ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2020 11:22:47 GMT -5
Yesterday sucked. Hopefully today we'll see the A's and Rays win. Framber Valdez's last 3 appearances have been dominant, but he had a 6.92 ERA in his 4 starts before that (late August to mid September). That's the guy who needs to show up tonight. The Rays matchup is much more promising; after his first 4 very rough starts, Glasnow has a 3.00 ERA and a .586 OPS allowed (regular season).
Meanwhile, it's not unheard of for me to score every pitch of three playoff games in a day (I get a lot of reading done between pitches, which has the added advantage of having to ignore the announcers), and that was my intent in this round whenever the A's, Rays, and Padres were playing the same day.
Unfortunately, the Dodgers / Padres game is starting just 88 minutes after the Yankees / Rays game, and each network usually gives the score of the other game occasionally. So I'll alternate between them, which is fun but potentially confusing. I'll have to think about whether to alternate magazines, too. (No, I am not keeping paragraphs per inning statistics.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2020 11:54:48 GMT -5
The presence of Montas and Wendelken on the A's roster inspired this bWAR math on the Jake Peavy trade tree:
7.8 Jose Iglesias before free agency 1.9 + 3 years Frankie Montas 1.4 + 4 years J.B. Wendelken <0.0 Brandon Workman
0.4 Jake Peavy 2.1 Heath Hembree 0.6 + 4 years Nick Pivetta --- + 6 years Connor Seabold
Hembree was a very reliable 0.4 or 0.5 a year, so we were looking at losing this, 11.1 + 7 years of Montas and Wendelken, to 3.6.
Thanks to Bloom, we have a chance to win; it's 10 years of Pivetta and Seabold (or whatever we get for them) versus 7 of the two A's pitchers, spotting them an 8 win lead.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 6, 2020 13:44:34 GMT -5
Max Fried can beat the jeterfish.
Yanks will flop
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 6, 2020 15:23:16 GMT -5
Clevinger will get game 1 vs the Dodgers.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 6, 2020 16:50:38 GMT -5
Manaea is not getting the job done. 4 innings, pull him
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Post by Coreno on Oct 6, 2020 18:12:28 GMT -5
If the ALCS is NYY/HOU, I will puke.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 6, 2020 20:20:11 GMT -5
old friend Manny Margot with the big home run
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Post by jkfer98 on Oct 6, 2020 20:22:36 GMT -5
Is anyone surprised Margot lands with Tampa and is now getting big hits in the postseason? Typical Rays.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 6, 2020 20:23:05 GMT -5
If the ALCS is NYY/HOU, I will puke. My exact thoughts, lol.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 6, 2020 20:38:44 GMT -5
cool that both stanton and judge miraculously manage to both be healthy and hot in this PS
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Post by unitspin on Oct 6, 2020 20:52:02 GMT -5
cool that both stanton and judge miraculously manage to both be healthy and hot in this PS Both did their rehab at balco, joking but not really. On a side note if happ is their #2 how they going to make an entire season if they do intend on getting under the cap. If they lose happ, tanaka and Paxton.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 6, 2020 22:53:56 GMT -5
Fairbanks looked scared lol but he got the job done!! I’ll take it
Add cb Buckner had one of the most laughable strike zones I gave seen in a while
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 6, 2020 22:54:45 GMT -5
Good, the Rays pull out game 2. CB Bucknor was atrocious all game, this guy should not have an umpiring job. Robot umps when?
I mean, it's great that it bit the Yankees more than it did the Rays, but sheeeesh
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 6, 2020 22:56:47 GMT -5
Gotta give cash credit for sticking with Fairbanks, I would have pulled him but that’s why cash is a world class manager
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 7, 2020 0:28:05 GMT -5
I got to watch some of the Padres/Dodgers game while my kids were lunchbreaking from Zoom. It surprises me that MLB.TV doesn't show network commercials between innings. Seems like they are missing out an opportunity to make money.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 7, 2020 10:22:56 GMT -5
Good, the Rays pull out game 2. CB Bucknor was atrocious all game, this guy should not have an umpiring job. Robot umps when? I mean, it's great that it bit the Yankees more than it did the Rays, but sheeeesh I had 6 or 7 calls that went against the Yankees and 5 or 6 against the Rays. But the worst sequence was the one the Rays fan posted above. That's Zunino up in the bottom of the third with 2 outs and runners on second and third. Instead of Happ being behind 3-0, he's ahead 1-2.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 7, 2020 11:20:15 GMT -5
This chart is from a detailed SABR study about The Count and what it means for batters. With it at 1-2, the likelihood of the batter getting on base is .216 and at 3-0 it's .755, a difference that can easily be a game changer. The entire chart is really useful for understanding what's at stake when it comes to pitch counts.
