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2020-21 offseason national rankings
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 19, 2021 3:02:35 GMT -5
Law's Writeup: The popular refrain that Boston’s system is bad isn’t really fair or accurate; they have a lot of guys who project to major-league value, and they have a lot of guys with some ceiling who need to get out and play, whether it’s coming back from injury (Jason Groome) or trying to s how a real change in skill (Chris Murphy, Matthew Lugo) or just needing to get off the ship and onto a field (Noah Song). Drafting low in the first round for several years, occasionally going without a first-round pick at all, and then going way off the radar in the 2020 draft did not help matters, however. This seems like kind of faint praise. “A lot of guys who project to major-league value” seems like the basic definition of a minor league system. So... we have a system!! Between this comment, and the site listing Lugo as the DH for Salem (yes, I get Brainer is there) and dropping in the rankings, what is the deal with Lugo? I thought he was toolsy but unrefined, yet the comment suggests he's lacking tools.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2021 8:34:04 GMT -5
This seems like kind of faint praise. “A lot of guys who project to major-league value” seems like the basic definition of a minor league system. So... we have a system!! Between this comment, and the site listing Lugo as the DH for Salem (yes, I get Brainer is there) and dropping in the rankings, what is the deal with Lugo? I thought he was toolsy but unrefined, yet the comment suggests he's lacking tools. You're reading way too much into the DH thing. Minor league teams rarely have full-time DHs. They rotate players through the position. In this case, if you look at the players we have projected for Salem, there are 3 guys who play SS plus Yorke at 2B. If that were the roster, the middle infielders would be rotating through the DH position. As for "dropping" in the rankings, meh? He had an up-and-down Instructs but he's still in the top 20.
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Post by kingstephanos on Feb 19, 2021 13:58:24 GMT -5
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 19, 2021 14:09:39 GMT -5
5 Red Sox on the ZiPS top 100 prospects is pretty nice to see
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2021 14:14:58 GMT -5
Even better: three of them are pitchers.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 24, 2021 12:50:18 GMT -5
“I think their system is a little better,” Baseball America executive editor J.J. Cooper said. “But I also think that, overall, the sea level has risen a little bit this year on what is an average system now.” . “There’s not really anything that would lead me to tell you, ‘Oh yeah, they’re so much better,’ ” said one American League scout. “I think it’s improved slightly since last year,” said another. “It doesn’t happen overnight. Some of the flaws that you had in the system still remain.” [...] “Some of those guys will emerge and be key pieces for us,” said Bloom. “We don’t necessarily know who that’s going to be, but that’s why you need as many of them as you can possibly get.” Advertisement With the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft — the Red Sox’ highest selection since 1967 — they should be able to add an elite talent. Cooper suggested it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Sox vault into the top 10 farm systems by next season. www.bostonglobe.com/2021/02/24/sports/why-hasnt-red-sox-farm-system-ranking-improved/?et_rid=1802577083&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 24, 2021 16:39:21 GMT -5
Top 10 sounds ambitious to me. The No. 4 pick will probably slot in somewhere in the mid-range of the top 100. Unless Casas and/or Downs rises dramatically (which is certainly possible) that would still leave them without a top 10 or top 20-type guy. A top system has to have at least one guy like that, I would think.
If they don't contend, guys they have with only a year of commitment - particuarly Richards, Ottavino, Barnes, and Perez - could fetch another cache of prospects at the deadline. I think that's potentially more trade bait than they had at last year's deadline when they did nicely by moving Moreland, Pillar, Workman, Hembree and Osich.
