part of ERA is the E part, since errors are subjective. They have internal answers at 2nd base and CF in Duran and Downs. They have internal answers for the rotation and bullpen coming in Houck, Mata, Seabold and others coming. Yeah they can afford one splurge and get one of the best short stops in baseball to improve infield defense.
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Post by manfred on Feb 22, 2021 14:02:02 GMT -5
This is crazy to me. You have, basically, one superstar. So you spend bog and long on THAT position? They are a black hole at 2b and OF for the medium run. The staff is short term — a bunch of endterm contracts on 30+ year olds. And they should prioritize ss? As for the stat comp... there is a huge difference. ERA measures actual objective runs. Anyone can pour over box scores and find them. “Runs saved” are hypotheticals based on all kinds of assumptions. The most subjective part of ERA is the E part, since errors are subjective. They have internal answers at 2nd base and CF in Duran and Downs. They have internal answers for the rotation and bullpen coming in Houck, Mata, Seabold and others coming. Yeah they can afford one splurge and get one of the best short stops in baseball to improve infield defense. None of those are star replacements — they may be good, but especially the pitchers, you are still looking at 3-5 slots at best. They are all fine, but with JDM aging, Sale aging, this team is going to need a few A-listers. Add: here is what always baffles me. X is an all-star ss whose glove is not great but makes up for it with his bat, and age 28.... so might still have a next level season in him at some point. That defense is enough that people are ready to move on, move him etc. But then, in the same discussion, you treat Downs as an “answer,” Seabold as an “answer.” What question have those guys answered that X hasn’t? We don’t know that Downs will be able to hit his ass with two hands at the major league level, but you seem more ready to plug him at 2b than Xander at SS? Seabold, who has been fine but hardly elite at A+ ball and AA... he plugs in with greater certainty than a guy who was 5th in MVP voting his last full season?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 22, 2021 14:15:34 GMT -5
You say "according to one stat" dismissively as if you aren't also using one stat (DRS) to show that he's bad. I do think Boston would obviously be better if they kept Bogaerts and added Trevor Story because Trevor Story is good, but if you swapped Bogaerts off the team altogether and replaced him with Story, it's a very open question whether they would be better.
The bigger point for me is that if you want to replace Bogaerts with a better defender, go get somebody young who will definitely be able to stick at the position. Story is good for now, but who knows how he will look when he's on the wrong side of 30.
Defensive Runs Saved is really one of the King defensive stats we have. It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat. Sure, it's one of the biggest defensive stats. So is UZR, which says X is fine. The teams will have their own metrics which are better than those, and we don't know if those metrics are closer to agreeing with DRS or UZR in Bogaerts' case.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 14:33:20 GMT -5
They have internal answers at 2nd base and CF in Duran and Downs. They have internal answers for the rotation and bullpen coming in Houck, Mata, Seabold and others coming. Yeah they can afford one splurge and get one of the best short stops in baseball to improve infield defense. None of those are star replacements — they may be good, but especially the pitchers, you are still looking at 3-5 slots at best. They are all fine, but with JDM aging, Sale aging, this team is going to need a few A-listers. Add: here is what always baffles me. X is an all-star ss whose glove is not great but makes up for it with his bat, and age 28.... so might still have a next level season in him at some point. That defense is enough that people are ready to move on, move him etc. But then, in the same discussion, you treat Downs as an “answer,” Seabold as an “answer.” What question have those guys answered that X hasn’t? We don’t know that Downs will be able to hit his ass with two hands at the major league level, but you seem more ready to plug him at 2b than Xander at SS? Seabold, who has been fine but hardly elite at A+ ball and AA... he plugs in with greater certainty than a guy who was 5th in MVP voting his last full season? I mostly agree, but I think electricityverdugo99's idea makes some sense if you treat it as a conditional statement: "If Bogaerts has to be moved off of SS, Story could be a good signing." It makes even more sense if you think Devers will have to be moved off of 3B and that Bogaerts could be good there, so that by signing Story you'd be upgrading two defensive positions.
