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2020-21 offseason national rankings
manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 11:04:23 GMT -5
Law (The Athletic) and BA both have their Org Rankings out today and the Sox ranked as #20 in both. Law's Writeup: The popular refrain that Boston’s system is bad isn’t really fair or accurate; they have a lot of guys who project to major-league value, and they have a lot of guys with some ceiling who need to get out and play, whether it’s coming back from injury (Jason Groome) or trying to show a real change in skill (Chris Murphy, Matthew Lugo) or just needing to get off the ship and onto a field (Noah Song). Drafting low in the first round for several years, occasionally going without a first-round pick at all, and then going way off the radar in the 2020 draft did not help matters, however. This seems like kind of faint praise. “A lot of guys who project to major-league value” seems like the basic definition of a minor league system. So... we have a system!! I am not complaining about the system, btw — more the writing.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 10, 2021 11:13:51 GMT -5
Law's Writeup: The popular refrain that Boston’s system is bad isn’t really fair or accurate; they have a lot of guys who project to major-league value, and they have a lot of guys with some ceiling who need to get out and play, whether it’s coming back from injury (Jason Groome) or trying to show a real change in skill (Chris Murphy, Matthew Lugo) or just needing to get off the ship and onto a field (Noah Song). Drafting low in the first round for several years, occasionally going without a first-round pick at all, and then going way off the radar in the 2020 draft did not help matters, however. "Off the radar"...as in really crappy draft? Sounds to me that he is referring to Nick Yorke - who the Red Sox took at 17, but who Keith Law didn't have in his top 100.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 10, 2021 11:39:22 GMT -5
At the very least we owe kudos to Bloom and his FO. In basically one weird year these Sox Farm rankings went from the bottom of the bottom third to the bottom of the middle third. That is progress. Would like the rankers comments on acquisitions like Downs and Seabold. IMO the Sox also get kudos for filling up the system with depth like Mazza, Munoz, Valdez, Weber.
IMO with any luck at all this 2021 team will be sneaky good at pitching and hitting, and built to compete; and is well on the way to a future of sustainable contention. It feels good to get excited about Sox baseball again. I am grateful.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 11:45:32 GMT -5
At the very least we owe kudos to Bloom and his FO. In basically one weird year these Sox Farm rankings went from the bottom of the bottom third to the bottom of the middle third. That is progress. Would like the rankers comments on acquisitions like Downs and Seabold. IMO the Sox also get kudos for filling up the system with depth like Mazza, Munoz, Valdez, Weber. IMO with any luck at all this 2021 team will be sneaky good at pitching and hitting, and built to compete; and is well on the way to a future of sustainable contention. It feels good to get excited about Sox baseball again. I am grateful. Easssyyy.... first off, sucking usually helps make your system better. I have a hard time lowering my kudos standards to acquiring the likes of Mazza and Weber. Seabold will be a huge question. If he can start, Bloom made a great, great trade. If not, if Seabold and Pivetta bust, it was still a good try... I won’t knock him for the thinking... but it’s hard to go so far as congratulating him. The major players but Downs are still guys who were here before. Downs — well, he better be REALLY good for what he cost. Like... All Star good. Especially since he seems to have been a guy the Sox selected from a deep system.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 10, 2021 11:52:50 GMT -5
God forbid that a Sox fan would dare to see the upside, much less good of any moves by this FO. OK. I will try to see it your way. Fire Bloom and the FO for not doing it the right way.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 12:02:30 GMT -5
God forbid that a Sox fan would dare to see the upside, much less good of any moves by this FO. OK. I will try to see it your way. Fire Bloom and the FO for not doing it the right way. Not at all my point. I’m even cool with saying the development of a guy like Casas or of Duran gives us real reason to hope. I think it does. They feel like the first guys since the last wave who could be legit above average guys. But they were already here. It is just the idea that *Bloom* has somehow turned stuff around... I mean, we might easily be looking at Yorke in a year or two and asking “what were they thinking?” I reserve judgment, but there was certainly a lot of head scratching. Let’s at least wait to see how this draft goes before we decide he is a system builder.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 10, 2021 12:13:50 GMT -5
Law did not like the Yorke pick. That has little to do with Yorke and his potential. He was a West Coast high-school player. That's about as far from the spotlight as you can get. Keep in mind that any rankings, his or anyone else's, have been greatly affected by the pandemic. Nailing this stuff up to the wall, as some sort of guide to the future, is a serious miscalculation in my opinion.