And no, I'm not starting out the season rooting for losses. But I also don't want to be on the fringes of contention at the deadline and then miss the PS without moving guys. In other words, I'd prefer 78 wins and no sniff of the PS to 88 wins, just missing the PS and not adding to the system at the deadline.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 24, 2021 17:01:33 GMT -5
Top 10 sounds ambitious to me. The No. 4 pick will probably slot in somewhere in the mid-range of the top 100. Unless Casas and/or Downs rises dramatically (which is certainly possible) that would still leave them without a top 10 or top 20-type guy. A top system has to have at least one guy like that, I would think. If they don't contend, guys they have with only a year of commitment - particuarly Richards, Ottavino, Barnes, and Perez - could fetch another cache of prospects at the deadline. I think that's potentially more trade bait than they had at last year's deadline when they did nicely by moving Moreland, Pillar, Workman, Hembree and Osich. And no, I'm not starting out the season rooting for losses. But I also don't want to be on the fringes of contention at the deadline and then miss the PS without moving guys. In other words, I'd prefer 78 wins and no sniff of the PS to 88 wins, just missing the PS and not adding to the system at the deadline. The thing about Richards, though, is that if he's good enough to get a good trade return, he's probably good enough to pick up the 2022 option.
Eovaldi, though, might be an interesting one to trade if they were willing to eat most of his contract. Or even if they just wanted to shed his salary to have more money to apply to the free agent market next off-season.
But we get ahead of ourselves...
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 24, 2021 17:12:38 GMT -5
Top 10 sounds ambitious to me. The No. 4 pick will probably slot in somewhere in the mid-range of the top 100. Unless Casas and/or Downs rises dramatically (which is certainly possible) that would still leave them without a top 10 or top 20-type guy. A top system has to have at least one guy like that, I would think. If they don't contend, guys they have with only a year of commitment - particuarly Richards, Ottavino, Barnes, and Perez - could fetch another cache of prospects at the deadline. I think that's potentially more trade bait than they had at last year's deadline when they did nicely by moving Moreland, Pillar, Workman, Hembree and Osich. And no, I'm not starting out the season rooting for losses. But I also don't want to be on the fringes of contention at the deadline and then miss the PS without moving guys. In other words, I'd prefer 78 wins and no sniff of the PS to 88 wins, just missing the PS and not adding to the system at the deadline. The thing about Richards, though, is that if he's good enough to get a good trade return, he's probably good enough to pick up the 2022 option.
Eovaldi, though, might be an interesting one to trade if they were willing to eat most of his contract. Or even if they just wanted to shed his salary to have more money to apply to the free agent market next off-season.
But we get ahead of ourselves...
Yes, I've thought of that on Richards. It's a good point. You might say the same for Perez. OTOH, if JDM mashes I'd see him as being in the last year of his contract and tradeable for prospects. He has $19.4M coming in 2022. He'd be able to get a multi-year deal on the FA market by opting out coming off a big year. It was nice to hear him say yesterday that he's prepared for this season, unlike last year when he screwed off after ST was shut down and showed up in July unable to perform his $110M job.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 24, 2021 17:20:22 GMT -5
Top 10 sounds ambitious to me. The No. 4 pick will probably slot in somewhere in the mid-range of the top 100. Unless Casas and/or Downs rises dramatically (which is certainly possible) that would still leave them without a top 10 or top 20-type guy. A top system has to have at least one guy like that, I would think. If they don't contend, guys they have with only a year of commitment - particuarly Richards, Ottavino, Barnes, and Perez - could fetch another cache of prospects at the deadline. I think that's potentially more trade bait than they had at last year's deadline when they did nicely by moving Moreland, Pillar, Workman, Hembree and Osich. And no, I'm not starting out the season rooting for losses. But I also don't want to be on the fringes of contention at the deadline and then miss the PS without moving guys. In other words, I'd prefer 78 wins and no sniff of the PS to 88 wins, just missing the PS and not adding to the system at the deadline. I think the quote was not that they would have a guy jump into the top 10 of all prospects, but that the system could have several of Sox' 5th-30th ranked guys would be looked at more favorably so that the whole system could (just could; he "would not be shocked") be ranked top 10 as a system.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 24, 2021 17:24:14 GMT -5
