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2020-21 offseason national rankings
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2021 11:13:55 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I think the MLB.com position lists are kind of silly. It equates being, say, a top 10 LHP with a top 10 RHP, which isn't even close to the same thing. Same with a top 10 SS and a top 10 1B. Or pick whatever pair of positions you want. And that they only do 10 OF is kind of silly.
They do great work, but I find the top 10 lists kind of meaningless. Like, Downs is on the SS list, but should really be on the 2B list well ahead of Yorke, but in the end they're both going to be top 10 at their positions.
I think it'd be way more meaningful to do top 20 MIF, top 20 CIF, top 20 OF, top 20 (30?) P.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 26, 2021 11:02:11 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 26, 2021 11:09:11 GMT -5
So according to the lists that gives the sox a top 10 prospect at every infield position according to MLB.com. I know as Chris said yesterday yes its a bit silly to do these top 10s by position rather than by MI, CI, OF etc but hey I'll take it. Its better than the alternative of having 0.
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Post by manfred on Jan 26, 2021 13:35:49 GMT -5
Is there any sense in the organization that he’ll be a third baseman in the future?
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Post by manfred on Jan 26, 2021 14:21:14 GMT -5
I had missed this. It is fascinating, since he has not played and it seemed like a slightly controversial pick. I hope this means he’s been evaluated up a tick?
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Post by texs31 on Jan 27, 2021 9:28:58 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jan 27, 2021 9:42:00 GMT -5
I had missed this. It is fascinating, since he has not played and it seemed like a slightly controversial pick. I hope this means he’s been evaluated up a tick? My VERY uninformed thoughts on this: 1. A list of guys we already have resigned ourselves to not being able to play a position higher on the defensive spectrum than 2B is probably significantly smaller than a lot of other positions. And as a 45 - suggesting he's graded as being less than a 1st division regular (or something close to that) at said position is . . . fine (clearly better than NOT being on it but . . .)? 2. With 0 inner knowledge, have always felt that the last person on a Top X list (Team, position, etc) is a bit of a wildcard. Like, let's put someone on there that we'd love to be ahead of the curve on. Like maybe they concentrate on the X-1 list (Top 9 in a top 10) and then take all of those outside that list and pick one to write up. Nobody is really going to remember them as a "miss".
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Post by texs31 on Jan 28, 2021 8:41:21 GMT -5
Law's top 100
Downs - 56 Casas - 87 Duran - 93
A guess I was a little surprised that, in the Duran write-up, Law suggested he was a plus defender in CF with a chance to be a 70.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 28, 2021 14:34:01 GMT -5
A guess I was a little surprised that, in the Duran write-up, Law suggested he was a plus defender in CF with a chance to be a 70. Yeah that stood out to me as not being close to what I've seen. Even in the ATS wrap-up call we all keep referring to, it was suggested that he's a work in progress out there. But hey, if that's what you think he is on defense then yeah he's probably a top 100 guy.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 28, 2021 14:48:56 GMT -5
A guess I was a little surprised that, in the Duran write-up, Law suggested he was a plus defender in CF with a chance to be a 70. Yeah that stood out to me as not being close to what I've seen. Even in the ATS wrap-up call we all keep referring to, it was suggested that he's a work in progress out there. But hey, if that's what you think he is on defense then yeah he's probably a top 100 guy. I'll trust the eval at the ATS this past season. Defense is the issue. It's also what Bradley brought to the table and what will be difficult to replace if he's gone for good. We're only now getting the stats that will allow that value to actually be measured. The obvious way is through win probability added. When a player makes a great catch to cut off a possible score, it happens during a specific base/out condition. Knowing how that condition would have changed had the catch not been made means having data about what that failure means for win probability. That stuff is only now being accumulated: where the ball landed, where the other fielders were, what the likelihood was of having had the ball cutoff or not, and what replicates of that sort have, in the past, resulted in for that probability. That "past" is what statcast data is accumulating as seasons progress. It will be available someday, but I don't think it is at this point. What I do know is that Bradley has put an end to any number of rallies, changing win probability in ways we can only imagine. He was exceptionally valuable in my opinion.
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Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2021 15:11:27 GMT -5
Yeah that stood out to me as not being close to what I've seen. Even in the ATS wrap-up call we all keep referring to, it was suggested that he's a work in progress out there. But hey, if that's what you think he is on defense then yeah he's probably a top 100 guy. I'll trust the eval at the ATS this past season. Defense is the issue. It's also what Bradley brought to the table and what will be difficult to replace if he's gone for good. We're only now getting the stats that will allow that value to actually be measured. The obvious was is through win probability added. When a player makes a great catch to cut off a possible score, it happens during a specific base/out condition. Knowing how that condition would have changed had the catch not been made means having data about what that failure means for win probability. That stuff is only now being accumulated: where the ball landed, where the other fielders were, what the likelihood was of having had the ball cutoff or not, and what replicates of that sort have, in the past, resulted in for that probability. That "past" is what statcast data is accumulating as seasons progress. It will be available someday, but I don't think it is at this point. What I do know is that Bradley has put an end to any number of rallies, changing win probability in ways we can only imagine. He was exceptionally valuable in my opinion. I don’t think we’ll ever be able to measure defense statistically in the way we can offensively, partly because the idea of chances is so different (“plays” vs. “at-bats”, the latter of which so much more closely resemble one another and can be controlled for difference). The problem with the stat you are citing is it requires situations out of one’s control. That is, JBJ is an awesome fielder, regardless of how many times he has to dive to save a run (I mean say he covers ridiculous ground only to have the ss grab it - how do we “count” that?). This stat can be of value measuring a certain contingent excellence, but it doesn’t say something inherent. That is, it tells a tale about a season, but it doesn’t establish with certitude a bigger picture. I have similar beef with dWAR where fluctuations strike me as suspicious (my on-going rage at Keirmaier vs. JBJ).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 28, 2021 18:51:09 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline is releasing their Top 100 tonight and there are 4 Red Sox on the list. I'm going to go ahead and guess it's Casas, Downs, Dalbec, and Duran.