I'm just not nearly so pessimistic about the defense of either of those guys (and think "borderline unplayable" is a crazy characterization of where Xander is right now). The Jeter comp is the bad scenario, but I remember reading about how part of Jeter's problem was that he had a fragile ego that the lickspittle media indulged and made him out to be a great defensive SS even though he plainly sucked, and he believed it. So at some point (2008ish?) Brian Cashman went and had an awkward conversation with him where Cashman explained, in so many words, that he sucked at defense. But so then Jeter... decided to work on his defense, and he actually got better. Which you can see a bit in the numbers: he was better in his mid-30s than in his early 30s.
The point being, it's not a fait accompli that Bogaerts (still only 28!) is on the edge of the abyss as a SS. At the very least, let's let it play out for a year and see where things stand.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 17:12:17 GMT -5
DRS has Xander at unplayable Incandenza. When you're -10 or below DRS that's really bad for any position and with most players, you're already talking about a position switch (ala Pablo and Hanley). This is just me looking at the cold hard numbers and saying, "yup we need a upgrade." It’s fine if your eyes see differently. I'm not going to take your word against the best defensive metric we have. I'll just leave that at that.
Xander doesn't have to be moved off of short stop, but you will be a better defensive team if you did that for a elite short stop like Story.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 22, 2021 17:53:49 GMT -5
Do you have anything other than your own personal preference saying DRS is superior to other defensive metrics? "It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat." isn't exactly compelling for me on a number of levels.
OAA has Bogaerts as pretty much a little below average as well. -4 in 2019, 0 in 2018. Range to the sides isn't great but makes the plays he's supposed to.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 22, 2021 17:56:20 GMT -5
DRS has Xander at unplayable Incandenza. When you're -10 or below DRS that's really bad for any position and with most players, you're already talking about a position switch (ala Pablo and Hanley). This is just me looking at the cold hard numbers and saying, "yup we need a upgrade." It’s fine if your eyes see differently. I'm not going to take your word against the best defensive metric we have. I'll just leave that at that. Xander doesn't have to be moved off of short stop, but you will be a better defensive team if you did that for a elite short stop like Story. I think anytime you're looking at a SS through free agency, rather they're an elite defensive SS or not, you have to prepare for the probability that whichever SS you sign will wind up moving off of SS by the time they hit 30. For the most part, it's a younger player's position. Ideally, the answer comes out of the Sox farm system at some point, although it's likely that SS is not in the system at this moment, but at some point even if you spend all that money on Story he has to really be a plus hitter like X, one that can function well as a 3b, because that's where most SS usually get moved to (Robin Yount is a quick example of a guy who moved to a different position than 3b - he wound up in CF).
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 18:04:35 GMT -5
Do you have anything other than your own personal preference saying DRS is superior to other defensive metrics? "It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat." isn't exactly compelling for me on a number of levels. OAA has Bogaerts as pretty much a little below average as well. -4 in 2019, 0 in 2018. Range to the sides isn't great but makes the plays he's supposed to. I could turn that around saying- Do you have anything saying DRS isn't the best defensive metric? It's not a personal preference thing. It's a lot better than using errors. There's other posts about it other than me highlighting this very issue and gets back to my original point that even last years pitching staff would have been better with a better left side of the infield- Look at the graph Soxstats posted on the left side of the infield. VERY telling.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 18:24:52 GMT -5
Do you have anything other than your own personal preference saying DRS is superior to other defensive metrics? "It's literally like the pitcher's ERA stat." isn't exactly compelling for me on a number of levels. OAA has Bogaerts as pretty much a little below average as well. -4 in 2019, 0 in 2018. Range to the sides isn't great but makes the plays he's supposed to. I could turn that around saying- Do you have anything saying DRS isn't the best defensive metric? It's not a personal preference thing. It's a lot better than using errors. There's other posts about it other than me highlighting this very issue and gets back to my original point that even last years pitching staff would have been better with a better left side of the infield- Look at the graph Soxstats posted on the left side of the infield. VERY telling. Why on earth would you say this? Who the heck is making an argument based on errors? Are you not reading the comments you're responding to? And no, you can't just turn the question around, because other people have cited other stats - not errors - that disagree with DRS. So you owe an explanation for why you think we should take DRS as gospel.
