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MLB Playoffs - League Championship Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2020 20:56:01 GMT -5
McCullers didn't make it thru the 4th. Now it's up to the Asstros pen.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 17, 2020 21:33:12 GMT -5
Wow. If the rays lose it 100% on cash. How you yank a guy pitching that good is laughable. And he puts Anderson in who has looked rough.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2020 21:36:00 GMT -5
Morton 66 pitches. I really don't understand the move but it worked out that inning.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2020 22:26:36 GMT -5
Phew
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2020 22:53:10 GMT -5
2004 intact
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 17, 2020 22:55:14 GMT -5
It'll be broken at some point, but at least that stat stays in tact for a little while longer.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 17, 2020 22:55:25 GMT -5
Hopefully cash does a better job in the WS. He put his team in some bad spots. All we need is Atl to make it happen now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2020 23:29:54 GMT -5
Phew is right. I'm glad the Astros didn't win. I'm glad that winning a series when down 3-0 remains exclusive domain of the 2004 Red Sox and that conversely, blowing a 3 game to 0 lead remains the exclusive humiliation of the 2004 Yankees.
If another team was going to accomplish that comeback, I'm sure as hell glad it wasn't the cheating Astros.
Two other things struck me about all of this.
This is the second pennant for the Rays and the second time they absolutely blew the ALCS and survived it anyways. I'm a huge believer in momentum but the Rays bucked that trend twice. Here they blow a 3-0 lead in games but yet recovered to hang on to win Game 7.
Of course, most of you recall that the Rays in 2008 were just 7 outs away up 3 games to 1 and leading the Red Sox by 7 runs, yet blew the game anyways and lost Game 6 in Tampa and actually trailed in the 1st inning after a Pedroia HR before Garza settled down, smothered the Red Sox, and a young David Price got a generous strike 3 call on JD Drew to snuff an 8th inning rally before Tampa knocked out the Sox win a 3-1 victory.
Those were the situations where devastating losses could have killed them, but somehow they recovered. I suspect (and could be wrong) that the Braves won't be as fortunate tomorrow and everybody will be pointing to the play where Mookie made that shoestring catch which resulted in a DP eventually after a run was taken off the board when it was obvious that Ozuna left too soon.
The other thing that struck me was a 2020 managing style thing. Why in the hell do you take out a Charlie Morton who is absolutely cruising and subject yourself to hoping that you can get 10 outs from your bullpen when you don't need to do that??!!
Morton was dealing and probably could have gone all 9 innings the way he was going. I get that pitchers aren't normally anywhere near effective the 3rd time around the order (and Morton's numbers show that) - but sometimes it's obvious that a pitcher just HAS it that day. I mean the Astros had to be stoked to see him out of the game and the Rays were one big mistake away from losing the game. Nothing against Anderson or Fairbanks, but when you know your starter is dealing, why take a chance on bringing out multiple pitchers and hoping that they all have their stuff that day? That's a lot to hope for. Or at least shorten the outs needed. I don't see why Morton couldn't have made it through the 7th inning at the very least.
Reminds me of what happened to the Dodgers when Roberts removed Rich Hill. Then he needed about a half a dozen pitchers to get the last 8 outs and it turned out they all sucked that day and gave up 9 runs and gave away the series.
I really wish managers would ride their horses when it's obvious they have it that day. Such a 2020 thing - the everybody has to pitch stuff.
