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2020-21 offseason national rankings
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2020 13:17:25 GMT -5
Can't say I agree. Internally, I'm sure they're realistic about their own guys, and they're not going to assume that Speier is an idiot who's just going to go with whatever they tell him. The thing that might happen is one or two guys might get inflated who they want to try to move, but that's why any ranker worth their salt is going to get outside opinions as well, which Alex does. That's one statement made by the Triple-A manager. There are a number of folks within the Red Sox organization charged with developing and evaluating their minor leaguers. The one thing that Speier definitely has on any other ranker is access to the Red Sox FO, without question. He's easily the most plugged-in writer to their FO, in my opinion, especially on the player dev side. (Of course, he talks with outside scouts as well - I don't mean to imply otherwise, to be clear.) Ray, I've said it before, but I think you're going to be disappointed by every list that comes out this offseason. Legit question since you watched several of the games, did you see anything from Downs that gives you hope offensively ? To me, he was overmatched the whole camp and the only reason for optimism is tools and past performance. His skills need a ton of work. I think "overmatched" is overselling how he was. Was he the most impressive player in camp? For sure no. Did he suck? No, I wouldn't say that either. How far do you think he should drop? For what it's worth, my understanding is that when guys are in the top 100, it's kind of dictated by BA to the writers where they need to be in order at the top of a team's list, for consistency (I recall there was a year they didn't do that and it was wonky with the RS list in particular - they had like 5 top 100 guys and they were in a different order on the team list, with a guy not on the top 100 ahead of a guy that was or something wonky). It's very possible that Speier might've been inclined to drop Downs a spot. Or maybe he wasn't. Who knows?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 27, 2020 13:38:12 GMT -5
Of the regular prospects (other than the backup catcher crop) I thought him Chatham, and Wilson looked the worst in the batters box. Wilson I give a mulligan to because he was a very late addition. Chatham was nowhere near his usual, I think this was his last hurrah. I wouldn't drop Downs all that far because the tools are there but I don't see him as a Top 50 anymore, borderline top 100 because of the tools. I seriously doubt if we are seeing him in Boston any time soon and I tend to favor proximity to the majors more significantly than most anyone.
I have him 6th behind Duran, Casas, Houck, Mata & Dalbec largely because I believe all five will be regulars in the majors before him (yes I know Casas is a stretch).
ADD: There's more his being passed than his dropping in my opinion.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2020 13:46:15 GMT -5
I think your point about the Top 100 is probably right, but I thought he was rated too highly on some lists last year. 55 hit, 55 power, 45-50 run, 50-55 field at 2B is a really good player, but after thinking it through I was comfortable with Casas ahead of him unless we saw otherwise in camp. That's not to say I thought he was bad - I get having him in the top 100, but it just felt that he was a bit high. In other words, I agree with your point, but probably because I already thought that.
I think part of the problem is we have no idea how this "season" affected players. Jeter Downs hasn't actually played a game this year. For all the good that guys like Duran did, they also haven't proven it in actual games either. I just don't think you can make sweeping changes in how you project a player based on the ATS. Now, I know we moved Duran up from 8 to 4, but for me those guys were already tightly packed, so it wasn't like we changed his projection a whole lot.
In other words, after you explained, I think the problem is you're probably moving guys up way more across the board than I would based on the realities of the 2020 season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 27, 2020 13:57:55 GMT -5
Fair enough. I probably rank the average quality of the pitchers faced at ATS more than most so that would affect it to some extent. Particularly for the batters who see the same set of pitchers constantly. On the other hand, I also realize the pitchers are working on their games and are not generally pitching to their strengths but that should also favor the batters. It's easier to explain away good hitting than bad.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 27, 2020 14:18:39 GMT -5
By the way, relative to development, I think all the attendees grew more than they would have in an ordinary year. I actually like the concept and wouldn't mind seeing a variation of it at some level. More or less a year of learning rather than playing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2020 15:18:42 GMT -5
By the way, relative to development, I think all the attendees grew more than they would have in an ordinary year. I actually like the concept and wouldn't mind seeing a variation of it at some level. More or less a year of learning rather than playing. I think you're describing an expanded version of extended spring training. But the question is whether that is something older players could benefit from as well. The most creative minds will be able to incorporate lessons from this year into player development going forward successfully.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 27, 2020 19:04:22 GMT -5
Yes basically but at a higher level prospectwise. It seems as if the entire evaluation industry is making a major blunder to assume that the camps were of less value or that the prospects grew less because of the ATS. I'm guessing all organizations had a bit of a learning curve but I find it difficult to believe that most if not all experienced prospect growth like the Red Sox did at Pawtucket. Just because the BA's of the world didn't get to see it doesn't mean it didn't happen and seems like a rather gutless approach to me. SP got to see it on TV which is far more than most teams but still refuses to accept it.