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 7, 2020 11:53:29 GMT -5
Gotta give cash credit for sticking with Fairbanks, I would have pulled him but that’s why cash is a world class manager The Frazier at bat was critical. He got a borderline strike call and Frazier looked to have swung at what might have been called ball 4 (who knows?). That would have loaded the bases and changed the inning. I thought Fairbanks looked terrified too. It worked out in the end but I might not have been that patient. If Stanton continues to hit like this in the playoffs, someone might make the argument that his contract is not as much underwater as it seems.
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 7, 2020 13:59:47 GMT -5
The presence of Montas and Wendelken on the A's roster inspired this bWAR math on the Jake Peavy trade tree: 7.8 Jose Iglesias before free agency 1.9 + 3 years Frankie Montas 1.4 + 4 years J.B. Wendelken <0.0 Brandon Workman 0.4 Jake Peavy 2.1 Heath Hembree 0.6 + 4 years Nick Pivetta --- + 6 years Connor Seabold Hembree was a very reliable 0.4 or 0.5 a year, so we were looking at losing this, 11.1 + 7 years of Montas and Wendelken, to 3.6. Thanks to Bloom, we have a chance to win; it's 10 years of Pivetta and Seabold (or whatever we get for them) versus 7 of the two A's pitchers, spotting them an 8 win lead.
When Montas had his 13k game on Sept 27, I was immediately reminded of the trade. Too bad he had to be included as one of the extra pieces. I think the Peavy trade can be judged by how much you value his contribution in one good playoff game against Tampa. www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/id/331008130This game won the series and prevented a winner advances game 5 against the Rays back at Fenway. Price was scheduled and was hit hard in his first playoff game in the series. Still, I was relieved the Sox wrapped things up early. Even with another win against Price, who knows how playing another game would have affected the Tiger series that followed. The trade would not look as good without hoisting the WS banner that year but I am generally OK with it. It is rare to "win" a win now trade with overall WAR. To even approach a break even point is an incredible victory considering the trade also made a small contribution to a championship. (He was also the game 3 WS starter and gave them a chance to win until the 9th inning error and Middlebrooks interference) www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201310260.shtml
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 7, 2020 14:47:42 GMT -5
The best WS I canhopefor is ATL v. TB
But SD & OAK are still kicking
Urquidy HOUS at 40 pitches ... to get 4 outs
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 7, 2020 20:06:17 GMT -5
I have a simple question: Charlie Morton was an ok pitcher with the Pirates, but got to be very good with Astros. What changed? It is an amazibg late career gear shift.
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Post by patford on Oct 7, 2020 21:12:10 GMT -5
Good, the Rays pull out game 2. CB Bucknor was atrocious all game, this guy should not have an umpiring job. Robot umps when? I mean, it's great that it bit the Yankees more than it did the Rays, but sheeeesh I had 6 or 7 calls that went against the Yankees and 5 or 6 against the Rays. But the worst sequence was the one the Rays fan posted above. That's Zunino up in the bottom of the third with 2 outs and runners on second and third. Instead of Happ being behind 3-0, he's ahead 1-2. Calls can even out numerically but not all bad calls are equal. What really matters is bad calls at key moments. A player in a big at bat who either stays alive on a bad call or who is called out on a bad call.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 7, 2020 21:20:12 GMT -5
Given the stat above that the Rays were 27-0 when leading after the 7th. Rays are up 8-4 ib the bottom of the 8th. Maybe there is a baseball god.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 7, 2020 23:29:19 GMT -5
Braves, A's, Rays & Dodgers winners today.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 8, 2020 0:33:48 GMT -5
The 9th inning of the Dodgers-Padres game was very exciting, courtesy of one of those patented Joe Kelly moments. Jansen had come in to try to close out a 6-3 lead but he's just a shadow of himself these days. Fastball barely tops out at 90.
He gets one out, gives up a single, then Moreland launches one of his rockets into the gap in right for a double scoring the runner. He gets another out but gives up a hit to Grisham and Moreland scores. With Tatis coming to bat, Roberts pulls Jansen for smokin' Joe and the fun begins. Two extended at bats, enough to chew down all the available fingernails on both teams. Tatis and Machado both walk and he finally gets Hosmer to ground out with the bases loaded. Dodger end-of-game celebration amounts to what looks to be a collective sigh of relief.
They've actually been using Graterol on and off as the closer but he's got his own issues. This appears to be a weak point for them.
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