Top 10 sounds ambitious to me. The No. 4 pick will probably slot in somewhere in the mid-range of the top 100. Unless Casas and/or Downs rises dramatically (which is certainly possible) that would still leave them without a top 10 or top 20-type guy. A top system has to have at least one guy like that, I would think. If they don't contend, guys they have with only a year of commitment - particuarly Richards, Ottavino, Barnes, and Perez - could fetch another cache of prospects at the deadline. I think that's potentially more trade bait than they had at last year's deadline when they did nicely by moving Moreland, Pillar, Workman, Hembree and Osich. And no, I'm not starting out the season rooting for losses. But I also don't want to be on the fringes of contention at the deadline and then miss the PS without moving guys. In other words, I'd prefer 78 wins and no sniff of the PS to 88 wins, just missing the PS and not adding to the system at the deadline. I think the quote was not that they would have a guy jump into the top 10 of all prospects, but that the system could have several of Sox' 5th-30th ranked guys would be looked at more favorably so that the whole system could (just could; he "would not be shocked") be ranked top 10 as a system. I know. I understand. My point was that it seems unlikely a system can be considered top 10 if that system doesn't have at least one elite prospect.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2021 17:40:58 GMT -5
The thing about Richards, though, is that if he's good enough to get a good trade return, he's probably good enough to pick up the 2022 option. Eovaldi, though, might be an interesting one to trade if they were willing to eat most of his contract. Or even if they just wanted to shed his salary to have more money to apply to the free agent market next off-season.
But we get ahead of ourselves...
Yes, I've thought of that on Richards. It's a good point. You might say the same for Perez. OTOH, if JDM mashes I'd see him as being in the last year of his contract and tradeable for prospects. He has $19.4M coming in 2022. He'd be able to get a multi-year deal on the FA market by opting out coming off a big year. It was nice to hear him say yesterday that he's prepared for this season, unlike last year when he screwed off after ST was shut down and showed up in July unable to perform his $110M job. Eh, I could see them dealing Richards or Perez rather than picking up the option. If this team is out of contention at the deadline and some combination of Houck/Mata/Seabold/Ward/whoever is beating down the door, you could certainly justify dealing a Richards or Perez and giving those young guys some run in order to get a prospect return for the guy you dealt.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 24, 2021 17:46:28 GMT -5
Yes, I've thought of that on Richards. It's a good point. You might say the same for Perez. OTOH, if JDM mashes I'd see him as being in the last year of his contract and tradeable for prospects. He has $19.4M coming in 2022. He'd be able to get a multi-year deal on the FA market by opting out coming off a big year. It was nice to hear him say yesterday that he's prepared for this season, unlike last year when he screwed off after ST was shut down and showed up in July unable to perform his $110M job. Eh, I could see them dealing Richards or Perez rather than picking up the option. If this team is out of contention at the deadline and some combination of Houck/Mata/Seabold/Ward/whoever is beating down the door, you could certainly justify dealing a Richards or Perez and giving those young guys some run in order to get a prospect return for the guy you dealt. That makes sense, Chris. The 2022 team options on Richards and Perez could make them even more valuable as trade chips. The options also give the RS more room to reward the acquiring team and increase the prospect return. The RS could agree to kick in a portion of the 2022 salary to incresae the prospect return.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2021 18:22:33 GMT -5