My focus is on the development of the pitching side. The team now has a nice group of arms that look to be advancing through the system. That's a world away from two years ago.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2021 12:14:02 GMT -5
God forbid that a Sox fan would dare to see the upside, much less good of any moves by this FO. OK. I will try to see it your way. Fire Bloom and the FO for not doing it the right way. There's got to be a realistic medium, though, no? When a team stinks and divests themselves of assets, they should be able to bring in young talent into the farm system and increase the quantity, if not quality of the farm system. If the Sox don't wind up bringing back JBJ, as it appears, it is fair to question why Bloom didn't bring in young talent for him. On the flip side, teams right in the thick of pennant races aren't trading their closers for young talent. I would say I'd be pretty excited about the possibility that the Sox fleeced Philly really bad in the Workman deal, but that still does remain to be seen. I know Bloom has wanted Pivetta really bad for a long time so let's see if he's right, and even if he isn't Seabold is somebody who could have a lot of value for the Red Sox. Worst case scenario, like Manfred said, even if it doesn't work out, the thinking was really, really good on that one. I understand the happiness of getting quality depth, but when you're gushing over Mazza, Weber, Munoz, etc, it's about the same as gushing about Marcos Hernandez, who is long gone and didn't wind up amounting to much. These guys are fringy guys, the type of guys that ALL teams have in quantity, so unless one of these guys becomes a diamond in the rough, I don't really see genius here that other clubs aren't doing the same with. Bloom is here for the long haul and should be. This isn't going to be a job that's going to be instant gratification. Bloom inherited a team on the way down with a lousy farm system so I do share in your hope that over time the system will make leaps and bounds. I see some decent depth, improved by the Red Sox current lot in life, but very little in the way of blue chip talent beyond Casas, although Downs could be good and there could be developmental leaps from Jimenez, Mata, Groome, maybe Song joins the system or maybe it's somebody we never even anticipated - none of that has happened yet, and you can't count on it, but you can always hope. The good news is that there's more guys you can legitimately dream on than there was before, but of course we'll all be waiting on that #4 pick this June!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 10, 2021 12:15:40 GMT -5
What are you talking about? No one is gushing over those people. Get the straw man out of here.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 10, 2021 12:32:17 GMT -5
God forbid that a Sox fan would dare to see the upside, much less good of any moves by this FO. OK. I will try to see it your way. Fire Bloom and the FO for not doing it the right way. Not at all my point. I’m even cool with saying the development of a guy like Casas or of Duran gives us real reason to hope. I think it does. They feel like the first guys since the last wave who could be legit above average guys. But they were already here. It is just the idea that *Bloom* has somehow turned stuff around... I mean, we might easily be looking at Yorke in a year or two and asking “what were they thinking?” I reserve judgment, but there was certainly a lot of head scratching. Let’s at least wait to see how this draft goes before we decide he is a system builder. IMHO that seems to be exactly your point. Somewhere between my rose colored optimism and your extreme skepticism is most likely the reality. But Bloom’s fingerprints are all over this team and this farm system. Plawecki, Arroyo, Hernandez, Renfroe, Verdugo, Richards, Perez, Pivetta, Ottavino, Hiro, Andries, Whitlock with more to come (half the 25-26) all have uncharted upside at Fenway. Of course they could all flop and of course other choices might do better, but I, personally, am very happy with these players