If they don't find a way to figure this out, they are likely to have their growth rates mirror print news growth rates. I mean seriously, why bother with a BA subscription ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 27, 2020 20:44:57 GMT -5
I'll predict that the next few years will see major changes in how teams do business.
With all the data available, ML scouting will be reduced significantly.
With the minors being taken over by MLB and data being proprietary information, MLB Pipeline will become the goto source for prospect watching. Trades involving prospects will be heavily data influenced.
Teams will likely expand their amateur scouting.
Baseball and particularly prospect watching as we knew it is likely to become a fond memory.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2020 11:03:06 GMT -5
1) No other club broadcasted their ATS workouts like the Red Sox did.
2) Scouts were not allowed in.
We're calling Instructs a black box, well the ATS is even moreso for most teams.
3) We have no idea how to translate results from the ATS.
Nobody is "ignoring" the ATS. It's that, imo, we don't know nearly as much as you seem to think we know based on the ATS, and we don't know how to translate that yet.
And I think your predictions are either a bit extreme or have already happened, which is kind of an interesting dichotomy. Take teams cutting back pro scouting - they're already doing/have done so in some cases. Trackman data in every park started that trend already, and trades involving prospects are already heavily data influenced. Amateur scouting is already heading in that direction as well as far as data goes - look at Nick Bitsko.
I don't get what all that has to do with different sites/sources and how following prospects would change though. Wouldn't more data be a good thing?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 28, 2020 13:48:35 GMT -5
Yes, more data is a good thing and there's certainly trackman at most minor league parks now. Where do we see it ? What was the break on Ward's sinker last year ?
What I am saying is that what we experienced this past season is likely to be a major part of the new norm. That is the problem. If you don't know how to interpret it this year, what's likely to change next year ?
If it's all a giant black box and we got to see more, what exactly is Baseball America's future roll ? What's the value of their top 100 ? Who's hot and who's not ?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2020 14:52:26 GMT -5
It's not publicly available, but teams and scouts have it. And it's at every park, trust me. We're at the point that most high-level college programs have it.
I don't think that everything from now on is going to go into a black box. Minor league baseball is coming back, it's not dead. It's not like they're going to stop keeping statistics or stop broadcasting games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 28, 2020 19:33:11 GMT -5
It's not publicly available, but teams and scouts have it. And it's at every park, trust me. We're at the point that most high-level college programs have it. I don't think that everything from now on is going to go into a black box. Minor league baseball is coming back, it's not dead. It's not like they're going to stop keeping statistics or stop broadcasting games. True but everyone else is going to be working with substandard information. Like the article I posted about Ward in the Fall Instrux thread. He mentions tunneling (third time I've seen it mentioned in the last 2 months). You aren't going to see that from the stands or on a TV monitor. But you can see the release points for each pitch in the data (I noticed that with Tapia).
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 29, 2020 9:10:21 GMT -5
Jeter Downs feels like one of those prospects that doesn't wow you when you see tiny samples since all his tools are good not great. Then you look up at the end of the season and he puts up good numbers and justifies his ranking. Feels like the perception of him is down a bit here because he didn't have 100+ games in our system to showcase his quality.