Eh, I could see them dealing Richards or Perez rather than picking up the option. If this team is out of contention at the deadline and some combination of Houck/Mata/Seabold/Ward/whoever is beating down the door, you could certainly justify dealing a Richards or Perez and giving those young guys some run in order to get a prospect return for the guy you dealt. That makes sense, Chris. The 2022 team options on Richards and Perez could make them even more valuable as trade chips. The options also give the RS more room to reward the acquiring team and increase the prospect return. The RS could agree to kick in a portion of the 2022 salary to incresae the prospect return. I doubt they'd need to kick in money if they're pitching well enough for a team to trade for those guys. Agreed on the rest though - that's definitely part of the value of club options (see Moreland, who the Padres then didn't even bother picking up the option on of course).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 25, 2021 9:27:34 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 25, 2021 17:10:00 GMT -5
I'll add one possible other factor, based on one data point: teams with a bad but improved farm system may tend to be underrated. Where would you rate this system? It was 23 the year before. (I've mentioned this previolsy, so some of you might remember!) Name Rank WAR Peak3 Dustin Pedroia 6 51.6 21.0 Jon Lester 4 45.0+ 17.9 Hanley Ramirez 1 37.9 19.3 Anibal Sanchez 5 29.3+ 13.5 Jonat. Papelbon 3 23.3 11.6 David Murphy 15 10.0 7.7 Kelly Shoppach 8 8.3 6.1 Brandon Moss 2 5.0 6.8 Manny Delcarmen 11 3.8 3.6 Cla Meredith 21 3.0 3.4 Luis Mendoza dc -1.2 3.2 Kason Gabbard dc 1.8 1.8 David Pauley 26 1.0 2.5 Tommy Hottovy 18 0.1 0.1 (And Dusty Brown, Adam Stern, Abe Alvarez, and Charlie Zink, for the completists.)
That's not a #21 farm system, is it? Next year (2006) it was #7 even after trading Hanley and Sanchez.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 25, 2021 17:19:45 GMT -5
I'll add one possible other factor, based on one data point: teams with a bad but improved farm system may tend to be underrated. Where would you rate this system? It was 23 the year before. (I've mentioned this previolsy, so some of you might remember!) Name Rank WAR Peak3 Dustin Pedroia 6 51.6 21.0 Jon Lester 4 45.0+ 17.9 Hanley Ramirez 1 37.9 19.3 Anibal Sanchez 5 29.3+ 13.5 Jonat. Papelbon 3 23.3 11.6 David Murphy 15 10.0 7.7 Kelly Shoppach 8 8.3 6.1 Brandon Moss 2 5.0 6.8 Manny Delcarmen 11 3.8 3.6 Cla Meredith 21 3.0 3.4 Luis Mendoza dc -1.2 3.2 Kason Gabbard dc 1.8 1.8 David Pauley 26 1.0 2.5 Tommy Hottovy 18 0.1 0.1 (And Dusty Brown, Adam Stern, Abe Alvarez, and Charlie Zink, for the completists.)
That's not a #21 farm system, is it? Next year (2006) it was #7 even after trading Hanley and Sanchez.
Is there such thing as one data point? (Besides that it would be datum)? I mean, you can’t have a pattern of one. Maybe the system is ranked where it is because it is still not very good?
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Post by ramireja on Feb 25, 2021 17:36:40 GMT -5
I haven't read the Speier article so apologies if this is part of his point, but farm system rankings are generally more weighted by a system's high-end talent and rightfully so. Although the system's depth is greatly improved (its pretty impressive right now, seriously), the recent acquisitions either led to major league talent (Verdugo, Pivetta, Cordero) or guys with current projected FV ranging from 35 to 45 with the exception of Downs. To move the needle in a farm system ranking sense, we really need more FV45+, FV50, FV55 and FV60 type of talent. Now the good news, is that more depth = more opportunities for those guys to emerge so it improves our odds of climbing the rankings.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 26, 2021 8:06:41 GMT -5
I'll add one possible other factor, based on one data point: teams with a bad but improved farm system may tend to be underrated. Where would you rate this system? It was 23 the year before. (I've mentioned this previolsy, so some of you might remember!) Name Rank WAR Peak3 Dustin Pedroia 6 51.6 21.0 Jon Lester 4 45.0+ 17.9 Hanley Ramirez 1 37.9 19.3 Anibal Sanchez 5 29.3+ 13.5 Jonat. Papelbon 3 23.3 11.6 David Murphy 15 10.0 7.7 Kelly Shoppach 8 8.3 6.1 Brandon Moss 2 5.0 6.8 Manny Delcarmen 11 3.8 3.6 Cla Meredith 21 3.0 3.4 Luis Mendoza dc -1.2 3.2 Kason Gabbard dc 1.8 1.8 David Pauley 26 1.0 2.5 Tommy Hottovy 18 0.1 0.1 (And Dusty Brown, Adam Stern, Abe Alvarez, and Charlie Zink, for the completists.)