Anyway, the link there is interesting, though I don't know what that chart is saying. One problem is that (unless I'm missing something) it doesn't break performance out by position, and the Sox haven't been strong defensively at 2B or 3B the last two years, so it's hard to infer anything about Xander specifically. Maybe RedSoxStats can clarify...
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 18:43:24 GMT -5
I could turn that around saying- Do you have anything saying DRS isn't the best defensive metric? It's not a personal preference thing. It's a lot better than using errors. There's other posts about it other than me highlighting this very issue and gets back to my original point that even last years pitching staff would have been better with a better left side of the infield- Look at the graph Soxstats posted on the left side of the infield. VERY telling. Why on earth would you say this? Who the heck is making an argument based on errors? Are you not reading the comments you're responding to? And no, you can't just turn the question around, because other people have cited other stats - not errors - that disagree with DRS. So you owe an explanation for why you think we should take DRS as gospel. I mean, yeah I can until someone disproves the idea that DRS isn't the best defensive metric to use. Other stats be damned. Defensive runs saved, pretty much explains itself here.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 18:51:58 GMT -5
Why on earth would you say this? Who the heck is making an argument based on errors? Are you not reading the comments you're responding to? And no, you can't just turn the question around, because other people have cited other stats - not errors - that disagree with DRS. So you owe an explanation for why you think we should take DRS as gospel. I mean, yeah I can until someone disproves the idea that DRS isn't the best defensive metric to use. Other stats be damned. Defensive runs saved, pretty much explains itself here. Swell. Well, I think UZR is the be-all, end-all. I mean, "ultimate zone rating." It's the "ultimate" - can't get any better than that.
Guess that's the end of the conversation, then. Good chat. Enjoy your evening.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 18:57:41 GMT -5
Except zone (rating) is only one part of defense, put a catastrophic in front of it if you want instead. While the whole word defense is highlighted in the words defensive runs saved. Have a good night.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 22, 2021 19:09:04 GMT -5
Anyway, the link there is interesting, though I don't know what that chart is saying. One problem is that (unless I'm missing something) it doesn't break performance out by position, and the Sox haven't been strong defensively at 2B or 3B the last two years, so it's hard to infer anything about Xander specifically. Maybe RedSoxStats can clarify...
At the end of 2019 and again last summer, when tweeting about the disconnect between the Sox pitching ERA and their different projected ERAs, a few people reached out and pointed out how these ground balls were a "big problem" mainly on the left side of the infield. I just posted what I could gather from FG and Savant. Devers' error issues seemed like less of a problem in those situations to me than shortstop range. Clearly not a case study breakdown here, but between the public metrics and what Dombrowski and Cora have said publicly, no matter how happy they are with him just making routine plays, X not getting to balls is an issue.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2021 19:23:51 GMT -5
Anyway, the link there is interesting, though I don't know what that chart is saying. One problem is that (unless I'm missing something) it doesn't break performance out by position, and the Sox haven't been strong defensively at 2B or 3B the last two years, so it's hard to infer anything about Xander specifically. Maybe RedSoxStats can clarify...
At the end of 2019 and again last summer, when tweeting about the disconnect between the Sox pitching ERA and their different projected ERAs, a few people reached out and pointed out how these ground balls were a "big problem" mainly on the left side of the infield. I just posted what I could gather from FG and Savant. Devers' error issues seemed like less of a problem in those situations to me than shortstop range. Clearly not a case study breakdown here, but between the public metrics and what Dombrowski and Cora have said publicly, no matter how happy they are with him just making routine plays, X not getting to balls is an issue. It's clearly a weakness in his game! DRS, UZR, and my eyeballs all agree on that. All of those metrics also agree that he's reliable on routine plays too, though, which has value. So it's a question of degrees: just how bad is his range, and just how much does he make up for it on less rangey plays? DRS and UZR give different answers to that question. But the very fact that they can differ so much despite nominally measuring the same thing goes to show there's only so much credence we can put in those metrics.