I anticipate him still being ranked highly nationally due to the lack of info out there this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 29, 2020 9:39:57 GMT -5
That sounds right.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 3, 2020 10:43:41 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2020 8:42:28 GMT -5
Prospects Live Red Sox rankings, grades, videos. Nice site. tweet: Trevor Hooth @hoothtrevor · 1h Team list 2/30. Some interesting names here, and Nick Yorke won't be outside the top 5 for long. You heard it here first. Fantastic work from @prospectjesus @jdrake349 @salnotes and @tylerjennings24 for killing this one! Check it out! www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/11/4/boston-red-sox-2021-prospect-rankingsInterestingly, they rank one of our undrafted free agents. NOTE: If you are using a desktop, remember to click desktop view. Note also. Their rankings will be fluid, they will change with info, not on a fixed schedule. They also must like the Sox system and it will end up ranked high, they have us with 2 FV55s Casas & Downs and 5 FV50's Houck, Dalbec, Groome, Mata & Song.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 5, 2020 9:40:35 GMT -5
Prospects Live Red Sox rankings, grades, videos. Nice site. tweet: Trevor Hooth @hoothtrevor · 1h Team list 2/30. Some interesting names here, and Nick Yorke won't be outside the top 5 for long. You heard it here first. Fantastic work from @prospectjesus @jdrake349 @salnotes and @tylerjennings24 for killing this one! Check it out! www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/11/4/boston-red-sox-2021-prospect-rankingsInterestingly, they rank one of our undrafted free agents. NOTE: If you are using a desktop, remember to click desktop view. Note also. Their rankings will be fluid, they will change with info, not on a fixed schedule. They also must like the Sox system and it will end up ranked high, they have us with 2 FV55s Casas & Downs and 5 FV50's Houck, Dalbec, Groome, Mata & Song. I hope I was extremely wrong about Yorke, but I want to see him play against non Sox pitchers before we start blasting him up the rankings
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2020 10:11:13 GMT -5
They have him ranked 10th, not all that much different than SP.
According to Ralph Lifshitz @prospectjesus they watched all the ATS games broadcast. ·
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2020 10:37:27 GMT -5
BA's website says their Sox list coming tomorrow (which, in theory, we already know).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 5, 2020 16:01:29 GMT -5
Prospects Live Red Sox rankings, grades, videos. Nice site. tweet: Trevor Hooth @hoothtrevor · 1h Team list 2/30. Some interesting names here, and Nick Yorke won't be outside the top 5 for long. You heard it here first. Fantastic work from @prospectjesus @jdrake349 @salnotes and @tylerjennings24 for killing this one! Check it out! www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/11/4/boston-red-sox-2021-prospect-rankingsInterestingly, they rank one of our undrafted free agents. NOTE: If you are using a desktop, remember to click desktop view. Note also. Their rankings will be fluid, they will change with info, not on a fixed schedule. They also must like the Sox system and it will end up ranked high, they have us with 2 FV55s Casas & Downs and 5 FV50's Houck, Dalbec, Groome, Mata & Song. Super awesome formatting. Love that you can sort by tool grade (although they need to change it to where when you sort by "rank" it doesn't go 1, 10, 11, and so on) Houck over Groome and especially Mata seems bold.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2020 18:39:06 GMT -5
BA's website says their Sox list coming tomorrow (which, in theory, we already know). Top 10 came in the mail today.
1. Casas 2. Downs ("one of the team's top performers in Pawtucket")
3. Dalbec 4. Mata 5. Duran 6. Groome 7. Jiminez 8. Houck 9. Yorke 10. Ward
Vs. here, Dalbec is 3 higher, Yorke 4 higher, and Song at least 6 spots lower. Also swaps at 6/7 and Houck / Ward (which I'm sure will follow here).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2020 20:03:45 GMT -5
Yeah that list was posted on the app and posted above.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2020 23:28:23 GMT -5
Yeah that list was posted on the app and posted above. It's not above -- it's on the previous page! Which is why I didn't see it when I checked. And I now remember reading it--nine days ago.
But obviously I forgot about it ... hey, at least I included the Downs quote which contradicts the general impression!
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Post by Addam603 on Nov 6, 2020 9:51:22 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,757
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Post by mobaz on Nov 6, 2020 10:12:17 GMT -5
Wow, given his position that would be kind of shocking. I love the implied optimism on his bat though.
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