That's not a #21 farm system, is it? Next year (2006) it was #7 even after trading Hanley and Sanchez.
Is there such thing as one data point? (Besides that it would be datum)? I mean, you can’t have a pattern of one. Maybe the system is ranked where it is because it is still not very good? You can't have a pattern of 1, but if you find something in 1 of the last 15 years for one team, it's worth looking to see whether it there would be a pattern if you had information on every team.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Feb 26, 2021 9:48:26 GMT -5
yeah, like the lottery is a bad idea, in general. It's very negative expected value.
Yet, people win the lottery.
I think it's not a good idea to look at outliers as proof of something greater....
That said, I very much suspect major league baseball teams don't evaluate player development through the lenses of top 10/20/200/500 lists. We fans are incredibly fortunate for orgs like Baseball America, Fangraphs, etc. We Red Sox fans are insanely fortunate for this site that provides what has to be the best coverage of any single farm system in baseball, by a healthy margin.
But... none of these entities are baseball teams. Who probably have don't spend much time worried about rankings and hold vastly different opinions of specific talent than these media outlets.
None of this is to bury the outlets, we as fans need them. We'd know nothing without them. I again, think we're all insanely lucky for this site. But I bet you the folks who've worked in baseball (Kiley McDaniel, for example).
But when you consider how much revenue drafting Mookie Betts gets ya, I'd assume a billion dollar enterprise like the Red Sox, can spend a little bit more liberally on staff than a media outlet.
I think as a fan, I ignore the rankings, and get value out of the scouting grades and write ups.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 26, 2021 10:16:40 GMT -5
yeah, like the lottery is a bad idea, in general. It's very negative expected value. Yet, people win the lottery. I think it's not a good idea to look at outliers as proof of something greater.... That said, I very much suspect major league baseball teams don't evaluate player development through the lenses of top 10/20/200/500 lists. We fans are incredibly fortunate for orgs like Baseball America, Fangraphs, etc. We Red Sox fans are insanely fortunate for this site that provides what has to be the best coverage of any single farm system in baseball, by a healthy margin. But... none of these entities are baseball teams. Who probably have don't spend much time worried about rankings and hold vastly different opinions of specific talent than these media outlets. None of this is to bury the outlets, we as fans need them. We'd know nothing without them. I again, think we're all insanely lucky for this site. But I bet you the folks who've worked in baseball (Kiley McDaniel, for example). But when you consider how much revenue drafting Mookie Betts gets ya, I'd assume a billion dollar enterprise like the Red Sox, can spend a little bit more liberally on staff than a media outlet. I think as a fan, I ignore the rankings, and get value out of the scouting grades and write ups. These are all very weak arguments. You look at something that occurred once in 15 years and imply it is as rare as winning the lottery. The research on whether it is rare has not been done. That each team's internal info is probably better than that of little media outlets is right, but irrelevant. Cooper says he would not be shocked if the Sox jumped into being a top 10 system next year. That's a cautious, interesting, plausible claim. There are several people who might (or might not) take great leaps forward.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2021 13:37:42 GMT -5
I haven't read the Speier article so apologies if this is part of his point, but farm system rankings are generally more weighted by a system's high-end talent and rightfully so. Although the system's depth is greatly improved (its pretty impressive right now, seriously), the recent acquisitions either led to major league talent (Verdugo, Pivetta, Cordero) or guys with current projected FV ranging from 35 to 45 with the exception of Downs. To move the needle in a farm system ranking sense, we really need more FV45+, FV50, FV55 and FV60 type of talent. Now the good news, is that more depth = more opportunities for those guys to emerge so it improves our odds of climbing the rankings. Excellent summary of what were basically the main points of the article. Lol.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 26, 2021 21:29:15 GMT -5
Is there such thing as one data point? (Besides that it would be datum)? I mean, you can’t have a pattern of one. Maybe the system is ranked where it is because it is still not very good? You can't have a pattern of 1, but if you find something in 1 of the last 15 years for one team, it's worth looking to see whether it there would be a pattern if you had information on every team. I would love to see the total WAR accrued by all the non-rookies (defined as BA does, ignoring service time) in each system every year, together with the BA rankings. I suspect someone has done it, but it would be out of date now. And there's no data source I know of that easily shows what organization a player was with each year at the time the BA handbook went to press. You'd have to write code that grabbed and parsed the Transactions.