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Post by marrcus on Oct 17, 2020 23:47:32 GMT -5
It is odd rooting for a team you don't like and I don't know why I was so confident Hou wasn't coming back, after the huge Arozarena bomb. Congrats to our guy on being TB FO, once removed on the pennant.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2020 0:28:16 GMT -5
It is odd rooting for a team you don't like and I don't know why I was so confident Hou wasn't coming back, after the huge Arozarena bomb. Congrats to our guy on being TB FO, once removed on the pennant. Randy Arozarena was downright Ortizian, wasn't he? If the Sox had a pitching prospect the caliber of Liberatore I'd be ticked that they'd trade him, but geez, didn't the Rays really do their homework with that Arozarena guy? I really misunderstood that trade when the Rays made it. I figured the prize for them was the strong bat of Jose Martinez, a cheap DH for them, but they gave up on him after about 5 minutes. Now it is obviously clear that the real prize for them was Arozarena. They knew what they had in him. I wonder if the Cards quite knew, given their OF issues. Hopefully for them Liberatore pans out, which I think he will, not that the Rays will complain.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2020 0:38:48 GMT -5
Phew is right. I'm glad the Astros didn't win. I'm glad that winning a series when down 3-0 remains exclusive domain of the 2004 Red Sox and that conversely, blowing a 3 game to 0 lead remains the exclusive humiliation of the 2004 Yankees. If another team was going to accomplish that comeback, I'm sure as hell glad it wasn't the cheating Astros. Two other things struck me about all of this. This is the second pennant for the Rays and the second time they absolutely blew the ALCS and survived it anyways. I'm a huge believer in momentum but the Rays bucked that trend twice. Here they blow a 3-0 lead in games but yet recovered to hang on to win Game 7. Of course, most of you recall that the Rays in 2008 were just 7 outs away up 3 games to 1 and leading the Red Sox by 7 runs, yet blew the game anyways and lost Game 6 in Tampa and actually trailed in the 1st inning after a Pedroia HR before Garza settled down, smothered the Red Sox, and a young David Price got a generous strike 3 call on JD Drew to snuff an 8th inning rally before Tampa knocked out the Sox win a 3-1 victory. Those were the situations where devastating losses could have killed them, but somehow they recovered. I suspect (and could be wrong) that the Braves won't be as fortunate tomorrow and everybody will be pointing to the play where Mookie made that shoestring catch which resulted in a DP eventually after a run was taken off the board when it was obvious that Ozuna left too soon. The other thing that struck me was a 2020 managing style thing. Why in the hell do you take out a Charlie Morton who is absolutely cruising and subject yourself to hoping that you can get 10 outs from your bullpen when you don't need to do that??!! Morton was dealing and probably could have gone all 9 innings the way he was going. I get that pitchers aren't normally anywhere near effective the 3rd time around the order (and Morton's numbers show that) - but sometimes it's obvious that a pitcher just HAS it that day. I mean the Astros had to be stoked to see him out of the game and the Rays were one big mistake away from losing the game. Nothing against Anderson or Fairbanks, but when you know your starter is dealing, why take a chance on bringing out multiple pitchers and hoping that they all have their stuff that day? That's a lot to hope for. Or at least shorten the outs needed. I don't see why Morton couldn't have made it through the 7th inning at the very least. Reminds me of what happened to the Dodgers when Roberts removed Rich Hill. Then he needed about a half a dozen pitchers to get the last 8 outs and it turned out they all sucked that day and gave up 9 runs and gave away the series. I really wish managers would ride their horses when it's obvious they have it that day. Such a 2020 thing - the everybody has to pitch stuff. Because he wasn't.
He got 4 outs with his first 14 pitches. Then he did it again. Then he got 4 outs with 15 pitches, and then 3 outs with 7 pitches, two of them three-pitch strikeouts.
Then he walked the number 9 hitter on four straight pitches. He did get Springer out on 3 pitches, but he took 7 pitches (longest PA of the day) to give up the Altuve infield single, after getting a really generous called strike on his 1-1 pitch.