The tables you posted are interesting. I just think they involve too many confounding variables for us to infer much about Bogaerts specifically.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 22, 2021 19:47:07 GMT -5
Last post but Soxstats obviously highlights the biggest disparity between Story and Xander the past 4 years-
It's staggering the difference.
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Post by manfred on Feb 22, 2021 20:27:17 GMT -5
Last post but Soxstats obviously highlights the biggest disparity between Story and Xander the past 4 years- It's staggering the difference. Right. And do you want to pay Correa and X? Pay Story and X? (Lindor might be off the table). Or do you let X walk to sign Correa? Fun. We can see if any more tainted Astros are available. Let X walk, sign Story, hope he can continue to be not as good as X but decent as a SS out of CO? Sign a cheap glove for SS, move X? These all seem terrible to me. If X makes the plays and has limited range, I stick it out a few more years. The Sox cannot keep trading down offensively. And there are bigger fish to fry with FA signings.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,810
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 22, 2021 21:06:54 GMT -5
I've actually thought for months that CB is likely to move Devers, probably next off-season. I don't see CB a.) paying out huge $$$ for a corner IF who's a lousy defender and is likely to get bulkier and fatter, expecially if he keeps the same disregard for conditioning; b.) waiting until after 2022 by which time Raffie will have only one year of team control left, thus diminishing his trade value; or c.) sticking with a Swiss cheese left side of the IF.
A Devers trade next off-season would let X. move to 3B and set up Casas and Dalbec to fight for 1B/DH playing time. I also think bringing in another prospect haul after 2021 fits nicely with the goal of setting the RS up for a big run starting in 2023.
I'd be Ok with a reasonable, long-term extension for X. Boras is sure to seek additional opt-outs, probably starting after year 3. I'd hope that the RS would have the stomach to let him walk and become someone else's mistake if he opts out at 33 or 34 and gets big money.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 22, 2021 21:07:59 GMT -5
Why on earth would you say this? Who the heck is making an argument based on errors? Are you not reading the comments you're responding to? And no, you can't just turn the question around, because other people have cited other stats - not errors - that disagree with DRS. So you owe an explanation for why you think we should take DRS as gospel. I mean, yeah I can until someone disproves the idea that DRS isn't the best defensive metric to use. Other stats be damned. Defensive runs saved, pretty much explains itself here. Seriously though, I wasn't making a point about Bogaerts when I asked. Do you actually have a reason for this or are you just here to start arguments and annoy people? Because it really is coming off like the latter. Per DRS, Story is a much better defender than Bogaerts. Nobody is denying this. Nobody is using errors - posters are citing other advanced defensive metrics and trying to engage in a conversation about this, and your response is basically just "nope, you're wrong, DRS." If you're going to just be a smart-ass and play move the goalposts in response to genuine questions rather than actually participate in the discourse, that's going to be an issue.
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Post by manfred on Feb 22, 2021 21:14:46 GMT -5
I've actually thought for months that CB is likely to move Devers, probably next off-season. I don't see CB a.) paying out huge $$$ for a corner IF who's a lousy defender and is likely to get bulkier and fatter, expecially if he keeps the same disregard for conditioning; b.) waiting until after 2022 by which time Raffie will have only one year of team control left, thus diminishing his trade value; or c.) sticking with a Swiss cheese left side of the IF. A Devers trade next off-season would let X. move to 3B and set up Casas and Dalbec to fight for 1B/DH playing time. I also think bringing in another prospect haul after 2021 fits nicely with the goal of setting the RS up for a big run starting in 2023. I'd be Ok with a reasonable, long-term extension for X. Boras is sure to seek additional opt-outs, probably starting after year 3. I'd hope that the RS would have the stomach to let him walk and become someone else's mistake if he opts out at 33 or 34 and gets big money. Trading Devers is insane. Guy is 25, had a mad year in 2019. How many prospects are there better than a 25 year old who already had that year? I think Devers might have suffered as much as anyone from last year’s chaos. If there is anyone who we can expect a Cora-dividend from, it’s him. If he is an average fielder at 3b, with his offensive upside I can’t imagine what reasonable package would make that worth it.
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