and would be surprised if most don’t succeed. And can we stop re-litigating the Mookie trade? We got Verdugo, Downs, Wong and $45M to reset the stupid cap. Could have been much worse. A quick scan of 2021 AAA and AA depth, at any level in fact, shows rosters which are also packed with Bloom FO players (including Song and York) from Arauz, Gettys and Valdez to the many high upside players from several sources. This is already Bloom’s team. It has improved at every level in a short time and, based on this, it is likely to get better, not worse, mistakes and all. Sorry. Can’t help myself. I fully understand risks and downsides, but when I see progress in any venture or any person, I get excited.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 12:49:28 GMT -5
Not at all my point. I’m even cool with saying the development of a guy like Casas or of Duran gives us real reason to hope. I think it does. They feel like the first guys since the last wave who could be legit above average guys. But they were already here. It is just the idea that *Bloom* has somehow turned stuff around... I mean, we might easily be looking at Yorke in a year or two and asking “what were they thinking?” I reserve judgment, but there was certainly a lot of head scratching. Let’s at least wait to see how this draft goes before we decide he is a system builder. IMHO that seems to be exactly your point. Somewhere between my rose colored optimism and your extreme skepticism is most likely the reality. But Bloom’s fingerprints are all over this team and this farm system. Plawecki, Arroyo, Hernandez, Renfroe, Verdugo, Richards, Perez, Pivetta, Hiro, Whitlock with more to come all have uncharted upside at Fenway. Of course they could all flop and of course other choices might do better, but I, personally, am very happy with these players and would be surprised if most don’t succeed. And can we stop re-litigating the Mookie trade? We got Verdugo, Downs, Wong and $45M to reset the stupid cap. Could have been much worse. A quick scan of 2021 AAA and AA depth, at any level in fact, shows rosters which are also packed with Bloom FO players (including Song and York) from Arauz, Gettys and Valdez to the many high upside players from several sources. This is already Bloom’s team. It has improved at every level in a short time and, based on this, it is likely to get better, not worse, mistakes and all. Sorry. Can’t help myself. I fully understand risks and downsides, but when I see progress in any venture or any person, I get excited. I guess I feel like when you say someone like Plawecki has “uncharted upside” in Fenway.... or Perez or a bunch of guys you name... it just seems kind of crazy. Plawecki was a nice replacement for Leon, and he had a good 82-at-bat stretch last year. But a lot of these guys are veterans who are pretty much what they are. If we are expecting some Pixie dust to make Martin Perez a front-end starter, well, I want some of that dust. “Uncharted”? Do we see him as an MVP? Most of these guys (Arauz, Arroyo, Whitlock etc) are flyers that many teams take. If any human was GM these last couple of years, wouldn’t they have a long list of invitees, minor signings etc? I see similar moves everyday across the league in transactions. I’m not saying some won’t work. I’m not saying some aren’t good moves. Perez was good last year, and I under-estimated him. Mea culpa. But there is not really a masterstroke on your list. Nothing there takes a genius. As for relitigating... that was not what I was doing. The trade is a given. It is still very fair to say that we *know* Downs was a choice. So he needs to have chosen correctly. If, for example, Graterol turns out well and Downs bombs, we could be justified in saying that was a bad choice. So from my view the two most substantial decisions Bloom has made to date in putting his imprint on the rebuild are Yorke and Downs, and those two need to be something for me to say Bloom has helped right things. Pivetta and Seabold are the next two decisions, though they had a far lower cost. If they don’t work out, I still give Bloom credit for trying.