So, unless what you meant by "absolutely cruising" was "starting to falter," you're wrong. No way you let him face Brantley a third time. Brantley had an .840 xBA on his first-inning single. The non-Brantley hitters had averaged .098.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 1:12:12 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 1:52:26 GMT -5
/photo/1
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 3:04:50 GMT -5
It appears that every time a team is down 0-3, the 2004 Sox will be remembered. That's a good thing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 5:15:13 GMT -5
Interestingly, with 3 7 game series a year, a team losing three then winning 4 should happen once every 21.33 years, assuming equal teams. A game 7 under those circumstances should happen once every 10.667 years. This is the 16th year since 2004.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2020 10:08:39 GMT -5
The Rays are the 39th team in post-season history to go up 3 games to 0. 30 of the 39 teams swept. 5 of the teams lost game 4 and won game 5: the 1910 A's, the '37 Yankees, the '70 Orioles, the '16 Indians vs. the Jays, and the '17 Dodgers vs. the Cubs. Only 3 teams previously have ever forced a game 6 after going down 3-0.
The 1998 Braves won games 4 and 5 before losing to the Padres in 6. The Padres then got swept by the Yankees.
The 1999 Mets won games 4 and 5 before losing to the Braves in 6. The Braves then got swept by the Yankees. You know the other one. Edit: three of the clubs won the first two at home; the Padres in '98 won the first 2 on the road. So the Rays are like the Braves and Yankees in having home field to win 1 game out of 2. Home field advantage in baseball is almost entirely scoring in the first inning (where the home starter can stay in a routine before he throws his first pitch, while the road starter has to sit and wait), and the Mistake in Tampa is not a park you can really suit your team to.
I've corrected that older post ...
Teams that won the first 3 games of the CS have fared poorly in the WS. In fact, they're 2-11.
The '88 A's swept the Sox and lost in 5 to the Dodgers. The '90 A's swept the Sox and got swept by the Reds. As just noted, the '98 Padres and '99 Braves also got swept in the WS. The '06 Tigers swept the A's and lost to the Cardinals in 5. The '07 Rockies swept the Diamondbacks and you know what happened next. And the '12 Tigers swept the Yankees and got swept by the Giants. The only team to even get to a game 6 in the WS was the '95 Braves, who beat the Indians in 6.
You probably recall that after 2012 there was a lot of talk about how sweeping the CS was bad because the long layoff made you rusty. That hasn't been nearly as obvious since.
The '14 Royals swept the O's and lost in 7 to the Giants, after winning games 2 and 3. The '15 Mets swept the Cubs and lost in 5 to the Royals, winning game 3. The '16 Indians and '17 Dodgers, who each won in 5 as noted above, lost to the Cubs and Astros in 7, respectively; the Indians won games 1, 3, and 4, and the Dodgers won 1, 4, and 6. The '19 Nationals beat the Astros in 7, winning 1, 2, 6, and 7 on the road.
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This is just the 3rd year that both CS have gone to 7 games. But given the percentage of series that go to 7, that's exactly what you would expect. 38 of the 111 WS played in the 7 game format (4 have been played with 9) went the distance. 19 of the 70 CS have; that's 34% and 27% respectively, which is not a statistically significant difference (p = .31). The overall percentage of 31.5% predicts 3.5 years where both CS went the distance, and the CS percentage predicts 2.5.