Re jimoh's point, when what was (almost certainly) the best farm system in MLB gets rated 21st, by a source as in-the-know as BA, that just screams out for investigation. If you find that one of your employees is a Russian agent (in a job where that matters), that's just one data point, too. Do you or do you not look for agents in other departments in the company?
Re my guess about the existence of the effect ... does a guy in a bad system sometimes get rated worse than he would in a good system? I mean, would Tanner Houck be better regarded if he were the next man up in a long line of successful pitching prospects, rather than the guy trying to end a notorious drought? As a student of psychology I'd be shocked if there wasn't such an effect. But I have no idea of the size.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 9, 2021 11:36:28 GMT -5
New MLB Pipeline top 30 for the Red Sox: 1. Triston Casas 2. Jeter Downs 3. Bobby Dalbec 4. Jarren Duran 5. Bryan Mata 6. Gilberto Jimenez 7. Tanner Houck 8. Jay Groome 9. Nick Yorke 10. Thad Ward 11. Blaze Jordan 12. Ronaldo Hernandez 13. Matthew Lugo 14. Noah Song 15. Connor Seabold 16. Brainer Bonaci 17. Connor Wong 18. Chris Murphy 19. Brayan Bello 20 Aldo Ramirez 21. Chih-Jung Liu 22. Jeisson Rosario 23. Nick Decker 24. Hudson Potts 25. Juan Chacon 26. Cameron Cannon 27. AJ Politi 28. Eduard Bazardo 29. Jacob Wallace 30. Garrett Whitlock www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-top-30-prospects-list-2021-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 9, 2021 11:47:18 GMT -5
New MLB Pipeline top 30 for the Red Sox: 1. Triston Casas 2. Jeter Downs 3. Bobby Dalbec 4. Jarren Duran 5. Bryan Mata 6. Gilberto Jimenez 7. Tanner Houck 8. Jay Groome 9. Nick Yorke 10. Thad Ward 11. Blaze Jordan 12. Ronaldo Hernandez 13. Matthew Lugo 14. Noah Song 15. Connor Seabold 16. Brainer Bonaci 17. Connor Wong 18. Chris Murphy 19. Brayan Bello 20 Aldo Ramirez 21. Chih-Jung Liu 22. Jeisson Rosario 23. Nick Decker 24. Hudson Potts 25. Juan Chacon 26. Cameron Cannon 27. AJ Politi 28. Eduard Bazardo 29. Jacob Wallace 30. Garrett Whitlock www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-top-30-prospects-list-2021-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageIt is kind of interesting to me to have Whitlock so low. I mean, setting aside upside, projection, whatever.... the dude is here. He is almost certainly a MLer as of opening day. I suspect there are a good number of people ranked ahead of him who won’t be. So now if he is even passable, he’s almost guaranteed to produce more career value than those guys. I know that’s not exactly what this is ranking, but the fact that he is even good enough to use a roster spot on suggests something about his perceived value.
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