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Post by foreverred9 on Feb 10, 2021 12:54:24 GMT -5
God forbid that a Sox fan would dare to see the upside, much less good of any moves by this FO. OK. I will try to see it your way. Fire Bloom and the FO for not doing it the right way. Not at all my point. I’m even cool with saying the development of a guy like Casas or of Duran gives us real reason to hope. I think it does. They feel like the first guys since the last wave who could be legit above average guys. But they were already here. It is just the idea that *Bloom* has somehow turned stuff around... I mean, we might easily be looking at Yorke in a year or two and asking “what were they thinking?” I reserve judgment, but there was certainly a lot of head scratching. Let’s at least wait to see how this draft goes before we decide he is a system builder. With all due respect, the initial post you took offence to only said nothing about turning it around, it was recognition of the progress made. That's not IMO a controversial statement - they've moved up in the rankings, and when that occurs praise is given. Yes they didn't draft Casas or Duran, and yes they traded away talent off the big league club to get many of the prospects, but it's clear they made an investment in improving the system and the publications are noticing the system getting better. Whether or not you think in totality when evaluating Bloom that the improvement of the farm system is enough to offset the decline in the big league talent, that's a different question for a different thread. But at least in terms of a national ranking thread, it feels appropriate to give the FO kudos.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 13:07:36 GMT -5
Not at all my point. I’m even cool with saying the development of a guy like Casas or of Duran gives us real reason to hope. I think it does. They feel like the first guys since the last wave who could be legit above average guys. But they were already here. It is just the idea that *Bloom* has somehow turned stuff around... I mean, we might easily be looking at Yorke in a year or two and asking “what were they thinking?” I reserve judgment, but there was certainly a lot of head scratching. Let’s at least wait to see how this draft goes before we decide he is a system builder. With all due respect, the initial post you took offence to only said nothing about turning it around, it was recognition of the progress made. That's not IMO a controversial statement - they've moved up in the rankings, and when that occurs praise is given. Yes they didn't draft Casas or Duran, and yes they traded away talent off the big league club to get many of the prospects, but it's clear they made an investment in improving the system and the publications are noticing the system getting better. Whether or not you think in totality when evaluating Bloom that the improvement of the farm system is enough to offset the decline in the big league talent, that's a different question for a different thread. But at least in terms of a national ranking thread, it feels appropriate to give the FO kudos. Well, ok, I withdraw that wording. But I was primarily responding to the idea of kudos for guys like Weber and Mazza — which was most definitely part of that post. The upward motion of the system, which is hardly “with a bullet” as we say of the charts, has not been driven by the deep-depth moves. More to point, I *am* excited about some guys in a way I haven’t been for a few years (since Devers, maybe?). But every one of them was here. So I will say kudos to the last few FOs who brought in Duran, Casas, Mata, Houck, a couple others. Not so much Hudson Potts.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 10, 2021 13:11:48 GMT -5
God forbid that a Sox fan would dare to see the upside, much less good of any moves by this FO. OK. I will try to see it your way. Fire Bloom and the FO for not doing it the right way. When a team stinks and divests themselves of assets, they should be able to bring in young talent into the farm system and increase the quantity, if not quality of the farm system. If the Sox don't wind up bringing back JBJ, as it appears, it is fair to question why Bloom didn't bring in young talent for him.People bring this up frequently, but what were they ever going to get for him? Maybe slightly more than they got for Pillar? And do you even remember what the return for Pillar was? (He's now our #23 prospect in a mediocre system.) It's not like this was some huge blunder on Bloom's part, especially in light of other considerations (loyalty to home-grown players, or the appearance of same; BLM- and team chemistry-related stuff; better relationship for free agent negotiations).
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 10, 2021 13:31:27 GMT -5
Manfred, I wonder if you can agree that: 1. The farm system has improved since 2019 2. The last place (and 4th worst) 2020 Red Sox are likely to improve in 2021. 3. With any luck they could even compete for a wild card. 4. Until 2020 the 2020 rotation was to be led off by Sale and ERod. 5. Martin Perez was a very good #4 or 5 at Fenway in 2020 6. Kevin Plawecki thrived as a backup catcher at Fenway in 2020 7. Christian Arroyo’s pedigree showed up in late 2020 at Fenway. 8. Verdugo was a star at Fenway 9. The hitting patterns of both Renfroe and Hernandez look like a good fit for Fenway. Both have defensive weapons for Fenway. 10. Whitlock might be a Rule 5 gem 11. I could go on in the same way about the risk/rewards of Richards, Ottavino, Hiro, Pivetta, etc.