What's weird is that the three years are 2003, 2004, and 2020, so they includes both years where a team forced a 7th game after being down 3-0. Since that's happened twice in 39 times, that's definitely unexpected.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2020 16:49:22 GMT -5
Phew is right. I'm glad the Astros didn't win. I'm glad that winning a series when down 3-0 remains exclusive domain of the 2004 Red Sox and that conversely, blowing a 3 game to 0 lead remains the exclusive humiliation of the 2004 Yankees. If another team was going to accomplish that comeback, I'm sure as hell glad it wasn't the cheating Astros. Two other things struck me about all of this. This is the second pennant for the Rays and the second time they absolutely blew the ALCS and survived it anyways. I'm a huge believer in momentum but the Rays bucked that trend twice. Here they blow a 3-0 lead in games but yet recovered to hang on to win Game 7. Of course, most of you recall that the Rays in 2008 were just 7 outs away up 3 games to 1 and leading the Red Sox by 7 runs, yet blew the game anyways and lost Game 6 in Tampa and actually trailed in the 1st inning after a Pedroia HR before Garza settled down, smothered the Red Sox, and a young David Price got a generous strike 3 call on JD Drew to snuff an 8th inning rally before Tampa knocked out the Sox win a 3-1 victory. Those were the situations where devastating losses could have killed them, but somehow they recovered. I suspect (and could be wrong) that the Braves won't be as fortunate tomorrow and everybody will be pointing to the play where Mookie made that shoestring catch which resulted in a DP eventually after a run was taken off the board when it was obvious that Ozuna left too soon. The other thing that struck me was a 2020 managing style thing. Why in the hell do you take out a Charlie Morton who is absolutely cruising and subject yourself to hoping that you can get 10 outs from your bullpen when you don't need to do that??!! Morton was dealing and probably could have gone all 9 innings the way he was going. I get that pitchers aren't normally anywhere near effective the 3rd time around the order (and Morton's numbers show that) - but sometimes it's obvious that a pitcher just HAS it that day. I mean the Astros had to be stoked to see him out of the game and the Rays were one big mistake away from losing the game. Nothing against Anderson or Fairbanks, but when you know your starter is dealing, why take a chance on bringing out multiple pitchers and hoping that they all have their stuff that day? That's a lot to hope for. Or at least shorten the outs needed. I don't see why Morton couldn't have made it through the 7th inning at the very least. Reminds me of what happened to the Dodgers when Roberts removed Rich Hill. Then he needed about a half a dozen pitchers to get the last 8 outs and it turned out they all sucked that day and gave up 9 runs and gave away the series. I really wish managers would ride their horses when it's obvious they have it that day. Such a 2020 thing - the everybody has to pitch stuff. Because he wasn't. He got 4 outs with his first 14 pitches. Then he did it again. Then he got 4 outs with 15 pitches, and then 3 outs with 7 pitches, two of them three-pitch strikeouts. Then he walked the number 9 hitter on four straight pitches. He did get Springer out on 3 pitches, but he took 7 pitches (longest PA of the day) to give up the Altuve infield single, after getting a really generous called strike on his 1-1 pitch. So, unless what you meant by "absolutely cruising" was "starting to falter," you're wrong. No way you let him face Brantley a third time. Brantley had an .840 xBA on his first-inning single. The non-Brantley hitters had averaged .098.
I don't think I'm wrong at all and you can declaratively say so as much as you want and that doesn't change that's it's my opinion he was cruising. Your "evidence" to the contrary is hardly conclusive. He lost the plate for one batter after pounding the strike zone consistently. Then he recovered to quickly dispatch Springer and gave up a swinging bunt single to Altuve. That's hardly a screaming line drive blaring a neon sign saying he's through. If giving up two hits, one of them an infield single in about 65 pitches or whatever it was in 5.2 innings isn't cruising, then I don't know what the hell would be considered cruising. As it was when they pulled him, I started seeing the tweets coming through from other ballplayers questioning the move. Now you need to get 10 outs from your bullpen rather than 6. They barely made it. Anderson and Fairbanks were a helluva lot shakier in their 5 out stints than Morton was in his 17 outs. Think what you want. It's your opinion and obviously Cash agreed with it. Fortunately they had a large working margin for error. But it doesn't make me wrong and you right or vice versa. You're telling me that he had valid reasons. Fine. Reasonable enough. Doesn't mean I agree with them, though.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2020 18:38:28 GMT -5
Because he wasn't. He got 4 outs with his first 14 pitches. Then he did it again. Then he got 4 outs with 15 pitches, and then 3 outs with 7 pitches, two of them three-pitch strikeouts. Then he walked the number 9 hitter on four straight pitches. He did get Springer out on 3 pitches, but he took 7 pitches (longest PA of the day) to give up the Altuve infield single, after getting a really generous called strike on his 1-1 pitch. So, unless what you meant by "absolutely cruising" was "starting to falter," you're wrong. No way you let him face Brantley a third time. Brantley had an .840 xBA on his first-inning single. The non-Brantley hitters had averaged .098.