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Post by mikeyg413 on Jan 28, 2021 20:25:42 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline is releasing their Top 100 tonight and there are 4 Red Sox on the list. I'm going to go ahead and guess it's Casas, Downs, Dalbec, and Duran. Just the first three but Casas and Downs inside the top 50 is awesome. Casas rose up like 20+ spots.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 28, 2021 20:37:35 GMT -5
Dalbec 93 Downs 49 Casas 44 Still waiting on the top 10 but assuming sox don't have anyone in that.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 28, 2021 20:47:25 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline is releasing their Top 100 tonight and there are 4 Red Sox on the list. I'm going to go ahead and guess it's Casas, Downs, Dalbec, and Duran. Just the first three but Casas and Downs inside the top 50 is awesome. Casas rose up like 20+ spots. I also saw 4. And yet it appears only 3???
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 28, 2021 20:58:41 GMT -5
This might be a dumb question but what are the exact qualifications for being a prospect? It must be games played? I see Michael Kopech at 39 on mlb pipeline list but technically he has over a year of service time due to being on the IL.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 28, 2021 21:12:51 GMT -5
Stupid comment but dies it ever occur to you guys that our “rebuild” “bridge” may move a lot quicker than usual as arguably our top 3 prospects (if you go by Keith Laws list) fill perfectly our three biggest holes in the field (Casas, Downs, Duran).
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 28, 2021 21:20:11 GMT -5
This might be a dumb question but what are the exact qualifications for being a prospect? It must be games played? I see Michael Kopech at 39 on mlb pipeline list but technically he has over a year of service time due to being on the IL. He would be ineligible for ROY due to service time, but most of the big publications only graduate players after hitting the games played milestones.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 28, 2021 21:24:39 GMT -5
This might be a dumb question but what are the exact qualifications for being a prospect? It must be games played? I see Michael Kopech at 39 on mlb pipeline list but technically he has over a year of service time due to being on the IL. He would be ineligible for ROY due to service time, but most of the big publications only graduate players after hitting the games played milestones. Ahh okay that makes sense. Thank you very much.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 28, 2021 22:40:41 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline is releasing their Top 100 tonight and there are 4 Red Sox on the list. I'm going to go ahead and guess it's Casas, Downs, Dalbec, and Duran. Just the first three but Casas and Downs inside the top 50 is awesome. Casas rose up like 20+ spots. I also saw 4. And yet it appears only 3??? MLB Pipeline had an extremely confusing tweet earlier tonight that listed the number of players teams had on positional top 10s, not the top 100. Casas, Yorke, Downs, Dalbec. And I only know what happened to you here because they got me with it at first too.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 3, 2021 12:36:42 GMT -5
BA released their Top 30 prospect lists. The Red Sox list: 1. Triston Casas 2. Jeter Downs 3. Bobby Dalbec 4. Bryan Mata 5. Jarren Duran 6. Jay Groome 7. Gilberto Jimenez 8. Tanner Houck 9. Nick Yorke 10. Thad Ward 11. Connor Seabold 12. Noah Song 13. Chris Murphy 14. Matthew Lugo 15. Connor Wong 16. Blaze Jordan 17. Garrett Whitlock 18. Brainer Bonaci 19. Brayan Bello 20. Jeisson Rosario 21. Jonathan Arauz 22. Aldo Ramirez 23. Chih-Jung Liu 24. Hudson Potts 25. Jacob Wallace 26. Ceddanne Rafaela 27. Andrew Politi 28. Eduard Bazardo 29. Nick Decker 30. Jeremy Wu-Yelland www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1003/boston-red-sox/organizational/?year=2021&type=P
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Post by incandenza on Feb 3, 2021 12:45:31 GMT -5
Is it just me or have the evaluations of Nick Yorke drifted up a bit since he was regarded as the big head-scratcher of the draft?
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Post by texs31 on Feb 10, 2021 10:00:51 GMT -5
Law (The Athletic) and BA both have their Org Rankings out today and the Sox ranked as #20 in both.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Feb 10, 2021 10:31:07 GMT -5
Law (The Athletic) and BA both have their Org Rankings out today and the Sox ranked as #20 in both. Law's Writeup: The popular refrain that Boston’s system is bad isn’t really fair or accurate; they have a lot of guys who project to major-league value, and they have a lot of guys with some ceiling who need to get out and play, whether it’s coming back from injury (Jason Groome) or trying to show a real change in skill (Chris Murphy, Matthew Lugo) or just needing to get off the ship and onto a field (Noah Song). Drafting low in the first round for several years, occasionally going without a first-round pick at all, and then going way off the radar in the 2020 draft did not help matters, however.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 10, 2021 10:55:30 GMT -5
Law (The Athletic) and BA both have their Org Rankings out today and the Sox ranked as #20 in both. Law's Writeup: The popular refrain that Boston’s system is bad isn’t really fair or accurate; they have a lot of guys who project to major-league value, and they have a lot of guys with some ceiling who need to get out and play, whether it’s coming back from injury (Jason Groome) or trying to show a real change in skill (Chris Murphy, Matthew Lugo) or just needing to get off the ship and onto a field (Noah Song). Drafting low in the first round for several years, occasionally going without a first-round pick at all, and then going way off the radar in the 2020 draft did not help matters, however. "Off the radar"...as in really crappy draft?
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