That’s all I am saying. Some really good moves. No strokes of genius. A very strong, increasingly empowered FO. A steady stream of incremental improvements from DSL to Fenway following decline; accomplished largely during a deadly pandemic with no minor leagues season and under a ridiculous cap. Not bad for a beginner.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 14:21:20 GMT -5
Manfred, I wonder if you can agree that: 1. The farm system has improved since 2019 2. The last place (and 4th worst) 2020 Red Sox are likely to improve in 2021. 3. With any luck they could even compete for a wild card. 4. Until 2020 the 2020 rotation was to be led off by Sale and ERod. 5. Martin Perez was a very good #4 or 5 at Fenway in 2020 6. Kevin Plawecki thrived as a backup catcher at Fenway in 2020 7. Christian Arroyo’s pedigree showed up in late 2020 at Fenway. 8. Verdugo was a star at Fenway 9. The hitting patterns of both Renfroe and Hernandez look like a good fit for Fenway. Both have defensive weapons for Fenway. 10. Whitlock might be a Rule 5 gem 11. I could go on in the same way about the risk/rewards of Richards, Ottavino, Hiro, Pivetta, etc. That’s all I am saying. Some really good moves. No strokes of genius. A very strong, increasingly empowered FO. A steady stream of incremental improvements from DSL to Fenway following decline; accomplished largely during a deadly pandemic with no minor leagues season and under a ridiculous cap. Not bad for a beginner. 1) it’s complicated. Looking at our top-20, I’d say.... sure! Seabold and Downs are going to get every chance to be legit contributors. Other than that, I view a lot of guys as being improvements for folks like us who follow the minors, but I am not sure people who only follow the big club will ever hear the name Potts, for example. So in so far as the minor league teams might be better, yes. The major league team? Could be. 2) They will finish ahead of the Orioles, so, chapeau. An unequivocal yes! 3) there are two WCs. They are a major league team not in Baltimore or Pittsburgh. So... yes. They could compete for a WC. 4-7) all three guys might well be fine. You said “uncharted upside.” Big difference. Perez is a 4-5. Plawecki a backup catcher (though last year I was in favor of trading Cvaz high and just starting KP, so I like him). But that is... charted? 8) Verdugo is a good player. If he is *the* star, they are doomed. Like the years when Mike Greenwell was the star. 9) Don’t care. Renfroe is a part time, one year player. I hope he is good enough to trade in 4 months. Which OF is better: Beni/JBJ/Betts or Beni/Renfroe/Kiké/Verdugo? Going backwards is never fun, whatever spray chart you want to break out. 10) I might get a oony this Christmas. I am a person. People do get ponies. There is a Christmas. 11) or for Easter! (Though I have been very enthusiastic about the bullpen moves, so that is long since asked and answered). In response I’d ask: 1) do you think there is a good chance this team makes it to the WS this year? 2) if not, do you think Renfroe, Kiké Andriese,, or Richards play an *increasingly* positive role going forward towards the next real run, the same as this year, or less? 3) How about Downs, Pivetta, and Seabold?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2021 14:22:32 GMT -5
When a team stinks and divests themselves of assets, they should be able to bring in young talent into the farm system and increase the quantity, if not quality of the farm system. If the Sox don't wind up bringing back JBJ, as it appears, it is fair to question why Bloom didn't bring in young talent for him.People bring this up frequently, but what were they ever going to get for him? Maybe slightly more than they got for Pillar? And do you even remember what the return for Pillar was? (He's now our #23 prospect in a mediocre system.) It's not like this was some huge blunder on Bloom's part, especially in light of other considerations (loyalty to home-grown players, or the appearance of same; BLM- and team chemistry-related stuff; better relationship for free agent negotiations). JBJ is better than Pillar, and should have been able to fetch something in somebody's top 20. I would argue that he's more valuable than Workman and Hembree combined, although I wouldn't expect the package to equate to what Philly gave up - there's a reason that GM is out of a job. I would also argue that there's a decent chance that Wallace will wind up in the Sox pen down the road at least in middle relief. Wouldn't shock me if he wound up in high leverage at some point. Maybe it's just that I'm high on Wallace, but I think the Sox got something more valuable than a #23 in a mediocre system. I'm not saying the Sox would have gotten some top 5 talent for JBJ, but I do think they could have gotten something better than a future utility man or up and down reliever. I think the last part of your argument has merit given the circumstances going on and is probably the reason why they didn't make the trade. In a vacuum they should have made a deal for JBJ, but I do get they don't operate in a vacuum.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 14:24:01 GMT -5