I don't think I'm wrong at all and you can declaratively say so as much as you want and that doesn't change that's it's my opinion he was cruising. Your "evidence" to the contrary is hardly conclusive. He lost the plate for one batter after pounding the strike zone consistently. Then he recovered to quickly dispatch Springer and gave up a swinging bunt single to Altuve. That's hardly a screaming line drive blaring a neon sign saying he's through. If giving up two hits, one of them an infield single in about 65 pitches or whatever it was in 5.2 innings isn't cruising, then I don't know what the hell would be considered cruising. As it was when they pulled him, I started seeing the tweets coming through from other ballplayers questioning the move. Now you need to get 10 outs from your bullpen rather than 6. They barely made it. Anderson and Fairbanks were a helluva lot shakier in their 5 out stints than Morton was in his 17 outs. Think what you want. It's your opinion and obviously Cash agreed with it. Fortunately they had a large working margin for error. But it doesn't make me wrong and you right or vice versa. You're telling me that he had valid reasons. Fine. Reasonable enough. Doesn't mean I agree with them, though. There is no right or wrong about whether he should have been taken out, which is what you've translated my argument into. But I was arguing that he was in plain, obvious, fact no longer cruising, but beginning to falter. That is is not in dispute.
Over a span of 12 batters from 2 outs in the second, Charlie Morton missed the strike zone (or failed to get a chase outside of it) 7 times in 37 pitches. That registered in your brain as "cruising," quite correctly.
Over the next 3 batters, Charlie Morton missed the strike zone 8 times in 15 pitches. He not only walked his first batter (and walking him on four pitches cannot be spun to make it less of a red flag), he ran his first 3-ball count of the game, which would have been a second walk if not for a gift strike.
The odds against that being random are 75 to 1. [1] It failed to register as "no longer cruising" in your brain, but it did in Kevin Cash's and it did in mine. It might still not register as "no longer cruising" with you, but you can't make an argument to that effect without redefining "cruising."
[1] I picked the starting point of this comparison by seeing how far back I could go and still have just 7 misses. If you go back to the start of the game, the odds are 66 to 1.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 19:09:50 GMT -5
We also don't know the matchup likelihoods with Brantley representing the tying run. Both pitchers were right handed so it wasn't a left/right call.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 19:17:30 GMT -5
WOW two rookie pitchers in a game 7 and May is going on 1 days rest.
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Post by manfred on Oct 18, 2020 20:54:19 GMT -5
Kershaw again lets down the Dodgers. Has any pitcher in baseball had better regular season stats (or even close) and been more useless in the post season. Usually, I view the post season as too small a sample size to tag guus this way, but he seems like a loser.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 18, 2020 21:12:25 GMT -5
1. Riley looked like he was safe at third
2. Big strike out by matzek thought for sure dodgers were gonna score
Add Mookie robbing home runs again
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 21:22:00 GMT -5
Kershaw again lets down the Dodgers. Has any pitcher in baseball had better regular season stats (or even close) and been more useless in the post season. Usually, I view the post season as too small a sample size to tag guus this way, but he seems like a loser. Price before 2018 ? There's hope. ADD: You also have to ask the question, is Roberts using Kershaw optimally ? (I don't know, just a question).
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 18, 2020 21:26:40 GMT -5
Greene has struck out bellinger on 3 pitches but the home plate umpire has missed two pitches
Aj pollack hits into a double play to make up for the umpires atrocious strike zone
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Post by manfred on Oct 18, 2020 21:55:06 GMT -5
Kershaw again lets down the Dodgers. Has any pitcher in baseball had better regular season stats (or even close) and been more useless in the post season. Usually, I view the post season as too small a sample size to tag guus this way, but he seems like a loser. Price before 2018 ? There's hope. ADD: You also have to ask the question, is Roberts using Kershaw optimally ? (I don't know, just a question). But Kershaw had a long record, and he’s over the hill. I doubt he redeems himself.
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