This seems like kind of faint praise. “A lot of guys who project to major-league value” seems like the basic definition of a minor league system. So... we have a system!! I am not complaining about the system, btw — more the writing. One thing to add to the "glass half full" category is that the Sox have the #4 pick (and $11M to spend) in the draft, so their ranking should theoretically go up. As you pointed out in another post the jump in rankings is not all credited to Bloom, but going from one of the worst systems a year ago to maybe a league average system post-draft is something to be optimistic about. Fingers crossed on that pick! (Not a shot at anyone... just an incredible crapshoot).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 10, 2021 14:33:05 GMT -5
One thing to add to the "glass half full" category is that the Sox have the #4 pick (and $11M to spend) in the draft, so their ranking should theoretically go up. As you pointed out in another post the jump in rankings is not all credited to Bloom, but going from one of the worst systems a year ago to maybe a league average system post-draft is something to be optimistic about. Fingers crossed on that pick! (Not a shot at anyone... just an incredible crapshoot). It is a crapshoot, but at #4 it needs to be less of one than say the 20th pick of the draft. At #4, you have to hit. I'm probably being overdramatic here. An aging Yankees team badly in need of a youth movement in 1990 got the first pick of the draft and Brien Taylor busted, but it didn't stop them from building a dynasty, spearheaded by a homegrown core. But still, it's hard to have a better chance to land an impact talent than with a high pick like that. Sure, maybe once in a generation your fifth round pick signs last second when somebody else decides not to and develops into Mookie, but the odds of that are not as good as finding a core player with that #4 pick. I honestly think it's the most important draft pick they've had given where they're at since they were a last place team picking 7th in 1993 and they got themselves, not a franchise player, but certainly a core player who contributed to highly competitive and eventually a World Champion team - Trot Nixon. But then again they were in a similar situation in 2013 and picked Trey Ball, who flopped, yet the Sox won the Series that year and then went on to win a World Series with a core of youngsters picked just before or after that time.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 10, 2021 16:18:38 GMT -5
I'm pleased that we went from zero top-100 prospects at the end of the 2019 season to three today. I expect four and maybe five by mid-season: Casas, Downs, No. 4 draft pick, and at least one, maybe two, of Mata, Houck and Duran.
I expect Dalbec to be off the list by mid-season. If he mashes and is still in the The Show, he'll be considered a graduate, not a prospect. If he flops, he'll drop out of the top 100.
I sure do wish we knew what happened with that Padres trade last winter. Was that real?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 10, 2021 16:33:00 GMT -5
I'm probably being overdramatic here. An aging Yankees team badly in need of a youth movement in 1990 got the first pick of the draft and Brien Taylor busted, but it didn't stop them from building a dynasty, spearheaded by a homegrown core. They also had the No. 6 pick in 1992 and ended up with a guy the metrics show was one of the worst defensive SS in the history of the sport (-186 career total FRAA; RF/9 of 4.04, compared to league average of 4.51).
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 10, 2021 16:46:29 GMT -5
I'm pleased that we went from zero top-100 prospects at the end of the 2019 season to three today. I expect four and maybe five by mid-season: Casas, Downs, No. 4 draft pick, and at least one, maybe two, of Mata, Houck and Duran. I expect Dalbec to be off the list by mid-season. If he mashes and is still in the The Show, he'll be considered a graduate, not a prospect. If he flops, he'll drop out of the top 100. I sure do wish we knew what happened with that Padres trade last winter. Was that real? Houck could be off by midseason, too. Or, that would at least be a good outcome.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 11, 2021 9:09:59 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 11, 2021 10:12:30 GMT -5
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 11, 2021 10:52:34 GMT -5
That is interesting.... Groome and Ward over Mata. Given the positive reports on the latter, I hope that is true. It would mean those two are very good. Ward seems like a guy whose name comes up less frequently than some other prospects, but his developmental arc makes him exciting. He seems to be getting better in pretty large bursts.
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